Economic Impact Analysis - rurb.files.wordpress.com · Economic Impact Analysis • Credible...
Transcript of Economic Impact Analysis - rurb.files.wordpress.com · Economic Impact Analysis • Credible...
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Economic Impact Analysis
www.extension.umn.edu/EconomicImpact
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Input-Output Analysis • Used in rural urban interdependencies study • Measures flow of goods and services
throughout an economy during a given time period
• Descriptive, general expenditure pattern, Quesnay
• Predictive, input-output method, Leontief
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IMPLAN • Input-output modeling software used in the
rural urban study • Widely-used for county-level analysis • History of IMPLAN
– Origins in Forestry Service – University of Minnesota – MIG, Inc.
• Data gathered from a variety of sources
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Terms to Know • Output – Equal to sales • Employment – Part-time and full-time treated
equally in the model • Value Added – Includes employee
compensation, proprietor income, other property income, and indirect business taxes
• Labor Income – Employee compensation and proprietor income
©2011 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
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Economic Impact Analysis
Direct: Initial Change
Indirect: Related to Inputs
Induced Related to Labor
TOTAL
©2011 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
Local Economy
Secondary Economy
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Economic Impact Analysis Indirect Impacts: Suppliers of Material Inputs
©2011 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
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Economic Impact Analysis Induced Impacts:
Labor Income
©2011 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
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A Test Drive of IMPLAN’s New Multi-Regional Analysis Capability
The IMPLAN National Trade Flows Model: doubly-constrained gravity model estimates gross trade flows between counties. • gravity model: flows are proportional to “size” of counties and
inversely proportional to “distance”. • doubly-constrained: flows are balanced so that trade flows from
county i to all other counties j equal county i’s total supply and county j’s total demand.
• data – ORNL county-to-county distances – Commodity Flows Survey ton-miles data by commodity – IMPLAN commodity S/D by county
©2011 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
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Major Industry Sectors in IMPLAN Agriculture: 1-19
Mining: 20-30
Utilities: 31-33
Construction: 34-40
Manufacturing: 41-318
Wholesale Trade: 319
Retail Trade: 320-331
Transport & Ware: 332-340
Information: 341-353
Finance & Insurance: 354-359
Real Estate and Rental: 360-366
Professional (Scientific/Technical): 367-380
Management of Companies: 381
Administrative and Waste Services: 382-390
Educational Services: 391-393
Health and Social Services: 39-401
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation: 402-410
Accommodation & Food Services: 411-413
Other Services: 414-426
Government and Other: 427-440
The IMPLAN sectors were first sorted into the 17 MRP clusters. For the agribusiness and manufacturing cluster analyses, the $1 billion initiating change was distributed over the sectors in that cluster in proportion to each sector’s gross output in the region.
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Economic Impact Analysis • Credible information helps communities make
informed decisions
• Current and predicted interactions in a local economy
• A formula to estimate employment, income, and business activity caused by economic events
• An Extension program using the IMPLAN economic analysis tool
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Economic Impact Analysis program
• Futures Workshop
• Profile, QuickTake 100, & Facilitated discussion
• Economic Impact Analysis
• Basic
• Advanced
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Components of Futures Workshop
1. County Profile
2. QuickTake 100
3. Facilitated Discussion
• Optional:
• General economic data
• State of the Economy
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Basic or Advanced EIA
• The Impact Question……??
• Ground-truthing the data
• Analyze and report (findings)
• Present report and discussion
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Minnesota Valley Regional Rail Authority • Background and History
– Class III RR owned by Carver, Sibley, Renville, Redwood, Yellow Medicine counties
– 2001 – 2003 – Rehab started – Study commissioned in 2008
• Document the direct economic activity of the railroad including jobs, wages, and sales – MVRRA rail line contributed $3.2M in output – 21 ft and pt jobs – $1.4 in labor income in 2008
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Minnesota Valley Regional Rail Authority • Identify the indirect and induced “ripples’ of
economic activity resulting from Railroad business – Which sectors – shippers wholesaled $1.3B worth of
goods and services in 2008 & shipped $302 M in output! – Additional jobs –671 FT and PT jobs – Additional wages - $28M in labor income in 2008 – Additional sales – without the RR improvements,
revenues would have decreased by at least $4.9 M.
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Minnesota Valley Regional Rail Authority • Use information in strategic plan and
decisions for the Rail Authority, Shippers, Coalition, and the Operating Company
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Minnesota Valley Regional Rail Authority • Statewide significance:
– Disburse the report to inform public and private partners regarding funding and public policy decisions
• Minnesota State Legislature • Minnesota Department of Transportation • Federal Rail Authority • Railroad operators of the Midwest
– Economic Contribution of MVRRA & Shippers to MN State Economy – 2008 • $359M in output • 1031 FT and PT jobs • $45.6 M in labor income in MN!
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Q & A
• William Lazarus, Professor of Economics
• Brigid Tuck, EIA Analyst
• David A. Nelson, EIA Program Manager
• Julie Rath, MVRRA Exec. Director
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Economic Impact Analysis
www.extension.umn.edu/EconomicImpact