ECON 492 Week 3 1

ECON 492: Comparative Financial Crises

Week 325 September 2013

David LongworthThis material is copyrighted and is for the sole use of students registered in ECON 492. This

material shall not be distributed or disseminated to anyone other than students registered on ECON 492. Failure to abide by these conditions is a breach of copyright, and may also constitute a breach of academic integrity under the University Senate’s Academic Integrity Policy Statement.

ECON 492 Week 3 2

Where does topic fit in?

(Prediction)

Transmission

Policy ResponsePrevention

Causes

ECON 492 Week 3 3

Presentations of 2-sentence topics

ECON 492 Week 3 4

Break

• Following the break, I will have the assigned dates for your slide presentations in late October and November

ECON 492 Week 3 5

Administrative Matters

• Volunteer for class rep to administer USTA in final class

• Permission to share Queen’s e-mail of each discussant with the relevant author so that he/she can send his/her PowerPoint to the discussant.

ECON 492 Week 3 6

What the 2-Page Proposal Should Have

1. Question(s) to be answered or Hypothesis to be tested– Why is the question or hypothesis interesting?

2. Literature to be read– And any models to be referred to

3. Data sources and sources for facts to be used– Or data and facts that need to be found

4. Outline of economic analysis to be used to answer the question(s) or to test the hypothesis:– Models, statistical analysis, graphs

5. Outline of story suggested by economic analysis

ECON 492 Week 3 7

Data and Graphs

Credit Country A Credit Country B

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Data and Graphs

• Real (deflated by price index) versus nominal• Seasonally adjusted versus raw• Ratios (e.g., to GDP) versus a trending variable• Rates of change versus levels• Deviation from trend versus level versus change• Logarithms versus levels• Comparisons of levels or ratios: Index to 100 in a common

base year or a common point (crisis?) in cycle

There is no “right” answer for all circumstances, but actively think about the above.

ECON 492 Week 3 9

Data Sources

• See end of the reference list for the course• Best sources for macroeconomic data are the IMF and OECD

(World Bank for some, too)• Best source for credit, property prices, and international

banking flows is BIS• Best source for a particular country is often the central bank or

its national statistical bureau• There apparently is a librarian at Stauffer Library who specializes

in statistical sources• There are some sources that you have to log in to from a

Queen’s IP address (or through the Queen’s Library site) to be able to access (some IMF and OECD data, for example)

ECON 492 Week 3 10

Reminder: Next Week

• Two-page outline (proposal) due in class next week (October 2)– Paper copy to be given to instructor– Bring a copy for yourself too– Discussion will be about the path ahead– There will be a sign-up sheet for those of you who

want to be sure of seeing me during office hours• There will be a compulsory sign-up sheet for

consultations October 9-10 (no class then)

ECON 492 Week 3 11

Suggestion for this week

• See the instructor to get detailed feedback on your choice of topic, as well as:– Discussing references and models– Discussing sources for data and facts– There is a sign-up sheet if you want to come at a

specific time