Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges...

John E. Silvia, Chief Economist

August 19, 2014

Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges The Coca-Cola Bottlers’ Association

The Coca-Cola Bottlers’ Association 2

Where Are We Now?

Source:

Five benchmarks for good decision making

Inflation Interest Rates

Growth

Profits The Dollar


Expectations for the Future

Wells Fargo vs. Consensus

How do we differ from consensus?

Sustained-trend growth

Employment—cyclical and structural change

Still cautious on consumer segments

Housing improving—multifamily especially

State and local governments—still restructuring

Unsustainable long-run fiscal policy

Europe exits recession

China growth stable at 7 percent plus


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 4.0%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.4%

Forecast

Upswing 2H 2014: One-off or Sustained?

A poor start to 2014 should limit full-year growth to about

1.9 percent, but should pick up again in 2015

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

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-6%

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0%

2%

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6%

8%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers vs. Government Spending

Final Sales to Private Dom. Purch.: Q2 @ 2.8%

Gov. Consumption & Investment: Q2 @ -0.7%

Both series are Year-over-Year Percent Changes

Private Sector vs. Public Sector

The economy is rebalancing back to private sector demand



70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIBOverall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100

Overall Situation: Q3 2014 @ 49.0 (Left Axis)

Small Business Optimism: Q2 2014 @ 95.6 (Right Axis)

Small Businesses

Small Businesses: A full recovery in small business

optimism is still distant, taxes and regulation the two big issues

Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

ISM Manufacturing Composite IndexDiffusion Index

ISM Manufacturing Index: Jul @ 57.1

12-Month Moving Average: Jul @ 55.3

Manufacturing

Large, Global Businesses: Recent pickup in activity

Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Initial Claims for UnemploymentSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Aug-2 @ -13.7%

Initial Claims: Aug-2 @ 289.0 Thousand

4-Week Moving Average: Aug-2 @ 293.5 Thousand

52-Week Moving Average: Aug-2 @ 326.0 Thousand

Initial Unemployment Claims: Cyclical

Signaling continued, moderate job gains ahead

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Employment-Population Ratio16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted

Employment-Population Ratio: Jul @ 59.0

Employment: Structural

Structural Change: A much lower base to support

growth and spending, especially for entitlements



110

113

116

119

122

125

128

125

128

131

134

137

140

143

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Full-Time vs. Total EmploymentMillions

Total Employees: Jul @ 139.0 M (Left Axis)

Total Full-Time Employees: Jul @ 118.5 M (Right Axis)

Full Time: 3.4 M Below Prerecession Peak

Total: 0.6 M Above Prerecession Peak


We still have a ways to go before recovering all of the full-time jobs lost in the most recent

recession



52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Labor Force Participation RateSeasonally Adjusted

Female: Jul @ 56.9%

Male: Jul @ 69.3%

Employment: Participation Rates by Gender

Participation rates for both men and women have declined—a

new path for women



2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted

U-6 Unemployment Rate: Jul @ 12.2%

U-3 Unemployment Rate: Jul @ 6.2%


U-3 reverting to 6.37 percent long-run average, but U-6 is not

mean-reverting. Employment growth is mean-reverting at

1.28 percent.



-8%

-6%

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-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

PCE - CAGR: Q2 @ 2.5%

PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.3%

Forecast

Consumer Spending

Subpar recovery suggests slower consumer spending and lower

state sales tax revenues compared to the past



-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Real Disposable IncomeBoth Series are 3-Month Moving Averages

Real Disposable Income, 3-Month Annual Rate: Jun @ 3.8%

Real Disposable Income, Yr/Yr % Change: Jun @ 2.6%

Income: Modest Growth

Income growth remains lackluster compared to previous

economic expansions



55.3% 51.6% 51.7%47.5% 46.8%

10.2%11.3% 11.0%

11.8% 11.3%

6.9%6.7% 8.1%

7.7% 8.8%

15.5% 18.7% 15.6%

13.0% 13.2%

0.8% 0.6% 2.0%

3.0% 3.9%

11.3% 11.2% 11.6%17.0% 16.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 Past 12

Months

Personal Income SourcesTransfers Rental Income Receipts on Assets

Proprietors Income Supplements to Wages Wages & Salary

Personal Income: Varied Sources

Wages and salaries make up about half of personal income as

transfer payments make up a greater share of income over

time



0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Lowest 20

percent

Second 20

percent

Third 20

percent

Fourth 20

percent

Highest 20

percent

Income Growth by QuintilePercent Change from 1984 to 2012, After-Tax Income

Income Growth: Different Rates

After-tax nominal income has increased the most for the lowest and highest income

households since the mid-1980s



-3.4%

1.2%

3.5%

5.6%

4.7%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Lowest 20

percent

Second 20

percent

Third 20

percent

Fourth 20

percent

Highest 20

percent

Income Growth by QuintilePercent Change in Nominal After-Tax Income 2007-2012

Income Growth: Rising at Different Rates

Since before the recession, income growth has been clearly

concentrated in the upper quintiles



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort by Income6-Week Moving Averages

Income Between $25K and $39.9K: Aug-03 @ 31.4



Income Over $100K: Aug-03 @ 57.7

Consumer Confidence: By Income Group

Confidence improves with income, but remains historically

low across all income ranges

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Consumer Confidence by Household Income1985=100; 3-Month Moving Averages

Under $15,000: Jul @ 55.1$15,000-$24,999: Jul @ 60.2$25,000-$34,999: Jul @ 67.1$35,000-$49,999: Jul @ 80.3$50,000 and Over: Jul @ 109.3

Consumer Confidence: By Income Group

Confidence improves with income, but remains historically

low across all income ranges

Source: Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


$0

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$60

$70

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$90

$100

$110

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$10

$20

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$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Household AssetsTrillions of Dollars

Financial Assets: Q1 @ $67.2 Trillion

Household Real Estate Holdings: Q1 @ $20.2 Trillion

Other Tangible Assets: Q1 @ $8.2 Trillion

Household Finances: Rebound in Financial Wealth

Overall wealth has rebounded since the financial crisis, driven

by gains in financial markets

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-3%

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1%

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9%

-3%

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6%

7%

8%

9%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Food Service & Drinking Places SalesYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average

Food Service & Drinking Places: Jun @ 5.0%

12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 3.5%

Retail Sales

Sales at food service and drinking places remains at historically low levels after

rebounding nicely several years after the recession



0%

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45%

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40%

45%

Lowest 20

percent

Second 20

percent

Third 20

percent

Fourth 20

percent

Highest 20

percent

Consumption of Food at Home vs. AwayShare of Consumption By Income Quintile, 2012

Food at Home

Food Away

Consumer Spending: By Income Quintile

Food away from home is disproportionately consumed by

the highest income earners



9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Household Debt Service RatioDebt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

DSR: Q1 @ 9.9%

Household Finances: Rebalancing Debt Exposure

Debt service has returned to more sustainable rates

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

"Jobs Hard to Get" vs. Unemployment RateConference Board Consumer Confidence

Unemployment Rate: Jul @ 6.2% (Left Axis)

Jobs Hard to Get: Jul @ 30.7% (Right Axis)

Consumer Confidence – Jobs Hard to Get

A high percentage of consumers view jobs as “hard to get”

compared to mid-cycle 1990s, 2000s decade

Source: Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-60%

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-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

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30%

40%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Ex-AircraftSeries Are 3-Month Moving Averages

3-Month Annual Rate: Jun @ 6.7%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jun @ 2.6%

New Orders

Signs of life appeared early in this

recovery in capital goods orders—

now the slowdown



0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

U.S. Housing StartsMillions of Units

Forecast

Housing

Continued improvement ahead



2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12

Median Home Size vs. Average Household SizeSquare Feet; Number of Persons

Median Square Footage: 2013 @ 2,384 (Left Axis)

Number of Persons per Household: 2013 @ 2.54 (Right Axis)

Housing Demographics

Secular Shift? Households are living in smaller homes with more people since the recession, but longer-term

trends may win out



12.7%

29.4%

26.9%

20.1%

16.2%

14.8%

14.1%

11.6%

11.2%

10.7%

9.8%

8.7%

8.6%

7.4%

7.1%

25.0%

65.7%

49.3%

51.8%

26.1%

20.6%

18.0%

23.6%

32.9%

16.4%

19.6%

14.1%

19.5%

22.0%

21.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

National

Nevada

Florida

Arizona

Maryland

New Hampshire

New Jersey

Virginia

California

Massachusetts

South Carolina

North Carolina

Washington

Colorado

OregonQ1-2014

Q1-2011

Negative Equity Share By StateAs a Percent of Mortgages Outstanding

Housing

Negative equity in homes has contributed to foreclosures and

reduced labor mobility, but much improvement has been

seen since 3 years ago

Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


Inflation & Interest Rates

Inflation Interest Rates

Growth

Profits The Dollar

Core Inflation

Monetary Policy

Yield Curve

Real Interest Rates

Wage-Price Spiral

Market Expectations

Key Drivers

The Coca-Cola Bottlers’ Association 30 30

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE DeflatorYear-over-Year Percent Change

PCE Deflator: May @ 1.8%

"Core" PCE Deflator: May @ 1.5%

Inflation: Rising – Not Low

Inflation remains contained but has begun to ramp up recently



-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Food - At Home vs. Away from HomeYear-over-Year Percent Change

Food Away From Home: Jun @ 2.2%

Food at Home: Jun @ 2.4%

Inflation: By Location

Prices in food at home has risen above that of food away from

home in the past year



-8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40%

Shortening and cooking oils

Roasted coffee

Pasta products

Processed young chickens

Processed fruits and vegetables

Soft drinks

Bakery products

Confectionery end products

Fresh fruits and melons

Milled rice

Fresh and dry vegetables

Finfish and shellfish

Dairy products

Beef and veal

Processed turkeys

Eggs for fresh use

Pork

Finished Consumer FoodsYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Avgerage

June 2014

Inflation: By Good

Inflation for soft drinks and confectionary end products have risen slightly over the past year



-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Food at Home & Beverage PricesYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Average

Food at Home: Jun @ 2.3%

Non-Alcoholic Beverages: Jun @ -1.3%

Inflation

Consumer price growth for food and beverages has picked up in

past months



$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Corn Spot PricesDollars per Bushel, Weekly Averages

Corn: Aug-08 @ $3.53

Corn

Corn prices were elevated in 2013 but have recently fallen

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

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$30.00

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$40.00

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sugar PriceDollars per Pound

Sugar: Aug-08 @ $16.23

Sugar

Sugar prices have continued a downward trend



$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

AluminumDollars per Metric Ton

Aluminum: Aug-08 @ $1,968

Aluminum

Prices for aluminum, which remained relatively flat in 2013, have picked up slightly in 2014



0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Inflation and the Real YieldPercent

5-Year Treasury Note Yield: Aug @ 1.7%

Median Inflation Expect. for 5-10 Yrs: Jul @ 2.6%

1996-2009 Average Median Inflation Expectation for 5-10 Years: 2.9%

March 2008

Bear Stearns

October 2013

Debt Ceiling

Raised

Inflation vs. Yields: Negative Real Yields – Three Non-market Buyers

Inflation expectations exceed nominal returns, suppressed interest rates, not free market

Source: Federal Reserve Board, University of Michigan and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11

Corporate ProfitsAs a Percent of GDP

Rest of World: Q1 @ 2.4%

Domestic: Q1 @ 9.1%

NAFTA

China

Joins

WTO

Corporate Profits: Increasing Role of Global Profits

Profits as a percentage of GDP are historically high and are

being boosted by profits earned abroad



-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Federal Budget BalancePercentage of GDP

Budget Balance: Q2 @ -3.1%

Forecast

Fiscal Policy: Difficult Choices/Chronic Imbalance

The nation has entered uncharted waters in fiscal policy—no balance at 2.75

percent GDP growth

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

The Coca-Cola Bottlers’ Association 40 40

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real Government Consumption & InvestmentBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr % Change

Government Consumption & Investment: Q2 @ 1.6%

Government Consumption & Investment: Q2 @ -0.7%

Fiscal Policy: Restructuring Continues

Over the past year the government sector has

continued to be a drag on GDP as state and local governments

restructure



8.2%

6.2%

5.2%

5.1%

4.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.7%

2.2%

2.0%

1.0%

0.8%

0.1%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

China

Indonesia

India

Turkey

Singapore

Russia

Korea

South Africa

United States

Brazil

United Kingdom

Japan

Euro area

GDP Growth Post-Recession Average Annual Percent Change for 2011-2013

Global Growth

The global recovery is being driven by emerging markets

Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Wamco, Inc. 42

Potential Challenges to the Outlook

Outlook Risks

What are the primary risks to the outlook?

Tighter monetary policy brings questions for the dollar, inflation and interest rate outlook

Fiscal policy: tax increases and/or spending cuts face unsustainable long-run outlook

Housing: unable to sustain growth on its own if rates rise?

European debt crisis weighs on global growth and global credit allocation over the long-run

Weak employment growth means less-than-expected real income and spending growth for some consumer segments


U.S. Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2.7 1.8 4.5 3.5 -2.1 4.0 1.7 3.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.9

Personal Consumption 3.6 1.8 2.0 3.7 1.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.6

Inflation Indicators 2

PCE Deflator 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.1

Consumer Price Index 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 2.0 2.3

Industrial Production 1 4.2 1.9 2.5 4.9 3.9 5.5 3.7 4.3 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.1 4.7

Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 3.1 3.9 4.9 4.7 -4.8 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 11.4 4.2 1.7 4.3

Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.2 77.5 75.2 76.4 76.9 75.9 77.3 77.5 70.9 73.5 75.9 76.9 78.7

Unemployment Rate 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.9 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.7

Housing Starts 4 0.95 0.86 0.88 1.03 0.93 0.98 1.02 1.07 0.61 0.78 0.92 1.00 1.12

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.63

Conventional Mortgage Rate 3.57 4.07 4.49 4.46 4.34 4.16 4.35 4.35 4.46 3.66 3.98 4.30 4.46

10 Year Note 1.87 2.52 2.64 3.04 2.73 2.53 2.75 2.80 2.78 1.80 2.35 2.70 3.00

Forecast as of: August 6, 20141 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

ForecastActual

2014

ForecastActual

2013

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Appendix


Recent Special Commentary

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our

website: http://www.wellsfargo.com/

economics

Date Title Authors

August-05 Taiwanese Real GDP Growth Strengthened in Q2 Bryson

August-05 Slow Growth in Sweden Equals Risk of Deflation Bryson

August-01 Hot or Not? Metro Areas Across the U.S. Vitner & Wolf

August-01 Signs of Firming in Canadian Economy Quinlan

August-01 Argentina Elected for Default Again Alemán

July-31 Interest Rate Weekly: Notes on the Fed's Exit Strategy, Part 1 Silvia, Vitner & Brown

July-31 The State of Agriculture Vitner

July-29 Florida Consumer Sentiment Rises Solidly in July Vitner & Wolf

July-25 British GDP Growth Remained Strong in Q2-2014 Bryson

July-24 Russian Economic & Financial Leverage on the West Bryson

July-24 Are American Wages About to Accelerate? Bryson & House

July-23 Will Credit Help the U.S. Consumer in H2-2014? Alemán & Griffiths

July-23 Financing Growth: Success at the Corporate Level Silvia, Vitner & Brown

July-22 Is the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance a Siren Song? Quinlan, House & Griffiths

July-21 Fall Wil Likely Bring More Fiscal Follies Silvia & Brown

July-18 California Employment Conditions: June 2014 Vitner & Wolf

July-18 Florida Once Again Leads the Nation in Job Growth Vitner & Wolf

July-18 Job Growth 'Moderates' In Texas During June Vitner & Wolf

July-18 Minnesota Economic Outlook: July 2014 Vitner, Wolf & Miller

July-18 Growth in China Appears to Be Stabilizing Bryson

July-16 Lower Mortgage Rates but Where Is the Demand? Silvia, Vitner & Brown

July-16 Credit, Interest Rates and Policy Inconsistency in the Post-

Great Recession Era: Part UmSilvia

July-15 Cleveland: Things Are Starting to Look Up Vitner & Wolf

July-15 Northeastern States: 2014 Economic Outlook Vitner, Wolf & Miller

July-09 Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2014 Vitner & Khan

July-08 Middle of the Curve Moves on Better Economic Data Silvia, Vitner & Brown

July-07 Reaching the Tipping Point: Tough Fiscal Policy Choices Ahead Silvia & Brown

July-02 Disappointing GDP Growth, Little Impact on Interest Rates? Silvia, Vitner & Brown

July-01 Better Credit Fundamentals: Rise in Overall Quality Silvia & Miller

June-30 Will Argentina Default on Its Debt Again? Alemán

June-27 Interest Rate Weekly: Is the Fed Behind the Curve? Silvia, Vitner & Brown

June-24 Japan and the Third Arrow of Abenomics Quinlan

June-24 Florida Economic Outlook: June 2014 Vitner, Wolf & Miller

June-24 Arizona Economic Outlook: June 2014 Vitner, Wolf & Miller

June-20 California Employment Conditions: May 2014 Vitner & Wolf

June-20 Florida Employment Declines in May Vitner & Wolf

June-20 Texas Posts Largest Monthly Payroll Gain in Nation Vitner & Wolf

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Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

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John E. Silvia … ....................... … [email protected]

Global Head of Research and Economics Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected]

Global Head of Research & Economics

Chief Economist

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . [email protected]

Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… …[email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]

Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]

Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………[email protected]

Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . [email protected]

Senior Economists

Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Economists

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………[email protected]

Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist [email protected]

Sarah Watt House, Economist …………… …………[email protected]

Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … [email protected]

Michael T. Wolf, Economist ………………… … [email protected]

Economic Analysts

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Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges...

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