Economic and Financial Outlook for 2010 · 2015. 7. 17. · Global economic outlook • ANZ forward...
Transcript of Economic and Financial Outlook for 2010 · 2015. 7. 17. · Global economic outlook • ANZ forward...
Global & euro zone update
Amber RabinovSenior Economist
ANZ Research
March 2012
1
Global economic outlook
• ANZ forward indicators of the global economy stabilised in late 2011 and are now picking up.
• Advanced economies face headwinds - fiscal austerity, deleveraging by households and financial institutions. Inflation pressures will be muted amid sizable spare capacity. Policy rates will be near zero for a long time.
– The US recovery will remain vulnerable to setback and shocks without a fully fledged housing recovery. There are some signs US housing is improving but there is a long way to go yet.
– Europe’s problems continue. Recent policy actions (eg. ECB’s LTRO) appear to have got some traction with a positive impact on sovereign yields and auctions. Activity has stabilised, but unemployment continues to rise.
• Emerging economies will be the main driver of global growth. Policy settings are such that there is plenty of scope to support growth if need be.
– China has slowed (“soft landing”) as desired by the authorities. This has growth on a sustainable path.
• Europe remains the biggest risk to the outlook. With the banking crisis of 2008 still fresh investor minds, even a small chance of a significant financial event will hamper risk appetite for the foreseeable future.
– That said, a rising risk (particularly for the US outlook) is the recent rise in oil prices (WTI).
2
Emerging markets remain main driver of global growth
Industrial production World trade
World GDP Contribution to world GDP
Source: Bloomberg, CPB Netherlands, ANZ
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
W orldEast A s ia ex -JapanG 7
(Ann. % c hange) Forec ast
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
(%)
Asia ex Japan G7Other World
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1255
85
115
145
175
205
235World, lhsAdvanced, lhsEmerging, rhs
(Index) (Index)
80
100
120
140
160
180
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
3
ANZ lead indicators point to a pick up in global macro conditions
ANZ inventory pulse ANZ Lead indicator and global IP
ANZ Lead indicator and risk appetiteANZ lead indicator and inventory pulse
Source: Bloomberg, BoAML, ANZ
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2008 2009 2010 2011
Dev
12 m
th tre
nd
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Dev
12 m
th tre
nd
US new ords/inventory EU new ords/inventoryJapan new orders/inventory China new ords/inventory
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Index
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Dev f
rom
12 m
th t
rend
A NZ G lo ba l le a d Ind ica to r inde x (LHS )A NZ S te e l-w e igh te d IP (R HS )
80
100
120
140
160
180
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Index
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3D
ev f
rom
12 m
th t
rend
A NZ G lo ba l le a d Ind ica to r inde x (LHS )A NZ G lo ba l ra tio ne w o rde rs /inv ento ry (R HS )
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
05 06 07 08 10 11
ANZ risk appetite ANZ global inventory pulse indicator
dev fro
m 1
2 m
th tre
nd
4
Lead indicators – picking up
Broad regional PMIs
Asian PMI
‘Strong’ Europe PMI
‘Weak’ Europe PMI
Source: Bloomberg, ANZ
20
30
40
50
60
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
C hinaS ingaporeSouth KoreaTaiwanIndia
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
USJapanEuro zoneChina
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
GermanyFranceUK
30
40
50
60
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
ItalySpainGreeceIreland
5
Spain
Canada
NZ
India
Korea
Hong Kong
SingaporeBelgium
Denmark
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Portugal US
Germany
France UK
Australia
China
Taiwan
Indonesia
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Fiscal Deficit % GDP, 2012f
Net
Deb
t %
GD
P, 2
012
f
Advanced economies face substantial headwinds – large fiscal debts and sizable consolidation programs
Fiscal & Debt position
Source: IMF, ANZ
6
A broadening US recovery is a key pre-requisite for better global prospects – we are cautiously optimistic
Source: Bloomberg
Household credit growth
-5
0
5
10
15
20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
(% y/y)
Housings starts and NAHB
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Housing starts, lhs
NAHB housing index, rhs
('000, saar) (Index)
Small business optimism
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(Index)
ISM - manufacturing
20
30
40
50
60
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
(Index)
CompositeNew orders
7
The US labour market is continuing to improve, particularly in terms of private sector job creation
Non-farm payrolls Unemployment and participation rates
Non-farm payrolls and temporary help Jobless claims
Source: Bloomberg, ANZ
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Jan11
Feb11
Mar11
Apr11
May11
Jun11
Jul11
Aug11
Sep11
Oct11
Nov11
Dec11
Jan12
Private PublicLT avg private LT avg public
(m/m '000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1263
64
65
66
67
68
Unemployment rate, lhs
Participation rate, rhs
(%) (%)
1
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11100
110
120
130
140
Temporary help, lhs
Non-farm payrolls, rhs
(mn) (mn)
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Actual
8 week m.a.
('000)
8
How do you solve a problem called the euro zone?
Gross government debt
Source: IMF, Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
% o
f G
DP
Italy Greece Portugal
Germany Spain France
Ireland Australia New Zealand
IMF forecasts
9
How will Europe’s unsustainable public debt be funded?
Source: IMF, Bloomberg
10-year sovereign bond yields
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ireland Italy Portugal
Spain Germany Greece (RHS)
% %
10
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
€-coin index, 3mths fwd (lhs) EZ GDP (rhs)
Annu
al %
chan
geIndex
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Greece Germany France Portugal Ireland Italy
Inde
x, J
an 2
005 =
100
Greece's bank demand deposits the only to decline
f l
The ‘solution’ – grow your way out – highly unlikely. Forced deleveraging – yes. Policy support – yes. Austerity vs monetary reflation
Forced deleveraging
Source: ECB, Bloomberg
Slow economic growth
Unemployment rates
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
IFO - Business Climate
Index
Record high
German business conditions
4
6
8
10
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
(%)
6
10
14
18
22Germany France
Italy Spain, rhs
(%)
11
‘Misery’ indices amongst European nations
Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg, ANZ Research
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125
10
15
20
25
30Euro zone Germany France ItalyAustria Netherlands Spain, rhs
unem
plo
ymen
t ra
te p
lus
inflat
ion r
ate u
nem
plo
ymen
t rate plu
s inflatio
n rate
12
Decoupling amongst European PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
Strong Europe Weak Europe
Source: ECB, Bloomberg
13
Weak Europe is not large
Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EM+other US Euro-strong Japan Euro-weak
World PPP weights
14
China - Property Price Index(y/y)
-4
-20
24
68
1012
1416
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Official Property Price Index ANZ Property Price Index
China’s GDP growth slowed to below potential in Q4 2011 We view that the bounce in China’s December PMI is the start of a rebound in activity; a hard landing in the property market is the biggest risk.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
y/y q/q, saar
China – GDP Growth
-5
0
5
10
15
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Consumption Investment Net Exports GDP, y/y
China – Contributions to GDP Growth
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Official PMI HSBC PMI
China – PMIs
Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, and ANZ
China – Property Price Index
15
China - ANZ Activity Index
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124
6
8
10
12
14
16
ANZ China Activity Index GDP, y/y (RHS)
Inflationary pressures continue to ease despite food price gains. Market has priced in “monetary easing”; more RRR cuts are expected. Policy to support a soft landing.
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China – Reserve Requirement Ratio
China – Bond Yields
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Apr 10 Aug 10 Dec 10 Apr 11 Aug 11 Dec 11
1-year 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year
(y/y)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Food Housing Medical Other CPI
New Weights
China – Contributions to Inflation
Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, and ANZ
China – ANZ Activity Index
16
Beijing3.1%
Hebei4.9%
Shanxi2.2%
Inner Mongolia2.6%
Liaoning4.3%
Jilin1.8%
Heilongjiang2.2%
Shanghai3.8%
Jiangsu9.6%
Zhejiang6.2%
Anhui3.0%
Fujian3.0%
Jiangxi2.2%
Shandong9.1%
Henan5.6%
Hubei3.7%
Hunan3.7%
Guangdong10.1%Guangxi
2.0%
Hainan0.5%
Chongqing1.9%
Sichuan4.2%
Guizhou1.0%
Yunnan1.6%
Tibet0.1%
Shaanxi2.3%
Gansu1.0%
Qinghai0.3%
Ningxia0.4%
Xinjiang1.2%
Tianjin2.2%
Beijing3.1%
Hebei4.9%
Shanxi2.2%
Inner Mongolia2.6%
Liaoning4.3%
Jilin1.8%
Heilongjiang2.2%
Shanghai3.8%
Jiangsu9.6%
Zhejiang6.2%
Anhui3.0%
Fujian3.0%
Jiangxi2.2%
Shandong9.1%
Henan5.6%
Hubei3.7%
Hunan3.7%
Guangdong10.1%Guangxi
2.0%
Hainan0.5%
Chongqing1.9%
Sichuan4.2%
Guizhou1.0%
Yunnan1.6%
Tibet0.1%
Shaanxi2.3%
Gansu1.0%
Qinghai0.3%
Ningxia0.4%
Xinjiang1.2%
Tianjin2.2%
Beijing3.1%
Hebei4.9%
Shanxi2.2%
Inner Mongolia2.6%
Liaoning4.3%
Jilin1.8%
Heilongjiang2.2%
Shanghai3.8%
Jiangsu9.6%
Zhejiang6.2%
Anhui3.0%
Fujian3.0%
Jiangxi2.2%
Shandong9.1%
Henan5.6%
Hubei3.7%
Hunan3.7%
Guangdong10.1%Guangxi
2.0%
Hainan0.5%
Chongqing1.9%
Sichuan4.2%
Guizhou1.0%
Yunnan1.6%
Tibet0.1%
Shaanxi2.3%
Gansu1.0%
Qinghai0.3%
Ningxia0.4%
Xinjiang1.2%
Tianjin2.2%
Upbeat growth usually takes place during the Party Congress
Provinces with leadership change in 2010-2011 China - Political Business Cycle
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
2 YearsBefore
1 YearBefore
Year ofCPC
1 YearAfter
2 YearsAfter
Average GDP Growth in Previous Cycles (1980-2009)GDP Growth in Current Cycle (2009-2014)
2010
2011
China - Provincial GDP Growth(Ranked by GDP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GD JS SD ZJ
HeN
HeB LN SC
SH
HuB
HuN FJ BJ
AH
NM HL
SN
GX JX TJ
SX JL
CQ YN XJ
GZ
GS
HN
NX
QH
XZ
2011 Growth 2012 Target2011 Average Growth
Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, and ANZ
17
Australia & NZ
18
Australia faces growing headwinds, but still has a number of factors in its favour, which should once again provide decent insulation from current troubles
Headwinds• European-led financial system disruption• An independent slowdown in China• Domestic fiscal drag• Accelerated structural change• Persistently high AUD
Insulators• Policy ammunition
– Both monetary and fiscal• Strong government finances
– AAA-rated• A healthy banking sector
– Ample liquidity and reduced call on wholesale debt markets• Relatively limited direct trade and financial exposures to Europe
– Euro area is just 4% of Australian merchandise exports– Direct exposure of Australian banks to Euro area is just 2.7% of total assets
• Simultaneous stimulus from the resources boom– An unprecedented (and so far uninterrupted) investment pipeline
19
Australia is increasingly part of Asia
Source: ANZ, RBA ASEAN 6: Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam Other Asia: HK & Taiwan
Australian two-way merchandise trade weights
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
US Europe
UK Asia
Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Japan
China
Korea
ASEAN 6
Other Asia
IndexAsiaWorld
20
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
60 70 80 90 00 10
Inde
x
Fore
cast
s
New f/c
It’s all about the terms of trade
Source: ABS, RBA and ANZ
Terms of trade since 1960 Terms of trade and 5-yr MA since 1860
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Index
, 2003 =
100
21
Australian growth is set to accelerate
Source: ABS and ANZ
GDP growth Business investment vs. consumption
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
% y
early c
hange
Forecasts
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
90 93 96 99 02 05 08 118
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Household consumption (left)Business investment (right)
% o
f G
DP
Fore
cast
s
% o
f GD
P
22
A solid lift in mining, energy and infrastructure investment has commenced
Source: Access Economics and ANZ
Forecast Major Project Investment ($Abn)
313.658.477.377.260.939.8Total
205.332.850.151.244.426.8Energy
108.325.627.226.016.513.0Mining
Total20152014201320122011
Forecast Major Project Investment ($Abn)
313.658.477.377.260.939.8Total
205.332.850.151.244.426.8Energy
108.325.627.226.016.513.0Mining
Total20152014201320122011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Communications
Hospitals
Water Supply & Sewerage
Manufacturing
Electricity
Gas Pipelines
Mining
Energy
Airports
Rail
Ports
Roads
$Abn
23
The bad news – outside of mining and related industries, the outlook has worsened
Sources: ABS and ANZ
Non-residential building approvals
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Private sector public sector
$ b
illio
n p
er
quar
ter
(rol
ling 3
m s
um
)
Public sector: 'nation-building' programs spike
Private sector: pre-GFC construction spike
24
Reflecting the increasingly ‘patchwork’ economy
Source: NAB
NAB business conditions
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Mining Manufacturing ConstructionRetail Wholesale TransportFinance, business, property Recreation & personal
Index
(3m
ma)
25
Key risk: The cost and supply of credit Risk not as heightened as 2008, but could still get very worse very quickly (leaving a current account deficit country like Australia exposed)
Source: ANZ and Bloomberg
Australian bank funding costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
5yr Bank Funding 3yr Bank Funding 5-yr Aust. Itraxx (index)
Spre
ad t
o 90d B
BS
W
Lehman Bros file for bankruptcy
Greece initial downgrade
26
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
% c
han
ge
YoY (
real
)
Retail trade related consumption in national accounts Retail trade survey, quarterly volumes
Household spending – unusual trends and conflicting drivers
Source: ABS, RBA and ANZ
Retail sales survey vs total retail spending
Consumer Confidence
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Consumer confidence 10yr average (2000-2010)
Index
>100 = 'net optimism'
<100 = 'net pessimism'
Disposable income and household consumption
Spending on goods vs services
27
The unemployment rate forecast to head above 5½%.
Labour market, monthly trend growth
Source: ABS and ANZ
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
Employment (LHS) Labour force (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS)
'000 c
hange p
er
mon
th (
trend)
% (tre
nd)
ANZ Forecast
Employment by industry, largest six sectors
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
ManufacturingConstructionRetail TradeProfessional ServicesEducationHealth
1,0
00 p
eople
em
plo
yed (
sas.
ad
j.)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Retail employment %y/y Retail sales volumes %y/y, 12 mths ahead
% y
/y s
eas.
adj
Retail sales volumes and retail employment
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Mining
Wholesale trade
Professional services
Finance & insurance
Construction
Hospitality
ALL INDUSTRIES
Real estate
Transport & post
Public admin.
IT & media
Health
Manufacturing
Other services
Retail trade
Arts & recreation
Utilities
Education
vacancies per 100 persons employed in each industry
10 yr average 2001-10 2007 average 2011 average
Vacancy rates by industry
28
Australian rates markets: Still pricing for many of the global risks to unfold
RBA cash rate: ANZ forecasts vs. market pricing
Source: Bloomberg and ANZ
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
per
cen
t
RBA Cash Rate ANZ Forecast Current Cash Rate Futures Cash Rate Futures (Nov-11)
average since 1995
29
NZ economic update
• The impact of a weak and uncertain global scene on the NZ economy remains modest. We continue to assess 6 channels.
– Credibility. It is essential the Government sticks to its fiscal austerity script. This is occurring.
– Confidence. Down but respectable and now stable from month to month as opposed to easing.
– Commodity prices. Down 8% from their peak, but recent lifts in dairy prices suggest an encouraging floor. Good volumes providing an offset to weaker prices. NZD prices still very elevated.
– China. Slowing such that policymakers are now re-engaging in support by lowering the RRR.
– Cost of funds. Elevated. Unlikely to change. Lower wholesale rates providing an offset. Deposit rates are key to watch.
– The currency. Flip-flopping but acting as a shock absorber to global events.
• Relative to global peers New Zealand continues to show a degree of resilience. However, indicators are becoming increasingly polarised.
• We have pencilled in 2.5% growth in calendar 2012 and the unemployment rate to drift gradually lower. However, a soft patch in early 2012 beckons and the risk profile is skewed downward. Core pillars of our economic assessment, namely a sluggish trend growth rate and heightened period of uncertainty and volatility, remain.
• The OCR will not be moving up until the global scene stabilises. This looks a way off. Technically we are calling a higher OCR from December 2012 but the spirit of the view is rates will not be moving up for a considerable period. The hurdle to a rate cut looks high.
• The election has been and gone with few surprises. We expect the pace of structural reform to accelerate in H1 2012. Areas such as education are likely to be focal points.
30
Mixed signals continue to permeate on how the NZ economy is performing. Growth is modest, but increasingly scratchy
Financial conditions remain supportive
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
97.8
98.2
98.6
99.0
99.4
99.8
100.2
Annual % change
GDP (LHS)
FCI (adv 10 months, inverted, RHS)
Index
830
880
930
980
1030
1080
1130
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1227282930313233343536
Jan04 = 1000
Monthly ANZ Truckometer advanced 6 months (LHS)
GDP (RHS)
Real 95/96 $bn
Monthly ANZ Truckometer and GDP levels
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 121500200025003000350040004500500055006000
$ million
Value of mortgageapprovals (2-mth ave, RHS)
Housing turnover (LHS)
$ million
Mortgage approvals and housing turnover
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'000
Unemployment rate (RHS, inverted scale)
Simple sum of newspaper and internet job ads (LHS)
Newspaper job ads (LHS)
Percent
Total job ads and unemployment rate
Sources: ANZ, National Bank, Statistics NZ, RBNZ, Seek, Trade Me, NZ Herald, The Press, Dominion Post, Manawatu Standard, ODT, Waikato Times, Hawkes Bay Today, Bloomberg
31
Disclaimer
This document (“document”) is distributed to you in Australia and the United Kingdom by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522 (“ANZ”) and in New Zealand by ANZ National Bank Limited (“ANZ NZ”). ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527 and is authorised in the UK and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”).
This document is being distributed in the United States by ANZ Securities, Inc. (“ANZ S”) (an affiliated company of ANZ), which accepts responsibility for its content. Further information on any securities referred to herein may be obtained from ANZ S upon request. Any US person(s) receiving this document and wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ANZ S, not its affiliates.
This document is being distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of its eligible counterparties and professional clients (as defined by the FSA). It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FSA definition of “retail clients”. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the FSA.
This document is issued on the basis that it is only for the information of the particular person to whom it is provided. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. This document does not take into account your personal needs and financial circumstances. Under no circumstances is this document to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy.
In addition, from time to time ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, their affiliated companies, or their respective associates and employees may have an interest in any financial products (as defined by the Australian Corporations Act 2001), securities or other investments, directly or indirectly the subject of this document (and may receive commissions or other remuneration in relation to the sale of such financial products, securities or other investments), or may perform services for, or solicit business from, any company the subject of this document. If you have been referred to ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S or their affiliated companies by any person, that person may receive a benefit in respect of any transactions effected on your behalf, details of which will be available upon request.
The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable. The views expressed in this document accurately reflect the author’s personal views, including those about any and all of the securities and issuers referred to herein. The author however makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and the information should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the author’s judgement on the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. No part of the author's compensation was, is or will directly or indirectly relate to specific recommendations or views expressed about any securities or issuers in this document. ANZ, ANZ NZ, ANZ S, their affiliated companies, their respective directors, officers, and employees disclaim any responsibility, and shall not be liable, for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (“Liability”) arising directly or indirectly (and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise) out of or in connection with the contents of and/or any omissions from this communication except where a Liability is made non-excludable by legislation.
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Important Notice
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NEW ZEALAND by:ANZ National Bank LimitedLevel 7, 1-9 Victoria Street, Wellington, New ZealandTelephone +64 4 802 2000