Monetary Policy Group June 2020

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx

Economic and Monetary Conditions May 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector

2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 13

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

1

1. Executive Summary

In May 2020, the Thai economy continued to contract substantially due to external demand, both in tourism sector and merchandise exports. The former continued to extremely contract as a result of international travel restrictions. The latter further contracted from weakening trading partner demand. Consequently, domestic economic activities were affected especially private investment indicators and manufacturing production which contracted at a higher rate. Nevertheless, public spending continued to expand. Meanwhile, private consumption indicators contracted somewhat lower rate owing to the relaxation of lockdown measures and the government’s COVID-19 relief measures.

On the stability front, headline inflation was more negative due to lower fresh food and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account was nearly balanced. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from both the asset and the liability positions.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to contract extremely at 100 percent from the same period last year. There was none of foreign tourist arrivals for the second consecutive month due to the implementation of Thailand’s inbound travel restrictions. As a result, businesses and labor in tourism-related sector were severely affected.

The value of merchandise exports contracted sharply by 23.6 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value shrank to 29.0 percent. The high contraction of exports was in almost all categories and markets due to weak trading partner demand and low global crude oil prices as well as the effect from drought leading to the high contraction in exports of sugar. However, there was only an agricultural product that can expand, mainly fruits to China.

Private consumption indicators continued to contract significantly from the same period last year in all spending categories due to weakening supporting factors including employment, income, and consumer confidence. However, the contraction rate was slightly lower from the previous month due to the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures leading some economic activities to resume operations, the government’s COVID-19 relief measures, and farm income which contracted at a lower rate. Together with the high level of inventories, weakening domestic and external demand contributing manufacturing production to contract at a higher rate.

Private investment indicators continued to contract at a higher rate from the same period last year, from both investment in machinery and equipment as well as construction. This reflected that businesses delayed their investment plans as excess production capacity remained high due to weak domestic and external demand, coupled with business’s concern over the economic outlook in the periods ahead that remained highly uncertain.

The value of merchandise imports contracted sharply at 34.2 percent from the same period last year. The contraction was in all categories including consumer goods, raw materials and intermediate goods, and capital goods, reflecting weak economic activities. The sharp decline in merchandise imports led to an increase in the trade balance although merchandise exports highly contracted.

Public spending continued to expand from the same period last year, reflecting a role of the government to support the economy when other economic drivers were muted. Nevertheless, excluding

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

2

transfer, public spending was flat due to the contraction in current expenditures and state enterprise’s capital expenditures after highly expanding in March and April although capital expenditures of central government continued to expand.

Overall economic stability remained sound, though more vulnerable. Headline inflation was more negative than the previous month due to a decline in fresh food and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable as reflected by the continued acceleration of the number of jobless claims on the social security system. The current account became balanced, after a deficit last month, from a large surplus in the trade balance. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from both the asset and the liability positions despite the net sell in portfolios by foreign investors.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

3

2.1 Supply

Farm income contracted at a lower rate from the same period last year, following agricultural outputs. However, agricultural prices turned into contraction after expanding continuously in the preceding period. Manufacturing production further contracted, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. Service sector continued to strongly contract as the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures was still in the initial stage.

Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1 2 1 2 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May

Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 1. 1. . . 1.8 .1 -4.3

Agricultural productionP -0.7 . 1. 1.2 . -6.5 12.2 -1.3

Agricultural price

1.9 . 2. 2. . 8.9 . .

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. 1.2 2. 11. . .2 . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. . 2 . 1 . . . . - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 2 . 1 . 2. .1 . - Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . . 21. 1 . .1 .2 . - Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . . . . Petroleum . . .2 11. . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . . Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 1. . .2 . 2. . Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . . . . .1 21. 1 . Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. . 1. 1.2 . . 1 . IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 12.2 .1 . . 1 .1 1 . Electrical Appliances . . . . 1. . . . 1. .2Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . . 1 . . 22. . 2 .1Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . . . . . . . Others 1 . . . . .2 .1 . .2 2 . 1 . MPI 1 . . 1. . .2 . . 1 .2 2 .2 . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

1 . 2. .1 1. 2. . 1 . .

Capacity Utilization (SA) . . . . . .1 . 2.

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

455565758595

105115125

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

-5.3 %

-1.8 %

-9.1 %

%MoM sa

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

4

75

85

95

105

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

%MoM sa

-8.9 %

-23.1 %

Mar = -1.1 %**

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

(%)Share2016R

2019 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP

Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . . . .1

Automotives 1 . . . . 1.2 . 1 . 2 .1

Petroleum . .1 2. . . . . 1.

Chemicals .2 . . . . .2 1. .

Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . . .

Cement & Construction . . . . . .2 . .2

IC & Semiconductors . . . . 1.1 . . .

Electrical Appliances . . 1. . . 2. 1. .

Textiles & Apparels . . . . 2. . . .

Hard Disk Drive . . .2 2. 1. 1. . .

Others 1 . . . . .1 . . .

CAPU sa 1 . . . . . .1 . 2.

Capacity Utilization (sa)

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Professional Services (4%) Hotel & Restaurant (10%, RHS)

Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

5

2.2 Domestic Demand

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

%YoY 2 2 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 .4 .6 1.1 1.1 -11.8 -7.5 6.4Semi-durables index . .2 .1 .7 .8 -1.6 -5.3 -7.2 -1.8Durables index 2. 2. .2 . . -12.0 37.5 32.0 9.5Services index 2. 3.0 2. 2.1 .1 -10.0 -30.9 -29.7 0.9

less Net tourist spending . . .2 .2 2. -41.0 -89.0 86.8 25.6

PCI 2.5 .5 .6 .3 1.9 1.6 -14.4 -12.5 3.0

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Source: Bank of Thailand

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma

Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

% YoY 20192 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) . .2 . .2 . 2. . . -0.6

Construction Materials Index . . 2. . . . . 2. -14.3Real Imports of Capital Goods . . . . . .2 . 2 . -5.2Real Domestic Machinery Sales . . .2 . . . . . 2.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment . 2. . 2. . . 2 . . -10.6

Private Investment Index 2. .2 . 2. .2 . . 2. -2.2

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Private consumption indicators continued to contract considerably from the same period last year, albeit at a slower pace after the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures. Private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate, consistent with weak demand. Meanwhile, public spending, excluding transfers, remained flat compared with the same period last year.

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

20406080100120140160180

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

6

60

110

160

210

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

May-1.5%

May8.1%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

May-11.2%

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019

FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May

Revenue 2,513 2 2(%YoY) (6.8) . 2. 2. 2. . . 2. . . . Expenditure1/ 2,882 2 2 (%YoY) (3.1) .2 2.2 . . . . . . 2 . . Budgetary B/L -368 2 22 2 Non-Budgetary B/L -28 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) -396 2 2 2 2 2 Primary balance 2/ -258 2 2 2 22 2 Net Financing 506 2 2 Treasury B/L 633 2 2 2

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

30

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

Aug 20 41.1

May 20 .

Business Sentiment Index

Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)

Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

7

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayMay

(%MoM)

Consumer Raw material & Intermediate

o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel

Capital

Others

Total (BOP Basis)

Ex. Gold

Ex.Gold&Fuel %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueApr 2020 = 15.3 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 15.3 Bn USD

May 2020 = 12.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 12.6 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May May(%MoM)

Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing

Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical

Appliances

Automotive Machinery & Equipment

Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis)

Ex. Gold Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related

Export ValueApr 2020 = 17.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 15.4 Bn USD

May 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD

The current account was nearly balanced after a deficit last month. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus both from the asset and the liability positions.

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PH

IDMYTH

TWCN

SGKR

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

US (May) Euro Area* (Apr) Japan (Apr)

G3 Retail Sales

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

May 20

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE YTD

Trade Balance

Exports (f.o.b.)

%YoY

Imports (f.o.b.)

%YoY

Net Services, Income & Transfers

Current Account

Capital and Financial Account

Overall Balance

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE YTD1. Assets TDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings

Thai portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment

Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad

2. Liabilities FDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings

Foreign portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment

Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad

Total financial flows (1+2)

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20192019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP

China (27.6%)

Malaysia (10.5%)

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)

Russia (3.7%)

Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)

India (5.0%)

Others (9.6%) Total(million persons)

(39.8)

(19.8)

(20.0)

(10.3)

(6.7)

(0.0)

(0.0)

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

9

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Total corporate financing decreased compared with the previous month from debt securities. New loans extended to private sector expanded from the previous month, but at a slower pace, from corporate loans. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in May 2020 and the NEER appreciated compared with the previous month.

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 May 20 25 Jun 20

-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.37

1.46

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.46

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.50

8.54

1.4

1.

1.1

6.28

7.31

7.58

8.

8.54

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.31

7.59

8.

8.44

0.54

1.13

0.66

5.36

6.75

6.91

6.00

7.22

7.89

0.49

1.00

0.60

5.36

6.71

6.91

6.00

7.12

7.89

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 25 Jun 20

0.50

0.860.51

1.30

0.45

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

-120-80-40

04080

120160200240280

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Apr-2

0

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

May 20P

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

10

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

7

16-F

eb-1

8

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

8

13-Ju

l-18

3-Se

p-18

19-O

ct-1

8

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

9

8-M

ay-1

9

26-Ju

n-19

14-A

ug-1

9

30-S

ep-1

9

18-N

ov-1

9

8-Ja

n-20

25-F

eb-2

0

13-A

pr-2

0

2-Ju

n-20

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

Jun USDTHB = 31.19NEER25 = 124.02

As of 25 Jun 2020

5.9%

1.9%

0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

-0.5% -0.6%-1.1%

5.2%

2.6%

-0.1%

0.5%0.8%

-0.4%

1.8%

3.4%

1.0%1.7%

0.3%1.7%

2.3%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

IDR THB INR VND TWD JPY SGD EUR PHP MYR CNY KRW GBP

Avg of May 20 compared to avg of Apr 20

Avg of Jun 20 compared to avg of May 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

Jun 2020(Average data

until 25 Jun 2020)

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

19-Ju

l-19

20-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

16-O

ct-1

914

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

915

-Jan-

2013

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

010

-Apr

-20

13-M

ay-2

011

-Jun-

20

HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD

As of 25 Jun 2020

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

11

2.5 Financial stability

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

Headline inflation contribution%YoY

May-3.44%

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 22% of total jobless claims**

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33 %, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.

** 2020, 5-month averageSource: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & PlasticsAutomotives

Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)

Man

-Mon

th (1

,000

Wor

kers

-Mon

th

Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)

** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.

Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contribution%YoY

May0.01%( ) Share in Core Inflation

Headline inflation was more negative stemming from the decline in fresh food prices and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

12

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE

Solvency Indicators

Current Account / GDP (%)

Debt / GDP (%) < /

Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /

Debt Service Ratio (%) 8 6 7

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times

ST Debt / Total Debt (%)

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change May20-Apr20H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE

1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit

5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

13

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

14

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020

15

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636