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Errors in Causal Explanations

Review of Units of Analysis (UA): Geographic areas

Organizations Groups Individuals

Problems related to link different units of analysis or amismatch of UA between Data one hasand the statement one makes

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Errors in Causal Explanations 2

Two Types of Errors 1. Ecological Fallacy Def. Have data at higher level of UA but

make statement at lower level Examples: Hunger & Ethiopia, Cigar smoking in a state

And ones smoking habit, Muslin & terrorist, Boston &Harvard

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Type 2: Reductionism or

Individualistic Fallacy 2. Reductionism or Individualistic Fallacy Def. Having data at lower level of UA &

make statement at higher level of UA Using simplistic explanation to explain

Macro level events or complicated social problems or phenomenon

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2. Reductionism or Individualistic Fallacy Examples: Serbian assassination of

Archduke in Austria & WWI; Personality ofLeadership & problems in the system(Stalin & Gobachev); aggressive personality

& social development; corruption(individual problems or system wide

problems)

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Sampling: Introduction: Basic

Concepts 1. Introduction. Basic Concepts Basic Concepts:

a. Sample : subset of people or other entitiesselected for a study from a larger population b. Population : the entire set of individuals or

other entities to which stud findings are to be

generalized it usually consists of all cases oneintends to study.

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Sampling: Basic Concepts

c. Sampling elements: individual members of the population whose characteristics are to be

measured. The entire set of sampling elementsconstitutes the population (individuals, all issuesof newspapers /magazines, all movies produced inUS)

D. Sampling unit the units actually selected ineach stage of sampling process (states, counties,cities, communities).

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Basic Concepts

e. Sampling Frame: a list of the elements ofa population from which a sample actuallyis selected an operational def of

population Types of Sampling: two types: probability

sampling & non-probability sampling

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Probability Sampling

Types of Probability Sampling 1. Simple random Demonstration: website:

http://www.randomizer.org/ Click randomizer Sets of number: one set Number per set: 75 Number Range: 9200

http://www.randomizer.org/http://www.randomizer.org/

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Select 500 phone number

How to Generate 500 phone numbers from617-295 (Exchange or prefix)

The possible range of telephone numbers295-0000 to 295-9999.

Select 500 from this range.