Economic Indicators: January 1976 - FRASER · 2018. 11. 7. · January 1976 Prepared for the Joint...

94th Congress, 2d Session

January 1976

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1976

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT

(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, ChairmanWRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman

SENATEJOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois)ROBERT TAFT, JR. (Ohio)PAUL J. FANNIN (Arizona)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESRICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)GARRY BROWN (Michigan)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive 'DirectorLOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist

RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, General Counsel

COUNCIL OF ADVISERSALAN GREENSPAN, Chairman

PAUL W. MAcAVOYBURTON G. MALKIEL

Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT Congress; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

"Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copyor by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:

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WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advan-tage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscriptionprice is $3.60 additional per year.

ii


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product increased $44.7 billion or at a12.2 percent annual rate, reflecting an inflation rate of 6.5 percent and an increase of 5.4 percent in real GNP.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)1,800

1,400

1,400

t,200

BILLIONS (X DOLLARS {RATIO SCALE)1,800

1,400

1,400

1,000

80®

1969

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1970 197T 1972 1974 1975 197$

COUNCtl. OF KONOMIC ADVISERS

[BUlions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1965196619671968......1969197019711972197319741975 »1974: !_..

!!___III..IV_.

1975: I__ .II—III..IV *.

Grrossna-

tionalprod-uct

688. 1753.0796.3868. 5935.5982.4

1, 063. 41, 171. 11, 306. 31, 406. 91, 499. 01, 370. 91, 391. 01, 424. 41, 441. 31, 433. 61, 460. 61, 528. 51, 573. 2

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tionex-

pend-itures

430.2464.8490.4535.9579.7618. 8668.2733.0808. 5885.9963.2849.5877.8907.7908.4926.4950.3977.4998.7

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

112.0124.5120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.5212.2183.3218.4212.7207.6210.3168.7161.4194.9208.3

Exportgooc

Netex-

ports

7.65. 14.92.31.83.91.6

— 3.37.47.7

21.515.64.03.28.2

17.324.222. 122.4

a and imps and sen

Ex-ports

39.542. 845.649.954.762.565.672.7

101.51442147.3133. 1141.6148.6153.6148.2140.7148.5151.9

orts ofdees

Im-ports

32.037.740.647.752.958.564.075.994.2

136.5125.8117.5137.6145.5145.3130.9116.4126.4129.4

Go\

Total

138.4158.7180.2198.7207.9218.9233.7253.1269.9301.1330.9287.5296. 5305.93144321.23247334 1343.8

rernment

Total

67.378.890.998.097.595.696.2

102.1102.0111.7123. 1106. 1ioa9113.6118.2119.4119.21242129.8

purchasesservices

Federal

Na-tional

de-fense *

49.460.371.576.976.373.570.273.573.477.484074875.878.480.581.482. 184987.4

of goods

Non-de-

fense

17.818.519.521.221.222. 126.02&62ae34339.231.433.035.137.738.037. 139.342.3

and

Stateandlocal

71.179.889.3

100.7110.4123.2137. 5151.0ieao189.4207.8181.4187.6192.3196.3201.9205.5209.92141

Finalsales

678. 6738.7786.2860.8926.2978.6

1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 288. 81, 397. 21, 513. 21, 356. 11, 381. 71, 420. 01, 430. 91, 458. 41, 490. 21, 530. 61, 573. 4

* This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,shown on p. 36.

NOTE.—Series revised. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976,

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis;


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS®£ a* annual

1965..--.1966ZZZZZZ..

1969,.

1971. ..1972 ...

....

1975 »

1974:1...nm...17..

1975:1...IIm_17*..

Grosenationalproduct

925.99810

1,007. 71, 051 81,078.8

1,075.31* 107. 51, 171 11*233.41,210.7lf 186. 4

1.-228.71* 217. 21, 2ia2I,18a8

•1,158.6i, i6a i1,20151* 217, 4

P^senaleoa-

tionexpead-ftureB

ssaissa i60a2633.4655.466a 96919733.076a3759,876ae76ao763.2767.274a9

752,37641771677a2

—•*resi-

dential

95.6ioaiioasioao1143naolOa 0nas1313127.5112.4

1345129.9125.0120.8

115.2nasnaeiiao

43.2sas37.242.843. .24a 4S2.262.0mi447sae49.147.14413as33.6340sao40.7

_«.

Changein bum-ness in-Tente-

rids

113ia712.0a 7

iae43aea4

lao7.7

— ia i12.4as427,6

-19.0— 2a 7

— 8'.2

l&xpm

N-t

a2433.5

— 4-13

14-.6

-a 37.2

iae2asia715.315. 117.4

2152492a 5243

«r>rts el gcad service

Exports

49,1516542sas62.267. 167.972.787.697.6m4m.i99,59a 995.7

90.7sas9a s93,4

•cdsm

Imp«te

41047,3sa 7sa 963,565.7eas7&9sa 48106a979.58428197as69.262. 067.369. 1

©ovexi«

209.6229, 324a 3259.225a 725a 2249.42sai25^2.52543257.4

2540255.0254725a6

25^1254925a 7261 1

s

ioaslias125.3128.31218na7103. 9102L196.195.0942

94794795.7947

93.792.494995.9

of

Stateandlocal

109.1nasi2a iisa 91349139.5145.51510isas159.3163.2

159.3160.2159,0isa91614162.5163.8165.2

Final__,!__Bm&i

91469643995.7

i 043. 11,068.2lf 071 01,100.91, 161 71, 217. 31, 203. 01, 19a 5

1, 216. 31, 2ia 41,206.01? 179, 3

1, 177. 6

l) 202. 4ls 217. 2

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1972 = 100]

Period

1965™.—1966.......1967 „.> ......1968... ........1969 ..„ ...1970 _ ........1971 „1972 .._.1973 „„ ....1974..,. .1975*... ..

I._...._..n.._.-..rn ....17.........

!..„„. ..II -....-...m .-.«.«._I7»«. «.

Grossnationalproduct

74327a76n.m82.57^72913696.02

1CK). 00105.92116. 2012a 35

111. 5811428117. 70121. 45

123. 74125. 04127.21129.22

Persona]

Total

77.179,3818846sas92,59ae

ioao105.5nae125.6

1118115.0lias121 3

123.11244126.7i2as

L eonsumj

DoraJblegoods

85.685.787.490.793. 195.59ao

ioao1017ioa4nas103.2ioa6110.41140

1143na3117.4na9

>tion expc

Non-dnrablegoods

77.3sai81985.389.49ae9ae

ioaoioao1240isae118.2122.4126.0.

,

13101319135,213a2

aiditures

Sarv^ices

7437as7assaosaims95.8

ioao1046112.71214

ioa911131142116.4

119,0120.2122.2124.4

Grossdom

inv^

Nonr^-Ideatial

fixed

7457as79.382.6sae9139a4

ioao1040nao132.3

ioa5112,9nas125, 0

129.61318132,6135.2

privateestie}ment

Resi-dentialfixed

72.374677.0«X787.7§ae949

100.0nae122.1133.5

117.4120.71249126.7

131.6132.3132.5137,0

Expoiimports

and sc

Exports

sas82.884085.387.993. 19ae

100.0nao147.8162.9

135. 6142.3153.410a4

163,5162,0163.6162.7

is andof goodsjrviees

Imports

7ao79.7saisa983.389. 19as

100.0117. 1ieaeisao147.9163.4177.7185.6

189.1187.8187.8187,3

Governn<

and s€

Federal

67.07ai72.67a480.0sa492.6

ioaoloai117.6130.6

112. 11149nae1248

127.3m.9i3a§135.3

lent pur->f goodsarvices

Stateand local

65.16a47Z576.9819sas945

100,0107.5na9127.3

113,8117,1121012a§

125,112a4I2a2129.6

re-?^ .̂ See Survey of Current Wi&


BY OFof a lengthening of the workweek, erf employees the

t97§ quarterly Increase in the last of the

MOO

1,200

MOO

V»o

aoo

600

400..

140

120

100

30

60 I I T

1968• SEASOHMKT

SOMtOh DtP>^A»tKf OF COMMERCS

CORPORATE moms WFTHINVENTORY VALUATION AND

"CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENTS

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

800

600

,400

140

120

ICO

m .

1976

COUNCtt. OF ADVISERS

1965——1966——1967-.—.——1968——1969.... — .—1970— —1971. — .—1972........-..—1973- — — — ..----1974- — — _— —

... — —1 ...... —II . ....Ill — _rv. — —i...........iiin....... ..

* con.

[

ttaoalincome

655. 8714.4767.9798.4

1951. 9

1, 067. 31, 141. 11, 209. 5

1, 122. 31, 129. 61, 151. 31, 161. 3

1, 155, 21, 180. 81, 232. 5

£015eo o.

Billions o

Com-pensa-tion of

ploy-w»

439,3471.9519. 8571. 4609, 2650. 3715. I797. 7873, C921. 4

843. 9863,, C886, 3898, 1

897, 1905,4928. 2954. 9

•e Bt

£ dollars;

Propruacom

inventortion

consuladjust

Farm

12.613.612.112.013.9ia §14 318.032,4

33.722. 321.924 6

21. 020. 129. 328.2

(Sss al'•tifi-ezs.

quarterly

fetors'e withy valua--[nptionments

Non-farm

44 146. 748.951452.351253,4sa i59.3sa 5§a 759. 359.560,259.0

58.6K« 558, 7

S3 p, 4.)

3771975.

data at m

"R 1Jttentalincome

withcapital

eon-sump-tion

adjust-ment

17, 118.219.418.618. 118. 620. 121. 521.32LO2L 1

21. 121,020.920.9

20. 520. 922.0

&>•

msonafly

Corpoi1and

Total

77,182,579.385,881467.977,292, 1

100. 2913

102.1

99.694, 389.282.0

78. 996,6na i

adjusted a

mte profiticapital co

Profitsvalualand i

eonsiim

Total

7^3rae75, 682. 177.966. 476. 989.698. 693.6

108. 3100. 896. 092.086. 183,4.

10L 6119.6

of Co,

kunual rat

3 with invnsumptio

i invtton adjusprithout csption adji

Profitsbefore

tax

75.280.777.385.683.471 582.096.2

117.0182, 1lias

129. 6146, 7123.9

97,1ioa 2129, 5

smncree, Bui

es]

entory van adjustm

entorytmentipitalistment

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-1.9-2,1-1.7— 3.4— 5.5—5. 1— 5.0-6.6

— ia4— 38.5— 11,5

—28.0— 33. 7— 54. 7-37.7

— 13. 7-8,6—9.9

— 15.8

<s"

illationents

Capitaleon-

sump-

adjust-ment

asas3, 73, 73. 51. 5. 3

2. 51, 6

—a syy

1 **f

-~ 9 *?"—A »

—4. 2

-4.5-5. e-6. 5— 8. 6

AitaJys

Netinterest

18.521924.326,830.837.542,847,056.370,781 S

64.868. 772,776,778.779.782, 285. 7

3


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $5.2 billion (annual rafe) in December, bringing the rise for 1975 to $91.3 billion or 7.9 percentLabor income, personal interest income, and transfer payments increased in December while farm proprietors' incomeand dividends declined.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS1,400

1,200

1,000

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

1968 1976

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19681969197019711972197319741975*

1974: Dec1975: Jan

FebMarAprMay...June

JulyAugSeptOctNovDec*

Totalpersonalincome

685.2745.8801. 3859. 1942. 5

1, 054. 31, 154. 71, 246. 01, 200. 41, 202. 61, 203. 21, 205. 01, 209. 01, 217. 21, 245. 21, 244. 01, 262. 41, 278. 71, 287. 41, 295. 91, 301. 1

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments l

469. 5514. 6546. 5579. 4633. 8701.0763. 6801.6782.0

782. 1779. 1781. 7782. 7787.4792. 7797.4808. 8815. 6824. 1831.2836. 3

Otherlabor

income 1 2

25. 128. 232. 036.242.047. 554. 561.358. 158.659. 059.459.860.360.861.462. 062. 663.263. 864.4

Proprietc

Farm

12. 013.913. 914. 318.032.425.624. 625. 524.021. 017.918.520. 121. 725.829.332. 730. 528.325. 8

>rs' income 3

Nonfarm

51.452. 351.253.458. 159. 359.558.758.858.858.558.658.558. 658. 658. 758. 758. 858. 958.858. 7

Rentalincome

ofpersons4

18.618. 118. 620. 121. 521.321. 021. 120.920.920.820.820. 720. 520.220.521. 021.321.822.022. 2

Divi-dends

21.922. 622. 923, 024. 627.831. 132. 831. 032. 132. 132. 132.432.632. 933. 233. 533. 933. 833. 831. 7

Personalinterestincome

49. 655. 964. 369. 374.688.4

106. 5120. 7116. 0115. 9116. 0116. 1116.6117. 5118. 6119.7121.2122.9125. 1127.9130. 4

Transferpay-

ments

59.966. 579. 994. 1

104. 1118.6140.4175.0156.3159.0165.4167.2168.6169.3189. 0176.8178. 1181. 3180.6181.4183. 1

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

22.826. 328. 030.834.242.247.449.848. 148.948.848. 948. 949. 149. 349. 550. 050. 450. 751.251. 6

Non-farm

personalincome5

667.5725.8780.7838. 0917. 3

1, 013. 51, 119. 11, 210. 21, 164. 31, 167. 61, 171. 31, 176. 21, 179. 71, 186. 21, 212. 51, 207. 21, 222. 11, 234. 81, 245. 61, 256. 31, 263. 6

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsfrom compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employer contribu-tions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors* fees; and a few other minor items.

* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

* With capital consumption adjustment.* Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises,

farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by nonfarm cor-porations.

NOTE.—Series revised. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau, of Economic Analysis,


pISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose about 1 percent in 1975, with a 5 percent annual rate of increase from thefirst to the fourth quarter.

WIUONS Of DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

t<200

1,000

800

$00

SEASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUM RATES

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

\

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

1,200

1,000

800

600

2,5001968 1969

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1975 1976

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISEES

2,500

Period

196719681969197019711972197319741975*

1974: !_.._II—III_.IV. _

1975: 1-II-.,III..IV *.

Per-sonal

income

626.6685.2745.8801.3859. 1942.5

1, 054. 31, 154 71, 246. 0

1, 115. 91, 136. 61, 171. 61, 194. 81, 203. 61, 223. 81, 261. 71, 294. 8

Less:Per-sonaltaxandnon-tax

pay-ments

Bi3

82.197.1

115.4115.3116.3141.2151.2171.2169.2

162. 1168.4175.3178.9179.6142.1174.6180.4

Equals :Dispos-

ableper-sonal

income

lions of d

544. 5588. 1630.4685.9742.8801.3903. 1983. 6

1, 076. 8

953. 8968.2996. 3

1, 015. 91, 024. 01, 081. 71, 087. 11, 114. 4

Less:Per-sonalout-

lays *

ollars

503.7550. 1595.3635.4685.5751.9830.4909. 5987.2

Seas

872.6901.4931.7932.4950.4974.2

1, 001. 31, 023. 1

Equals :Per-sonal

saving

40.938. 135. 150. 657. 349. 472.774.089.6

onally ad;

81.266. 864. 683. 673.6

107.585.991.3

Per cajposable

Currentdollars

2,7402,9303, 1113,3483, 5883,8374,2924, 6425,040

usted anr

4,5134, 5744, 6974, 7794,8085, 0705,0835,199

>ita dis-income

1972dollars

Dol

3,3713,4643,5153,6193, 7143,8374,0683,9814,012

lual rates

4,0373,9763,9693,9403,9054,0774,0124,052

Per capsonal cc

tion expt

Currentdollars

lars

2, 4682,6702,8603,0203,2273,5103,8434,1814,509

4,0194, 1474,2794,2734,3504,4544,5694,659

ita per-msump-mditures

1972dollars

3,0353, 1563,2343,2653,3423, 5103, 6423,5863,588

3,5963,6053,6173,5233,5333, 5813,6073,631

Percentchangein real

percapitadispos-

ableper-sonal

income

3.02.81.53.02.63.36.0

-2. 1.8

— 5.5-5.9

ijr

-2.9-3.518.8

— 6.24.0

Savingas per-cent ofdispos-

ableper-sonal

income

7.56.55.67.47.76.28.07. 58.3

8.56.96.58.27.29. 97.98.2

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) a

198, 712200, 706202, 677204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211, 894213, 631

211, 362211, 699212, 123212, 585212, 962213, 362213, 897214, 339

»Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers•o business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners.

* Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly dataare for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.

Note.—Series revised. See Survey of Current BuMnets, January 1976.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


FARM INCOMEfa the fii« for 1975 was about the

tame as for

BILLIONS

100

MWBftt

I I T1909

J I1970

NET FARM INCOMENET INVENTOR?

OiANGE

J f1971

t I t I f1973

\J f

1974T f

1975

COUNCIL 0s ECONOMIC ADVIStRS

1969...-. __.._..1970..... „.. .„_.________

1972.............. _.1973............._......1974. _,_ _ .. .. „._ ....... „1975 ....................

I..................11................III.._.. -.—.....IV.......... .

I..................II.........III..... _rv ».

Personaltotal 1

Fromall

sources

23.726.426.828.033. 547.7440448

Income rearm popu

Fromfarm

sources

11. 112.712.6iao16.32a723.123. 1

ceived bylation

Fromnonfarmsources

12.713.714215.017.219.020.921.7

Realize

Total*

Billions <

51756.358.660.670.195. 3

101. 1

105. 897.699.2

101.9

93. 799. 9

102.9

3

jd

Cashreceipts

frommarket-

ingsjf dollars

44248.250.552.961.286.993. 5

natty adfa

98.490. 191.594 I

85. 591. 7947

Income re

tion ex-penses

39.742.444 847.852. 865.873.4

,$ted

72. 673.273. 874 0

74075.477. 2

ceived fro

Netfcoper

Exclud-ingnetin-ventorychange

12.013.913.812.817.329.527.7

al

24425.427.9

^aT"1 24 5\ 25. 7 |

~\zz*S-

m farming

o farmators

Includ-ing net in-ventorychange *

12. 114013.814218.233. 126. 126.0

34322.822. 325,0

20.7• 27. 0

28. 727.6

r

Net incfarm inclinventor]

Currentdollars

Dol

3,9494,6724,6674,8796,332

11, 6399,2119,260

12, 1208,0607,8808,830

7,3709

10, 220

ome peruding netT change *

1967dollars *

lars

33797

40944; 1005, 1068,4345,7215,230

7,9205,0704,8005,190

4.2405,5005,710

1 in-by

» of mud at the for the» on of of a Tlit to

a

In by the of by for '©n m

ef

6


9 1974 to 1975 but profits with Inventory 16 percent.

<6«5A120

AA30

40

fl

«*

,,**— — |

.MM^MMM*̂

I 1 !

1968

SOUSCE, DE?ARTM£KT C

"̂ "̂ N^̂:>**„

iflSffln^***"*"-

^**-J

1 1 1

1969

f CQMMERCt

^— H»

<OmS£m*S&$

TAX LIABILITY

I 1 11970

SEASONAL

«OfH$

^^\r^.OFTTS AFTER TAX

\.£p«MII»**iIilliIHHI|l«

"̂"1 ! !

1971

.V

,

^^*1.--x

_— ̂— -^

1 1 11972

4 8MB

_/4

, '

,— . fj*!**.̂ -*>^X^K. ^BK«BC_

UNDISTRIBinEC

! t 11973

^\IA* \,— *• ^

^A^VmT ^

*

nous

t \ i1974

/v/ -y

vJ>

F^t i i t i t .

1975 1976

COUNCII. Of ECONOMIC AStflSSl,

140

120

80

«

0

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1965 .......19661967..... ...1968 ....1969 .1970.......1971............1972.... ........1973............1974............1975». ..........

I ...n. .......in........IV__. .____i..........ii-.... _ „ _in.......IV » .....

4 See p. S for witJ of the n8 n

Profit

Tutal8

7as7ae75.682.177.9ea476.989.698. 693.6

ioa 3100.396, 092.086. 183.4

101.6119.6

h

not Ac»t

s (before

Total

7ai75.972.678.974.262. 672.484. 79L 782. 5

102.485,987.282, 075. 177.695,7

113.4

an

tax) wit!adjustn

Dome?

Fiaan-ci;ii

7.58.59.0

10.411.312.614.115.417.417.316.217.217,118.316. 518.315. 514 9

€ oc

7-

L inventclent1

stic indu

N

Total 3

62. 567.463.66a 562.950, 158.269.374.365.386. 26a 770.26a 75ae.59.380. 29a 6

>ry valua

stries

onfinanc

Manu-fac-tur-ing

38. 341.637.941.236.827. 132.440.643. 837.446.640.939.837.03L930.043. 5546

ttion

tal

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

7.9aoa 9

10. 110. 19.4

11.713.314413.4

14615.511.711.916,321.025,1

J

Profitsbefore

tax

75.280.777.385.683.471.582. 096.2

117.0132, 1nas128.3129.6146.7123. 997. 1

108.2129.5

Taxlia-

bility

30.933.732.539.439.734537.741. 54a 252.647.049.452.659,349.237,541.650.7

,.

ProJ

Total

44347.144946.243.837.044354668.879.572.87a 977.187.474759.666.67a§

M,

Its after

Divi-dends

ia i19.420.12L922.622.923.024627.831.132.830.030.931.731.732.132. 633. 5sa i

of

tax

Un-dis-trib-utedprof-its

25,227.624724221,214 121.330,040,9

40.04a 946,255,7

27.534045,3

10

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

— 1.9—2. 1-1.7-3.4— 5.5— 5. 1-5.0— 6.6

-18.4—-11.5— 2a o—-547-37.7— IS. 7

—6, 6— 9.9

Tfc


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTBusiness fixed investment rose $6.0 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarterf following little change in the third quarter.Residential outlays increased $5.3 billion, about the same as in the third quarter. Inventory investment rose $1.9billion; in the third quarter the rise was $27.5 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

300

260

220

180

140

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

I I 1 I I I I I I I t I I I I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)120

100

80

NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

I I

PRODUCERS'DURABLE EQUIPMENT

t I I

„*••"7-•-* \

STRUCTURES

I I t

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAlQ80 1 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

? t t t

-20 -

-40

1972 1976

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1965196619671968196919701971197219731974.1975" _._1974: I.

II_IllIV.. ...

1975: I...IIIIIIV » „

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

112.0124.5120.8131.5146.2140.8160.0188.3220.5212.2183.3218.4212.7207.6210.3168.7161.4194.920a3

Nor

Total

71.381.482.189.398.9

100.5104. 1116.8136.5147.9148.7145.9146.6148.1151.1149.3146. 1146.7152.7

iresident

Struc

Total

26.129.229.531.635.737.739.342.549.054.452.653.454.154.056. 154.951. 151.253.4

ial fixed

tures

Non-farm

25.128.128.230.434.336. 137.841. 146.852.150.451.151.851.753.752.648.849.051.3

investme

Prodidur,

equip

Total

45.152.252.657.763.362.864.774.387.593.596.192.592.494.195.094.495.095.699.3

nt

icers*ablement

Non-farm

41.247.948.053.458.958. 159.969. 180.786.088.485.685.086.686.786.787.288.691.2

Resid

Total

31.228.728.634.537.936.649. 662.066.554648.857.656.955.048.744.245.050.455.7

ential fix

Non-farmstruc-tures

29.927.427.233. 136.335. 147.960.364.752.246.955.354.652.746.342.643. 148.253.5

ed invesi

Farmstruc-tures

0.6.7.7.6.7.6.7.7.6

1.0.6

1.0.9.9

1.2

.4

.5

. 8

.7

iment

Pro-ducers'

dur-able

equip-ment

0.7.7.7.8.9.9

1. 01. 11.21.31.31.31.41.41.31.21.31.41.4

Changeness mv

Total

9. 514.310. 17.79.43.86.49.4

17.59.7

-14.214.99.34.4

10.4-24.8-29. 6

— 2. 1— . 2

in busi-entories

Non-farm

8.514.59.47.69.23.75.18.8

14.111.6

-16.114.111.07.6

13.7-23.3— 29.6-5.7-5.7

NOTK.—Series revised. See Survey of Current, Business, January 1976. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

8


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTBusiness plans to increase capital spending 5K percent in 1976/ according to the annual survey conducted in lateNovember and December.

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS140

120

too

80

40

20

SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

t \ \ \

1970

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW.

SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1971

NONMANUFACTURJNG

,.«•'**"

1972

i i i1973

,„„„.««»""""•

MANUFACTURING

1974 1975

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1140

120

100

80

40

201976

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1969197019711972197319741975 3

1976 4

1975: IIL_Ill

IV3... _1976: I 3

II3

Total1

75.5679. 7181. 2188.4499.74

112. 40118. 49119. 68

114. 57112. 46112. 16

114. 80118. 16120. 87

M

Total

31.6831.9529. 9931. 3538. 0146.0148.3150. 71

49. 0548. 7847. 39

48. 1649.8851.37

anufactur

Dur-able

goods

15.9615. 8014. 1515. 6419.2522. 6222. 0522. 22

22.8622. 5921. 01

21.8222.3423.27

ing

Non-durablegoods

15. 7216. 1515. 8415. 7218.7623.3926. 2728.48

26.2026. 1926.38

86.3427.5328.10

Total

43.8847.7651. 2257.0961.7366. 3965. 1868.98

65.5263. 6864.76

66.6468. 2869.50

Min-ing

1.861.892. 162. 422. 743. 183. 823. 67

3.763.783.82

S.934*00

N

Trar

Rail-road

1.861.781.671.801.962.542.542. 29

2.392.702.75

2. 362.49

onman

isportat

Air

2.513.031.882.462.412.001.841.26

2.091.602.12

L671.36

ufacturk

ion

Other

1.681. 231.381.461.662. 122.902.82

2.822.752.99

2.913.04

ig

Publicutilities

11. 6113. 1415.3017.0018. 7120. 5520.3123.99

20. 2819.5219.79

21.5423.62

Com-muni-cation

8.3010. 1010. 7711. 8912.8513.9613.09

34

13. 3612.5012.95

$4.&&oo.

Com-mercial

andother 2

16.0516.5918.0520.0721.4022.0520. 67

95

20.8220.8320.34

H76

1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations.

2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.*Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business

L late October and November 1975.* Estimates based on annual survey conducted in late November and December(75.

NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does notnecessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures.

These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national productestimates, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and alsocertain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense.

Estimates (as noted in footnotes 3 and 4) include adjustments when necessaryfor systematic biases in expectations data.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


OFby 800,000 in to million, the highest level since July 1974.

fell by 445,000.

OF

•*« YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.

1976

council o? teoNQMic ADVISERS

Period

19711972*_____1973*— ..1974__1975......

1975:Jan_____F e b « _ _ _Mar__.__

_ „ _ _m&y____Jime»___July....Aug....Sept....Oct.....Nov....Dec.___

1976:Jan.,,,..

Nonin-stitu-tional

popula-tion

142, 5961453 775148, 263150, 827153, 449

U

152, 230152, 445152, 646152, 840153, 051153, 278153, 585153, 824154, 052

154, 476154 700

154, 915

Civilianemploy-

ment

79, 12081,70284,40985,93684,783

82,96982,60483, 03683,54984, 14685,44486,65086,61285,274

85,536

84, 491

Unem-ploy-ment

4,9934, 8404, 3045,0767,830

8,1808,3098,3597,8207,6238,5698,2097,6967,5227,2447,2317,195

8, 174

Totallaborforce

(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

86, 92988, 99191,04093, 24094,793

94, 15693, 72194, 07894,4499^95094,747

95, 37795, 27395, 286

95, 624

Civilianlaborforce

84,11386,54288,71491, Oil92, 613

91, 96391, 52391, 88092,25492,769

93,21293, 12893, 21393, 11793,129

§3,484

C

Total

79, 12081,70284,40985,93684,783

84,66684,1638^11084,31384,519

85, 15185,178

86, 194

ivilian ei

Agri-cul-tural

3,3873,4723,4523,4923,380

Seas<

3,3703,2523,2683,3013,5283,3503,4393,4643,512

3,3013,236

3, 343

mploymen

Nonagri

T/vfftl

75,73278, 23080, 95782, 44381, 403

adj

81, 29680, 91180, 84281, 01280, 99181, 14881, 52881, 82481, 64681, 74381, 87782, 158

82? 851

it

cultural

Part-timefor eco-nomic

reasons s

2,4402,4082,3112,7093,490

usted

3,7583,6273,7993,8033,7503,4223,2773,2343,2913,3613,3533,243

3,482

Unemplc

Total

4,9934,8404,3045,0767,830

7,2977, 360

. 7,7707,9418,2508.0718,0967,9247,9708,0627, €897, 735

7,290

:>yment

15weeksandover

1, 1821,158

812937

2,483

1,5721,8281,9782,2782,5292, 7512,9542,8782,9342, 719 [3, 004 !3, 080

2,785

Laborforce

partici-pationrate(per-cent)1

61.061.061.46L861.8

61. §61.561.661. 862.061.862.062.061.9

j 6L8| 6L7! 61.6,' 61.7

n0tc€ to to the

to tfeft tOA in to tha

w

1 at in* Total ss of 16 of age

10 t»f of


The adjusted unemployment declined by OJ5 percentage point to 7.8 percent m Jmwtsy. issubstantially the peak of 8.9 percent in May,

1972 I W3 W4 W5ÛNEVîOYMENT AS PERCENT W OViLJAN LABOR FORC£ W GROUJ'SPîfkU

SOURC& DEPARTM&*f OF IA&OS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1971 .......19721973... .........1974.................1975......... —

Jan... — — —Feb

„_........

June _ _ _July— — — ~

Sept...........Oct.. — ..— .NovDec.......— ..Jan......... ...

Total(all

civil-ian

work-ers)

5, 95.6495.68.57.98.08.58. C8,98. 78.78.58.6aea sas7.8

Unei

Men20

yearsandover

4 4403.23.86.75,96.26.6as7.27,07. 16.87.27.27. 10.0as

nployme

Women20

yearsandover

5.75.4485. 58. 07. 97,98.38,58,4

ao7.97,87,97.98,07.5

nt rate (

Bothsexes16-19vears

16,916.214516.019,919.819,420.119.720,320.720.520.719.419.819.019.619.9

percent <

White

5.45. 04 35.07.87.87.37.87.9asaoa i7.87. 8ao7.8

9

7.1

>f elviliai

Negroand

otherraces

a 9mo8. 99.9

13.913.013. 313.814114214013.4143

• 14414313.913,813,2

i labor f <

Expe-riencedwageand

salarywork-

ers

6.75.3455.38.27.67.78.28.6&98.68. 4as8.38. 4asai7.4

>ree la gj

House-hold

heads

3,63.32.93.3as5.2436.7as6.1aiaiaraoaoas5.75.1

roup)

Fufl-timework-

ers

5.55.14 3aiai7,57.6aoasasB.48,5a i8. 4asas7.97,3

Part-timework-

ers

8. 7ae7.9as

10.310.410. 2

ia sia7mi

91 910,3

H» §

ia 2la sias

In-

unem-lôy-ment

as per-cent of

cov-ered

employ-1

40as2.8asa oH4& 8a 28w4a 7a 76*2aiaia o•". i&.Q

..,„-..

Labor

los-t&>cr-

cent) s

6.4aoas6.19,1gB 78. 7asa 49,78, 0asasai9.4asa§a4

» ss & of

* lost by the ancl cm foras of available

—

©f of


UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMSIn December, seasonally adjusted Insured unemployment under State programs averaged 3.2 million or 235,000 lessthan in November. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped from 5.2 percent in November to4.8 percent in December.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS

\raay INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT(STATE PROGRAMS)

JAN.

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1972_19731974*1975*1974: Dec1975: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept *Oct 9Nov 9Dec 9

Week ended:1975: Dec27_.1976: Jan 3...

101724 ». __31 9

A

Coveredemploy-

ment

Thou

66, 45869, 89771, 905

——.-.«.-,,«

11 progran

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

(weeklyaver-age)

sands

2, 1921, 7932, 5584, 9203, 9105,2135,7515,8865,6475,2024,8924,9904,5904,2544,0444, 1204,460

4,5145,2065,0414,9654,941

as

Totalbenefits

paid(mil-lions

of dol-lars)

5, 491. 14, 517. 36, 933. 9

848. 31, 256. 61, 312. 31, 490. 41, 539. 71, 395. 21, 256. 71, 406. 61, 199. 01, 095. 21, 046. 3

Insureploj

Unad-justed

^1,8481,6322,2623,9733,5504,7525,1085,0914,7754,2813,8783,8713,4363,0772,9243,0453,409

3,4864, 1123,9643,8973,873

d unem-inent

Season-ally ad-justed

Veekly av

S,2913,6523,9554,2164,5224,6284,4274,1283,8983,8853,7183,4293,193

2,9933,2103,0072,9152,892

InCl£

Unad-justed

3rage, t

261246363472703795609510463401427480375340367402501

574541708564486448

Sta

itialtims


lousands

552565546545525494487421443449439386375

S79377411354S65343

tie prog

Ex-haus-tions

352937

425058668492

10410597847373

— «M.«.,_

ramsInsurec

ploymencent of

emplo

Unad-justed

Per

3.52.73.56.05,47.27.87.77.26.45.85.85. 14.64.44.65,1

5.26.26,05.95,9

I unem-it as per-coveredyment


cent

5.05.56.06.46.87.06.76.25.85.86.65.24*8

4.54.94.64*4Jl

Benefit

Total(mil-

lions ofdollars)

4, 471. 04, 007. 65, 974. 9

745.91, 128. 21, 164 21, 290. 61, 301. 21, 145. 1

984.01, 086. 9

881.3763.87342

.«*•• OM.4B OBOMVI

—- . mmam mam mjmf

-,-

s paidAver-age

weeklycheck(dol-lars)

56.7659,006425

67.2267.836a7369.0769.0869.3369,5871.587a9871.2272.18

•»... .i»i« • i-m

„

TO Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTNonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by 358,000 jobs in January. The number of jobs inJanuary was 1.7 million higher than in April 1975 but still 0.7 million below the peak in September 1974,

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

80

76

72

20

-ALL NONAGRICULTURAL-ESTABLISHMENTS

\NONMANUFACTURING

(PRIVATE)

1973

MANUFACTURING

1974U_LJ1975

t f t t t I t I t..t. t!

1976

NONDURABLEMANUFACTURING

1973* 1976

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]

Period

19711972197319741975 *

1974: Dec..

1975: Jan_.Feb..Mar.Apr..May.June.July.Aug_Sept.Oct^.Nov.Dec*

1976: Jan*1.

Total

71, 22273, 71476, 89678, 41376, 984

77, 723

77, 31976, 80476, 46876, 46276, 51076, 34376, 67977, 02377, 31077, 55577, 57477, 782

78, 140

Manufat

Total

18, 57219, 09020, 06820, 04618, 347

19, 190

18, 79818, 37518, 22618, 15518, 16218, 10018, 08418, 25418, 41718, 49318, 48218, 573

18, 712

sturing (

Durablegoods

10, 59711,00611, 83911,89510, 680

11, 357

11, 09910, 81310, 72810, 63710, 59510, 52710, 46510, 56310, 65010, 66110, 65310, 725

10, 808

private)

Non-durablegoods

7,9758,0848,2298, 1517,668

7,833

7,6997,5627,4987,5187,5677,5737,6197,6917,7677,8327,8297,848

7,904

Total

39, 76241, 28443, 09044, 19043, 865

44, 112

44, 05443, 83543, 62443, 61543, 62243, 55243, 77943, 91444, 04844, 09844, 11744, 216

44, 427

N

Mining

609625644694745

686

723724729732738741743749752774766770

767

onmanu

Con-tractcon-

struc-tion

3,6393,8314,0153,9573,457

3,770

3,7493,5923,4673,4413,4393,3923,3953,4153,4323,4023,4093,396

3,400

facturini

Trans-porta-tionand

publicutilities

4,4574,5174,6444,6964,498

4,659

4,6034,5654,5064,5084,4914,4694,4644,4664,4674,4764,4964,469

4,491

5 (private

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

15, 35215, 97516, 67417, 01716,948

16, 935

16, 90316, 87916, 85116, 84716, 85716, 87716, 98417, 01617,04517, 04317, 01017, 088

17, 207

)

Financeinsur-ance,andreal

estate

3,8023,9434,0914,2084,223

4,229

4,2194,2104,2074,2094,2084,2024,2034,2184,2394,2464,2484,264

4,275

Services

11, 90312, 39213, 02113, 61713, 995

13, 833

13, 85713, 86513, 86413, 87813, 88913, 87113, 99014, 05014, 11314,15714,18814*229

14287

Gover

Federal

2,6962,6842,6632,7242,748

2,738

2,7342,7332,7332,7312,7322,7382,7452,7562,7652,7672,7612,755

2,754

nment1

Stateandlocal

10, 192i10, 656i11,07511,45312,024

11,683

11, 73311,861.11, 88511,96111, 99411, 95S12,07112, 09912, mo12, 19712, 21412, 238

12,247

1 Includes a 11 full-and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieulturalestablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay periodwhich includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-rons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from(bistable not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed

persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when theyare not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates In this table are based onreports from employing establishments.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Stattsttesi 13


WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK -SELECTED INDUSTRIESThe seasonally adjusted workweek of private nonfarm payroll workers Increased by 0.2 hour to 36.6 fiours In January.Hows of work have been "ma-easing since May.

4$

44

42

m

23

36

34

42

40

3S

36

34

32

mi

i WSK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED?

TOTAL PRIVATE

1973I f t f l l t t f T l

1974 1975t 1 I 1 ! 1

1976

CONTRACT CONSTRUaiON

1973 1974t 1 t 1 f f f t

1975

f t ? 1 ! » « ! t

1976

HOURS PER WEEK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED46

44

42

40

38

36

34

42

40

38

36

34

32

MANUFACTURING

f.J t | i i 1 t 11973

I f f 1 1 I f 1 t 11974

f LI I f 1 f | J |

1975 1976

RETAll TRADE

3o i f j . f t . i t . l i1973 1974 1975 1976


[Average hours per week1]

Period

1967.,1968— _ „„_..1969-—.. .— -1970 „-...„„„1971.. «.„1972 ,1973 .1974 ... „ „_1975.. „-_„..1974: Dec.................1975: Jan.. ...... .....

Feb............Mar.... .™_..Apr.May.__...mMJune^..^ .̂ . .......July_........ ....Aug .......... _Sept.. _.......Oct..... ........NOT-.. . ,._Dee 9 „.___ „

Jaa »...._...._.„_!

Totalnonagri-culturalprivate 2

sao37.837.737.137.037.137. 136.636. 136. 435.735.735,635.735. 836,336.436,636,336.236.236.5 i36.1

Manufac-turing

Unad

40.640,740. 639.839.940.640. 740. 039.439,9sa-738. 538.738.939.039.539.239,740.239.940.140,839.8

Contractconstruc-

tion

Justed

37.737.337. 937. 337.236.937.036. 936.636.835.535. 434:736.436.936.537.337.837.637,536. 336.936.1

Retailtrade 3

35. 334734.233.833.733.733.332. 732.432.831.' 831. 832.031. 932. 132.833.333.432.332. 132. 132.831.8


S&S$& 236,135.935.935,936. Q§8.0S6.2$6.130. *30.330.^S6.6

Manufac-turing

Seasonally

39. 439. tS8. 838.939,139.0S9.SS9.439.7S9.8$9.8S9.940, s40.4

Contractconstruc-

tion

p adjusted

37. 4sr^s$6<834. &$6.836,9§6. 736. $30. 730.7S6.686. SS7.537. 8

! Retail1 trade 3

$2,532 4S% SS8 5s% s32 53® 4<%® 8}O& &

82 S8% 282 SS% 5SB.&

9*. 41 Data relate to production workers or monsuperriscxry employees;* Also includes othw priTat© industry groups sfaowa on p. IS.* loafacles wtog and drinking places;

14

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisrttes*


AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS -• SELECTED INDUSTRIESAverage hourly earnings of private nonfarm payroll workers increased 4 cents (10.8 percent annual rate) to $4.72 inJanuary and were 32 cents (7.3 percent) above a year earlier.

DOLLARS DOLLARS

TOO

-AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS

-^/•^

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.001973

- AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

1976

280

240

200

160

120

80

CONTRACTCONSTRUCTION

7^r

•j+~*~*

1973

MANUFACTURING

TOTAL NONAGRiCULTURALPRIVATE

RETAIL TRADE

1974

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1975 1976


Period

19671968196919701971.....1972_. • _ _ _1973 _ . _ _19741975*1974: Dec1975: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec"

"176: Jan*

Average h

Totalnonagri-eulturalprivate 1

$2. 682. 853. 043. 223.443.673. 924. 224.544. 384.404. 424.444.464.484.514.534. 564. 644. 664.684.684.72

[Fo

ouriy earm

Manu-factur-

ing

$2. 833. 013. 193. 363.573.814. 084. 414. 814. 664. 674.684. 724. 734.754.784.814. 824.894. 904. 935.005.01

r productic

ings- — currc

Contractcon-

struc-tion

$4. 114.414. 795. 245. 696.036. 376. 757.257.057. 076. 997. 147. 127. 127. 187.247. 277.427.427.457.467.55

>n workers

>nt dollars

Retailtrade 2

$2. 012. 162. 302. 442. 572.702. 873. 093. 343. 183. 243. 273. 273.293.313.333. 333. 353. 393.413.413.403.47

or nonsupe

Average ^


$101. 84107. 73114. 61119. 46127. 28136. 16145. 43154. 45163. 89159. 43157. 08157. 79158. 06159. 22160. 38163. 71164. 89166. 90168. 43168. 69169. 42170. 82170. 39

rvisory em

weekly earn

Manu-factur-

ing

$114. 90122. 51129. 51133. 73142. 44154. 69166. 06176. 40189. 51185. 93180. 73180. 18182. 66184. 00185. 25188. 81188. 55191. 35196. 58195. 51197. 69204. 00199. 40

ployees]

dngs- — curr

Contractcon-

struc-tion

$154. 95164. 49181. 54195. 45211. 67222. 51235. 69249. 08265. 35259. 44250. 99247. 45247. 76259. 17262. 73262. 07270. 05274. 81278. 99278. 25270. 44275. 27272. 56

ent dollars

Retailtrade 2

$70. 9574.9578.6682. 4786. 6190. 9995. 57

101. 04108. 22104. 30103. 03103. 99104. 64104. 95106. 25109. 22110. 89111. 89109. 50109. 46109. 46111. 52110. 35

Manufgindu

Adjustedhourly

earnings.1 flf"7Iyo7 —inn s

100.0106. 1112. 4119.4127. 3135. 1143. 6156. 0171. 5164.3165.5166. 5167. 9168.7169.7170.7171.7172.8174.5175. 6176. 7178. 1179.1

icturingstries

Averageweeklyearn-ings,1967

dollars 4

$114. 90117. 57117. 95114. 99117.43123. 46124. 76119.43117. 56119. 65115.78114. 62115.75116. 02116. 29117. 57116, 17117. 54120. 16118. 78119. 38122. 67

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13.•* Includes eating and drinking places.'Adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts.

65-989°—76 3

* Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau oi Labor Statistics.


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONIndustrial production increased 1 percent in December, following rises of about K percent in October and in November.December gains were sizable and wide-spread among consumer goods, business equipment, and materials.

Index, 1967-100 {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} Index, 1967 =100 {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED}

140

120

100

80

TOTAL

1972 1973I t i

1974i I i i I i1975

160

140

120

100

140

120

100

UTILITIES AND MINING

1972

MINING

1973 1974 1975

MARKET GROUPS

INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS

1972

SOURCE, BOARD Of GOVERNORS Of THE ffDGUO. RESERVE SYSTEM

1975 1972 1973 1974 1975

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVIS&S

Period

1969..197019711972____1973_19741975 *__1974: Nov

Dec _1975: Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov1'Dec*

Totalindus-trial

produc-tion

110.7106.6106.8115. 2125. 6124.8113. 8121.7117.4113.7111. 2110.0109.9110.0111. 1112.2114.2116.2116.7117.3118.5

Mt

Total

110.5105.2105. 2114.0125. 1124.4112.2120.9116. 1111.8109. 3107.7107.9108.2109.5110.6112.8114.7115.6116.3117.5

[1

mufacturi

Durable

110.0101.499.4

108.4122.0120.7105.9117.9112.2108. 21048103.5103.3102.5103.2103.4105.4107.0107.7108.0109.3

967=100,Industrynp

Non-durable

111. 1110.6113.5122.1129.7129.7121.3125.4121.9117.2115. 6113.7114.8116.2118.6120.8123.4125.7127.0m.3129.5

seasonal]

Mining

107. 2109. 7107. 0108. 8110. 3109.3106.4105.0104.4107.0108.6108.9108.5105.9106.3106.4105.0105.3105.8105.4103.7

y adjuste

Utilities

119. 512&3133. 9143.4152.6149.9154.6152.3152.6152.1150.9154.1153. 1152.3152.6153.9154.6156. 1156.6157.0156.9

i]

Fi

Total

109. 0104.5104. 7111.9121.3121.7115.5120.9118.2114.9113.4112.2112.6113.7114.5115.7115.9116.9116.9117.6118.6

rial produCon-sumergoods

111. 1110.3115.7123.6131.7128.8124.0126.3123.4120.1118. 9118.2119.7121.2123.3125.5125.7126.8127.2128.3129.6

Marketets

Equip-ment

106. 196.389.495.5

106.7111.7103.6113.2110.7107.8105.3103.9103.0102.9102.2102.2102. 3102.8102.6102. 7103.3

Inter-mediateproducts

112.0111.7112. 5121.1131.012R3116.3123.0120.5117.6115. 1112.7113.4112.4112.8114.3115.4116.6117.2118.4120.0

Mate-rials

112.4107.7107.4117.4129.3127.4110. 7122. 1114.8110.5107.4105.9105.2104.9106.0106.8111.5115.1116.4116.7117.9

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

16


PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURESOutput of most durable and nondurable manufactures increased 1 percenf or more in December.

WDEX, 1967= 100. (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

140INDEX, 1967= 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

160

CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM,AND RUBBER

801972

SOURCI; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1975


[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1968...196919701971197219731974 .1975 * _ _ _

1974: NovD e c _ _ _

1975: JanFebMarApr .MayJuneJulyAugSeptOct _ . .Nov v _Dec ^ _ _ _ _

Primarymetals

103.2114 1106.9100.9113.1127.0124. 198.2

121.0108.6

107.2102. 198.195.089.991.892.896.597.298.0

101.0102.6

Durafc

Fabri-catedmetal

products

106.3113. 6109.4107. 4114.8130. 5131.4114.7

128.2124.1

118.2na?112.9112.4110.9110.9109. 7112.7116. 1115.9116.2117.4

>le manufc

Machin-ery

101.9106.8100.396.2

107.5125.8128.1112.9

128.9124.8

119.6115. 6112.2110.8109.0108.2ioa4110.0111.7112.9113.6114,8

ictures

Transpor-tationequip-ment

109.7107. 690.492. 999.0

109.196.988.4

93.783.6

78.977.181.084.787.690.591.092.994.394.794. 195.9

Lumberand

prod-ucts

104 8108.6106. 3113.9122.4127.9120. 1

105.2101.3

99.999.699.8

1041108.0110.3112.0114.5115.5116.8117.0

Nc

Textilesapparel,

andleather

104 9105. 9100. 2100. 7108. 1115.0108.997.8

101.996.3

88.989. 687.590.493.294.997.4

100.2104.0106.0107.6109.5

>ndurable

Paperand

print-ing

104 2109. 1107. 8107. 8116. 1122.2121.0109. 6

115.7112.3

108.2106. 61042102.4103.9107.3107.4110.8113.9114.61149116.3

manufactu

Chemicals,petro-

leum, andrubber

109. 6118. 4118. 2124. 7137. 8149. 3151.7140.3

146. 5141. 6

136. 5132. 4130.2131.0132.4136.2140. 1143. 6146.2148. 3149. 7151.1

res

Foods

tobacco

103.6107. 5110. 8113. 7117.6121. 9124. 81244

123. 8123. 5

121. 1121. 3120.0122.5122. 4123. 51248125. 2126.0126. 1127.5127.9

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17


WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTIONMost of the weekly indicators of production (not seasonally adjusted) declined in December.

MILLIONS OF TONS MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS

STEEL1973

» t , , , l , . , , t , t . , l . . . T . t . l iJ F M A M J J A S O N

BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS50]

40

30

20

ELECTRIC POWER

l imit . t i t t f t t t l t

J F M A MTHOUSANDS

300

200

S O N

M M

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR,EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

Weekly average:1969._ _197019711972197319741975 »1974: Nov

Dec_1975: Jan- _ __ ___

Feb_ _Mar__AprMayJune _JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1976: Jan *Week ended:

1975: Dec 271976: Jan 3

10172431".

Feb 7*

Steel piThousands

of nettons

2,7092,5222,3102,5492,8922,7952,2402,7072,4802,6152,7152, 7042,4872,2272, 0381,894a, 9522, 1722,0802,0301,997

1,8962,0052, 1522,2362,2532,3202 2, 286

roducedIndex

(1967=100)

111.0103. 494.7

104.5118.5114.691. 8

111. 0101. 6107.2111. 3110.8101.991. 383.577.680.089. 085. 383.281.8

77.782.288.291.792.395.193.7

Electricpower

distributed(millions of

kilowatt-hours)

27, 58829, 31730, 92333, 54035, 83435, 83936, 59834, 83936, 03936, 36036,42335, 26033, 91234, 71437, 71139, 62340, 49836, 32834, 66835, 70137, 60440, 379

37, 12835, 96941, 37640, 08240, 80339, 2562 40, 031

Bituminouscoal mined(thousands

of shorttons) »

10, 77911, 59510, 61911,45011, 38011, 52212, 2197,599

10, 03311, 96112,26112, 19812, 68413, 08813, 5799,990

11, 55812, 62413, 36513, 08811, 34611,314

7, 6309,450

10,57011, 68511, 37011, 630

i

Freightloaded

(thousandsof cars)

543522486502526504447460411432442435445448468416453461491458391429

292315403433433447

Paperboarcproduced

(thousandsof tons)

507489501548569556475525395356471427439474482419512482560544560546

587

511562550562

Carassemb

Total

195.8158. 92048217.3243.5192. 0172.5196. 5126.0122.7131.8151. 9177. 2182.7200.6146. 1159. 7201. 2213.4202.4150. 7220.8

83. 0.2

201. 6223.4232. 3225.8221. 1

s and tnled (thoi

Cars

158. 1125.9165. 0169.6185. 8140. 2129. 1142. 488. 888. 292. 5

115. 7134.5138. 5150. 6107.6119. 1150. 5163. 3152.6113.9167.0

62.4. 0

154. 3168. 2177.2168. 3167.6

icksisands)

Trucks

37.833.039.847.657.751. 843.454. 137.234. 539. 336. 242.744 250.038.540. 750.750. 149. 736.853.8

20. 6.2

47.255.255. 157.553. 3

1 Includes data for Alaska.2 Not charted.

18

Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Depai!ment of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Insttute, and Ward's Automotive Reports.


NEW CONSTRUCTIONAccording to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction rose 1K percent in December. Almost all ofthe increase was in public expenditures.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS160

BILUONS Of DOLLARS160

40

20

40

201969 1975


Period

197019711972197319741975 *

1974: OctNovDec

1975: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec » 1

Total newconstruc-

tionexpendi-

tures

94. 9110.0124. 1136. 0135.5130.6

134. 5131. 9134. 0132. 3128. 9125. 5121.0121. 7126. 9128.8132. 1137. 1135. 6136. 5138. 6

Total

66.880.193.9

103.497.189.8

95. 693. 892.591. 289. 085. 784. 784. 385. 088. 190. 692.593. 395. 895. 5

Resic

Total *

Bi31. 943.354.357.647.042.9

Seasonall

44.242. 541. 139. 638. 538. 037.638. 540.443. 345.446.046.547. 548. 5

icntialNew

housingunits

llions of dol24. 335. 144.947. 937. 331.3

y adjusted at

33.932. 130.528.827.426. 926.827.628.930.632. 133. 234.936.737.7

Commer-cial and

industrial

iars16.317.018.121. 723. 820.6

inual rates

25. 124.824. 824. 123. 720. 920. 320. 319. 419.720. 220. 320.020.419.7

Other

18. 619.821.524. 126.226.3

26.326.526.627. 626.826. 826.925.425.125. 125.026.226.827.927.4

Federal,State,andlocal

28. 129. 930.232. 538.440. 8

38. 938.241. 541. 139.839. 836. 337.441. 940. 641. 544.642.440. 843. 1

Construe tio

Total valueindex,

(1967 =100)

123. 1145. 4165.3179. 9169. 7163. 1

Seasonallyadjusted

184154176136140150189191174165208157166148137

neon tracts3

Commer-cial and

industrialfloor space(millions ofsquare feet)

743727854

1,010840569

Seasonallyadjustedannual

ra,tes

750681651653558476683537606631519601649504609

1 Incfudes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions andalterations, not shown separately.2F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index andbeginning .1971 for floor space.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and Me GrawHill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

19


NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCINGPrivate housing starts declined 3 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,309,000 units. Permitsfor future housing declined 2% percent.

MILLIONS OF UNITS3.0

MILLIONS OF UNITS3,0

t.o 1.0

1969

SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of units]

Period

1070197.U _197219731974 _ _ _1975" ... _ _ _

1974: Nov..Dec

1975: JanFebMarAprMay .. . _JuneJulvAug .Sept-..OctNov p~Dec *

Totalprivate

andpublic(includ-

ingfarm)

1, 469. 02, 084. 52, 378. 52, 057. 51, 352. 51, 172. 4

75. 655.456.056.281. 198.4

117. 0110.9120. 1118.7112.8125. 096.578.7

Totalprivate(includ-

ingfarm)

1, 433. 02, 052. 22, 356. 62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 161. 5

75. 155. 156. 154. 780. 297. 9

116. 1110.3119.3117.3111.9123.696.277.8

Hou

Total (

Total

1, 433. 62, 052. 22, 356. 62, 045. 31, 337. 71, 161. 5

1,017880999

1,000985980

1, 1301,0941,2351,2691,2691, 4521,3541,309

sing star

including

Oneunit

812. 91, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0

888. 1892.8

802682739733775762887884935987931

1, 1031,028

972

ts

Private

$ farm)

Two ormoreunits620. 7901. 2

1, 047. 5913.3449.7268.7Seasona

215198260267210218243210300282338349326337

Coverhome p

(non

FHA *233. 5301. 2198.473.656.869.8

lly ad jus6867716358646773737070738274

nmentrogramsfarm)

VA61. 094. 0

104. 086. 172. 877.0

ted annu7476706565738087748281817981

Newprivatehousing

unitsauthor-ized 2

1, 351. 51, 924. 62, 218. 91, 819. 51, 074. 4

926.8al rates

770837689701677837912949

1,042995

1,0951,0791,0851,058

Proposconstri

Applica-tions for

FHAcommit-ments l

315.0366.8225.283. 287. 182. 3

1078375667588

13384686771938771

ed homeiction 2

RequestsforVA

apprais-als

143. 7217. 9209.4161. 9160. 1157. 7

154135127143130134206125156156171185186175

1 For 1- to 4-unit structures.2 Authorized by Issuance of local building permit: in 14,000 permit-issuing

places beginning 1972; 13,000 for 1967-71; 12,000 tor 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963.

20

3 Units represented by mortgage applications or appraisal requests for newhome construction.

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data for FHA and VA revised.Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Department of

Housing and Urban Development, and Veterans Administration.


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness inventories declined $0.5 billion in December, principally because of a $0.6 billion decline in nondurablegoods in retail stores. Business sales rose 1.0 percent. Preliminary estimates of retail sales in January showdecline.

a smai

BHUONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)300

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

8d1

40

TOTAL BUSINESSINVENTORIES

TOTAL BUSINESSSALES

-hROAJL INVENTORIES

1973 1974 1975 1976

RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCAU3DURABLE GOODS STORES

25

1973

SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1976


Period

1970—1971 _19721973-19741975 »_

1974: Nov.Dec

1975: JanFeb _..MarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct»Nov »Dec 9

1976: Jan

Total fc

Sales2

104, 736112, 315124, 244143, 742163, 882167, 823

167, 918162, 347

161, 915163, 248159, 050162, 374163, 038165, 504169, 124172, 349173, 441175, 318173, 977175, 713

msiness l

Inven-tories 8

175, 561184, 711197, 692224, 401271, 050265, 538

267, 075271, 050

271, 148270, 252268, 449266, 970264, 335263, 749263, 345264, 662265, 087266, 867266, 064265, 538

Whol

Sales'

3

20, 58322, 32724, 86230, 40037, 34436, 575

37, 71437, 501

36, 67537, 12035, 59035, 22835, 44236, 18636, 56737, 16637, 60437, 44937, 01837, 112

esale

Inven-tories3

rlillions of (

27, 29029, 69532, 81738, 30246, 56445, 671

45, 97646, 564

46, 19745, 95145, 52745, 30344, 55844, 85044, 65345, 50145, 62545, 71545, 55445, 671

Total

dollars, se

31, 29434, 07137, 36541, 94344,81548, 674

44, 52945, 109

46, 00646, 91445, 95146, 81348, 17348, 57849, 65549, 92549, 54950, 16550, 29351, 699

51, 531

Sales ^

Durablegoodsstores

asonally a

9,52410, 98512, 47214, 19013, 94315, 056

13, 03513, 554

14, 12614, 66413, 37814, 16514, 70314, 96515, 43215, 50615, 44015, 77515, 76316, 813

16, 668

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

djusted

21, 77023, 08624, 89327, 75430, 87233, 618

31, 49431, 555

31, 88032, 25032, 57332, 64833, 47033, 61334, 22334, 41934, 10934, 39034, 53034, 886

34, 863

jtail

Total

46, 62652, 57157, 15665, 22974, 08273, 081

73,96474,082

73, 32772, 30871, 72871, 48370, 82670, 84071, 50372, 57873, 04974, 64273, 83973, 081

[nventories

Durablegoodsstores

20, 34523, 86426, 05629, 59334, 64933, 592

34, 25134,649

34, 26732, 95632, 46032, 37532, 08631, 90932, 27033, 32433, 47133, 81333, 71233, 592

3

Non-durablegoodsstores

26, 28128, 70731, 10035, 63639, 43339, 489

39,71339, 433

39, 06039, 35239, 26839, 10838, 74038, 93139, 23339, 25439, 57840, 82440, 12739, 489

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (sec page 22)«2 Monthly average for year and total for month.8 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

Source: Department of CommerceBureau of the Census).

(Bureau of Economic Analysis and

21


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers' shipments rose 0.3 percent in December. New orders declined slightly in November and December.Inventories increased $161 million in November and $115 million in December.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED!100

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED!160

40

20

80

140

— 120

100

40

20

NEW ORDERS

DURABLE GOODS

1972 1973

NONDURABLEi i i i l l i i i i

1974

GOODS1...1.. I . . i i t r . i K

60

40

INVENTORIES

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

VRATIO2.00

IMM»IMMSIIiMll»»MltMI

II t i I I I J 1 J I I I I I t 1 I I I I 1

""*"*«•*«„,„.„„*.«•«*-

1975

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1972 1975

SdURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1970197119721973 _. _19741975" „_1974: Nov

Dec1975: Jan

FebMarAprMayJune-____July.AugSeptOct.. _ _ _Nov vDec »_ .

Mamifac

Total

52, 85955, 91762, 01771, 39881, 72382, 57585,67579,73779,23479,21477,50980,33379,42380,74082, 90285, 25886, 28887, 70486, 66686, 902

turers* sh

Durablegoods

28, 22929, 94833, 44338, 72442, 63541, 39644,27540,79940,24739,99239,12440,85140,18340,45841, 22742, 49243, 28043, 90842, 50343, 182

ipments l

Non-durablegoods

24, 62925, 96928, 57332, 67439, 08941, 17841, 40038, 93838, 98739, 22238,38539, 48239, 24040, 28241, 67542, 76643, 00843, 79644, 16343, 720

Manufael

Total

Millions

101, 645102, 445107, 719120, 870150, 404146, 786147, 135150, 404151, 624151, 993151,194150, 184148, 951148, 059147, 189146, 583146, 413146, 510146, 671146, 786

burers' inv

Durablegoods

of dollars

66, 76866, 05070, 21879, 44197, 96795, 72095, 78797, 96799, 124

100, 08299,87999, 80399, 37898, 79698, 18997, 19996, 64096, 21595, 95395, 720

entories 2

Non-durablegoods

, seasonal

34, 87736, 39537, 50141, 42952, 43751, 06651, 34852, 43752, 50051, 91151,31550, 38149, 57349, 26349, 00049, 38449, 77350, 29550, 71851, 066

Ma

Total

ly adjuste

52, 11855, 72662, 92273, 83683, 29781, 26483,80576,70475,06876,47874,36378,60078,75380,23783, 55085, 64985, 45386, 42285, 94385, 628

mifaeture

Durat

Total

d

27, 48629, 74534, 27441, 09844, 28939, 97542,70538, 09236,17237,36235,97338,98339,42839,73041, 68142, 68842, 22742, 39341, 58041, 853

m} new ordc

)le goods

Capitalgoods

industries,nondefense

7,0557,3248, 487

10, 31011, 49410, 28210, 62310, 45910, 0779,9709,522

10, 30910, 30210, 13810, 72810, 39210, 21410, 68910, 69010, 417

*rs l

Non-durablegoods

24, 63225, 98128, 64832, 73839, 00941, 28941, 10038, 61238, 89639, 11638,39039, 61739, 32540, 50741, 86942, 96143, 22644, 02944, 36343, 775

Manu-fac-

turers'inven-tory —ship-

mentsratio 3

1. 891.821. 691. 581.651.801.721.891.911.921.951.871.881. 831.781. 721. 701.671.691. 69

1 Monthly average lor year and total lor month.2 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

shipments; jor monthly data, ratio ol inventories at end oi month to shipmentsfor month,

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

22


Hie trade surplus (f.cs.s.) In December $519 million, down from the surpluses registered during the 7months which were close to, or over, $1 billion. Imports rose 5.4 percent, due to an increase in manyfactwed goods.Aithoygh exports declined slightly, manufactured goods shipments resumed their rise.

OF DOLLARS12 12

1969 1975


Period

Monthly:

19731974. ...

1974— —1975-.--

Jan— —Feb.. —Mar-,..,Apr.Maj___June.....July...Aug_ _ _Sept.Oct—Nov...Dec

Totaldomes-tic andforeign

ex-ports

5,9028, 159

8,1598,9339,4128,7878, 6938, 5748, 1448,6928,8838,9709, 1579,288%409

Merct

Total 12

F.

5,8118,045

8,0458,808

[Miffi

tandise e

Domesti

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

a.s. valu

1,0781,269

1,2691,4001,7291,5261,3881,3681, 1461,1771,2671,3801,3551,5091,5381,385

ons of dc

xports

c exports

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

e 5

8951,317

1,3171,2661,5951,3191,3561, 1841, 1971, 1541,2471,3221,1981,1861,3321,218

>Hars; m<

j

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7285,294

5,2945,9175,7475,6585,5535,7365,4656,0446,0985,9976,0916,3066,194

3nthly d

Total*

5,7908,416

8,3548,0129,6177,8807,2858,0227,1036,9627,9137,9678, 1898,2128,2998,746

ata seasc

Mere!

Ger

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

Custom

770892

F.a.s.892827796794821777728893830786

1,003841894801

nally ad

landise i

leral imp

Crudemate-rialsand

fuels

is value

1, 1202,653

value 5

2?6722, 7163,5822,4251,8722,9612,4511,9762,7192,7153,1172,9122,9532,876

justed]

mports

orts 3

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7504,684

4,6024,2574,7934,2864,3844,0503,8283,9504,1964,1934,0494,3324,4404,717

Total(cJLf.

value) 4

6,1319,000

9,0008,618

10, 3578,4507,8448,6147,6417,4998,5008,5758,8128,8408,9339,403

Mer

Ex-portsCf.ajs.)lessim-

ports(cus-tomsvalue)

112-257

-257854

-243870

1,322477956

1,643910953902

1,0001,036

519

shandisebalance

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)lessim-

portsff.a,s.)

— 195

-195921

-205908

1,408552

1,0411,730

§711,003

9681,0761, 110

579

trade

Exports(f.ajs.)

lessimports(c.Lf.)

-229-841

-841315

-945337849

—41503

1, 192384395345448477

-78

1 Total of ofand the

»Total not t© kind,1 Total arrivals of intranslt«C.i.f. and st first ot in tha

tor are

. at U.S. of forat of lor

of of the

23


U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERSThe current account surplus, at $3.5 b!llionf in the third quarter was slightly below the $3.8 billion level of the secondquarter. The decline in the merchandise trade surplus, as imports increased more than exports, was partially offset bylarger service receipts.

+4,547

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS4

BALANCE ON GOODSAND SERVICES

BAiANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT

-31969 1975


[Millions of dollars]

Period

19691970 -19711972197319741975 *

1974: III_—III..IV-.

1975: III...III..IV*

Me

Ex-ports

36, 41442, 46943, 31149, 38871, 37998, 309

107, 250

22,46424,21825,03426,593

27,12925, 65926, 64427, 818

rchandise

Im-ports

-35,807-39,866-45,579-55,797-70,424

-103,586-98,104

-22,587—25,677-27,349-27,973

-25,296-22, 327-24, 687-25, 794

1 2

Netbal-

ance

6072,603

-2,268-6,409

955-5,277

9, 146

-123-1,459—2,315-1,380

1,8333,3321,9572,024

Milit

Directex-

pendi-tures

-4, 856-4, 855-4, 819-4, 784-4, 658-5, 103

-1,166-1,324-1,279-1,335

-1,303-1,209— 1, 113

ary trans

Sales

1,5281,5011,9261, 1632,3422,944

663678766837

954804

1,241

saetions

Netbal-ance

-3,328-3,355-2,893-3, 621-2, 317-2, 158

Season,-503-646—513-498

—349-405

128

Netiment

Pri-vate 3

3,4713,6315,6596,2088, 188

13, 351

illy adju4,0142,7453, 1613,431

2,1652,2352,572

nvest-income

U.S.Gov-ern-ment

156-112-956

— 1,888-3, 009-3,229

sted-769-781-807-872

-989—843-794

Nettraveland

trans-porta-tion

expend-itures

-1,763-2, 023-2, 315— 3, 024-2, 862-2, 692

-513-717-721-741

-572— 393-480

Otherserv-ices,net3

1,8782,2202,5372,8033,2223,830

886936960

1,049

1,0931,0431,095

Bal-anceon

goodsandserv-ices1

1,0202,966-237

-5, 9304,1773,825

2,99278

-235989

3,1785,0154,547

Re-mit-

tances,pen-

sions,and

otheruni-

lateraltrans-fers^

-2, 976-3, 248-3,642-3, 779-3, 841-7, 182

-2, 966-1,865-1,265-1,088

-1, 175— 1, 183-1,047

Bal-anceoncur-rentac-

count

-1,956—281

-3, 879-9, 710

335-3,357

26-1,787-1,500

-99

2,0033,8323,500

* Excludes military grants.3 Adjusted from Census data for differences In timing and coverage;8 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign directInvestments in the United States are excluded from net investment income andincluded in other services, net.

24

NOTE.—Merchandise data for 1975 revised; other data to be revised later.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter, the balance on current account and Ions-term capital rose to $1.6 billion as net private long-termcapital outflows fell. In addition, liquid private capital flows switched from a $2.6 billion outflow in the second quarterto a $4.7 billion inflow in the third quarter.

WIUONS OF DOLLARS BJLUONS OF DOLLARS

BALANCE ONCURRENT ACCOUNT

AND LONG-TERMCAPITAL

OFFICIAL RESERVETRANSACTIONS BALANCE

1966 1975


[Millions of dollars]

Period

196919701971197219731974

1974: IIIIII...IV....

1975: III...Ill »_.

Long-terflows

U.S.Govern-ment *

-1,949-2, 045-2, 376- 1, 334- 1, 490

1, 118

1,41148483

-860-474-.354-563

m capital, net

Private 2

—44-1,434-4, 383

-69177

— 8, 463

264-999

-2, 157-5, 570-2, 199-2,431-1,357

Balanceon

currentaccount

and long-term

capital

-3,949-3, 760

-10,637-11, 113

-977-10,702

1,701-2,302— 3,574-6,529

-6701,0471,580

Non-liquidshort-term

privatecapitalflows,net2

-640—482

-2, 347-1,542-4, 238-12,936

-3,905-5, 26£-1,458-2, 30£

1, 92S-97C

-1, 33£

Allo-cations

ofspecialdraw-

ingrights(SDR)

867717710

Seag

Errorsand

omis-sions,net

— 1,492-476

-9, 698-1,884-2, 436

4,698

sonally ad

1,0141,3131,1351,2362,067

843-37

Netliquid-

itybalance

-6, 081-3,851

-21, 965-13,829-7, 651

-18,940

justed

-1,193-6,254-3,897-7,598

3,326920208

Liquidprivatecapitalflows,net2

8,820-5,988-7, 788

3,4752,343

10,543

1,7452,0544, 0142,730

-6,587-2,634

4,711

Officialreservetrans-actionsbalance

2,739-9, 839

-29, 753- 10, 354-5,308— 8,397

552-4, 200

117-4, 868-3, 261-1,714

4,919

Changesin lia-bilities

toforeignofficial

agencies,net3

-1,5527,362

27, 40510, 3225,0999,831

-3424,558

8864,7313,5861,743

-4, 577

Changesin U.S.officialreserveassets,net 4

- 1, 1872,4772, 348

32209

-1,434

-210— 358

- 1, 003137

-325-29

— 342

U.S.officialreserveassets,

net(end ofperiod)8

16, 96414, 48712, 16713, 15114, 37815, 883

Unad-justed

14, 58814, 94615, 89315, 88316, 25616, 24216, 291

1 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies.2 Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international ands Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government

and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold salesto, and gold deposits with, the United States.

* Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, andtt© U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. Minus sign indicates increase.

• Includes increases (in millions) as follows: 1969, $67 due to revaluation of theGerman mark in Oct. 1969; 1971, $28 due to dollar value of foreign currenciesrevalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31, 1971; 1972, $1,016 due to

change in par value of the dollar on May 8,1972; and 1973, $1,436 due to change inpar value of the dollar on Oct. 18,1973.

Beginning July 1974, SDR and reserve position in the IMF based ©n newmethod of valuation. On a pre-July bads, reserve assets for Sept. 30, 1974 are$15,949 million, for Dec. 31,1974 $15,812 million, for Mar. 31,19f5 $16.106 million,for June 30,1975 $16,157 million, and for Sept. 30,1975 $16,478 million.

NOTE.—See Note, p. 24.Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and

Department of toe Treasury.

25


PRICESIn December the consumer price Index rose 0.4 percent (0,5 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices rose 0.5 percent(0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices increased 0.1 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted)and services prices rose 0.6 percent.

INDEX, 1967«1QO180

130

120

no

100

130

120

110

100'1969 1975

SOURCE. DEPARTMENT Of IA8OJ? COUNOt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Period

19671968 ... .. ...1969 .1970 . ........1971..1972_.1973 . ...1974___,. „ .1975. ....... . .

1974: Nov........................Dec

1975; Jan..... .........Feb........ ..Mar.. ...Apr-Mav _. .....June -,«.July........ .. .........Aug......... .........Sept- . .. .Oct......... _ . ..NovDec........

AHitems

100. 01042109. 8116. 3121. 3125. 3133. 1147.7161. 2

154.3155.4

156.1157. 2157.8158.6159.3160. 6162. 3162. 8163, 6164. 6165.6166.3

All com-modities

100.0103,7ioa4113.5117. 4120. 9129.9145.5158.4

152, 0153.0

153.415<1 4,155. 0155. 7156, 5157.9160. 1160, 4160.8161. 7162.2162.7

Co

Food

ioao103,6108. 91149118. 4123. 51414161.7175. 4

167.8169. 7

170,9171. 6171. 3171. 2171.8174.4178.6178. 1177.8179.0179. 8180.7

mmoditie

Comn

AH

100. 0103. 7ioa i112. 5116, 8119.4123. 5136.6149. I

143. 3143. 9

143.9144. 9146. 0147.2148.1148.9149.9150. 7151.4152.2152.6152. 8

s

icdities lei

Durable

100.0103. 1107.0111. 3116. 5118,9121. 9130. 6145. 5

138.013S. S

139. 3140. 3142.1143. 6144.8145,8146. 9147. 5148. 2148. 9149.2149. 3

38 food

Non-durable

100.0104. 1ioa 8113. 1117. 0119. 8124.8140.9151.7

147.2147.7

147. 2148. 2148. S149. 8150. 5151. 2152. 2153. 0153. 8154. 6155, 1155. 4

AUservices

100. 0105.2112. 5121. 6128. 4133. 3139. 1152,1166. 6

158.7160,1

161. 3162. 6163.2164. 1164. 5165. 7166. G167. 4169. 1170. 11725 0173. 1

Services

Rent

100.0102.4105.7110. 1115. 2119.2-124.3130.6137. 0

133,. 1133.7

1345135. 1135. 5135. 9136. 4136.9137. 3138. 0 !138.4 |139. 3139.9140.6

Serviceslessrent

100. 0105. 7113.8123.7130.8135. 9141. 8156. 0171. 9

163. 31648

166. 2167.5.168. 3169.2169. 6170. 9171. 9172. 7174. 6175. 7177, 7179. (\

Sotroe: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

26


WHOLESALE PRICESThe price 0.3 percent in December (declined 0,4 Prices of

0.1 percent (2.5 com-up 0.4 (0.6 seasonally adjusted).

200

1967=100

120

100

1975

COUNCK. OF ECONOMIC ADVJSKS

[1967=100]

Period

1967— — — —1968_...._._.__ ....

...1970.. ___-_.. .__„1971 — — — .— — —1972... .......... .1973 ..................1974____ .... ......

_ _ . „ „ _ , _ . . _ _Nov.......... .. ..Dec......... ._Jan .............

..........Mar...... — ........Apr..-—..——. !May.--.- — ._ — ..._j_ _ _ _ _

_

Aug— —---..Sept——— _..-_._Oct.... .............Nov.— —..-„....

Alleom-modi-ties

100.0102.5106.5110.4113. 9119. 1134. 7160.1174.9171.9171.5171.8171.3170.4172.1173.2173, 7175. 7176. 7177. 7178. 9178,2178,7

Faraproeessc

Total

100.0102.4ioao111.7113. 8122.4159. 1177.4184.2189. 0186.5183, 8179. 5174917a8181.2182. 31SR2189.0190. 4190. 5188. 1186.0

i productsxi foods a

Farmprod-ucts

100.0102.5109. 1111. 0112. 9125. 0176.3187.7186.7187.8183.7179.7174.6171. 1177.71845186.2193. 7193.2197. 1197, 3191.7

|

5 andad leads

Pf/~»r»

essedfoodsand

feeds

100. 0102.2107. 3112. 11143120.814& 1i7a§182.6189. 7188.2186. 4182. 6177. 3179.4179.0179.71846186.3186. 1186.2182.6181. 0

Indus-trial

commod-ities

ioao102.5106. 0110.01140117.9125. 9isas171.5165.8166.1167.5168. 4168.9169.7170.3170. 7171. 2172.2173. 1 |174.7175. 4176.1 1

Crudemate-rials 1

100.0102. 0110.6118. 8122.7131. 1155.2219. 1225. 1228.7221.2219. 422L 021&422Z7225. 8226. 3223.4225. 8231, 5228. 6226. 5231.2

Spe<

Inter-mediatemate-•Mole 2

100.0102. 6106. 1110. 01143118. 9128. 1159.5178. 6173.0173.2175. 0175.9176,4177, 3177.7177.8178. 3179. 3179. 9181. 4182. 0182,6

sial group

Produc-er fin-ishedgoods

ioao103.5106.9IIL 9116. 6119.512a5141.0162.5154 1155.3157. 4158. 3159. 716tt7161.2161.7162.4163. 0164 0166. 5167.416&0

ingsConsuEished g<eludingDur-able

ioao102.2104 0107.0110.9113,2115. 8126.3138.2133.8135.3135,9i3aa136.9137.0137.0137.3137,4137. 4137. 7141. 1141.8142.2

aer fin-3ods ex-y foods

Non-durable

100.0102.2105. 0108.3111. 3113.6120.5146.8163.0156.2156.9isa-2158.8isa§159.5160,4161.6163.2165. 1166. 1167.2ieao168.9

. * an € and 2 tor

of of 27


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers decreased % percent during the month ended January 15. Contributing most to the declinewere lower prices for cattle, eggs, apples, and lemons. Partially offsetting were higher prices for potatoes, corn, andsoybeans. Prices paid were up 1 percent. Both the actual and adjusted parity ratios were down 1 point.

INDEX, 1967=100 INDEX, 1967=100

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

200

180

160

140

120

100

PRICES RECEIVED(ALL FARM

PRICES PAID,.INTEREST, TAXES, AND

WAGE RATES

RAT110

inn

on90

80

70

60

oyPARITY RATIO (ACTUAL

M^m*'wWW''̂ ^^ u ~+**+u**S X

f ! 1 1 1 1 f ! I f f ! f f 1 1 I ! f M I ! ! 1 f ! 1 ! ! ! 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 f | 1 1 1

1969 . 1970 I 1971 I 1972

>

/\%%%<«M«***

t I ! 1 t I t I 1 ! !

1973

RATIO

»«•«•<,

\\ »*<"i* *'"«•*"'»*,, tfiiw*

I ! 1 1 I ! 1 1 f ! 1 1 I ! f ! ! f 1 f f !•

1974 I 1975

J/no100

on

fiA

70

60

If RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1968 _1969...1970 ,19711972 _19731974 _19751974: Dec 151975: Jan 15

Feb 15Mar 15Apr 15May 15June 15July 15 ._Aug 15Sept 15Oct 15Nov 15Dec 15

1976: Jan 15 3

Prices i

All farmproducts

103108110112126172184181178172

~168165170178182187187194193185187

186

received by

Crops

10197100107116164214194214

201192185188189192199201202199188188188

farmers

Livestockand

products

Index, 3

104117118116134179164172

153153151152157171176180179188190184187185

PricesAll items,interest,taxes, andwage rates967=100

104109114120126145169185179181180179182184185186187189189189189191

paid by far

Familylivingitems

104109114119124138161177173173175173173175176178179180180182182183

mers

Produc-tionitems

102106110115122146172188184182180179185187190190192194192192192

193

Parity

Actual

73747270748881737471696969727375747676737372

ratio J

Adjusted a

79807774799181737472706970737475757777737473

1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to Index of prices paid,Jnterest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.

28

2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly tofarmers,

s Not charted.Source: Department of Agriculture.


MONEY, AND SECURITYMOMEYMi was essentially unchanged from November to January. Growth in M% on the other hand picked up in January.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

200 200

SOURCE. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1976


[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1971 : Dec. „1972: Dec __.1973: Dec..1974: Dec. _1975: Dec..1975: Jan __

Feb..Mar..Apr..May _June.July..Aug..Sept..Oct..Nov..Dec..

1976: Jan3.

Ovej

M,

233.8255. 3270. 5283. 1295.0281.9281.9284. 1284. 9287.6291. 0291. 9293. 2293.6293.4295.7295. 0295.3

rail meas

M2

471.7525. 3571.4612.4663.3614.5618.2623. 0626.7633.7642.4647. 5650.6652.9655. 7661.6663. 3668.6

ures1

M3

745. 1844.9919.5981. 6

1,091.9986. 7994.0

1,003.71,012.71,025.31,040.21,051.61,060.61,068.11,075.61,086.01,091.9

Cur-rency

52.656.961. 567.873. 768.268.769. 469. 570. 271.071. 371.972.072.673.473.774. 1

Depo

Demand

181.3198. 4209.0215. 3221.3213.7213.2214. 7215. 4217.4220. 0220. 6221. 3221. 6220.8222. 3221. 3221.2

Compon

sits at co

Tim

Total

271. 2313.6364.4419. 1451.2425. 4428.3428. 7430. 1431. 2435.5437. 6436.2438. 3443. 2447. 6451.2452.8

ents and

mmercia

e and sa1

LargeCD's

33.343.663. 589. 882.992.792. 189. 888. 485. 184. 182. 178.879. 180.981. 882.979.5

related it

I banks

vings

Other

237. 8270.0300.9329. 3368. 3332. 6336.2339. 0341. 8346.1351. 4355. 5357.4359. 2362. 3365.9368.3373.3

ems

Depositsat

nonbankthrift

institu-tions

273.4319. 6348.0369. 2428.6372.2375.9380.7386.0391.6397. 8404. 1410.0415.2420.0424.4428.6

U.S. Gov-ernmentdemanddeposits

(unadjust-ed)

6.97.46. 34. 94. 24.03. 33. 84. 04. 14.23.42. 73.93.43.54.2as

Perchai

Mj

6.59. 26.04.74.22.21.73. 12.73.65. 77.28.26.86. 15.72.82.3

sentige2

M3

11.411.48.87.28. 35. 65.96.96.57.7

10. 011.010.89.89.59.06.66.6

1 Mi is currency plus demand deposits; M.% is Mi plus time deposits at com-pnereial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CD's); and Ms is Ms plusdeposits at nonbank thrift institutions.2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes arefrom 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

8 Average of 4 weeks ending January 28.

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1959.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;

29


-by 9 December 1974 to December 1975. Growfh concentrated In the

which rose by 14 Short-term on the other hand declined by 4

OF1,300

OF

1̂ 200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

AVERAGES OF DAJW

TOTAi LIQUID ASSETS.,

I I 1 I I I I I ! M

1969LJJ M I M M I

1970I f M 1 I f M t I

1971 1972

CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS

M I.M M M t t1973

? t f f f I t f \ ! !1974

f t t M I f I I f II

1975

1,101

tow

900

300

700

600

500

SOUtCi» BOAKG OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL 8ESERVE SYSTEM COUNQl OF ECONOMIC ,<vPVTSERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1969: Dec... .1970: Dec .1971: Dee_-1972: Dec....... ......1973: Dec—......1974: Dec

Dec »*_-.,

OctNovDec

Jan.. .....FebMar.............Apr__ .»__ , _May... _-_.._....

.. ..........

Aug_» .S e p t _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

...N G Y _ _ . . _ _ .......

..«...„..

Totalliquidassets

737. 1786.7868. 7980.2

1, 093. 51, 184. 71, 293. 6

1, 175. 31, 179. 91, 184 7

1, 191. 81, 199. 41, 208. 01, 217. 31, 226. 61, 243. 61, 253. 71, 257. 61, 265. 21, 273. 21, 284 01, 293. 6

Total

583.0634.4721. 1816.0886. 3941. 2

1, 053. 1

931 7938. 6941. 2

944. 8952. 8963.9973.3985.4

1, 002. 51, 013, 21, 021. 61, 028. 51, 035. 51, 047. 21, 063. 1

Cum

Cur-rency

46. 149. 152.656. 961. 667. 973. 7

66. 567.467.9

68.268.769.469. 570.271.17L471. 972.072.573.47B.7

sncy and ^

Demanddeposits

144715a2161.7175.2181, 5183. 1190. 1

183.71846183. 1

isao180,6182.2183. 1184618&0188.3188. 7189. 0188.2190.7190. 1

ieposits

Time d

Com-mercialbanks

177.3199.2233. 626472948321. 9363.3

318.5320. 6321.9

325. 1328.3331.4334033a23443348. 3350. 8352. 935(1 2360.4363. 3

Ieposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-tions

215.0232.9273.2319. 1347.4368. 3426.0

363.1366.0368.3

371.5375.3380.9386. 8392.4399. 1405.2410.2414.6418.7422.8426. G

U.S. Gment se

Savingsbonds

51.151. 353. 757. 059. 962. 866.9

62. 362.662.8

63.263.563.864 164464 765, 165. 565.866.266.666.9

rovern-curities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

64953.239. 639.852. 160. 161.7

60.960.860. 1

61.060.259.459.759.560.661.761 161.561. 161. 161.7

Nego-tiableeertifif

cates ofdeposit

ai2ai30.339. 958. 179. 972.8

77.276.079,9

82.582.380, 078.875.774072. 0§8.469,471.070,972.8

Com-mercialpaper

28.' 924 724027^638.34ae39,0

43.24L84ae40.340.64L 141.44L74L84L741.040.039.539.139,0

of ©f the

30


BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVESand rose slpgfkhly in the last 3 months of 1975. Commercial and Industrial grew by 3.0

by 2.4 percent (both

OFtoo

OF

700

600

500

300

200

AIL or

TOTALLOANS AND INVESTMENTS

Q| t t I I I l . f I I I I M I I I ! I I I I I

BANK LOANS

INVESTMENT INUS, GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

f I t ! t I I I S f t

1970

SOUKS KJW® Of ©OVSIN08S Of WE FiDERAt RESERVE

f t t f f f I t f t t

1972

NVESTMW IN OTTO SECURITIES

\MUWMMIMtltlMIIMMI

1973r f r ? r f f ? i.! r

1974

/OO

600

500

400

300

200

100

1975

COUNCIL OF ECONGWC

End of period

1970..—.. — — .1971. .. — ...1972-....— .....1973... . .1974... „.

....... .Dec— —Jan _...___Feb........

_„......_........

„ „ _ _ „ _ ____

July......*____»..

Oct » S».

Dee » _ _ _ _ _ !

s of figure1

onto J.

«

Totalloansand

invest-ments

435,5484.8556.4630. 3

5 687. 1717.2

§ 687. 1esao692.6697.0699. 1702. 0705. 0706. 4710. 4711. 6715.0721.3717. 2

!u

js. Annual d1972,be fi

p

All(seaso

L

Total,exclud-

ing inter-bank

291. 7320.3377.8447.349a2494 7498.2501.3498.9498.3495.0492.8489.9489.6490. 7490. 4494. 1 i498.0494, 7 1

its are for DMl tO5f S

S

commercialnally adjust

cans

C/om-mereial

indus-trial

Billions

nao115. 9129.7155.8182.6177.7182,6184.1182. 5180.9180.5179.1176. 3177. 6177. 5176. 4177. 9178, 9177. 7

yants in

8» In con

is-

banksed data)

Investi

UJ3. Gov-ernmentsecurities

of dollars

57.960. 161.952.84as77.948.848, 753. 258.564.088, 272.473.475.677.175.176.377.9

e

nents

Othersecuri-

ties

85.9104. 4116.7130.2140. 11440140.1140.0140,5140. 2140, 1141. 0142.7143.4144.1144. 1145.8147.0144,6

]

Bankdebitsoutside

New YorkCity (232centers)!

seasonallyadjustedannualrates 1

5,7176,4487S6§0

11, 67S12, 187is, set11, 69612, 03211, 98911, 89511, 91S11, 891If, 11512, 841If, 59712, 386If, 5S8If, 64S

.sg a

©f

J

Totalreserves1

29,26531, 32931, 35335, 06836, 94134, 9683% 94137, 492355 56534, 77935, 13434, 49234, 97634, 65534, 4-8234, 64634, 56734, 571 i34? 968 1

ii3g 105to toy $1J

ill mem.be

Excessa

Millions o

272165219262339240339

-64232266120— 1548

-32217199156290240 1

tots

i. S*©?

al S

r banks s

Borrow-at

FederalReserveBanks4

f dollars

321107

1?04§1,298

70S12f70339014710611060

27126121139619161

129i

bion oa

Freereserves *

-4958

-830-1,036

—3§4111

-364— 454

8516010

-61277

-2936

-197-35229111

500

81


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


Period

1966.1967196819691970 _19711972 ...1973 .19741974: I_.

IIIII. _IV

1975:1 .__II.. -.III

TVvfeil

97.394.0

113.6118.1103.7120.4148.0176.2183.3196.3210.3176.4150. 190. 1

129.8150.3

Inter-nal i

61.261.561.760.759.468.078.784.681.585.380.575.384.890. 198.2

109.7

Total

36.132.551.957.444.252.569.391.6

101.8111.0129.8101.165.3

.031.640.6

Sources

Credi

TVyf ol

25.329.631. 538.939.546. 855. 367.277.175.491.672.868.727.229. 329.8

External

t market

Long-term2

15.721.618.420.030. 741.839.334.536.337. 543.125.239.352.052. 939. 6

funds

Short-term3

9.68.0

13.218.98.85.0

16.032.740.838.048.747.429.4

-24.9— 23. 7-9.7

Other

10. 93.0

20.418.54.85. 7

14.024.524.735.638.228.3

-3.4—27. 1

2.410.7

Total

89. 188.2

104.0112. 197.0

110.3133.3162.4169.7189.7195. 1160.2133.576. 1

114.5133. 7

Uses

Pur-chase

ofphysi-

calassets 4

76.571.475.083.784. 087.2

102. 5121. 5125.9124.3127.8122.4129.295. 177.8

102. 5

In-crease

infinan-

cialassets

12. 616.829.028.412.923. 130.840.943.865.467. 337. 84. 3

— 19.036. 731.2

Dis-crep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

8.25.89. 66.06.7

10.214.813.813.66.7

15.316.216.614. 015.316.5

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation adjustment) and capitalconsumption allowances.

2 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.

2 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,and Government loans.

* Plant and equipment, residential structures, and inventory investment.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars]

End ofperiod

1966196719681969197019711972197319741974: !____

!!___III..W _ _

1975: I....II—III._

Total

3640386.2426.5473.6492.3529. 6573. 5643. 3712. 2666.2685.4708. 6712.2698. 4703.2716.5

Cashon

handandin

banks 1

41.945.548. 247.950.253. 357. 561. 662.759.458. 860. 362. 760. 663. 765.6

Ci

U.S.Gov-ern-

mentsecuri-ties2

13.010.311. 510.67.7

11. 09.3

11.011.712. 110. 711. 011.712. 112.7143

irrent ass<

Receiv-ablesfromU.S.f**r\trVjrOV-

ern-ment 3

455. 15. 1484 23. 53.43.53.53.23.43. 53.53.23.33.3

3tS

Notesandac-

countsreceiv-

able

142. 1150.2168.8192.2201. 9217. 6240. 0266. 1289.7276.2289. 8295. 5289. 7281. 9284 82947

Inrven-tories

142. 8153. 1166.0186.4193. 3200. 4215. 2246. 7288.0258.4269. 2282. 1288. 0285.2281. 4279.6

Othercur-rentas-

sets 4

19. 722. 026. 931.635.043.848. 154 456.656.953.556. 156. 655. 457. 359.0

Total

199. 4211. 3244 1287.8304 9326. 0352. 2401. 0450. 6416. 0431. 5449. 1450. 6438. 0434 24447

Cur

Ad-vances

andpre-pay-

ments,U.S.Gov-ern-

ment 3

445.86.47.36. 64.940435.2454 75. 15.25.35.86.2

rent liab

Notesandac-

countspay-able

133. 1141. 3162.4191.92047215. 6230. 4261. 6287.5266.5278. 5287. 0287. 5271. 2270. 1273.4

ilities

Fed-eralin-

cometax

liabili-ties

17.413.214312. 610. 013. 115. 118. 123.220. 619. 022. 723. 221. 817.719. 4

Othercur-rentlia-bili-ties

44551. 061. 076. 083. 692. 4

102. 6117.0134 81244129. 1134.31348139. 8140. 6145. 6

Network-ingcapi-tal

16461749182.4185.7187.4203. 6221. 3242. 3261. 5250. 2253. 9259.5261. 5260. 4269. 0271.8

* Includes time certificates of deposit.2 Includes Federal agency issues.3 Beeeivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not includeamounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from

32

subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government.Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Governmentadvances offset against inventories on corporations' books.

* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities andtime certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.


YIELDSIn January short-ferm interest rates continued the decline which had started in early October. By the end of Januaryshort-term rates were near or below their recession lows of last June.

PERCENT PK ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS(MOODrS)

1969 1975

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BElOW COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[ Percent per annum]

Period

1970197119721973197419751975: Feb

MarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec__

1976: JanWeek ended:

1976: Jan 2 6.9 8 _ _

16 6 __2 3 6 _ _3 0 6 _ _

Feb 6 6

U.S. Gov3-monthTreasury

bills1

6.4584. 3484.0717. 0417.8865.8385.5835. 5445.6945. 3155. 1936. 1646.4636. 3836.0815.4685. 5044. 961

5.2085.2264.8264.7834.7634.811

ernment secu

3-5 yearissues 2

7.375.775.856.927.817.556.857.007.767.497.267.728. 128.227.807.517.507. 18

7.287.207.147.187.167.16

rity yields

Taxablebonds 3

6.595.745.636.306.996.986. 616.737.036. 996. 866. 897.067.297.297.217. 176. 94

7. 056. 966. 906. 936.946.93

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 4

6.515.705. 275. 186. 096.896. 306. 616.836. 816.766.947.027.237. 227.217.066.80

6.996. 876.826. 746.786.85

Corpora(Moc

Aaa

8. 047.397.217.448. 578.838. 628.678. 958. 908. 778. 848. 958.958.868. 788. 798.60

8.668.638.608.588.578.56

te bonds>dy's)

Baa

9. 118.568.168.249.50

10.3910. 4310. 2910. 3410.4610.4010.3310. 3510.3810.3710. 3310.3510.24

10.3310. 3110.2610.2010.1610.14

Primecommercial

paper,4-6

months7. 725. 114. 698. 159.876.336.336.066.155. 825.796.446.706.866.485.915. 975. 27

5.815.405.235.235. 135. 13

FHAnew homemortgageyields s

9. 057.787.538.08,9.479.228.998.848.69

9. 169.069. 139.329.749.539.419.32

1 Rate on new issues within period.s Selected note and bond issues.8 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after.4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.6 Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate

C9 percent beginning Sept. 2,1975) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years.

6 Not charted.Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Board of Gover-

nors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard& Poor's Corporation.

33


COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGSStock offer sagging slightlyjnjPgg^mb^ rebgjmdgdshgpjyjnlcniucpy.

120

mK»

SO

70

COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR500 COMMON STOCKS

50PERCENT

2

l i i [..i...n t i I | j! .! j ! 1 .t LjJjLLLLJ^ ...1 1 ..LI. t 1 t I I I t T T t I f I t f I

120

110

10@

90

70

60

50

IT i~TTT<T\ i i I M t t i I M..I i ri t i f i T t i t i i I i t t i

DIVIDEND VIED ON COMMON STOCKS

I I ! f t ! I ! f 1 1 1 f 1 3 ! 1 I I 1 f ? 1 I ? I 1 1 1 I I 1 I I 1 II I I~M

15

5

"^-^-

i t f lF- 196?

-, ^^*>***^^ r

l l i1970

RICE/EARNINGS RATIC

1 1 !

1971

/ON COMMON STC

i i i1972

X%x*^_^CKS " "̂̂ x ,̂

l i t1973

•— ̂ ^— -^^^^^^\

1 t f ? ? f K

1974 I 1975 *

RATIO

SOURCEt STAi«JA8!3 & POOR'S COSPOUAtlOH COUNCR. OF £CONO;VjC

Period

1970.... —1971 ——.——.1972___._. .1973. , . .1974_._» -1975_ „ „ _ _ „ » -„_— . .

Jan.— ——. —Feb.. — .Mar. „ _ > _ _ „ . „ _ _ .Apr ..Mav.— ._ ._ ._____. . ._June_^ „„_»„„„„„_« .__July — .. — ..Aug« _.......,,...__....__Sept— — . ....Oct..................Nov__, _ « _ » , _ .Dec........

.........

Dee 26__,__ ........Jan 2 4 ...........

9 ............16 ..—._.23 ....30 .̂............

Feb 7*.... ..........

1

Total

83. 229a 29

109. 20107. 4382.8586. 1672.5680, 1083. 7884 7290. 1092.4092.4985. 7184.6788. 5790.0788.70§6. 86

89. 1590.2593. 9296. 5398.5399.65

100, 76

Total

91.29ioa 35121. 79120. 4492.919a 5680.5089,2993. 9095.27

101. 56103. 68103. 8496.2194.9699.29

100. 8699. 31

108. 45

99. 82100. 97105. 05108. 07110. 37111. 68iiaoo

Price JIndustrials

Capitalgoods

1941--̂87. 87

loaso119. 39118. 5792.8494.6377, 1088,5092. 7896.76

101. 96101. 1510L1593.0593. 6195. 7797.3596.41

108. 41

97. 3498. 28

102. §8107. 87110. 68112, 39117, 38

index 1

Consumers'goods

13=108a2299. 78

113. 91107. 1378. 0881.1867.9175. 0680.4280.7585. 1585.9886.5878.2977.2583.0788. 0185.6691.03

85.8886. 0489. 3891. 7791. 6691. 29 i94. 25 !

Publicutilities

54.4859. 3356. 9053.4738.914L 1738. 1940. 3739, 5538. 1939.6943. 6743.6740.6140.5342. 5943. 7743.2546. 99

43. 4344. 3546. 2046. 8747. 49 j47. 81 i47, 94 j

Railroads

32. 134L9444. 1138. 0137.5337.4837.3137.8038.353& 5538.9038. 94

j35. 13 !34 93 j36. 92 |

!37. 0741.42

37, 3238, 1240. 06-II. 40 !42, 42 |f o .3 er !^t^, 6O42. 93

Dividendyield 2

(percent)

3. 833. 142. 843. 064.474315,074. 614. 424.344,084. 024.024.364,394. 224, 074 143.80

4, 114, 083.913. 783.743,753. 63

Price/earningsratio 8

I5.it18.50-

i4s a

11.04

-......._ .

* 500 425 66 and 20for an

tl are ©fon by

ttM of the In the

34

are of Weekly data ore8 of for last of to

are of Quarterly

&


The budget deficit for fiscal 1976 and 1977 are $76,0 billion and $43,0 billion^ respectively.

450OP DOI1ARS

450

200

150

50

-50

-100

W OR DEFICIT [-)50

-50

-100

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973FISCAL YEARS

1974 1975 1976 1977


[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiseal year:1967......1968, . ...1969

1970.... . ..1971........«...1972 . ... ..1973 ....1974 ........ .

1975 . . .1976 *...... .

Transition quarter2

1977 ».... ..... ..

Cumulative totals for first 6 months:Fiscal year 1975 ...... _ » _ _ _ . _Fiscal year 1976-,.,. _.. _ _ _ _

Receipts

149.615a7187.8

193. 7isa42oa 6232. 2264 9

281. 0297.58L9

351.3

139.613a5

Outlays

15a317a81845

wae211.4231.9246^526a4

3246373,598.0

3942

isa i1845

Surplus ordeficit (— )

-a 7— 25.2

a2-2.8

-23.0-2a2-14.3—a 5

-43.6— 76.0-16. 1—43. 0

— 13. 5— 45. 1

Federal debt (

Total *

341.3369.8367. 1

382.6409. 5437. 3468.4486. 2

544 163&9652.8719.5

5040587.6

end of period)

Held bythe public

267.5290. 6279.5

284.93043323. 8343.0346. 1

39a9484 45044558.2

360.8446.3

»Bxetades ftoa-interest-bearing public securities held t>j IMF;a The Budget of the Year

Department of the Treasury and Office of Management Budget.'

35


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONFiscal 1976 budget receipts are estimated at $297.5 billion and budget outlays at $373.5 billion. The correspondingfigures for fiscal 1977 are $351.3 billion and $394.2 billion, respectively.

KLL1ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

250

200

150

100

50

OUTLAYS

NONDEFENSE

NATIONAL DEFENSE

_L I 1 _L

300

250

200

150

too

501968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFRCE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1974 1975 1976 1977

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars)

Period

Fiscal year;19671968.1969

1970—1971 __1972 _ _1973_.._1974__

19751976 *

Transition quarter *19771

Cumulative totals forfirst 6 months:

Fiscal year 1975 ___Fiscal year 1976__>

Total

149. 6153.7187.8

193.7188.4208. 6232.2264. 9

281.0297.581.9

351.3

139.6139.5

Recei]

Individualincometaxes

61.568.787.2

90.486.294.7

103.2119.0

122.4130.840.0

153.6

67.565.8

pts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

34. 028.736.7

32.826. 832.236. 238.6

40.640. 18.4

49.5

16.216.1

Other

54.156.363. 9

70. 575.481.792.8

107.4

118.0126.733.5

148.2

55.957.5

Total

158. 3178. 8184. 5

196.6211.4231. 9246.5268.4

324.6373.598.0

394.2

15ai184.5

Nationa

Total

69. 179.480.2

79.376.877.475. 178.6

86.692.825.0

101. 1

42.646.2

(

1 defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

67.577.477.9

77.274.575.273.377.6

85.089.824.599.6

41.94ao

Outlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

4.74.63.8

3. C3. 13.73.03.6

4.45.71.36.8

1.82.1

Healthand

incomesecurity

37.643.449. 0

56. 170.181.491. 8

106.5

136.3160.641.0

171.5

62. 17&2

In-terest

12.513.815.8

18.319.620.622. 828. 1

31.034.89.8

41.3

15.316.9

i

Other

34.337.735.7

39.341.84as53.95L7

66,479.620.873.5

31.441.2

* Estimates from The Budget of the United States Government, Fwcal Year 1977.

36Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.


ACCOUNTSin the fourth quarter, expenditures rose $10.4 billion, compared to a $11.5 billion increase in the quarter before.With receipts excluding corporate profits tax accruals up $7.1 billion in the fourth quarter, the growth in total receiptsis expected to be similar to that of expenditures so that the deficit will show little change.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BfLUONS OF DOLLARS

160

Q

-40

— -Rn

-120

SURPLUSm m

DERCIT

1968

SOURCE* DEPARTMENT C

m m mi «™

1969

F COMMERCE

mmW

1970

iiii

1971

*I*i

1972CALENDAR YEARS

1973

""""I

1974

|I1y/tw

19

ii75

couNCIt C

1976

W ECONOMIC ADVISERS

—An

o/v""OU1

•*-120


Period

Fiscal year:1973197419751976 i1977 iCalendar

year:19721973197419751

1974: !___.II...III..IV._.

1975: !____IIin..IV*.

Total

240.0271.6281.5307.4364.7

227.5257.9288.4283.5

275.7285.6299.2293. 1

283.6250. 1293.3

Federal (

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

107.3122.9126.4136.4160.4

108.2114.7131.4125.6

124.2129.5134.6137.4

137.699.3

130.5135.2

jr overrun

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

40.543.640.647.558.2

36.642. 545.940.2

43. 145.851.842.9

32. 135.543.4

ent reeeip

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

20.721.422.424.024.3

20.021.221.724.2

21.321. 722. 121.7

22.323.525.525.4

ts

Contri-butions

forsocial in-surance

71.583.792.099.5

121.8

62.879.489.493.5

87.288.690.891. 1

91.791.993.996.4

Total

256. 1278.7328.7378.7404.5

244.7264.8300. 1356.9

281. 1293. 5307.2318.6

337.4352.3363.8374.2

Fee

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

101.5104.5117.6130.0139.4

102. 1102.0111.7123. 1

106.1108.9113.6118.2

119.4119.2124.2129.8

leral Go^

Trans-fer pay-ments

89.7104.7134.8158.7168.2

83.295. 8

117.7149.2

107.0114.9121.2127,8

139.2150. 5152.5154.5

^ernmenl

Grants-in-aid

to Stateandlocal

govern-ments

40.441.64&357.859.3

37.540.643.9542

42. 743.444.045.4

50.152.856.857.1

; expendi

Netinterest

paid

15.919.822.026.032.0

14.618.221.023.5

19:920.821.422.0

22. i22.623.425.7

tures

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises

9.17.95.7a25.6

7.88.25.26.8

5.35.05.55.1

6.37.16.97.0

Less:Wage

accrualslessdis-

burse-ments

0.5-.1-.4

.0

.0

.5

.0-.5

.0

.0-.6

— 1.5.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Surplusor

deficit(->' ,national

incomeand

productaccounts

-16.1-7.1

—47.2-71.3-39.8

-17.3-6.9

-11.7-73.4

-5.3-7.9-8.0

-25.5

-53.7— 102.2-70.5

i Estimates. Note.—Series revised. See Survey of Current Business, January 1976.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

37


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WASHINGTON, D.C< 2O4O2

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First-Class Mail

ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND Page

Gross National Product.. .. ^ , ...-,..-..,-. .,„*~ „„„„ *..; .. -.., IGross National Product In 1972 Dollars .. .. ™ .7* ̂ ̂ *-* *. v...... ..... *,. «. 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product.. . . . - . „-. -.-..... * * 2National Income ................ 3Sources of Personal Income 4Disposition of Personal Income .. 5Farm Income — .......... 6Corporate Profits , , 7Gross Private Domestic Investment , , 8Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT,Status of the Labor Force 10Selected Unemployment Rates * * . . . .* . . , . . . 11Unemployment Insurance Programs „ 12Nonagricultural Employment 13Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries. 14Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries ... „ 15

PRODUCTION AND ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 16Production of Selected Manufactures ...... 17Weekly Indicators of Production 18New Construction 19New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing 20Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade. 21Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 22Merchandise Exports and Imports 23U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers 24U.S. Oveiall Balances on International Transactions 25

PRICESConsumer Prices. ... „ . 26Wholesale Prices.., .. . . . . , . .„ 27Prices Received and Paid by Farmers .,„... 28

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock 29Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors , 30Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves 31Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business. *•* 32Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations. » , . * • . » . * . . , . . . . . 32Bond Yields and Interest Rates 33Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings, 34

Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt....... ̂ .. __.«.. . . . .„. . . , . . . . . . . . ".. . . . . 35Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function....... .^ ., .̂ . .. 36Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis. . ... „ ^. 37

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