Economic History of Esoteric Metals - Sykes et al - Sep 2014 - China Metals Week

AN ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE

ESOTERIC METALS MARKETS:

Batteries, Electronics, Light Alloys,

Antimony, China, Cheap Energy,

Industrialization, Globalization and

High Technology

John P. Sykes & Allan Trench Centre for Exploration Targeting,

Curtin University & University of Western Australia

Joshua Wright Rowton Ltd

Metal Pages China Metals Week Conference

Beijing, China: 16th Sept 2014

Metal Pages China Metals Week

The past is no indicator of the future…

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Antimony & Light Metals

Antimony Aluminium Magnesium

16 Sep 2014

An Economic History of the Esoteric

Metals Markets

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Battery Metals

Cadmium Cobalt Lithium

Nickel Vanadium

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Some Electronic Metals…

Bismuth Selenium Tin

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…More Electronic Metals

Gallium Germanium Tantalum

? ?

?

?

Slide 2 of 39


But the past has some lessons to teach

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Antimony & Light Metals

Antimony Aluminium Magnesium

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

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Battery Metals

Cadmium Cobalt Lithium

Nickel Vanadium

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Some Electronic Metals…

Bismuth Selenium Tin

0

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1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

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3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

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…More Electronic Metals

Gallium Germanium Tantalum

? ?

? ?

Slide 3 of 39


STARTING WITH A BRIEF

HISTORY OF THE WORLD

An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 4 of 39


Finite world, with finite mineral deposits

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

“Earth rise” from Apollo 11

Image: The Guardian/NASA

Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK,

operated late 18th century to 1990

Image: Shutterstock

Slide 5 of 39


Defined by supply, demand & discovery

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

…Demand…

…and Discovery

Supply…

The history of civilisation to some extent is the history of

finding, exploiting and using mineral resources.

Slide 6 of 39


Stone Age tools to…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

160,000 - 5,000 years ago

Damaidi Rock Art, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Northwest China

7,000-8,000 years ago Source: http://history.cultural-

china.com/en/56History9528.html

Stonehenge, Southern England

4,000-5,000

years ago

Map: Wikipedia

Slide 7 of 39


Bronze Age tools, metallurgy & trade…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

5,000 - 3,000 years ago

Map: University of Maryland

Images: Wikipedia /

Shutterstock

Pyramids of Giza Egypt

2,686-2,181 BCE

Late Bronze Age

Trade Routes of

the Mediterranean

Houmuwu Ding Shang Dynasty, China

1,300-1,046 BCE

Slide 8 of 39


…and Iron Age smelting & empires

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

1,000BCE – 500AD

Terracotta Warriors Qin (Ching) Dynasty, China

221-206 BCE

Iron Age Trans-Eurasian Trade Routes Map: Dorling Kindersley

“Roman Iron

Armour” in the

Film: Gladiator

Slide 9 of 39


Renaissance mining & ‘exploration’…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

1300-1750AD

Images from De Re

Metallica by

Agricola, 1556

Marco Polo visited

Kublai Khan of Yuan

Dynasty China ~1275

Map of Voyages of Discovery to 1610 Map: World Maps Online

Image: W

ikip

edia

Slide 10 of 39


Industrial Age steel, coal & gold fever…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Steamship

advert for

Californian

gold rushes

(1849)

Australian gold

miners (1875)

1750-1914AD

Image: S

chm

oop

Bessemer

converter at

Station Square,

Pittsburgh

“Iron and Coal”

by William Bell

Scott (1855-60)

Images: W

ikip

edia

Image: State Library of New South Wales

Slide 11 of 39


…and discovery of a different type

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Cu Pre-Bronze Age (Pre-3,500 BCE)

Sn Bronze & Iron Ages (3,500-1 CE)

C

Fe Cu

Ag

Au Pb

Cr As

S

Zn

Hg

Sn Sb

Al Renaissance & Industrial Age (1669-1913 CE)

H

Li

Na

K

Rb

Cs

La

Ac

Be

Mg

Ca

Sr

Ba

Sc

Y

Ra

Ti

Zr

Hf

V

Nb

Ta

Mo

W

Mn

Ru

Os

Co

Rh

Ir

Ni

Pd

Pt

Cd

B

Al

Ga

In

Tl

Si

Ge

N

P

Bi

O

Se

Te

Po

F

Cl

Br

I

He

Ne

Ar

Kr

Xe

Rn

Ce

Th

Pr Nd

U

Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu

Pa

Pu Modern Age (1937 CE-present)

Fr Rf Db Sg

Tc

Re

Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Cn Uut Fl Uup Lv

At

Uus Uuo

Pm

Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr

Slide 12 of 39


INTO THE MODERN AGE…


16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 13 of 39


Globalisation…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 14 of 39


…facilitated by cheap energy…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Source: IMGArcade.com; Data: Platts UDI Database, June 2012; NB; Circle size represents installed capacity (MW)

Slide 15 of 39


…and high technology…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 16 of 39


…fuelled by Chinese industrialisation

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

History of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP): % of Total in $1990 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

Source: The Economist; Data: Angus Madison

Slide 17 of 39


…including light alloys

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Images: Shutterstock & Images of the

Elements

Slide 18 of 39


…electronics…

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements

Slide 19 of 39


…and batteries

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Images: Shutterstock; Images of the Elements & Techhive.com

Slide 20 of 39


But not ‘Rise of the Esoteric Metals’?

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Market size of Base, Precious & Esoteric Metals over the last 100 years in 2012

dollars (millions)

Antimony

Electronic Metals (Bi, Ga, Ge, In, Se & Ta)

Light Metals (Mg & Ti)

Battery Metals (Cd, Co, Li & V)

Precious Metals (Au, Ag & PGMs)

Base Metals (Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn & Zn)

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

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2012Data: USGS

Slide 21 of 39


THE STRANGE & ESOTERIC

STORY OF ALUMINIUM


16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 22 of 39


Aluminium: the 20th Century Metal

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Market size of the Base Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (millions)

Copper

Tin

Zinc

Lead

Aluminium

Nickel

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

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2012Data: USGS

Slide 23 of 39


How to use a lot of metal

For a metal to be mined in large volumes

it must:

1. Be relatively abundant in the crust

2. Geologically concentrate into

mineral deposits

3. Be easy to mine the ore from the

ground

4. Be easy to extract the metal from

the ore

5. Have diversified and substantial

demand

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

DISCOVERY

SUPPLY

DEMAND

Based on: Krishnamurthy & Gupta (2004)

Slide 24 of 39


Solving supply & demand for aluminium

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

ABUNDANCE

CONCENTRATION

8.2%

Factors in place prior to 20th

century

Images: sandatlas.org; earlham.edu; tempraturedetectors.com & shutterstock

MINING

PROCESSING

DEMAND

Problems solved in late 19th &

early 20th century

Slide 25 of 39


CAN THERE BE ANOTHER

‘ALUMINIUM STORY’?


16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 26 of 39


Most are just too rare in the crust...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Aluminium 82,000 ppm Tin 2.2 ppm

Magnesium 23,000 ppm Tantalum 2 ppm

Titanium 5,600 ppm Germanium 1.8 ppm

Vanadium 160 ppm Antimony 0.2 ppm

Cadmium 0.11 ppm

Nickel 80 ppm Silver 0.07 ppm

Cobalt 20 ppm Selenium 0.05 ppm

Lithium 20 ppm Indium 0.049 ppm

Gallium 18 ppm Bismuth 0.048 ppm

Data: Wikipedia

Slide 27 of 39


Some do not geologically concentrate

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Usually mined as

primary product Usually mined as by-product

Aluminium Antimony (lead-zinc ores)

Lithium Bismuth (lead-zinc ores)

Magnesium Cadmium (lead-zinc ores)

Nickel Cobalt (nickel-copper ores)

Tantalum Gallium (bauxite ores)

Tin Germanium (lead-zinc ores)

Titanium Indium (lead-zinc ores)

Selenium (nickel-copper ores)

Vanadium (nickel-copper ores)

Slide 28 of 39


Some require alternative mining

techniques...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Usually mined via conventional

hard rock mining

Requires alternative mining

techniques

Aluminium Germanium Lithium (brine mining)

Antimony Indium Magnesium (brine mining)

Bismuth Nickel Titanium (placer mining)

Cadmium Selenium Tin (placer mining & conflict

minerals)

Cobalt Vanadium Tantalum (conflict minerals)

Gallium

Slide 29 of 39


Some need improvements in

processing technology...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Well established

processing techniques Known processing challenges

Aluminium Magnesium (Brine extraction technology needs

improving)

Lithium Tantalum (Wide variety of complex

processes – none established)

Nickel Titanium (Kroll process to produce titanium

sponge is very expensive)

Tin Vanadium (Separation from iron ores difficult,

usually sold as ferroalloy)

Antimony, Bismuth,

Cadmium, Cobalt,

Gallium, Germanium,

Indium & Selenium

(Processed as a by-product)

Slide 30 of 39


Some need broader uses...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Wide range of uses Narrow range of uses

Aluminium (Transportation, packaging,

infrastructure) Antimony (Mainly a flame retardant)

Cobalt (Alloys, batteries, catalysts,

pigments) Bismuth

(Mainly in chemicals,

electronics only minor)

Lithium (Batteries, metallurgy,

ceramics) Cadmium (Mainly used in batteries)

Magnesium (Alloys, transportation,

electronics, chemicals) Gallium

(Almost exclusively used in

semiconductors)

Nickel (Steel, alloys, batteries) Germanium (Mainly used in optics,

electronics use minor)

Tantalum (Capacitors, alloys, chemicals) Indium (Mainly used in electronics)

Tin (Solders, packaging,

chemicals, alloys) Selenium

(Mainly used in glass industry,

solar cell use minor)

Titanium (Steel, alloys, transportation,

industry) Vanadium (Mainly used in steel alloys)

Slide 31 of 39


Some will always be ’precious’

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Metal A

bu

nd

an

ce

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n

Min

ing

Pro

cessin

g

De

ma

nd

2012

Production

(tonnes)

2012

Market

(US$

million)

Gold x √ √ √ √ 2,500 139,800

Silver x ? √ √ √ 25,500 25,600

PGMs x x √ ? √ <500 8,800

Antimony x x √ x x 174,000 2,200

Indium x x √ x x <1,000 ~500

Bismuth x x √ x x 8,200 <500

Selenium x x √ x x 2,200 <500

Cadmium x x √ x x 20,900 <50

Data: USGS

Slide 32 of 39


Most only have base metal potential...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Metal A

bu

nd

an

ce

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n

Min

ing

Pro

ce

ss

ing

De

ma

nd

2012

Production

(tonnes)

2012

Market

(US$

million)

Lead ? ? x x ? 5,170,000 13,000

Tin x √ x √ √ 240,000 6,800

Cobalt ? x √ x √ 100,000 3,100

Lithium ? √ x √ √ 650,000 2,700

Gallium ? x √ x x <500 200

Tantalum ? √ x x √ <1,000 200

Germanium ? x √ x x <500 250

Data: USGS

Slide 33 of 39


But a few have bulk metal potential...

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Metal A

bu

nd

an

ce

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n

Min

ing

Pro

ce

ss

ing

De

ma

nd

2012

Production

(tonnes)

2012

Market

(US$

million)

Aluminium √ √ √ √ √ 45,900,000 136,900

Copper ? √ √ √ √ 16,900,000 102,200

Nickel ? √ √ √ ? 2,220,000 38,800

Zinc ? √ √ √ ? 13,500,000 28,500

Titanium √ √ x x √ 6,159,200 3,900

Magnesium √ √ x x √ 802,000 3,400

Vanadium √ x √ x x 74,300 1,900

Data: USGS

Slide 34 of 39


SOME FINAL THOUGHTS


16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 35 of 39


Understanding the future?

• History is to some extent about the discovery, mining and use of

metals.

• However, until the industrial revolution only a few metals were

known to mankind.

• Modern globalised society has therefore had a wider variety of

esoteric metals available for economic use.

• The esoteric metals have facilitated mass transportation,

communication, energy use and ultimately globalisation.

• However, with the exception of aluminium, none of the esoteric

metals have become substantial markets.

• Aluminium has always been abundant in the crust and

concentrated into mineral deposits.

• However, in the late 19th/early 20th century bulk mining, the Hall-

Heroult process, cheap energy and mass transportation facilitated

a massive increase in the aluminium market.

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 36 of 39


Innovating the future!

• For other esoteric metals to become major industrial metal markets

they will need to be:

– Sufficiently abundant in the crust.

– Concentrate into mineral deposits.

– Be simple to mine.

– Be simple to process.

– And have a broad range of important industrial uses.

• Some esoteric metals are geologically rare.

• However, most esoteric metals just require improvements in

mining and/or processing technology, and/or new and wider

industrial uses.

• All factors must however be in place - no single technology will be

the solution – look for discovery and ‘technology packages’.

• Understanding the future of the esoteric metals markets is about

the interaction of discovery, supply and demand innovations.

16 Sep 2014


Metals Markets

Slide 37 of 39

THANK YOU

For more information:

Centre for Exploration Targeting: www.cet.edu.au

Greenfields Research: www.greenfieldsresearch.com

Rowton Ltd: www.rowton-ltd.com

Contact information:

John P. Sykes: [email protected]

Joshua Wright: [email protected]

Allan Trench: [email protected]

http://www.cet.edu.au/

http://www.greenfieldsresearch.com/

http://www.rowton-ltd.com/



mailto:[email protected]





Learn more on “Mineral

Economics for Geologists”

Date: 2nd December 2014

Website:

http://www.cet.edu.au/education-and-

training/short-courses/mineral-economics-

for-geologists

Contact: Centre for Exploration Targeting

[email protected]

Prof Allan Trench

[email protected]

Mr John Sykes

[email protected]

http://www.cet.edu.au/education-and-training/short-courses/mineral-economics-for-geologists




















Economic History of Esoteric Metals - Sykes et al - Sep 2014 - China Metals Week

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Economic History of Esoteric Metals - Sykes et al - Sep 2014 - China Metals Week