Economic impacts of climate change on supply and … impacts of climate change on supply and demand...

Economic impacts of climate Economic impacts of climate change on supply and demand change on supply and demand

of food in the worldof food in the world

Jun Furuya, Jun Furuya, ShintaroShintaro Kobayashi (JIRCAS)Kobayashi (JIRCAS)Seth D. Meyer (MUSeth D. Meyer (MU--FAPRI)FAPRI)

International Symposium on Climate Change & Food Security in South Asia At Pan Pacific Sonargaon Dhaka HotelAugust 25-30, 2008

Session 5 : Mitigation and adaptation optionsin different agro-ecosystems of South Asia

TopicsTopics

Higher temperature and agricultureHigher temperature and agriculture

Estimation of yield functionEstimation of yield function

World food modelWorld food model

Deterministic analysesDeterministic analyses

Stochastic analysesStochastic analyses

Rising temperatureRising temperature

0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius increased in 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius increased in 2020thth centurycentury

Cause:Cause:�� Increase of GHG (CO2)Increase of GHG (CO2)

�� Sun spot activitySun spot activity

Increasing CO2 densityIncreasing CO2 density

280280280280

300300300300

320320320320

340340340340

360360360360

380380380380

400400400400

1959

1959

1959

1959

1964

1964

1964

1964

1969

1969

1969

1969

1974

1974

1974

1974

1979

1979

1979

1979

1984

1984

1984

1984

1989

1989

1989

1989

1994

1994

1994

1994

1999

1999

1999

1999

2004

2004

2004

2004

CO

2 d

ensity (

ppm

)C

O2 d

ensity (

ppm

)C

O2 d

ensity (

ppm

)C

O2 d

ensity (

ppm

)

At Mauna loa observatory, University of California

Relationship between crop Relationship between crop production and higher temperatureproduction and higher temperatureHigh temperature injuryHigh temperature injury�� Oxygen deficit in a stemOxygen deficit in a stem�� Deteriorates proteinDeteriorates protein

Increase of insect damageIncrease of insect damage�� Higher temperature increase the number of Higher temperature increase the number of

insectsinsects

DroughtDrought�� Higher temperature leads decreasing rainfallHigher temperature leads decreasing rainfall�� Water shortage leads growth retardantWater shortage leads growth retardant

PurposePurpose

Climatic changes probably make large impacts on Climatic changes probably make large impacts on agricultural production and food market.agricultural production and food market.Climatologist and crop scientists estimates yield Climatologist and crop scientists estimates yield functions including climatic variables.functions including climatic variables.We estimated (macro) yield functions and replace We estimated (macro) yield functions and replace them with yield functions of the world model.them with yield functions of the world model.We examine possible impacts of climatic change We examine possible impacts of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural market by using stochastic world agricultural market by using stochastic version of world food model.version of world food model.

Estimation of Yield FunctionsEstimation of Yield Functions

SpecificationSpecification�� lnlnYHYHtt==aa++bb11TT++bb22lnlnTMPTMPtt++bb33lnlnPRCPRCtt (1)(1)

YHYH: Yield, : Yield, TT: trend,: trend,TMPTMP: temperature,: temperature, PRCPRC: precipitation: precipitation

�� (Heading Season: 1(Heading Season: 1--2 months before harvest s.)2 months before harvest s.)

�� dlndlnYHYHtt==aa++bb22dlndlnTMPTMPtt++bb33lnlnPRCPRCtt (2)(2)dlndlnYHYHtt=ln=lnYHYHtt--lnlnYHYHtt--11

EstimationEstimation�� OLS, AR OLS, AR �� serial correlationserial correlation

Unit Root TestUnit Root Test�� Augmented DickeyAugmented Dickey--Fuller Test (10%)Fuller Test (10%)

Data of yield functionsData of yield functions

YieldYield�� FAOFAO--STATSTAT

Temperature, rainfallTemperature, rainfall�� GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network)GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network)

Flowering season (months) are selected using Flowering season (months) are selected using cropping calendarcropping calendar�� USDA USDA

Cropping regions are selected in large countries Cropping regions are selected in large countries such as the USAsuch as the USA�� USDAUSDA

Maize planting region in the USAMaize planting region in the USA

378 stations

This map was originally drawn by the USDA and modified.

Elasticity of yield for temperature Elasticity of yield for temperature and rainfalland rainfall

WheatWheat

--0.0710.071--0.5850.585ChinaChina

0.0500.050--0.3330.333IndiaIndia

0.6360.636--0.4540.454ExEx--USSRUSSR

--0.1170.117--1.0761.076EUEU

0.0020.002--0.3270.327USAUSA

RainfallRainfallTemp.Temp.CountryCountry

Elasticity of yieldElasticity of yield

0.1860.186--1.2261.226USAUSA

0.1360.136--0.2110.211EUEU

0.4170.417--2.2222.222E. EuropeE. Europe

0.0540.054--0.0120.012BrazilBrazil

0.1970.197--0.9670.967ChinaChina

MaizeMaize



If temperature increases 1 %,the yield of maize in the USA will decrease 1.226%.

Elasticity of yield for temperature Elasticity of yield for temperature and rainfall (contand rainfall (cont’’d)d)

0.0830.083--1.0611.061USAUSA

--0.0170.017--0.7720.772EUEU

0.4230.423--0.1100.110AustraliaAustralia

--0.0130.013--0.5290.529E. EuropeE. Europe

0.3600.360--2.0702.070ExEx--USSRUSSR

Other Coarse GrainsOther Coarse Grains



--0.0040.004--1.1251.125USAUSA

0.0080.008--2.0232.023IndiaIndia

--0.0380.038--0.0820.082IndonesiaIndonesia

0.1520.1520.0780.078ThailandThailand

--0.0280.028--0.2700.270ChinaChina

RiceRice



Elasticity of yield for temperature Elasticity of yield for temperature and rainfall (contand rainfall (cont’’d)d)

0.2200.220--0.7910.791USAUSA

0.0670.0670.1410.141BrazilBrazil

0.0670.067--1.2481.248ArgentinaArgentina

0.1310.1310.1150.115IndiaIndia

0.1310.1310.2760.276ChinaChina

SoybeansSoybeans



Structure of the world food modelStructure of the world food model

Yield function: double log formYield function: double log form�� YHYH==ff(time trend, temperature, rainfall)(time trend, temperature, rainfall)

World food model (IFPSIM)World food model (IFPSIM)�� 14 commodities14 commodities

�� 32 countries or regions32 countries or regions

�� Structures of IMPACT (IFPRI) and WFM (FAO) Structures of IMPACT (IFPRI) and WFM (FAO) are same as that of IFPSIMare same as that of IFPSIM

�� Program: FORTRAN90Program: FORTRAN90

YieldHarv.area

Production

Supply

Netimports

Stockchange

Worldprice

Demand

GDP

Population

Temperature

Rainfall

WorldSum=0

Leader

one year later

Harvested area, demandof other countries

TariffDom.price

Othercountries

Flowchart of world food modelFlowchart of world food model(Crop sector)(Crop sector)

Crop production in the USACrop production in the USA(Annual increase rate)(Annual increase rate)

-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5

0.00.00.00.0

0.50.50.50.5

1.01.01.01.0

1.51.51.51.5

2.02.02.02.0

(%)(%)(%)(%)

WheatWheatWheatWheat MaizeMaizeMaizeMaize O.C.GrainsO.C.GrainsO.C.GrainsO.C.Grains RiceRiceRiceRice SoyBeansSoyBeansSoyBeansSoyBeans

BaselineBaselineBaselineBaseline Rising temp.(A2)Rising temp.(A2)Rising temp.(A2)Rising temp.(A2)

Livestock production in the USALivestock production in the USA(Annual increase rate)(Annual increase rate)

-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2

0.00.00.00.0

0.20.20.20.2

0.40.40.40.4

0.60.60.60.6

0.80.80.80.8

1.01.01.01.0

1.21.21.21.2

1.41.41.41.4

1.61.61.61.6

1.81.81.81.8

(%)(%)(%)(%)

BeefBeefBeefBeef PorkPorkPorkPork PoultryPoultryPoultryPoultry EggEggEggEgg F.MilkF.MilkF.MilkF.Milk


Impact of rising temperature on the Impact of rising temperature on the world wheat productionworld wheat production

Impact of rising temperature on the Impact of rising temperature on the world maize productionworld maize production

Impact of rising temperature on the Impact of rising temperature on the world other coarse grain productionworld other coarse grain production

Impact of rising temperature on the Impact of rising temperature on the world rice productionworld rice production

Impact of rising temperature on the Impact of rising temperature on the world soybeans productionworld soybeans production

Crop production in the worldCrop production in the world(Annual increase rate)(Annual increase rate)

1.41.41.41.4

1.51.51.51.5

1.61.61.61.6

1.71.71.71.7

1.81.81.81.8

1.91.91.91.9

2.02.02.02.0

(%)(%)(%)(%)

WheatWheatWheatWheat MaizeMaizeMaizeMaize O.C.GrainsO.C.GrainsO.C.GrainsO.C.Grains RiceRiceRiceRice SoyBeansSoyBeansSoyBeansSoyBeans


Stochastic analysisStochastic analysis

The temperature and rainfall variables The temperature and rainfall variables entering into the yield functions are entering into the yield functions are exogenous to the world food model.exogenous to the world food model.

To evaluate the effect of changes in To evaluate the effect of changes in temperature and rainfall during flowering or temperature and rainfall during flowering or silkingsilking seasons on the world food model, seasons on the world food model, these climatic variables must be these climatic variables must be endogenizedendogenized in a model.in a model.

Climatic data estimationClimatic data estimation

Linear functionLinear function�� TMPTMPijtijt = = aaTT

ijij + + bbTTijijTT

�� PRCPRCijtijt = = aaRRijij + + bbRR

ijijTT

�� ii: country, : country, jj: crop, : crop, TT: time trend: time trend

% error correlation coefficient% error correlation coefficient�� 19611961--20002000

Estimation of trend for forecastingEstimation of trend for forecasting�� 20012001--20502050

Flowchart of creating random Flowchart of creating random climatic dataclimatic data

ActualTMP,PRC

EstimatedTMP,PRC

(DDC)

ErrorsCountry

Corr. Matrixof error

SortedErrors

EmpiricalCDF

CorrelatedStd. Norm.

Random no.

CorrelatedEmpiricalDist. Error

Std. Norm.Random no.

Sample ofTMP,PRC

EstimatedTMP,PRC(Had-A2)

Std. Norm.CDF

CorrelatedUniform

Random no.

Flowchart of simulation of stochastic Flowchart of simulation of stochastic modelmodel

SimulationResults 1

SimulationResults 2

SimulationResults 150

Yieldfunction

Production,Price

TMP,PRCSample 1

TMP,PRCSample 2

TMP,PRCSample 150

World Food Model

Data of simulationData of simulation

Temperature, Rainfall (1961Temperature, Rainfall (1961--2000)2000)�� DDC (Data Distribution Center, UEA)DDC (Data Distribution Center, UEA)

Temperature, Rainfall (2001Temperature, Rainfall (2001--2050)2050)�� HadCM3 A2 scenarioHadCM3 A2 scenario

Data aggregationData aggregation�� 0.50.5oo grid grid �� country or planting regioncountry or planting region

�� Dr. Dr. NishimoriNishimori (NIAES) calculated(NIAES) calculated

Forecasting of temperatureForecasting of temperature

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports forecasts of temperature rising Change) reports forecasts of temperature rising for some scenariofor some scenario

Scenarios:Scenarios:�� A: More economic, B: More environmentalA: More economic, B: More environmental

�� 1: More global, 2: More regional1: More global, 2: More regional

�� A1: Rapid growth societyA1: Rapid growth society

�� A2: Heterogeneous societyA2: Heterogeneous society

�� B1: Dematerialization societyB1: Dematerialization society

�� B2: Local sustainable societyB2: Local sustainable society

Temperature of flowering seasonTemperature of flowering seasonin the USA (A2 scenario)in the USA (A2 scenario)

10101010

15151515

20202020

25252525

30303030

35353535

1960196019601960 1970197019701970 1980198019801980 1990199019901990 2000200020002000 2010201020102010 2020202020202020 2030203020302030 2040204020402040 2050205020502050

degre

es

Cels

ius

degre

es

Cels

ius

degre

es

Cels

ius

degre

es

Cels

ius

WheatWheatWheatWheat MaizeMaizeMaizeMaize RiceRiceRiceRice

1961-2000: UEA/CRU,DDC, 2001-2050: HadCM3, A2

Actual Forecasted

Correlation matrix of %error of major Correlation matrix of %error of major production countries of wheatproduction countries of wheat

--0.050.05IndiaIndia

--0.090.09--0.360.36ExEx--USSRUSSR

--0.050.05--0.390.390.210.21EUEU

--0.140.140.020.02--0.140.14--0.020.02USAUSA

Rainfall

Rainfall

0.100.10--0.130.13--0.050.050.150.15--0.150.15ChinaChina

0.050.05--0.120.120.020.020.130.13--0.250.25--0.040.04IndiaIndia

0.170.170.100.10--0.520.520.010.010.150.15--0.120.120.060.06ExEx--USSRUSSR

0.170.170.220.22--0.450.45--0.410.41--0.050.050.290.290.220.220.010.01EUEU

0.110.11--0.060.060.190.190.020.02--0.460.46--0.030.030.270.270.230.23--0.260.26USAUSA

Tem

peratureT

emperature

ChinaChinaIndiaIndiaExEx--USSRUSSR

EUEUUSAUSAChinaChinaIndiaIndiaExEx--USSRUSSR

EUEUCountryCountry

RainfallRainfallTemperatureTemperature

Assumptions of a simulationAssumptions of a simulation

Cropping calendar is fixedCropping calendar is fixed

Cropping region is fixedCropping region is fixed

Climatic variables directly affect yieldsClimatic variables directly affect yields

Temperature measured in degrees Celsius Temperature measured in degrees Celsius and rainfall of all countries and regions and rainfall of all countries and regions follows the data of HadCM3 A2 Scenariofollows the data of HadCM3 A2 Scenario

All parameters are fixedAll parameters are fixed

Fluctuation of production of wheatFluctuation of production of wheat

Production of wheat in the Production of wheat in the USA will increase about USA will increase about 14.6 million MT between 14.6 million MT between 2010 and 2030, 71.3mMT 2010 and 2030, 71.3mMT ��85.8mMT85.8mMT..Difference in P90 and P10 Difference in P90 and P10 is 2.0 in 2010 and 4.2 in is 2.0 in 2010 and 4.2 in 2030. 2030. PPrroodduuccttiioonn in the worldin the world::701mMT(2010)701mMT(2010)��983mMT(2030) [282]983mMT(2030) [282]P90P90--P10 in the world: P10 in the world: 29.3mMT(2010) 29.3mMT(2010) ��46.0mMT(2030) [16.7]46.0mMT(2030) [16.7]

60606060

65656565

70707070

75757575

80808080

85858585

90909090

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

Ave.Ave.Ave.Ave. P90P90P90P90 P10P10P10P10 Ave. 10%upAve. 10%upAve. 10%upAve. 10%up

P90 10%upP90 10%upP90 10%upP90 10%up P10 10%upP10 10%upP10 10%upP10 10%up actualactualactualactual

Wheat production in the USA

Wheat production in the world

600600600600

650650650650

700700700700

750750750750

800800800800

850850850850

900900900900

950950950950

1000100010001000

1050105010501050

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)



P90: 90 percentile, P10: 10 percentile

10% up: variations of temperature and rainfallincrease 10% along the forecasts

Fluctuation of production of maize Fluctuation of production of maize

Production in the USA: Production in the USA: 263mMT(2010) 263mMT(2010) ��326mMT(2030) [63]326mMT(2030) [63]P90P90--P10 in the USA: P10 in the USA: 40.7mMT(2010) 40.7mMT(2010) ��77.5mMT(2030)[36.8]77.5mMT(2030)[36.8]Production in the world: Production in the world: 726mMT(2010) 726mMT(2010) ��1020mMT(2030)[294]1020mMT(2030)[294]P90P90--P10 in the world: P10 in the world: 54.6mMT(2010)54.6mMT(2010)��103.8mMT(2030)[49.2]103.8mMT(2030)[49.2]

Maize production in the USA

Maize production in the world

200200200200220220220220240240240240260260260260280280280280300300300300320320320320340340340340360360360360380380380380400400400400

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)



600600600600650650650650700700700700750750750750800800800800850850850850900900900900950950950950

100010001000100010501050105010501100110011001100

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)



Fluctuation of production of riceFluctuation of production of rice

Production in the USA Production in the USA 6.1mMT(2010) 6.1mMT(2010) ��6.4mMT(2030)6.4mMT(2030)P90P90--P10 in the USA P10 in the USA 0.7mMT(2010) 0.7mMT(2010) ��0.9mMT(2030)0.9mMT(2030)Production in the world Production in the world 459mMT(2010) 459mMT(2010) ��622mMT(2030) [163]622mMT(2030) [163]P90P90--P10 in the world P10 in the world 20.7mMT(2010) 20.7mMT(2010) ��27.7mMT(2030) [7.0]27.7mMT(2030) [7.0]

Rice production in the USA

Rice production in the world

5.05.05.05.0

5.55.55.55.5

6.06.06.06.0

6.56.56.56.5

7.07.07.07.0

7.57.57.57.5

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)



400400400400

450450450450

500500500500

550550550550

600600600600

650650650650

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)



Fluctuation of production of Fluctuation of production of soybeanssoybeans

Production in the USA Production in the USA 83.8mMT(2010) 83.8mMT(2010) ��131.1mMT(2030) [47.3]131.1mMT(2030) [47.3]P90P90--P10 in the USA P10 in the USA 17.7mMT(2010) 17.7mMT(2010) ��55.7mMT(2030) [38.0]55.7mMT(2030) [38.0]Production in the world Production in the world 185mMT(2010) 185mMT(2010) ��307mMT(2030)307mMT(2030) [122][122]P90P90--P10 in the world P10 in the world 29.3mMT(2010) 29.3mMT(2010) ��121.0mMT(2030) [91.7]121.0mMT(2030) [91.7]

Soybeans production in the USA

Soybeans production in the world

65656565757575758585858595959595

105105105105115115115115125125125125135135135135145145145145155155155155165165165165

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)

(millio

n M

T)



150150150150

200200200200

250250250250

300300300300

350350350350

400400400400

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)

(mill

ion M

T)



Production of wheat in IndiaProduction of wheat in India

ProductionProduction�� 85.3mMT(2010) 85.3mMT(2010) �� 133.1mMT(2030)133.1mMT(2030)�� 47.8mMT increase47.8mMT increase

P90P90--P10P10�� 10.9mMT(2010) 10.9mMT(2010) �� 16.7mMT(2030)16.7mMT(2030)�� 5.8mMT increase5.8mMT increase

P90P90--P10, 10% P10, 10% dev.updev.up�� 12.0mMT(2010) 12.0mMT(2010) �� 18.3mMT(2030)18.3mMT(2030)�� 6.3mMT increase6.3mMT increase

65656565

75757575

85858585

95959595

105105105105

115115115115

125125125125

135135135135

145145145145

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Production of wheat in PakistanProduction of wheat in Pakistan




15151515

20202020

25252525

30303030

35353535

40404040

45454545

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Production of wheat in BangladeshProduction of wheat in Bangladesh




0.80.80.80.8

0.90.90.90.9

1.01.01.01.0

1.11.11.11.1

1.21.21.21.2

1.31.31.31.3

1.41.41.41.4

1.51.51.51.5

1.61.61.61.6

1.71.71.71.7

1.81.81.81.8

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Production of maize in IndiaProduction of maize in India




10101010

12121212

14141414

16161616

18181818

20202020

22222222

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Production of other coarse grains in Production of other coarse grains in IndiaIndia




10101010

12121212

14141414

16161616

18181818

20202020

22222222

24242424

26262626

28282828

30303030

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



other coarse grains include barley, rye, oats, millet and sorghum

Production of rice in IndiaProduction of rice in India




70707070

90909090

110110110110

130130130130

150150150150

170170170170

190190190190

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Production of soybeans in IndiaProduction of soybeans in India




5555

10101010

15151515

20202020

25252525

30303030

2000200020002000 2005200520052005 2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020 2025202520252025 2030203020302030

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)

(million M

T)



Changes in fluctuation of farm price Changes in fluctuation of farm price of wheat in the U.S.A.of wheat in the U.S.A.

5.535.534.494.494.074.07%%C.V.C.V.

10% dev.10% dev.

increaseincrease 8.88.86.76.75.75.7$/MT$/MTS.D.S.D.

159.2159.2148.8148.8140.6140.6$/MT$/MTAve.Ave.

4.984.984.064.063.693.69%%C.V.C.V.

7.97.96.06.05.25.2$/MT$/MTS.D.S.D.

159.2159.2148.8148.8140.7140.7$/MT$/MTAve.Ave.BaselineBaseline

203020302020202020102010UnitUnitItemItem

S.D.: Standard DeviationC.V.: Coefficient of Variation (Average/S.D.)

Changes in fluctuation of farm price Changes in fluctuation of farm price of maize in the U.S.A.of maize in the U.S.A.

12.4712.479.849.848.278.27%%C.V.C.V.

10% dev.10% dev.


110.1110.1103.6103.695.995.9$/MT$/MTAve.Ave.

11.3811.388.928.927.507.50%%C.V.C.V.

12.512.59.29.27.27.2$/MT$/MTS.D.S.D.




Changes in fluctuation of farm price Changes in fluctuation of farm price of rice in the U.S.A.of rice in the U.S.A.

1.671.671.651.651.421.42%%C.V.C.V.

10% dev.10% dev.


162.8162.8155.2155.2148.5148.5$/MT$/MTAve.Ave.

1.631.631.711.711.301.30%%C.V.C.V.

2.72.72.72.71.91.9$/MT$/MTS.D.S.D.




Changes in fluctuation of farm price Changes in fluctuation of farm price of soybeans in the U.S.A.of soybeans in the U.S.A.

43.4643.4626.0126.0118.4718.47%%C.V.C.V.

10% dev.10% dev.


267.9267.9229.7229.7216.2216.2$/MT$/MTAve.Ave.

40.7540.7523.7823.7816.7616.76%%C.V.C.V.

107.8107.854.454.436.136.1$/MT$/MTS.D.S.D.




Changes in C.V. of farm price of Changes in C.V. of farm price of crops in the U.S.A.crops in the U.S.A.

0.550.550.430.430.380.38%%WheatWheat

0.040.04--0.060.060.120.12%%RiceRice

2.712.712.232.231.711.71%%SoybeansSoybeans

1.091.090.920.920.770.77%%MaizeMaize

203020302020202020102010UnitUnit

C.V.: Coefficient of Variation (Average/S.D.)

If variations of temperature and rainfall increase 10% along the forecasts,C.V. of farm prices of crops increase as following numbers.

Changes in C.V. of farm price of Changes in C.V. of farm price of crops in Indiacrops in India

0.530.530.410.410.350.35%%WheatWheat

0.140.140.230.23--0.290.29%%RiceRice

2.272.271.761.761.331.33%%SoybeansSoybeans

0.920.920.770.770.630.63%%MaizeMaize

203020302020202020102010UnitUnit

C.V.: Coefficient of Variation (Average/S.D.)

If variations of temperature and rainfall increase 10% along the forecasts,C.V. of farm prices of crops increase as following numbers.

ConclusionsConclusions

Crop production in some countries or regions will be Crop production in some countries or regions will be affected greatly by rising temperatures with increased affected greatly by rising temperatures with increased fluctuation.fluctuation.Crop production by the USA and south Asian countries Crop production by the USA and south Asian countries could suffer severe damage from global warming.could suffer severe damage from global warming.The changes in production resulting from variations of The changes in production resulting from variations of temperature are quite different for each crop in each temperature are quite different for each crop in each country.country.World total production for most crops other than soybeans World total production for most crops other than soybeans is not severally affected.is not severally affected.The countries which suffer higher price risk by temperature The countries which suffer higher price risk by temperature variations may need to consider changes in cropping variations may need to consider changes in cropping patterns and practices.patterns and practices.

Thank you very much!Thank you very much!

Economic impacts of climate change on supply and … impacts of climate change on supply and demand...

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