Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Economic Impact of COVID-19 on CornwallEstimated Economic Impact – Economic Growth Service May 2020

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

LEP Business Survey

0 20 40 60 80 100

Increased sales/bookings/demand for servicesDifficulties exporting/accessing customers abroad

Increased staff absence through illness/isolationDifficulty sourcing supplies/components

OtherEvent cancellation

Travel restrictions to visit customers/suppliersCashflow issues

Reduced sales/bookings/demand for services

Percentage of Respondents Experiencing Impact

Q2. If there is an impact, how is the outbreak affecting your business?

Cornwall Business Impact Survey – Job Impact

Action Taken Average Total Number of Responses

Staff placed on shorter working 3 581 185Staff laid off 4 1,127 256

Impact on Jobs – LEP Survey

Impact on Businesses – LEP Survey

Worth noting that thesample size is small.The survey has howeverbeen a vital source oflocal level intelligence.Given the lack ofavailable granular data.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Employment Impact EstimatesWorking from Home

Number of People Who Could Work from Home:

52,09622% of Cornwall's Workforce

(CC Estimates based on Census, 2011)

Estimated Number of People Working from Home Prior to

COVID-19:

29,41011% of Cornwall's Workforce(ONS Estimates, Jan-Dec 19)

*excludes those using home as a base

Reduction in Traffic Across Cornwall:

62% (ANPR Cameras,

Cornwall Council, 2020)

Percentage of People Who Could Work from Home:

28/38 LEPSCIoS LEP – includes the Isles of Scilly

(CC Estimates based on Census, 2011)

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

27% of Cornwall's Total Employment

Overall Economic Impact - JobsNet Impact on Jobs – CC Estimates Using ISER Research

Employee:

-58,700Self-Employed:

-14,100Lost: -68,000

Gained: 9,300Lost: -15,000Gained: 900

-30000-25000-20000-15000-10000

-50000

50001000015000

Net

Cha

nge

in Jo

bs

Estimated Employee Job Impact by Sector

-4000-3500-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000

-5000

50010001500

Net

Cha

nge

in Jo

bs

Estimated Self-Employed Job Impact by Sector

Total Net Change:

-72,800 Jobs

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Overall Economic Impact - GVACC GVA Estimates Using ISER Research

Assuming that changes in output also mirror changes inemployment as the ISER analysis suggests the estimated potentialloss to Cornwall’s GVA is £1,984 million if the lockdown were tolast a year. The most significant impacts would be in Wholesale,Retail and Motors and Accommodation and Food Services sectors.

Centre for Progressive Policy Analysis

-34%276 out of 382 Local

Authorities.

Quarter 2 GVA:

UK: -35%

-22%If the lockdown was

to last a year.

Annual GVA:

The CPP have estimated Local Authorities quarter two GVA.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Overall Economic Impact - Sales

Percentage change in sales week ending 14 April 2019 vs 14 April 2020

Town or City (TTWA) All Sales Grocery Sales Non-Grocery Sales Ranking (Out of 172)

Penzance -69% 5% -89% 2Wadebridge -67% -5% -85% 3Redruth and Truro -56% 3% -73% 22Falmouth -54% 9% -77% 29St. Austell and Newquay -48% 3% -71% 59Bude -46% -5% -67% 70Liskeard -45% 4% -73% 80Launceston -42% 8% -66% 98

Tortoise Media Consumer Spending Analysis

Tortoise Media have undertaken some research lookingat the impact of the COVID-19 on consumer spendingacross England and Wales. The data compares saleswith the equivalent week in the previous year. Thisanalysis identifies a number of Cornish towns seeing avery high drop off in sales and therefore a higheconomic impact due to COVID-19.

In Penzance Travel to Work Area than wk.14th April 2019

Non Grocery Sales:

-89% less sales

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Estimated Economic ImpactCentre for Towns – Sectoral Exposure to COVID-19

Towns with the Highest Sectorial Impact from COVID-19

Town Region % Employed in Shutdown Sectors

Newquay South West 56.2Skegness East Midlands 54.7Whickham North East 52.8Cleveleys North West 48.2St. Ives (Cornwall) South West 48.0Minehead South West 48.0Aberystwyth Wales 47.1Whitby Yorkshire and The Humber 46.9Ilkley Yorkshire and The Humber 44.7Kingsteignton South West 44.5Mablethorpe East Midlands 44.5Swanage South West 44.2Sidmouth South West 43.4Porthcawl Wales 43.0Penzance South West 42.2Llandudno Wales 40.9Falmouth South West 40.6Kinmel Bay Wales 39.8Sandown South East 39.6St. Blazey South West 39.3

Newquay has the highest combinedemployment in the at-risk sectorsidentified by the Centre for Towns,making it the most exposed town inEngland and Wales.

Identified At-Risk Sectors:

• Accommodation;• Art and Leisure;• Non-food Retail;• Pubs and Restaurants.

The Centre for Towns report takes theat-risk sectors in turn identifying thetowns (in England and Wales) with thehighest proportions of employeesworking in each sector and thereforeseeing a high impact from COVID-19.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Estimated Economic ImpactCentre for Towns – Economic Exposure to COVID-19

St. Blazey has the highesteconomic exposure to COVID-19identified by the Centre forTowns, making it one of the mostexposed town in England andWales.

The sectoral exposure to COVID-19 iscombined with a number of additionalsocio-economic metrics focused onresilience in order to produce an overalleconomic exposure ranking.

Social Economic Measures:

• Social Wellbeing;• Social Isolation;• Economic Wellbeing;• Absolute Deprivation.

Towns with the Highest Economic Exposure to COVID-19Town Ranking (Out of 805)

St. Blazey 8St. Austell 63Newquay 69Penzance 83Bodmin 106

Camborne 125Redruth 170St. Ives 228

Falmouth 264Helston 315Saltash 423Truro 562

No Cornish towns feature in the worst twenty towns for socialwellbeing or economic wellbeing according to the Centre for Townsanalysis. Bodmin is the only town to feature for absolutedeprivation (12) with a number of towns are identified as the mostsocially isolated in England and Wales (Bodmin (2), Newquay (6),Helston (9) and St. Blazey (16)).

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Tourism

Estimated Sector Losses Based on Cornwall Visitor Spend in 2018 Spend March April May June July August Sept Total % of Year

Staying Visitor £42m £110m £169m £156m £238m £333m £151m £1,199m 81%

% Lost 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Day Visitor £13m £75m £34m £32m £34m £70m £61m £319m 61%

%Lost 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Total Visitor £55m £185m £203m £188m £272m £403m £211m £1517m 76%

Long Term Impacts on Tourism:

• If 2020 season does not go ahead, it is estimated that the majority of businesses will not survive the winter months;

• It is estimated that only 14% of people “would consider booking a UK holiday immediately after lockdown”

• Based on other countries, tourism looks likely to be one of the last sectors to reopen.

Feedback from Visit Cornwall on the Tourism Sector

Traveller’s Confidence and Intentions:

Feel comfortable resuming normalactivities months after COVID-19.

Will not resume normal activitiesuntil there is a treatment orvaccine.

Will not resume normal activitiesuntil themselves and their familyshave been vaccinated.

65%

11%

4%

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Agri-food

Of agricultural seasonal workers are from the EU. Many businessesare reporting shortages of labour or flagging risks moving into thepicking season. Currently limited labour is being flown in fromEurope. It is estimated that 70,000 workers are required in theagricultural sector. Pick for Britain campaign live to try and identifylocal labour to fill gaps but take up low and physical nature of workputting many off

Many of Cornwall’s wholesalers, food processors and smallersuppliers depend on the hospitality and tourism sector for at least80% of their trade. This sector is currently seeing no activity. Withmany producers left with no market for goods.

Supply Side and Demand Side Issues

80%

99%

80%

The 80% Furlough scheme is not flexible enough to allow part timeworking, phased return, etc. This has a direct impact on thosebusinesses that need all staff in place to operate (e.g. abattoirs) andwill also impact on many businesses ability to bounce back after thelockdown especially for those businesses heavily reliant on the visitoreconomy.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

MarineFeedback from Cornwall Marine Network

of marine businesses surveyed arereporting a decrease in turnover.80% 29%

Report having to lay off staff dueto COVID-19.

31%of businesses have strong links tothe sectors of tourism, retail andtransport. Sectors with significantimpacts.

23%of businesses are involved ineducation or provide high leveljobs in engineering, renewableenergy generation or technology.

Worth notingthat the samplesize for thissurvey is small.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

ManufacturingFeedback from Cornwall Manufacturers Group

Of manufacturing businessessurveyed are open with 50%less staff on site.

64% 53%Believe that the main issue theirbusinesses face is a lack of ordersin the next 6 months.

40% 71%Of businesses surveyed had notaccessed the CBIL or BounceBack Finance Schemes.

Of businesses have seen afall in orders of over 50%.

Worth notingthat the samplesize for thissurvey is small.

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

None 1-10 11-25 26-50 51+Percentage of Respondents

How Many Staff do you have on Furlough Currently?

Other Points of Note:

• All members of the Cornwall Manufactures Group are still operating in some capacity. Highlighting less impact than other sectors.

• Most seem to have self financed up to this point without the need to take on debts.

• Reliance on the furlough scheme hints at potential job risks in the future if orders don’t pick up.

Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Thank You/MeurRasIf you have any questions please contact:economicdevelopment@cornwall.gov.uk