Economic Impacts of a Transatlantic Free Trade Deal (TTIP)
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Economic Impacts of a Transatlantic Free Trade Deal (TTIP) Public Debate on Trade and Sustainability European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), Brussels, April 2013 Dr. Ulrich Schoof Global Economic Dynamics (GED) Project E-Mail: [email protected]
Transcript of Economic Impacts of a Transatlantic Free Trade Deal (TTIP)
Economic Impacts of a Transatlantic Free Trade Deal (TTIP) !Public Debate on Trade and Sustainability European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), Brussels, April 2013Dr. Ulrich Schoof Global Economic Dynamics (GED) Project E-Mail: [email protected]
Our work on TTIP in a nutshell…
Trans-Atlantic Relations Project
Brussels & GüterslohWashington D.C.
Our work on TTIP in a nutshell…
Trans-Atlantic Relations Project
Washington D.C.
• TTIP feasibility expert & practitioner opinion surveys (2013 & 14)
• Microeconomic effects of TTIP for the USA
(sectors & states/districts
Our work on TTIP in a nutshell…
Brussels & Gütersloh
• Study on Macroeconomic Effects of TTIP for 128 countries
• Study on Microeconomic Effects of TTIP for Germany (sectors & regions)
Context: Evolution of Regional Trade Agreements, 1948-2014
Source: WTO Secretariat
TTIP
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
Trans-Pacific Parternership (TPP)
Context: Emergence of „Mega-Regionals“
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!2. Is TTIP contributing to economic cohesion in Europe or will it intensify further economic divergence?
!3. How will TTIP affect the EU internal, single market?
!4. What are the economic consequences for third countries?
!5. With respect to Germany
….which sectors and regions would benefit from TTIP?
!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!!!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
Both the USA and the EU would economically benefit from TTIP - particularly if a comprehensive deal is reached!
USA EU
4,95
13,4
0,270,8
Tariff Scenario Deep Liberalization Scenario
Change in Real Per Capita Income in %
1,1 Mio. 1,3 Mio.
All EU member states will economically benefit from TTIP.
Change in Real Per Capita Income in EU27 in %
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!2. Is TTIP contributing to economic cohesion in Europe or will it intensify further economic divergence?
!!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
!TTIP will unlikely increase economic disparities between EU-27! !!!!
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!2. Is TTIP contributing to economic cohesion in Europe or will it intensify further economic divergence?
!3. How will TTIP affect the EU internal, single market?
!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
TTIP will weaken trade ties of the domestic market?
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!2. Is TTIP contributing to economic cohesion in Europe or will it intensify further economic divergence?
!3. How will TTIP affect the EU internal, single market?
!4. What are the economic consequences for third countries?
!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
1. What are potential trade-creation and welfare effects of TTIP for the US and the EU?
!2. Is TTIP contributing to economic cohesion in Europe or will it intensify further economic divergence?
!3. How will TTIP affect the EU internal, single market?
!4. What are the economic consequences for third countries?
!5. With respect to Germany
….which sectors and regions would benefit from TTIP?
….how would it affect various occupational and different skill groups?
!
TTIP from an economic perspective...
!
!
www.ged-shorts.org www.ged-project.de
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