Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis · Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the...
Transcript of Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis · Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the...
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Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis
Prof. Dr. Klaus W. Wellershoff
November 26th, 2013
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Act I
2
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
World: GDP Growth Rates
−6
−3
0
3
6
9
12
Cha
nge
YoY
in p
erce
nt
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Advanced economies
BRIC
3
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Trend Growth Switzerland
Actual GDP and trend
70
80
90
100
110
Loga
rithm
ic s
cale
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Switzerland
4
60
80
100
120
Loga
rithm
ic s
cale
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trend Real GDP
USA
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Trend Growth USA
Actual GDP and trend
60
80
100
120
Loga
rithm
ic s
cale
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trend Real GDP
USA
5
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Trend Growth Eurozone
Actual GDP and trend
70
80
90
100
110
Loga
rithm
ic s
cale
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Eurozone
60
80
100
120
Loga
rithm
ic s
cale
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trend Real GDP
USA
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Outputgap & Real Estate Prices
Current outputgaps and house price-to-income ratios
Deutschland
Frankreich
Italien
Japan
Spanien
Schweiz
Grossbritannien
USA
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
Prod
uktio
nslü
cke
in P
roze
nt
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160Hauspreis/Einkommensquotient in 2007
7
Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners
Ou
tpu
tgap
in p
erce
nt
House price-to-income ratio in 2007
Germany
Switzerland
France
Spain UK
Italy
USA
Japan
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
House Prices over Income
Major economies
60
80
100
120
140
160
Haus
prei
s / E
inko
mm
ensin
dex
(Dur
chsc
hnitt
= 1
00)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
OECDUSAGrossbritannienSpanienSchweiz
8
Ho
use
pri
ce-t
o-i
nco
me
ind
ex (h
isto
rica
l ave
rag
e =
100)
0
10
20
30
40
0 2var6
OECDUSAUnited KingdomSpainSwitzerland
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Outputgap and Fiscal Policy
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Verä
nder
ung
der P
rodu
ktio
nslü
cke
−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6Veränderung des Strukturdefizits
9
Quelle: OECD, Wellershoff & Partners
Ch
ang
e in
ou
tpu
tgap
in p
erce
nt
(2009-2
012)
Change of the structural deficit in percent (2009-2012)
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Structural Deficit 2013
Major economies
10
−10
−5
0
Stru
ktur
defiz
it in
% v
om B
IP 2
013
Japa
n
Gro
ssbr
itann
ien
US
A
Spa
nien
Fran
krei
ch
Öst
erre
ich
Eur
ozon
e
Deu
tsch
land
Italie
n
Sch
wei
zStr
uct
ura
l def
icit
in p
erce
nt
of
GD
P 2
013
Jap
an
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
US
A
Sp
ain
Fran
ce
Au
stri
a
Eu
ro Z
on
e
Ger
man
y
Ital
y
Sw
itze
rlan
d
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Act II
11
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Outputgap 2013
Major economies
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
Germany Japan Switzerland USA Eurozone France Italy UK
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
World: Trade & Global Business Sentiment
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
Cha
nge
YoY
in p
erce
nt
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World trade
Global business sentiment (fitted values)
13
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Public Debt
Major economies
40
60
80
100
120
Brut
to S
taat
sver
schu
ldun
g in
Pro
zent
vom
BIP
2005 2010 2015 2020
Grossbritannien
USA
Eurozone
14
Gro
ss p
ub
lic d
ebt
in p
erce
nt
of
GD
P
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
0 2var6
United Kingdom
USA
Eurozone
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Central Banks‘ Balance Sheets
Volumes in local currencies
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
June
200
6 =
100
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Fed
ECB
BoJ
BoE
SNB
Fed current QE path
BoJcurrent QE path
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Currency War?
16
−20
−10
0
10
20
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Trade weighted deviation from PPP
USD
−30−20−10
01020
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
GBP
−20
−10
0
10
20
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
EUR
−20
−10
0
10
20
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
CHF
−40
−20
0
20
40
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
JPY
−10
0
10
20
Perc
ent
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
CNY
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Inflation in Advanced Economies
USA
−8
−4
0
4
8
Proz
ent
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US Produktionslücke
US Abweichung von Trendinflation
17
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
Cha
nge
YoY
in p
erce
nt
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
World trade
Global business sentiment (fitted values)0
10
20
30
40
0 2var6
US OutputgapUS Deviation from Trend InflationUnited KingdomSpainSwitzerland
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Inflation in Emerging Markets & Advanced Economies
18
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cha
nge
YoY
in p
erce
nt
2000 2005 2010 2015
Advanced economies
BRIC (rhs)
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Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Inflation Switzerland
Expected and actual inflation
19
−2
0
2
4
6
8
Proz
ent J
/J
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Inflation
Inflationserwartungen
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cha
nge
YoY
in p
erce
nt
2000 2005 2010 2015
Advanced economies
BRIC (rhs)
0
10
20
30
40
0 2var6
Inflation
Expected Inflation
United Kingdom
Spain
Switzerland
-
Quelle: Thomson Datastream, Wellershoff & Partners
Increasing Interest Rates
Interest Rates and Spreads of European Bonds
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
Inte
rest
Rat
es in
Per
cent
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Spread Spain−Germany Spread Italy−Germany Spain
Italy France Germany
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Act III
21
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22
Monthly Perspectives 12 Ausgaben pro Jahr
seit 2010
Weltwirtschafts- und Finanzmarktausblick
Wellershoff & Partners
AG
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