Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress...
Transcript of Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress...
![Page 1: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery
Prepared byOwen R. Phillips,
Benjamin R. Cook,and
Mark NewcombDepartment of Economics and Finance
Enhanced Oil Recovery InstituteUniversity of Wyoming
January 12, 2010
![Page 2: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Today’s presentation will highlight current economic work in the EORI. Projects include:
Evaluating Risk in an EOR Project. Forecasting the Impact of CO2 Subsidies
and Taxes. Estimating Costs and Tariffs for a Pipeline
Infrastructure.
2
![Page 3: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Evaluating Risk
![Page 4: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Evaluating Risk
In January 2009 we reported on the distribution of profits for the FRC Lance-Leo when the following were all allowed to change: Original Oil in Place (OOIP) Injection Rate (Injectivity) Project Area in Acres CO2 Prices Oil Prices.
4
![Page 5: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Risk: Critical Data Parameters and Uncertainty
Treating observations as means, we can define a probability distribution with a range of higher and lower values for each FRC: OOIP (-20%, +20%) triangular Injection Rate (-50%, +50%) triangular Project Area (-10%, +10%) triangular CO2 Prices ($1.00 - $3.00) uniform Oil Prices ($40 - $100) uniform
5
![Page 6: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Risk: Triangular Distribution for OOIP
Consider a triangular (bounded) probability distribution for OOIP:
6
Estimated Value of OOIP80% of Estimate
120% of Estimate
![Page 7: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Risk: Randomly Choose Values
We randomly sample a value from these distributions.
Repeating this process thousands of times (say 5,000) gives us a distribution of profits and other outcomes.
7
![Page 8: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Risk: Eventual Output
A confidence interval can be constructed for basin CO2 demand and oil supply.
8
Price of CO2
Price of Oil
90% confident that demand falls within bounds
90% confident that supply falls within bounds
Quantity of CO2 EOR Oil Quantity
![Page 9: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
CO2 Pricing
![Page 10: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Progress on CO2 Pricing
10
![Page 11: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Pricing: CO2 Contract Clauses
“The price to be paid by Buyer for all volumes purchased shall be calculated on a monthly basis, and shall be (**)% of the average of West Texas Intermediate Crude . . .”
The typically % is 2.7% up to March 1986 and 2.2% thereafter.
Data show that shipping charges are about $.50/mcf.
11
![Page 12: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Pricing: Future CO2 Pricing Behavior
These price relations are apt to change as taxes and subsidies on CO2 are set.
The IRS has published guidelines for receiving a $10/ton subsidy on CO2 stored through EOR.
12
![Page 13: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Carbon Taxes & Sequestration SubsidesImplications for CO2 Pricing
“Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of
2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454, passed House in June]
“Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009” [Kerry-Boxer, S. 1733, awaiting Senate consideration]
13
![Page 14: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CO2 Subsidies
Subsidies for Carbon Capture & Storage H.R. 2454, $90/ton for first 10GWe (90% capture) S. 1733 , $96/ton for first 10GWe (90% capture) Limited to First 10 Years of Operation
Lower Subsidies for Enhanced Oil Recovery
14
![Page 15: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Market Simulations
Experimental results show that with a simple subsidy paid to either the buyer or seller, 20-30% is bargained away to the other party (Phillips, et al (2009)).
15
![Page 16: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Taxes and Subsidies
16
Suppose there is a tax on CO2 emissions or subsidies in the form of tax credits paid to use CO2 in EOR or CCS.
CO2 sales are privately negotiated. The impact of the taxes and subsidies
can be estimated with simulated markets.
![Page 17: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Experiment Design
Participants Divided into Buyers & Sellers Buyers (can “buy” sequestration or be taxed for
their output) Sellers (represent pore-space owners and “sell”
sequestration)
Buyers Have a Two-Part Decision First, Decide How Much to Produce (i.e. electricity to
generate) Second, Privately Negotiate with Sellers to Buy
Sequestration in a Computerized Trading Environment 17
![Page 18: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pric
e in
Tok
ens
Experiment Trading Period
Average Sequestration Price by Treatment
s60t0 s40t20 s30t30 s20t40 s0t60
Subsidy• Tax
Subsidy> Tax
![Page 19: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Summary of Experiment Insights
EOR Operators & Pore-Space Owners Share the Benefits from the Sequestration Subsidies Could Mean Much Lower CO2 Prices for EOR
(more profitable projects, CO2 availability)
CO2 Sources / Power Companies Current Law Gives Pore-Space Ownership to Surface
Owner (mineral supremacy) CO2 Ownership and Liability Stays with Operator Bargaining Advantage+Liability Issues Could Mean
Sources will want to Own the Pore-Space i.e. Vertically Integrate
19
![Page 20: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Costs and Tariffs of a Pipeline Infrastructure
![Page 21: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The Bigger Infrastructure Picture
21
![Page 22: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Big Horn Basin Demand and Supply of CO2
22
![Page 23: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Green River Basin Demand and Supply of CO2
23
![Page 24: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Laramie Basin Demand and Supply of CO2
24
![Page 25: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Powder River Basin Demand and Supply of CO2
25
![Page 26: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Wind River Basin Demand and Supply of CO2
26
![Page 27: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
![Page 28: Economic Analyses for Enhanced Oil Recovery · “Cap & Trade” Bills Moving Through Congress “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009” [Waxman-Markey Bill, H.R. 2454,](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050120/5f509e5ca0bb92124211122b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The End
Questions and Comments
28