Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy … Resources Environment Limitation of fossil...
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Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape Kim Clark, Chief Commercial Officer, AREVA Inc. May 31, 2013 15 min
Transcript of Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy … Resources Environment Limitation of fossil...
Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape Kim Clark, Chief Commercial Officer, AREVA Inc. May 31, 2013
15 min
An Energy World in Revolution
Sharply rising energy
demand worldwide
Volatile fossil resources
Climate change
Growth in many
developing countries
Large number of world population still lacks access
to affordable electricity driving increased need for
nuclear energy
Today, the world needs twice as much energy and half as much emissions.
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.2
Rising Global Populations Drive a Rising Demand for Energy
Population boom: 6 billion today, and expected to reach 9
billion by 2050
26.3% of the world’s population is under the age of 15
Majority of world population growth is coming from rapidly
developing nations, which currently rely on very carbon
intensive generation
World Electricity Generation by Fuel
Source: International Energy Agency, 2010 Key World Energy Statistics
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.3
World Energy Consumption is Growing…
Compound annual growth rate of more than 2.5 percent
since 1965
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
Total Primary Energy Consumption
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.4
… While Prices for Traditional Energy Resources are Rising
Cru
de O
il
Natu
ral
Gas
Source: EIA
Crude oil prices are resuming a
steady climb begun prior to the
financial crisis/recession
While U.S. natural gas
fundamentals have diverged
from the rest of the world, where
prices continue to increase
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.5
Geopolitics Resources Environment
Limitation of fossil
resources
20501990 2010 2030
Barils
GHG emissions cut
by half by 2050
20501990 2010 2030
BUSINESS
AS USUAL
450ppm
SCENARIO
tCO2
0
25
50
75
100
$2011/barrel of oil
1990 1970
Macroeconomics
Energy demand
multiplied by 2
by 2050
20501990 2010 2030
BUSINESS
AS USUAL
tep
20501990 2010 2030
BUSINESS
AS USUAL
tep
2010
Source: IEA ETP: reference scenario 2010 - UNFCC, CERA 2009
Production in barrels of oil
* Billions of toe
Demand in nuclear energy*
Demand in renewable energies*
+2.1% / year
+2.5% / year 20
11
WE
O
20
09
– 2
03
5
Scen
ari
o
Global primary demand in energy* +1.3% / year
Ineluctable decline of
fossile resources +
pressure on prices
GHG emissions: goal=
50% reduction by 2050
Energy independance and
security of supply
Energy demand:
x2 by 2050
Fundamental Drivers Continue to
Support Need for Nuclear Energy
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.6
50%40%
10%
56%29%
Nuclear 1%
4%5%
5%
Mexico’s Electricity Consumption
Nuclear provides 10% of Mexico’s emissions-free energy
from 2 Nuclear Energy Units (Laguna Verde)
Total Energy Mix by Source Emissions Free Electricity
Generation Sources
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.7
Source: US Energy Information Administration, 2010
38%42%
9%10%
Capacity addition planned for 2010-2024: 37,600 MW in 15 years
5,100 MW in construction
32,100 MW new build
400 MW upgrade
Technology mix for new build
13,400 MW natural gas
3,500 MW hydro
3,240 MW coal
14,800 MW TBD
Current Nuclear fleet
2 reactors BWR GE 685 MW
Mexico’s Electricity Future
42% of Mexico’s New Energy Generation is to be determined
Technology Mix for New Build
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.8 8
?
0
50
100
150
200
Nuclear Coal Gas WindOnshore
Nuclear Coal Gas WindOnshore
Nuclear Coal Gas WindOnshore
N. America Europe Asia Pacific
US
D/M
Wh
Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (5% Discount Rate)
Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010
Nuclear Energy Is Cost Competitive
Nuclear is already a very cost competitive technology.
North America Europe Asia Pacific
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.9
Nuclear Energy Creates Affordable Electricity
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.10
Nuclear Energy Costs are Stable and Predictable
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.11
Uranium represents only 5% of nuclear production costs; a doubling
of fuel price would lead to a limited increase of nuclear production
costs (+5% vs +60% for gas).
Impact of doubling of fuel and carbon prices on production costs
Nuclear and Renewables are Plentiful and Secure
Uranium resources are plentiful
Undiscovered
resources
Identified
resources
100
0
200
Gen 4
potential
Conventional fissile resources1
Conventional fissile
resources represent more
than 200 years of 2009
world demand
X 50
years
Source: Redbook IAEA, DOE
1. Resources valuation based on 2007 world uranium consumption
Uranium
26%
35%
Gas
29%
63%
Coal Oil
7%
42%
OECD
countries
Brazil,
Russia,
India China,
South Africa
Rest of
the
world
Uranium resources are well distributed
Share of resources
%
NASA estimates that the sun will continue to
produce power for another 5 billion years
14%
44%
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.12
76%
Nuclear and Renewables Avoid Carbon Emissions
+2,000 Mt of CO2 avoided each year by Nuclear power
Weighted
average
emissions of the
world electricity
mix excluding
nuclear power
750
500
250
1.250
1.000
0
80 60 40 20 100 0
Coal Oil Gas Renew. Hydro Nuclear
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation
gCO2eq/kWh
Source: AREVA analysis, World Energy Outlook 2007, International Transport
Forum
Share of electricity
production (%)
Avoided
emissions
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.13
Nuclear Energy is at the Heart of a Virtuous Economy
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.14
In France, the nuclear power industry generates:
125 000 direct jobs and 410 000 jobs in total, a total added value of 33 Bn€
in France, ie 2% of GDP in 2012.
The nuclear sector creates 3 times as many local jobs as competing
technologies for each euro invested.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Wind
Energy & Job Creation (Jobs per 1,000 MW)
Source: US Dept of Energy, 2009
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers, The socio-economic impact of the nuclear power industry in France, 2011.
…And New Build Activity is Moving Forward
China:
29 reactors are under construction
New projects resumed end 2012 (3 FCDs in December)
Updated 2020 target reportedly between 50 and 70GWe
(still no official announcement)
India:
7 reactors under construction
State-level planning targets 62GWe by 2032
Japan:
“Ambition” to denuclearize by the 2030s abandoned by the new government
Two new reactors resumed construction. Even with a lifetime set at 40y,
NPPs will still be operational into the 2050s
South Korea:
4 reactors under construction
Target of 60% of nuclear share in electricity by 2030 (vs. ~35% today)
Other Countries:
Brasil, Russia, South Africa, Sweden, UK, Finland, Czech Republic, Poland
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.15
Because the Case for Nuclear Energy Remains Compelling
Reliable
Sustainable
Competitive Low cost of electricity & robust profitability
Electricity cost certainty
Security of supply
Safety & performance
Low environmental impact- Saving Natural resources
Recyclable
> Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.16
In Conclusion
Mexico needs energy that is
Clean
Affordable
Attainable
Reliable & Secure
Economically Beneficial
Nuclear Energy must be part of
Mexico’s Energy Portfolio > Economic Feasibility of Nuclear in the Global Energy Landscape – K. Clark – May 31, 2013 – p.17
