Ecobalance giurco

Mineral & Energy Futures

Mineral & Energy Futures:

Implications for Technology and Policy in Producing and Consuming CountriesAssociate Professor Damien Giurco – Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, SydneyDr Daniel Franks – Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, SMI, University of Queensland, AustraliaAssociate Professor Ben McLellan – Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, JapanDr Timothy Prior – Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland

Ecobalance, Japan, 21‐23 November 2012


+Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster

2Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior


+ Illustrative meta‐analysis of mineral & energy futures

How are futures representedin minerals and energy?‐With respect to production,technology, regions?

How do perspectivesdiffer between producingand consuming countries?

Where are the gaps?‐ How does this affect technology and policy?

Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior 33


+Resource Futures: Minerals

4

Time and scale

UpstreamProductionRoadmap

DownstreamSectoralRoadmaps

QuantitativeScenarios

DeliberativeVision

ProductionForecasts

ScenarioPlausibleNarratives

Backcasting(expert)

DemandForecasts

RecyclingRates

ResourceEstimates

Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior


+Resource Futures: Minerals

5

Time and scale




DeliberativeVision

ProductionForecasts


Backcasting(expert)

DemandForecasts

RecyclingRates

ResourceEstimates

MFA LiteratureMFA Literature

Resource Security

Rebased Globalism

Green Trade Alliance



+Resource Futures: Energy

6

Time and scale




DeliberativeVision

ProductionForecasts


Backcasting(expert)

DemandForecasts

RecyclingRates

ResourceEstimates



+Key differences for energy futures over minerals

7

Time and scale




DeliberativeVision

ProductionForecasts


Backcasting(expert)

DemandForecasts

RecyclingForecasts

ResourceEstimates

Longer time horizon for

energy forecasts

More normative futures for energy

More sophisticated demand


More considerations of social impacts of new technology deployment


+ Technology Futures: minerals and energy

8

New technology development occurs for both‒ Energy: Carbon Capture and Storage, concentrating solar

‒ Mining: in‐situ, deep sea, automated trucks and trains

Technological considerations can dominate‒ i.e. how do we get the technology working

‒ Social impacts upon deployment in a community were historically often overlooked in design. Recent works include Ashworth (2011) – energy/CCS, Franks, Cohen, McLellan, Brereton (2010) – minerals



+ Social licence in design



+Regional Futures


Gov Policy or deliberative

Time horizon


+ Lingering tensions: weak or strong sustainability?

11

Mining with less water and energy footprintdoes not deliver sustainability

A missing focus for questions of mining sustainability are ultimate uses and use rates of metals, mining disconnected from dematerialisation literature

Energy more readily connects supply and efficient use via integrated resources planning



+ Lingering tensions: weak or strong sustainability?

12

Mining with less water and energy footprintdoes not deliver sustainability

A missing focus for questions of mining sustainability are ultimate uses and use rates of metals, mining disconnected from dematerialisation literature

Energy more readily connects supply and efficient use via integrated resources planning

Need to explore implications of these approaches for technology and policy from perspectives of producer & consumer nations



+ Comparison of approaches

13

Approach Limitations Implications for –Producers

Implications for –Consumers

Production trends Forecasts are simplistic and assume greater production delivers greater benefits

Limited assessment of environmental and social impacts of future productiontrends

Assessing supply criticality requires separate strategic assessment

Consumption trends Substitutability and disruptive technologies not well considered in roadmaps (~a little)

Little analysis of how changes to production and end use technologies will affect consumption trends

If producers adopt vertical integration and buy up mines, important to understand local social issues and role of future technology

Recycling futures Receives limited attention

Little insight into role recycling from consuming countries will play in offsetting producer demand and impact of WEEE legislation on scrap

Stewardship and ethical sourcing

Material Flow Analysis

Limited policy impact outside EU, Japan

Can highlight current and future sources of material above and below ground



+ Producing nation: Australia

14

Exports by value (iron and coal dominate resource exports)

Mineral dependent nation without National Minerals Strategy

2011 Mining = 57% exports; 8% GDP; 2% workforce

Recently introduced Product Stewardship LegislationGiurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior


+ Consuming nation 1: Japan

15

Significant mining history from past centuries

Now importer of energy (e.g. Japan is biggest destination for Australian coal exports) and minerals

Developing technology to recover value from scrap stocks

Fundamental‐Law‐For Establishing a Sound Material Cycle Society



+ Consuming nation 2: Switzerland

16

Consuming country with interest in extraction and consumption

Major miners Glencore and Xstrata headquartered in Switzerland

Pursues sustainability via extended producer responsibility legislation



+ Illustrative case of rare earth strategies

Australia(Producer)

- Maintain investment in mining sector (whilst taxing)

- long term supply of countries like Japan

- fast permit approval

Ernst & Young, Technology Minerals, the rare earths race is on, April, 2011




Australia(Producer)

China (Producer‐Consumer)




Stable supply of raw materials- export quotas

and taxes- permit limits- increasing

environmental laws



18



Australia(Producer)


Japan (Consumer)






environmental laws

Secure stable supply- funding global

exploration- loans- stockpiling- recycling- information

gathering



19



Australia(Producer)


Japan (Consumer) EU/Switzerland(Consumer)






environmental laws

Secure stable supply- funding global

exploration- loans- stockpiling- recycling- information

gathering

Limit impact ofshortages- open markets

trade policy- increase

recycling- studying

critical minerals



20


+Concluding summary

Illustrative analysis reveals underlying areas of importance and availability of information collected‐ tension between short and longer term‐ economic assessments dominate (more = better)‐ little recognition of influence of social/env pressures

Further research on coherence of strategies from producers and consumers is required. Recycling needs further attention in producing countries.

New approaches needed for integrated analyses across commodities and stakeholder perspectives as part of ethical and responsible production chains.



+Contact

Damien GiurcoResearch DirectorInstitute for Sustainable Futures, UTSLevel 11, 235 Jones St Ultimo, NSW 2007Tel: +61 2 9514 [email protected]

+Publications

+Acknowledgement

Mineral Futures Collaboration Clusterwww.csiro.au/partnerships/mineral‐futures‐collaboration‐cluster.html

Resource Futureswww.resourcefutures.net.auwww.isf.uts.edu.au


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