Ecological Effects
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Transcript of Ecological Effects
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis
Derrick Anderson
Benjamin Lundeen
Deanna Martinez
Jaime Slye
Earth as an EcosystemEarth as an Ecosystem
All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system – Planet Earth.
One change in one location has the potential to affect the rest of this ecological system
All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system – Planet Earth.
One change in one location has the potential to affect the rest of this ecological system
biocene - community of living organisms biotype - physical and chemical elements
Sizes – micro (a tree log in a stream) to macro (the stream and surrounding landscape) to regional (watershed) to continental to global. The scale chosen is directly related to the specific area of study.
biocene - community of living organisms biotype - physical and chemical elements
Sizes – micro (a tree log in a stream) to macro (the stream and surrounding landscape) to regional (watershed) to continental to global. The scale chosen is directly related to the specific area of study.
Levels of EcosystemsLevels of Ecosystems
How Ecosystems ChangeHow Ecosystems Change
Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer
Seasonal changes – temperature, rainfall, sunlight
Natural changes - hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, tsunami, fires, floods
Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer
Seasonal changes – temperature, rainfall, sunlight
Natural changes - hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, tsunami, fires, floods
How Ecosystems ChangeHow Ecosystems Change
Changes in response to Humans Chemically induced change Physically induced change Increase in number and strength of natural disasters
Fires and flooding due to landscape alterations Hurricanes due to ocean water warming
Sometimes irreversible
Changes in response to Humans Chemically induced change Physically induced change Increase in number and strength of natural disasters
Fires and flooding due to landscape alterations Hurricanes due to ocean water warming
Sometimes irreversible
Earth as an ecosystemEarth as an ecosystem
An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities interacting in such a way that nothing is wasted – if left alone.
Natural and seasonal changes take place, altering the ecosystem in a non-deleterious way
An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities interacting in such a way that nothing is wasted – if left alone.
Natural and seasonal changes take place, altering the ecosystem in a non-deleterious way
ResponsesResponses
Phenological Changes Migration Invasive Species Interactions Extinction Evolvability and the biodiversity crisis Discussion
Phenological Changes Migration Invasive Species Interactions Extinction Evolvability and the biodiversity crisis Discussion
Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes
Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes The relationship
between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena.
The relationship between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena.
• Temperature rise greatest at northern latitudes– Longer growing
season– Increased
photosynthetic activity
Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes
• Calling phenology in frogs– Ithaca– Six species– 100 years– 10-13-day advance
with a 1.0-2.3°C increase
Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes
• Laying dates of first clutches in birds– United Kingdom– 65 species– Advanced by an
average of 8.8 days
Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes
• Aquatic systems– Lake,
Northwestern US– 1962 to 2002– Phytoplankton
bloom advanced by 19 days
– Zooplankton peak more varied
MigrationsMigrations
Observed range ShiftsObserved range Shifts
Studies of range shifts fall into two types Those that infer large-scale range shifts in their
range boundary (regional) Those that infer range shifts from changes in
species composition (community)
Studies of range shifts fall into two types Those that infer large-scale range shifts in their
range boundary (regional) Those that infer range shifts from changes in
species composition (community)
Shifts at Polar LatitudesShifts at Polar Latitudes
Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions From range shifts to community restructuring
and ecosystem function
Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions From range shifts to community restructuring
and ecosystem function
Antarctic and Arctic migrationsAntarctic and Arctic migrations
Antarctic Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeared
from their northern most sites around Antarctica since 1970.These birds are moving southward due to melting at the caps
Arctic Nearly every Arctic ecosystem shows marked shifts Diatom and invertebrate assemblages in Arctic lakes
have shown huge species’ turnover, shifting away from benthic species toward more planktonic and warm-water associated communities.
Antarctic Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeared
from their northern most sites around Antarctica since 1970.These birds are moving southward due to melting at the caps
Arctic Nearly every Arctic ecosystem shows marked shifts Diatom and invertebrate assemblages in Arctic lakes
have shown huge species’ turnover, shifting away from benthic species toward more planktonic and warm-water associated communities.
Arctic ContinuedArctic Continued
Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra areas
This is linked to warming temperatures, increased snow cover, and increased soil microbial activity.
Polar bears have suffered significant population declines at opposite geographic boundaries. They are declining in numbers and mean body weight. Climate change has caused longer ice-free periods, during which the bears starve and are forced to live on reserves because the ice shelf is necessary for feeding
Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra areas
This is linked to warming temperatures, increased snow cover, and increased soil microbial activity.
Polar bears have suffered significant population declines at opposite geographic boundaries. They are declining in numbers and mean body weight. Climate change has caused longer ice-free periods, during which the bears starve and are forced to live on reserves because the ice shelf is necessary for feeding
Northern-Hemisphere SpeciesNorthern-Hemisphere Species
59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions of northern range boundaries
Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) have undergone an expansion of northern boundaries in Europe
Studies indicate that 37 species of resident Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in the U.K. have expanded their northern range between 1960-1995
59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions of northern range boundaries
Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) have undergone an expansion of northern boundaries in Europe
Studies indicate that 37 species of resident Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in the U.K. have expanded their northern range between 1960-1995
Scientists studying Yosemite National Park's found that several animal species have moved to higher altitudes
“An uphill migration possibly spawned by the grinding effects of global warming on one of the nation's most protected wildernesses”.
Scientists studying Yosemite National Park's found that several animal species have moved to higher altitudes
“An uphill migration possibly spawned by the grinding effects of global warming on one of the nation's most protected wildernesses”.
Deserts and Tropical shifts Deserts and Tropical shifts
The Desert Orange Tip butterfly (Colotis evagore), which historically was confined to northern Africa, has established resident populations in Spain while still maintaining the ecological niche
For maturity, this butterfly needs >164 days above 12º C to sustain life
The Desert Orange Tip butterfly (Colotis evagore), which historically was confined to northern Africa, has established resident populations in Spain while still maintaining the ecological niche
For maturity, this butterfly needs >164 days above 12º C to sustain life
The Hummingbird has undergone a dramatic shift in its winter range. Thirty years ago wintered mainly in Mexico.
Now along the Gulf coast of the United States more than a thousand have been sighted in 1998 and it was recorded that they had moved 400 km inland in the past 30 years.
The Hummingbird has undergone a dramatic shift in its winter range. Thirty years ago wintered mainly in Mexico.
Now along the Gulf coast of the United States more than a thousand have been sighted in 1998 and it was recorded that they had moved 400 km inland in the past 30 years.
Elevation ShiftsElevation Shifts
Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 26 mountains have shown higher altitudinal shifts
Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 26 mountains have shown higher altitudinal shifts
Marine Shifts Marine Shifts
Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North America and the U.K.
In these regions warm water fish are becoming over-abundant and cool water fish are shifting poleward, from their southern habitats
Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North America and the U.K.
In these regions warm water fish are becoming over-abundant and cool water fish are shifting poleward, from their southern habitats
Pest and Disease shiftsPest and Disease shifts
Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability to reproduce more and faster
For example: Rocky Mountains Pine beetles have changed there life cycles from two years to just one year.
Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability to reproduce more and faster
For example: Rocky Mountains Pine beetles have changed there life cycles from two years to just one year.
These changes have also effected human disease incidence and transmission
In Sweden, researchers have document marked increases in diseases transmitted by ticks between 22% - 44% in some regions
These changes have also effected human disease incidence and transmission
In Sweden, researchers have document marked increases in diseases transmitted by ticks between 22% - 44% in some regions
Trees and Tree line Shifts Trees and Tree line Shifts
Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward But in some areas, global warming has caused
arid areas like in the desert southwest to have increased rainfall, causing trees to become more abundant.
Ultimately, changing the dynamics and composition of deserts and the species that inhabit them, will this lead to more migration?
Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward But in some areas, global warming has caused
arid areas like in the desert southwest to have increased rainfall, causing trees to become more abundant.
Ultimately, changing the dynamics and composition of deserts and the species that inhabit them, will this lead to more migration?
Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species
Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species Indigenous species are decreasing Invasive species are increasing NISIC Definition:
Non-native Introduction causes economic or
environmental harm or harm to human health
Indigenous species are decreasing Invasive species are increasing NISIC Definition:
Non-native Introduction causes economic or
environmental harm or harm to human health
Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species Interactions with indigenous species
Out-compete Pathogens Pests/parasites
Decrease diversity Loss of productivity and resources 42% of the species on the threatened or endangered
species lists
Interactions with indigenous species Out-compete Pathogens Pests/parasites
Decrease diversity Loss of productivity and resources 42% of the species on the threatened or endangered
species lists
InteractionsInteractions
Interactions Interactions
Species vary in their response to climate change Physiological tolerances Life-history strategies Extinctions / colonizations Dispersal ability
Species vary in their response to climate change Physiological tolerances Life-history strategies Extinctions / colonizations Dispersal ability
Interactions Interactions
Predator-prey Herbivore-host
plant Host-parasitoid
Predator-prey Herbivore-host
plant Host-parasitoid
“For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through
effects on synchrony with that species’ food and habitat resources.”
“For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through
effects on synchrony with that species’ food and habitat resources.”
ExtinctionExtinction
Extinctions Extinctions
Amphibians Documented rapid loss
of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinction of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain restricted species
Amphibians Documented rapid loss
of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinction of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain restricted species
In Costa Rica cloud-forest-dependant amphibians have declined or gone extinct
Central and South America has seen a 67% decline of the Harlequin frogs in the past 20-30 years
In Costa Rica cloud-forest-dependant amphibians have declined or gone extinct
Central and South America has seen a 67% decline of the Harlequin frogs in the past 20-30 years
ExtinctionsExtinctions
Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1ºC above long term summer averages, leading to their bleaching.
El Nino 1997-1998 caused 95% of corals bleaching in the Indian Ocean, resulting in 16% of corals going extinct globally.
Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1ºC above long term summer averages, leading to their bleaching.
El Nino 1997-1998 caused 95% of corals bleaching in the Indian Ocean, resulting in 16% of corals going extinct globally.
These reefs are effected by the CO2 levels in the atmosphere which alters the ocean’s pH.
Reports suggest if this keeps happening by 2050 the oceans maybe be too acidic for the corals to survive in.
These extinctions also indicate a correlation to the increase in endangered species
These reefs are effected by the CO2 levels in the atmosphere which alters the ocean’s pH.
Reports suggest if this keeps happening by 2050 the oceans maybe be too acidic for the corals to survive in.
These extinctions also indicate a correlation to the increase in endangered species
Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis
Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis
EvolvabilityEvolvability
Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i.e. is the biodiversity crisis real?
Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i.e. is the biodiversity crisis real?
The Million Dollar QuestionThe Million Dollar Question Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event?
Well, some say yes and others say no, why? Polls indicate that 70% of biologists believe that
mass extinction was underway and that 20% of all species will go extinct in the next 30 years (1998 Harris Poll, Washington Post).
Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event? Well, some say yes and others say no, why?
Polls indicate that 70% of biologists believe that mass extinction was underway and that 20% of all species will go extinct in the next 30 years (1998 Harris Poll, Washington Post).
Future of Evolutionary ProcessesFuture of Evolutionary Processes
Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: The first concerns human population and its impact on the
ecosystem The second on the consumption of natural resources
With historical data, we are able to project out to 100-years with relative clarity and 1000-years there is too much speculation
So what does it look like?
Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: The first concerns human population and its impact on the
ecosystem The second on the consumption of natural resources
With historical data, we are able to project out to 100-years with relative clarity and 1000-years there is too much speculation
So what does it look like?
The FutureThe Future 100-year prediction
“reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates, dramatic decreases in species diversity, larger habitat fragments, and a large loss in species variability (evolvability).
Why is it reasonably clear? 1000-year prediction
Too speculative to print Indicating what?
100-year prediction “reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates,
dramatic decreases in species diversity, larger habitat fragments, and a large loss in species variability (evolvability).
Why is it reasonably clear? 1000-year prediction
Too speculative to print Indicating what?
“there was serious concern about the ability of biodiversity to bounce back given the current prospects for tropical forests, wetlands, and coral reefs”
Species Geographic RangesSpecies Geographic Ranges Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a
species following a mass extinction event Historically, species have moved to combat ecosystem
changes, rather than adapted, but if the climate continues to change, humans continue to consume and impacts fragment more habitats, what will happen; if anything? Decrease in genetic variability Increase in aggressive commensal species
THE INVASION BEGINS
Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a species following a mass extinction event
Historically, species have moved to combat ecosystem changes, rather than adapted, but if the climate continues to change, humans continue to consume and impacts fragment more habitats, what will happen; if anything? Decrease in genetic variability Increase in aggressive commensal species
THE INVASION BEGINS
Genetic Aspects of Risk AssessmentGenetic Aspects of Risk Assessment Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in
natives. The most affected populations will be recently isolated, small
populations of natives by genetic erosion Genetic variation studies
Allows for surveys of genetic and demographic information, and their interactions, which may indicate the viability of a fragmented population. Before this concept, genetics was a after thought!
Isolated populations also face fragmentation by inbreeding which is caused by human consumption, and results in a human responsibility instead of nature’s responsibility - a Minnesota story
Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in natives.
The most affected populations will be recently isolated, small populations of natives by genetic erosion
Genetic variation studies Allows for surveys of genetic and demographic information, and their
interactions, which may indicate the viability of a fragmented population. Before this concept, genetics was a after thought!
Isolated populations also face fragmentation by inbreeding which is caused by human consumption, and results in a human responsibility instead of nature’s responsibility - a Minnesota story
Genetic AssimilationGenetic Assimilation
Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction
Increases in variability do not necessarily mean that there will be increases in evolvability
Is it better to save a single “generic” taxon or several separate subspecies?
Which is the ‘best’ area for conserving species, small islands or a large body of land.
Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction
Increases in variability do not necessarily mean that there will be increases in evolvability
Is it better to save a single “generic” taxon or several separate subspecies?
Which is the ‘best’ area for conserving species, small islands or a large body of land.
Mutation RatesMutation Rates Mutations will rise, following:
Increases in background mutagen concentrations Increases in UV-B (due to ozone depletion) Increases in nuclear waste storage
Some say, even if mutations do not increase the viability of populations will become increasingly compromised. How?
Maybe we need to change our thinking about these problems!?!
Mutations will rise, following: Increases in background mutagen concentrations Increases in UV-B (due to ozone depletion) Increases in nuclear waste storage
Some say, even if mutations do not increase the viability of populations will become increasingly compromised. How?
Maybe we need to change our thinking about these problems!?!
A Short ReviewA Short Review
With a warming climate: Increases in more weed and pest species, and
disease outbreaks Changes in nutrient cycles due to
anthropogenic effects on essential microbes Where has all the energy gone?
Altered and increased migrations Increases in extinctions
With a warming climate: Increases in more weed and pest species, and
disease outbreaks Changes in nutrient cycles due to
anthropogenic effects on essential microbes Where has all the energy gone?
Altered and increased migrations Increases in extinctions
An open door policy isn’t always a good thing
An open door policy isn’t always a good thing
What the heck is he saying: If we leave our doors open to these changes, then
we will drastically change the evolution of our ecosystem.
Ecosystems will become more easily invaded and disturbed, and the species, genera, family, and phyla that are there will ultimately feel a magnified effect of these changes.
Evolution will still happen, but maybe in the wrong places
What the heck is he saying: If we leave our doors open to these changes, then
we will drastically change the evolution of our ecosystem.
Ecosystems will become more easily invaded and disturbed, and the species, genera, family, and phyla that are there will ultimately feel a magnified effect of these changes.
Evolution will still happen, but maybe in the wrong places
RecommendationsRecommendations Promote efforts to reduce human population
growth and resource use Promote the teaching of ecology and evolutionary
biology at all levels Promote efforts to complete a rapid inventory of
the planet’s biota, complete this in 20 years not 600
Promote research on landscape and seascape levels
Foster research on the predictive use of the fossil record “evolution is a hierarchical process that cannot
be predicted beyond some crude estimates
Promote efforts to reduce human population growth and resource use
Promote the teaching of ecology and evolutionary biology at all levels
Promote efforts to complete a rapid inventory of the planet’s biota, complete this in 20 years not 600
Promote research on landscape and seascape levels
Foster research on the predictive use of the fossil record “evolution is a hierarchical process that cannot
be predicted beyond some crude estimates
Recommendations (Cont.)Recommendations (Cont.) Promote research on the relationship between
genetic variability and population viability and ultimately evolvability
Promote research on genetic control of pests and their vectors to diminish their importance in disturbed ecosystems and improve the human condition
Promote the development of a global system of nature reserves, especially in the tropics, in conjunction with IUCN
Promote political changes in regulations of protected areas
Promote research on the relationship between genetic variability and population viability and ultimately evolvability
Promote research on genetic control of pests and their vectors to diminish their importance in disturbed ecosystems and improve the human condition
Promote the development of a global system of nature reserves, especially in the tropics, in conjunction with IUCN
Promote political changes in regulations of protected areas
The Last RecommendationThe Last Recommendation
Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process of evolution itself. This will allow us to cost-effectively conserve nature
Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process of evolution itself. This will allow us to cost-effectively conserve nature
In Preparation ThoughtsIn Preparation Thoughts Education, education, education; ultimately getting a
strong ‘majority’ of the public and politicians on board with the ideas and problems that surround these issues. Make it clear that changes are happening, and make people aware
that something needs to rapidly be done; send the message that we are not ‘crying wolf’
Increase omissions standards and eco-economical business practices; or punishment
Stop answering the ‘easy’ questions and start working on the ‘hard’ one.
Education, education, education; ultimately getting a strong ‘majority’ of the public and politicians on board with the ideas and problems that surround these issues. Make it clear that changes are happening, and make people aware
that something needs to rapidly be done; send the message that we are not ‘crying wolf’
Increase omissions standards and eco-economical business practices; or punishment
Stop answering the ‘easy’ questions and start working on the ‘hard’ one.
Why this is hardWhy this is hard“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts
80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.” -2001
“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant”
-November 2006
“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.” -2001
“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant”
-November 2006
A Different AnswerA Different Answer“Sooner or later disasters such as an asteroid collision or a nuclear war could wipe us all out, and we need to make the move to other planets"
-Stephen Hawkings
November 30th, 2006, B.B.C.
DiscussionDiscussion Where does ethics fit into this discussion or
should we apply ethical thinking to this situation?
What is the major take home message from these articles?
What are your views about the process of global warming and evolutionary changes as a result of it, and do you think that this is one argument that needs agreement among all entities of science, Business, English, Art, etc??
Where does ethics fit into this discussion or should we apply ethical thinking to this situation?
What is the major take home message from these articles?
What are your views about the process of global warming and evolutionary changes as a result of it, and do you think that this is one argument that needs agreement among all entities of science, Business, English, Art, etc??
Resources UsedResources Used
Woodruff, David S. 2001. Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution. “The Future of Evolution” Colloquium. March 16-20, 2000.
Parmesan, Camille. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. (36) 637-669.
Woodruff, David S. 2001. Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution. “The Future of Evolution” Colloquium. March 16-20, 2000.
Parmesan, Camille. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. (36) 637-669.