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Economic OutlookJune 2014Economic Policy Division

1U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2015Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale$15.0$9.0$18.0$12.5$6.5Forecast2U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q1 20142009 Dollars3Comparing Recessions

TroughGDP Loss (Peak to Trough)Duration of RecessionGDP Growth in the following yearGDP Growth in the following 3 yearsMonths from end of recession until we reached prior employment peakMonths from end of recession until GDP reached potentialMay 1954 (II)-2.5 (%)10 (months)7.9 (%)4.0132April 1958 (II)-3.189.64.2124February 1961 (I)-0.5107.55.81010November 1970 (IV)-0.2114.55.265March 1975 (I)-3.2166.24.5913November 1982 (IV)-2.6167.75.81220March 1991(I)-1.482.63.22325November 2001 (IV)+0.781.92.93913June 2009 (II)-4.7182.52.259NA4Real GDP OutlookReal Personal Consumption ExpendituresPersonal Consumption OutlookReal Disposable Personal Income7Household Net Worth8Household Balance SheetHousehold AssetsHousehold Liabilities9Consumer Debt Service10Domestic Bank Lending11Consumer Confidence12Auto & Light Truck Sales13Housing Market TrendsHousing StartsMedian Home PricesHome SalesHousing Affordability Index14Housing Market TrendsHousing InventoryMortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates15Mortgage OriginationsPurchasesRefinances16Real Business Fixed Investment17Investment DriversIndustrial ProductionCapacity UtilizationOur forecast for gradual improvement in business investment is based in part on recent gradual improvement in the level of industrial production, which has surpassed its prerecession level.

Capacity utilization remains 1.7 percent below its long-run average, suggesting an increase in business investment may be sector specific rather than widespread. 18 Sector IndicatorsATA Truck Tonnage IndexTotal Rail CarloadingsBoxboard ProductionMonthly Leasing and Finance Index19Domestic Bank Lending20Business ConfidenceISM Manufacturing Index21Oil22Natural Gas23Labor MarketTotal Nonfarm JobsInitial Unemployment ClaimsUnemployment Rate May 6.3%Household Employment24Civilian Participation RateDuration of UnemploymentPart-time for Economic ReasonsDiscouraged WorkersLabor Market25Employment-Population RatioPercent 26U.S. TradeReal Net Exports of Goods and ServicesU.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate27Eurozone Growth and JobsSource: Oxford Economics28Eurozone Monetary PolicySource: Oxford Economics29European GrowthSource: Oxford Economics30United Kingdom Growth and JobsSource: Oxford Economics31Source: Oxford EconomicsEmerging MarketsReal GDP32Interest Rate SpreadsRisk SpreadMoody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond YieldYield Spread10-Year Treasury 3 month TreasuryTED Spread3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury33Fed PolicyBank Assets and Liabilities34Deficit to GDPCBOs Baseline Deficit(April 2014)

Budget Deficit35Government Baseline Outside Debt(CBOs Baseline April 2014)Debt to GDPDebt36Government Gross Debt(CBOs Baseline April 2014)Gross Debt to GDPGross Debt37Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP)

Source: CBO Baseline (April 2014)38 Discretionary Entitlements Net InterestGovernment Outlays

39 Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other SpendingMandatory Spending

Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending40FY 2013 Revenues and OutlaysOutlaysSource: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

41FY 2024 Revenues and OutlaysOutlaysSource: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

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Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes Government Revenues by Source

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