Economic Aspects, Agricultural Productivity and Ecological ... · and New Orleans flooded • A...
Transcript of Economic Aspects, Agricultural Productivity and Ecological ... · and New Orleans flooded • A...
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Carbon Sequestration by Desert
Rehabilitation
Economic Aspects, Agricultural Productivity
and Ecological Considerations
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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) press release ,
..."the solar increases do not have the ability to cause large global
temperature increases...greenhouse gases are indeed playing the
dominant role..." The Sun is once again less bright as we approach
solar minimum, yet global warming continues .
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• The truth about global warming - it's the Sun
that's to blame (The Telegraph)
• The researchers around Sami K. Solanki stress
the fact that solar activity has remained on a
roughly constant (high) level since about 1980 -
apart from the variations due to the 11-year
cycle - while the global temperature has
experienced a strong further increase during that
time
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Global Climate Change – Our
Worst Nightmare
• Exponential growth of CO2 concentration drives
exponential temperature increase.
• Temperature increase is enhanced and accentuated by
land use change (deforestation) and positive feedback
mechanisms: Release of CO2 and Methane from thawing
permafrost, lower ice albedo, increased exposed water
surface, more irrigation etc.
• The major negative feedback mechanism to greenhouse
warming - cloud formation - is inhibited by deforestation.
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Global Change Today: A Disaster
Tomorrow: Utter Disarray Today:
• Hundred thousands of climate related deaths, could be millions
• Hundreds of billions of climate related damages
In the last few years alone!
In 2100: 50% chance for + 5oC or more:
• No more polar ice
• Sea levels rose by 1 m and rising: Everglades, major East Coast cities and New Orleans flooded
• A billion or more climate struck refugees
• Maldives flooded
• Coral Reefs disappeared
• No more Alpine-, Himalayan- and Andean Glaciers (water security of 3 billion people)
• Siberian towns sinking in melting permafrost soils
• etc, etc
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Global Climate Change is already here!
Observed Global Warming Today
Anomalies from Predictions!!
Deforestation?
Don’t forget to watch the movie!
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Concentration under Current
Trends
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Concentration with Biosphere
Rehabilitation Program
Are there sufficient available areas?
Degraded Drylands!
THE SOLUTION: Carbon sequestration into biomass and soil,
Coupled to development of biomass energy industry
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THE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ERA
BEGAN THOUSANDS OF YEARS AGO
WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN
Climatic Change 61: 261–293, 2003.
Global Climate Change is Amplified by Deforestation, by Increase in
Greenhouse Gasses and by Large Scale Vegetation Dependent Climate
Effects
How much degraded
drylands are there?
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Historic Degradation: Mediterranean
Coast: 90% degraded
Degree and extend of degradation are much more
dramatic than we are willing to recognize
Critias: «Soil has been carried to the bottom of the sea.. Earthy high mountains, that in the past carried tall forest and large pastures, have become rocky lands and look like the bones of a sick body... In the past rain water was utilized and did not run on the barren land to the sea as it does now. It infiltrated and stored into the soil and it was distributed in springs, fountains and river streams » .
Plato
(427-347 BCE)
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1970 2001
Deforestation Mau Escarpment,
Nakuru, Kenya
Massive Deforestation:
The driving force in
Ethiopia’s failures
Recent Degradation - North East Africa: 95% degraded!
A century ago, about 30% of
the total land area of Eritrea
was covered by forest. This
figure dwindled to 11% in
1952 and in 1960 was
estimated to be 5%. Today,
the closed and open forest
covers less than 1%,
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Israel - less degraded 1 - 5%
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Degraded 95 - 99%
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Experimental proof of degradation by JNF: wherever
planted, trees survive, grow and proliferate – large
underused productivity potential
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CONCLUSION 1
• Land degradation across the globe is high
even if currently no ongoing desertification
is observed
• Dryland areas can be ‘overstocked’ with
trees almost at will for creation of carbon
sinks, agroforestry or biomass production
• Available areas: 10 billion ha or more
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Area (Bha) Area (%) Rainfall (mm) P/PET (UNEP,
1992)
Classification
1.00 7.50 < 200 < 0.05 Hyperarid
1.62 12.1 < 200 (winter) or
<400
(summer)
0.05 < P/PET <
0.20
Arid
2.37 17.7 200 - 500 (winter)
or 400 - 600
(summer)
0.20 < P/PET <
0.50
Semi-arid
1.32 9.90 500 - 700 (winter)
or 600 - 800
(summer)
0.50 < P/PET <
0.65
Dry subhumid
6.31 47.2 TOTAL
t C ha-1y-1 Sink per year (Gt carbon) 0 – 1 0.5 1 – 2 2.5 2 – 4 7 4 – 8 8
~18 Gt/a
Carbon Sink Potential at the Example of Drylands
Why Reforestations will Mitigate Global Warming 1:
Technically easy, conflicts of interest high
Technically more challenging, less conflicts of interest, more
efficient against desertification
1/3 degraded = available land ~6 Gt/a
THAT IS A POTENTIAL WE CAN NOT NEGLECT,
NEITHER FOR GREENHOUSE MITIGATION NOR FOR
AGRICULTURE!!
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CO2 bands Water Bands Methane bands
Photoinhibition
P680/p700
Why Reforestations will Mitigate Global Warming 2: Green vegetation reflects at anti-greenhouse wavelengths!
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Simulated cloud water content above
deforested (top) and forested
(bottom) tropical landscapes
Why Reforestations will Mitigate Global Warming 3: Forests Massively Influence Temperature and water Balances!
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Why Reforestations will Mitigate Global Warming 4: Forests create their own climate!
Coastal Rain Forest near San Francisco
~ 500 mm mean annual precipitation
Desert Cloud Forest, Oman
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PNAS 102, 2005
Trees and Climate
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Precipitation Changes in South West Australia
Impact of land cover change on the climate
of southwest Western Australia
A. J. Pitman and G. T. Narisma
Department of Physical Geography, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
R. A. Pielke Sr.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
N. J. Holbrook
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CONCLUSIONS 2
• Reforestation and rehabilitation will
mitigate climate change by carbon
sequestration and by a large range of
vegetation induced benefits on:
• Water cycle
• Nutrient cycling
• Soil conservation and restoration
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Savannization and new
afforestations
Sav
ann
ization
New
Plan
tations
Green Line Lahav Forest
Wildlife Migration Corridor Yattir Forest
Rehabilitation and Carbon Sink of the Lehavim-
Yattir Area
An average carbon sink of about 65 tons per ha will be
achieved in the next 50 years by rehabilitation of marginal
degraded lands in the Lehavim-Yattir area, leaving agricultural
areas and nature reserves untouched!
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Value in
Carbon
Market
(mio $)
Carbon sink
potential (mio
tons of
carbon)
Areas with 200
– 400 mm
mean annual
precipitation
38 3.8 564 Israel
93 3.1 454 Palestine
294 9.8 1441 Jordan
501 16.7 2459 Total
Applying the same principles to all degraded semi arid regions, a
carbon sink of around 100 Gt can be achieved!
Including rehabilitation of degraded sub-humid and degraded humid
areas, double that amount can be fixed!
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Productive Woodlands - Agroforestry: Olives, Ficus, Carob (Lehavim, < 300 mm/a)
Pasture improved, plus fruit, wood and biomass!
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Pasture Improvement Project • plants and planting cost about $ 2.- per plant including creation of water harvesting
ditches, (manual planting at labor cost of $ 5.- per hour)
• initial watering $ 0.5 - 1.- per plant(which can be omitted less arid regions),
• fencing (optional) $ 80.- per ha for 100 ha plot.
• With 300 trees per ha planted this project ends up with establishment costs of less
than 1000.- $ per ha and a carbon sink of over 100 t per ha.
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Approach: Rehabilitation of Degraded Lands Worldwide by Large Scale Dryland
Agroforestry for Food and Biomass Production in Degraded and Vulnerable
Drylands – Based on Private Initiative and Carbon Trading
Investments Required can be Covered by Carbon Trading
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It has not been done so far. Why?
Capital and Land Required!!
Who can provide the capital?
a) Governments:
Inefficient, bureaucratic, corrupt – no!
b) International Development Agencies
Tried for fifty years and failed
c) Non Government Organizations
Good job, no capital
d) carbon trading – yes!
50 – 100 billion per year potentially
available for mitigation projects, bound
to increase
How can it work:
Degraded land is allocated to interested
parties.
50 – 200 ha of degraded dryland per family,
5000 – 20000 ha to enterprises.
Carbon banks (to be created) grant interest
free loans in the height of expected carbon
sink against all or part of the land value
(mortgaging), and plan and supervise
planting and maintenance.
Multipurpose plantations will provide profit
after 3 – 5 years for improved income
After 50 years standing biomass value is $
5000 – 10000 per ha), the loan can be
returned!
Agro-forestry has been long recognized as the best solution for
sustainable agriculture and biomass production
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RATIONALE
• Multipurpose and fruit trees provide multiple benefits
• Multipurpose trees grow and produce in arid and even hyperarid zones: fruit, biomass (solid and liquid fuels), fodder, soil improvement, nutrient cycling, water balance etc.
• Private landowners will guard the trees because of benefits supplied and financial commitment
• Private lands will be mortgaged against the carbon sequestration funds received
• Land will be confiscated in case of contract violations
• Carbon trading becomes a one to one contract issue instead of huge bureaucratic mess!
URGENT REQUIREMENT - CLEAR LAND POLICIES:
Privatization for Commercial Use or Rehabilitation of Public Lands for Recreation and Ecology
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Brazilian Peppertree 3 years Acacia 3 years
Neem 2 years
Balanites 2 years Ziziphus 1 year
Dryland Trees for Rapid Planting and Establishment
The plants shown were
established with initial
watering alone and grow
and survive well at 200
mm/a.
Major problems:
competition by annual
grasses, herbivory
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Seed:
Moisture 4.0; Ash 4.2; Protein 30.9;
Fat 57.0; Fibre 2.4; Carbohydrate
(by difference) 1.5
Marula flesh (g/100 g): Moisture
91.7; Ash 0.2; Protein 0.5; Fat 0.1;
Fibre 0.5; Carbohydrate (by
difference) 7.0
Multipurpose Plantations: Marula, Ziziphus, Balanites
A Model for Rural Development and Rehabilitation
Cattle, Livestock
Litter, Foliage
Fruit
Oil
Food
Ethanol Biodiesel
Soil recovery
Wood, Cutting Residues Energy (Heat, Electricity)
Pressing
Cake (Protein and
Carbohydrate)
Industry
Wildlife
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Economics:
Investments required are easily covered by carbon trading; plantations
can be established for anything from $ 500 – 1000 per ha with expected
sink of 50 – 150 tons per ha:
To create market incentives and avoid collapse by overproduction:
Absorption of surpluses and waste biomass for development of biomass
energy (successive introduction of wood, charcoal, biogas, biodiesel and
bioethanol)
World Bank Study Nigeria
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SUMMARY:
• Degree of Land Degradation is Huge, Creating Huge Opportunities for Rehabilitation
• Private Land Ownership and Carbon Trading can Rapidly Establish the Potentials to make a Difference
• Multipurpose Trees will Supply Income from Food and Fodder Produced during Recovery
• Development of a Biomass Energy Market Constitutes the Engine to move the Process forward
Thank You Very Much!