Economic and Social Cost of Crime
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Transcript of Economic and Social Cost of Crime
![Page 1: Economic and Social Cost of Crime](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062517/568136be550346895d9e5c06/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic and Social Cost of Crime
Application in Criminal Careers
Crime and Justice User DayJoe Perman: Assistant Economist, Scottish Government
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Purpose
• What data we use
• What we use the cost estimates for– Total costs – useful to know??– Value for money of interventions
• e.g Who should we target with limited resources
• What else could we be doing?
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Data sources
• Economic and Social Costs of Crime
• Scottish Crime and Justice Survey
• Reconviction Rates in Scotland
• Police Recorded and Cleared Up Crime
• Criminal Proceedings in Scottish Courts
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Anticipation
Consequence
Response
SecurityInsurance
Property, lost output, health services,
emotional and physical impact
Criminal Justice System(courts, police, prisons, etc)
Economic and Social Costs of Crime
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Unit Costs of Crime
£24,719
£8,403 £6,700 £4,774 £3,770 £2,072 £999 £731 £127
£28,726
£88,731
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
£80,000
£90,000
£100,000
Offence
Co
st p
er o
ffen
ce
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Multipliers
• We may have data on the number of police recorded crime or convictions – but we are interested in the actual incidence of crime
• i.e. including those which are not reported or recorded for various reasons
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CONVICTION RATE
ACTUAL CRIME RATE
POLICE RECORDED CRIME RATE
CLEAR-UP RATE
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2
4
9
1
1
34
388
SHOPLIFTING
SERIOUS ASSAULT
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How we get there
Charges proved from Criminal Proceedings
Police clear up rate
Police recorded crimes
Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (and business surveys, research)
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Table of multipliers and costsCrime/offence group Scotland crime/Offence name Conviction Cleared up Recorded Actual incidence Unit cost (£2010/11)
Non-sexual crimes of violence
Murder 1 1 1 1 £ 1,736,998
Serious assault 1 2 3 11 £ 25,504
Robbery and assault with intent to rob 1 3 5 6 £ 8,670
Other non-sexual crimes of violence 1 5 6 14 £ 9,591
Crimes of indecency
Rape & attempted rape 1 17 31 176 £ 83,487
Indecent assault etc 1 7 12 116 £ 31,111
Other crimes of indecency 1 3 5 5 £ 2,137
Crimes of dishonesty
Housebreaking 1 4 16 36 £ 3,891
Theft by OLP 1 5 20 63 £ 755
Theft by from a motor vehicle (OLP) 1 3 20 70 £ 1,022
Theft of a motor vehicle & contents including taking & driving 1 8 18 19 £ 4,927
Theft by shoplifting 1 3 4 61 £ 131
Other theft 1 5 23 70 £ 755
Other crimes of dishonesty 1 3 4 13 £ 755
Fire-raising, vandalism etc
Fire-raising 1 5 25 148 £ 1,031
Vandalism, etc 1 6 23 138 £ 1,031
Miscellaneous offences
Minor assault 1 4 5 13 £ 6,913
Minor assault of an emergency worker 1 4 5 13 £ 1,714
Breach of the peace 1 5 5 5 £ 2,137
Drunkenness 1 36 36 36 £ 2,137
Other miscellaneous offences 1 13 14 14 £ 2,137
Other crimes
Crimes against public justice 1 3 3 3 £ 2,137
Handling an offensive weapon 1 2 3 3 £ 2,137
Drugs 1 5 5 5 £ 2,137
Other crimes 1 1 1 1 £ 2,137
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An assumption too far?
• Multipliers fine at population level analysis, but what about small samples?
• Individuals? One conviction of housebreaking means we guess that person has actually broke into 9
• Some people better at not getting caught?
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Applications
• Total Cost of Crime
• Value for Money of Criminal Interventions
• Reducing Reoffending Project
• Presumption against short term sentences
• Criminal careers– Males, females, under/over 21– Persistent offenders vs long term prisoners
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Total costs - Tree plotMinor assault (£1,786m) Breach of the
peace (£186m)
Other miscellaneous (£140m)
Indecent assault etc (£504m) Rape and attempted rape (£400m)
Oth
er i
ndec
ency
(£2
2m)
Shoplifting (£402m) Housebreaking (£167m)
Theft (£127m)
Vehicle crime (£86m)
Other dishonesty (£39m)
Serious assault (£340m)
Murder (£148m)
Other violent crime (£84m)
Robbery and assault (£59m)
Vandalism (£298m)
Others (£25m)Drugs (£87m)
Other crimes (£79m)
Miscellaneous offences
Crimes of indecency
Crimes of dishonesty
Crimes of violence
Other crimes
Vandalism and fire-raising
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Breakdown of the costs of crimeInsurance
Administration1%
Defensive Expendiutre
5%
Physical and Emotional Impact
34%
Net value of property
13%
Lost Output6%
Health Services 2%
CJS Costs39%
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Value for money of Criminal Justice Interventions
• Ex-Post – evaluating interventions • Ex-Ante – using historical offending data
to look at “what if” scenarios
• Both aimed at identifying the value for money in policies aimed at reducing reoffending based on the costs of crime and therefore the potential savings from reducing it
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Offences before/after
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Non-sexualcrimes ofviolence
Crimes ofindecency
Crimes ofdishonesty
Fire-raising,vandalism etc
Miscellaneousoffences
Other crimes
Offence category
Before
After
Decrease from 2,800 to 1,900 --> 32% fall
Persistent Offenders Project
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0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
-1200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1200
Days from POP intervention
Off
en
ces
pe
r d
ay p
er o
ffen
der
Persistent Offenders Project –
Pre and post intervention crime rates
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Persistent Offenders Project - Total Costs
Cost of crime
Before After Savings
£30 million £19 million £11 million
Project Cost = £1million over the 3 years
NET BENEFITS of £10 million
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illustrative!!
• we are not implying causality
• use the estimates to illustrate the potential savings available
• Magnitudes, rather than pounds and pence
• Should be used in conjunction with other quantitative and qualitative data
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Presumption against short sentences
• Don’t know the impact on reoffending by moving someone from custodial sentence to community sentence– Differing characteristics etc
• Use breakeven analysis to find the reducing in offending needed to balance out the increased costs
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Number of years since index conviction/release from custody
Perce
nt rec
onvic
ted
Custody (3 months or less) Community Service Order
Probation Order Supervised Attendance Order
Community Payback Order (modelled)
Reconviction rate over time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Number of years since index conviction/release from custody
Annu
al av
erag
e rec
onvic
tions
Custody (3 months or less) Community Service Order
Probation Order Supervised Attendance Order
Community Payback Order (modelled)
Average annual number of reconvictions
Reoffending Rates/Frequencies
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Custodial Cohort Costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year
£M
illio
n
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1%£6m
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Criminal Careers
• Follow cohort over 10 years using unit level conviction data
• Split by age and gender to start with
• Only looking at the ‘average’ across each cohort, will be differing distinct ‘types’ within each groups
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Criminal Careers
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
freq
uen
cy o
f co
nvi
ctio
ns
Average Male Female Under 21 Over 21
Frequency of convictions
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£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year
aver
age
cost
per
off
end
er
Average Male Female Under 21 Over 21
Cost of Reoffending
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£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
£700
£800
£900
£1,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Avera
geyear
aver
age
cost
per
off
ence
Female Male Under 21 Over 21
Average cost per offence
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Persistent versus long term
• Where should we focus limited resources
• The ‘serious’, high tariff long term prisoners are an easy target
• But what about the harder segment, low tariff, persistent offenders?
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0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
fre
qu
en
cy
(a
ve
rag
e n
um
be
r o
f c
on
vic
tio
ns
pe
r o
ffe
nd
er)
3 previous
short sentence
long term
Frequency of convictions
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
£ (a
vera
ge
cost
per
off
end
er)
3 previous
short sentence
long term
Average cost per offender
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Cost as a proxy for seriousness
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3 previous short sentence long term
Offender type
Per
cen
tag
e o
f cr
imes
Other Total
Damage Total
Dishonesty Total
Sexual Total
Violence Total
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Average cost per offender
Average per offender
Number in segment
Prolific (3 previous)
£ 180,000 20,365
Very short term (< 6 months)
£ 277,000 4,139
Long term (> 4 years)
£ 147,000 401
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Size does matter?
Violence
Dishonesty
Damage
Other
Sexual
Prolific (3+ previous)£3.9 billion
Very short termers£1.1 billion
Long termers£59 million
![Page 34: Economic and Social Cost of Crime](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062517/568136be550346895d9e5c06/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
What next??
• Defining the segments?
• Where else could you see cost estimates being used?
• ???