ECN 6002 Development Finance Personnel Module …/file/ECN6002...ECN 6002 Development Finance...

Department of Economics ECN 6002 1

ECN 6002 Development Finance Personnel Module leader Paul Mosley Contact details Room 419, 9 Mappin St;(0114-2223397, internal extension

23397, [email protected] Office hours Weds 10-12, Thurs 11-12 and 3-4

Module Aims and Objectives

We aim to teach the skills necessary to analyse the main sources of financing for

development and the manner in which they may optimally contribute to the

development process. On completion of the course you should have:

The ability to understand the structure of international capital flows and domestic sources of financing.

The ability to analyse the effect of national and international policy measures on these capital flows, and their ability to overcome ‘market failure’ in the capital market, at every level from global capital markets to the village economy.

The course is split into four parts:

(i) the global financial system and proposals for its reform in a context of chronic vulnerability to crisis (weeks 1 - 3);

(ii) the finance of the domestic private sector in developing and ‘emerging’ countries (weeks 4-6);

(iii) the finance of the domestic public sector in developing and transitional countries (weeks 7 and 8)

(iv) interconnections between the above; a return to global themes (weeks 9 and 10)

Timetable

Lectures: Tuesday at 9 (AT LT 06)and Thursday at 12(SG/Mappin LT 06)

Tutorials: will be arranged on demand after week 5 (time and venue to be

determined).

This is a 20 credit module and therefore it is expected it will require 200 study hours

per student (including formal teaching hours). As a rough guideline this means you

should expect to devote just over 13 hours of study time per week to this module

during a 15 week semester.


Assessment

One two-hour examination(May/June);plus

One long essay (target length 3000 words) containing elements of research, not just literature review. This essay should be drafted and ‘reworked’ after discussion in a workshop; for essay topics and associated reading please see page 23 below. Coursework must always be submitted in hard copy to the Enquiry Office, and by no later than 3.00pm on the day of the deadline. Unauthorised late submissions will incur a penalty of 5% of the mark per day for 5 working days and after that a mark of zero. A Turnitin submission should be made within 5 working days of the paper copy deadline. Failure to submit an assessment to Turnitin by this date will lead to a zero mark for the assessment. The pass mark for this module is 50% overall and a minimum mark for every component of 40%. Website This course outline and all announcements related to the course will be posted on the MOLE website.

Course Outline and Reading

There is no textbook for the course. You will however find useful linking material in:

Theme 1: The global financial system

1. B. Eichengreen, Towards a new international financial architecture: a practical post-Asia agenda, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 1999.

2. Complete issue of Journal of Economic Perspectives for fall (autumn) 1999, essays by Mishkin, Rogoff, Caprio, Edwards

3. April 1998 issue of IMF World Economic Outlook on crisis forecasting 4. A.B. Atkinson(ed) New sources of development finance, Oxford University

Press, 2005. 5. G. Ranis, J. Vreeland and S. Kosack(eds) (2005) Globalisation and the national state: the impact of the IMF and World Bank, London: Routledge.

6. S. Spratt, Development Finance, Routledge, 2009.

Also (possibly more useful than any of the above) most issues of Princeton

Papers in International Finance and IMF Staff Papers.


Theme 2: The finance of the private sector in developing countries

7. (historically) World Bank, World Development Report 1989 on financial systems and development.

8. World Bank, Global Development Finance, annual publication.

Theme 3: The finance of the public sector in developing countries

9. E. Ahmad and N. Stern, The theory and practice of tax reform for developing countries, Cambridge U.P. 1993.

Week-by-week and session-by-session outlines

Part 1 The global financial system and proposals for its reform

Weeks 1 -3 (7-24 Feb) The global financial system and financial crisis

Session 1 : 7 February. Introduction to the international financial architecture;

the current international financial situation

8. World Bank, Global Development Finance, annual publication.

9.James Foreman-Peck, A History of the World Economy: international economic

relations since 1850, Wheatsheaf, 1983.

10.World Bank, World Development Report 1991.

11. J. Sachs and A. Warner, ‘Economic reform and the process of global integration’,

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1(1995), 1-109.

12. Latest issues of IMF World Financial Outlook and The Economist.


13. D. Rodrik, (1999) The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making

Openness Work (Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, Policy Essay 24)

14. D. Vines and C. Gilbert eds. (2004) The IMF and its critics.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 15. G. Ranis, J. Vreeland and S. Kosack(eds) (2005) Globalisation and the national state: the impact of the IMF and World Bank, London: Routledge.

Session 2 : 9 February.

International financial crises: the East Asian crisis, the current ‘credit crunch’ and their aftermath

(1) B. Eichengreen, Towards a new international financial architecture: a practical post-Asia

agenda, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 1999.

(2) Complete issue of Journal of Economic Perspectives for fall (autumn) 1999, essays by

Mishkin, Rogoff, Caprio, Edwards

14. M. Obstfeld, ‘Risk-taking, global diversification and growth’, American Economic Review,

vol. 84(1994),pp. 1310-1329.

15. M. Obstfeld, ‘Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features’, European Economic

Review, vol. 40, pp. 1037-1047.

16. R. Dornbusch and others (1995) ‘Currency crises and collapses’ Brookings Papers on

Economic Activity 2.

17. P. Kenen (ed) From Halifax to Lyons; What has been done about crisis management?

Princeton Essay in International Finance 200.

18.A. Haldane, G. Irwin and V. Saporta, ‘Bail out or work out?’ Theoretical considerations’ Economic Journal, vol 114(March) C130-C148.


18a. World Economy and Finance: findings from the ESRC World Economy and

Finance Programme, available at www.worldeconomyandfinance.org.

18b. IMF, The Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries,

available at www.imf.org.

18c. Action Aid, Where does it hurt? The impact of the financial crisis on developing

countries, London. Action Aid.

18d. S. Andrianova, P. Demetriades and A. Shortland, ‘Government ownership of

banks, institutions and financial development’, Journal of Development Economics

vol. 85 (2008), 218-252.

Session 3 : 14 February. Anti-crisis instruments:the IMF facilities,

capital controls, Tobin taxes, default etc.

(1) B. Eichengreen, Towards a new international financial architecture: a practical

post-Asia agenda, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 1999.

(2) Complete issue of Journal of Economic Perspectives for fall (autumn) 1999,

essays by Mishkin, Rogoff, Caprio, Edwards

(4)A.B. Atkinson(ed) New sources of development finance, Oxford University Press,

2005.

19. H. Edison and C. Reinhart, ‘Stopping hot money’, Journal of Development

Economics, vol. 66, pp. 533-553.

20. S. Edwards, ‘How effective are capital controls?’, Journal of Economic

Perspectives, vol. 13, pp. 65-84.

21. E. Kaplan and D. Rodrik, ‘Did Malaysian capital controls work?’, unpublished

http://www.worldeconomyandfinance.org/

http://www.imf.org/


paper, Harvard University, 2000.

22. J. Duasa and P.Mosley, ‘Capital controls re-examined: the case for ‘smart’

controls’, The World Economy, vol. 38(2006), 1203-1226.

23. B. Eichengreen, J. Tobin and C. Wyplosz(1995) ‘Two cases for sand in the

wheels of international finance’, Economic Journal, vol. 105, pp. 162-172.

24. P. Spahn, evidence to House of Commons International Development

Committee on the Tobin Tax, pages 70-82 in Financing for Development: finding the

money to eliminate world poverty (fifth report of session 2001-02), volume 2.

25. P. Collier and J.W. Gunning, ‘The IMF’s role in structural adjustment’, Economic

Journal, vol. 109(November 1999), F634-F651.

26. P.Mosley, ‘The IMF after the Asian crisis’ The World Economy, 24:5 (may 2001),

597-628.


Sessions 4-6 : 16, 21 and 23 Feb. Recent developing-country crises

(Indonesia, Russia, Argentina, Bolivia etc) in relation to the current

global crisis. Political economy of adjustment and ‘pro-poor adjustment’.

The political business cycle.

27. F. Bourguignon and C. Morrisson, Growth and equity in developing countries,

Paris: OECD Development Centre.

28. P. Mosley, ‘The political poverty trap: Bolivia 1999-2007’, unpublished paper,

University of Sheffield.

29. N. Fiess, B. Chiripanhura and P. Mosley ‘The political economy of riot-type

violence in developing countries’, unpublished paper presented at Royal

Economic Society Conference, Warwick, 2008.

30..P. Mosley, B. Chiripanhura, J. Grugel and B. Thirkell-White, ‘Why adopt pro-poor

policies’, unpublished paper, 2008.

31. W. Nordhaus(1975) ‘The political business cycle’, Review of Economic Studies,

vol. 42, pp. 169-190.

32. S. Block(2002) ‘Political business cycles, democratisation and economic reform:

the case of Africa’, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 67, pp. 205-228.

33. D. Treisman and Vladimir Gimpelson (2001) ‘ Political business cycles and

Russian elections, or the Manipulations of ‘Chudar’, British Journal of Political

Science, vol. 31, pp. 225-246.

34. P. Mosley, ‘The ‘political business cycle’ revisited’, unpublished paper, 2009.

Some essays in Ranis et al. (15) and Vines and Gilbert(14) are also useful.


Part 2. Finance for the private sector

Weeks 4 and 5 (27 Feb – 2 March) Finance and the macro-economy

in LDCs

Session 7 : 28 Feb. Role of the financial sector in development

35. V. FitzGerald, Macroeconomics of development finance, Macmillan, 1993.

36. P. Arestis and P. Demetriades, ‘Financial development and economic growth:

assessing the evidence’, Economic Journal, vol. 107(1997), 783-799.

37. R. King and R.Levine, ‘Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right’,

Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 108(1993), 717-737.

Session 8 : 1 March. Savings and investment in developing countries

38. K. Schmidt-Hebbel and S. Webb, ‘Public policy and private saving’, chapter 8 in

V.Corbo, S. Fischer and S. Webb(eds) Adjustment lending revisited: policies to

restore growth, Washington DC: World Bank, 1992.

39. K. Schmidt-Hebbel, L. Serven and A. Solimano, ‘Savings and investment:

paradigms, puzzles, policies’, World Bank Research Observer, vol. 11(February), 87-

117.

40. M. Ogaki, J. Ostry and C. Reinhart, ‘Saving behaviour in low- and middle-income

developing countries’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 43(March 1996), 38-72.


41. A. Giovannini, ‘The interest-elasticity of savings in developing countries: the

existing evidence’, World Development, vol. 11(1983), 601-607.

42. J. Greene and D. Villanueva, ‘Private investment in developing countries: an

empirical analysis’, IMF Staff Papers, vol 38(1991), 33-58.

43. D. Rodrik, ‘How should structural adjustment programmes be designed?’

World Development, vol. 18(1990), 933-947.

Week 5 (5-9 March) Rights and wrongs of financial

liberalisation

Session 9: 6 March. Financial liberalisation: theory and overview

44. T Barnebeck Andersen and F. Tarp, ‘Financial liberalisation, financial

development and economic growth in LDCs’, unpublished paper, University of

Copenhagen, March 2002, now published Journal of International Development.

45. H. Gibson and E. Tsakolotos, ‘The scope and limits of financial liberalisation in

developing countries: a critical survey’, Journal of Development Studies, vol.

30(1994), 562-578.

46. World Bank, World Development Report 1989, chapters 2, 4 and 5.


47. C. Diaz-Alejandro, ‘Goodbye financial repression, hello financial crash’, Journal

of Development Economics, vol. 19(1985), 1-24.

48.R. MacKinnon, The order of financial liberalisation, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins

University Press.

49. M.J. Fry, ‘In favour of financial liberalisation’, Economic Journal, vol. 107(May

1997), 754-771.

50. J. Stiglitz, ‘More instruments and broader goals: moving towards the post-

Washington consensus’, United Nations University: WIDER Annual Lectures 2.

Session 10 : 8 March. The experience of financial liberalisation in developing

countries: regional and country case studies

51. P. Demetriades and K. Luintel(1996) ‘Financial development, economic growth

and banking sector controls: evidence from India’, Economic Journal, vol 106(1996),

359-374.

52. E. Aryeetey, L. Senbet and C. Udry( ) ‘Financial liberalisation and financial

markets in sub-saharan Africa: a synthesis’, Journal of African Economies, vol. 6, pp.

1-28.

53. S. Griffith-Jones and Z. Drabek(eds) Financial sector reform in central and

eastern Europe, London: Macmillan, 1996?

54. World Bank, World development report 1996 (Transition), chapter 6.

55. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition report 1998,

Financial Sector in Transition.


Week 6 (12-16 March) Financial product diversification; regulation and

deregulation

Session 11 : 13 March. Corporate finance: non-banks, insurance, bond

markets

56. A. Demirguc-Kunt and R. Levine, ‘Stock markets, corporate finance and

economic growth: an overview’, World Bank Economic Review, vol. 10, 223-240.

57. A. Singh, ‘Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development’,

Economic Journal, vol 107(May 1997), 771-783.

58.R. Feldman and A. Kumar, ‘Emerging equity markets: growth, benefits and policy

concerns’, World Bank Research Observer, vol. 7, pp. 79-94.

59. R. Myers, ‘Incomplete markets and commodity-linked finance in developing

countries’, World Bank Research Observer, vol. 7, pp. 79-94.


Session 12 : 15 March. Financial regulation and deregulation

60. World Bank, World Development Report 1989, chapter 6.

61. V. Polizatto, ‘Prudential regulation and supervision’, in D. Vittas, ed. Financial

regulation and supervision: changing the rules of the game, Washington DC: World

Bank.

62. D. Vittas, ‘The impact of regulation on financial intermediation’, in D. Vittas, ed.

Financial regulation: changing the rules of the game, Washington DC: World Bank.

63. M. Ncube and L. Senbet, ‘Perspectives on financial regulation and liberalisation

in Africa under incentive problems and asymmetric information’, Journal of African

Economies, vol. 6, pp. 29-88.

Week 7 (19-23 March) Microfinance

Session 13: 20 March. The problem of failure at the bottom end of the capital

market. The role of moral hazard and adverse selection

64. G. Akerlof, ‘The market for ‘lemons’ : Quality uncertainty and the market

mechanism’, Quarterly Journal of Economics vol 84(August 1970), 488-500.

65. J. Stiglitz and A. Weiss, ‘Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information’,


American Economic Review, vol. 71(1981), 393-410.

66. M. Rothschild and J. Stiglitz, ‘Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an

essay on the economics of imperfect information’, Quarterly Journal of Economics,

vol. 86(1976), 629-649.

67. D. Henderson and F. Khambata, ‘Financing small-scale industry and agriculture

in developing countries: the merits and limitations of ‘commercial’ policies’, Economic

Development and Cultural Change, vol. 33(1985), 349-372.

68. D. Hulme and P. Mosley, Finance against Poverty, London; Routledge 1996, vol.

1, chapters 1 and 2.

69. J. Morduch, ‘The microfinance promise’, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.

37(Dec 1999), 1569-1615.

70. G. Tedeschi (2006), ‘Here today, gone tomorrow: can dynamic incentives

make microfinance more flexible?’, Journal of Development Economics,

vol. 80, pp. 84-105.


Session 14: 22 March.Microfinance in practice. The poverty issue

64. P.Mosley and D. Hulme, ‘Microenterprise finance; is there a conflict between

growth and poverty alleviation? World Development, vol 26 (1998), pp. 783-790.

65, P. Mosley, ‘Microfinance and poverty in Bolivia’, Journal of Development Studies,

vol. 37 (April 2001), pp. 101-132.

66. J. P. Krahnen and R.H. Schmidt, Development finance as institution-building: a

new approach to poverty-oriented banking, Westview Press, 1995.

67. F. Lund and S. Srinivas, Learning from experience a gendered approach to

social protection for workers in the informal economy, Geneva:ILO, 2000.

68. J. Sebstad and M. Cohen, Microfinance, risk management and poverty,

Washington DC: USAID, 2001.

69. S. Khandker, ‘Fighting poverty with microcredit: experience in Bangladesh’,

Dhaka: University Press, 1998.


70. E. Rhyne, Mainstreaming microfinance: how microfinance was born, grew, and

came of age in Bolivia, Kumarian Press, 2001.

Microfinance in practice. Linkage with the commercial sector, financial

product diversification

71. P.Montagnon, Credit where credit is due; bringing microfinance into the

mainstream, London; Centre for Studies in Financial Innovation., 1998

72. Complete issue of Small Enterprise Development, March 2001, on

microinsurance (essays by Brown, McCord, Mosley, Roth, Wright)

73. R. Patten, J. Rosengard and D. Johnston, ‘Microfinance success amidst

macroeconomic failure: the experience of Bank Rakyat Indonesia during the East

Asian crisis’, World Development, vol. 29(2001), 1057-1069.

74. Special issue of Journal of International Development, April 1996 (in particular

essays by Robinson and Montgomery).

74a. M. Bateman, Why Microfinance isn’t working, Zed Press, 2011.


Part 3 Finance for the private sector

Weeks 8 and 9 (26 March – 20 April): principles and practice of taxation in

developing countries

Session 15, 27 March:General principles of taxation in developing countries;

tax reform

75. D. Newbery and N. Stern, The theory of taxation for developing countries,

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

76. C. Heady, ‘Optimal taxation as a guide to tax policy’, Fiscal Studies, vol. 14, Feb.

1993.

77. A. Alesina and R. Perotti, ‘The political economy of budget deficits’, IMF Staff

Papers, vol. 14 no. 1, Feb.1993.

78. E. Ahmad and N. Stern, The theory and practice of tax reform in developing

countries, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

79. C. Bliss, ‘The design of fiscal reforms in constrained developing countries’,

Economic Journal, vol. 102(July 1992), 940-952.


80. S. and W. Wilford, ‘On revenue peformance and revenue income stability in the

third world’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 26(1978), 505-523.

81. M. Gersovitz and C. Paxson, ‘The revenues and expenditures of African

governments: modalities and consequences’, Journal of African Economies, vol 5

(June 1996)

82. N. Osoro, ‘Revenue productivity of the tax system in Tanzania 1979-1989’,

Journal of African Economies, vol. 1 (November 1992)

83. O. Morrissey, ‘Political commitment, institutional capacity and tax reform in

Tanzania’, World Development, vol. 23(1995), 637-651.

Session 16 29 March: taxes on foreign trade and trade policy reform

(includes export taxes, commodity price stabilisation etc.) Sales taxes and the

introduction of VAT

84. K. Nashashibi and S. Bazzoni, ‘Exchange rate strategies and fiscal performance

in sub-saharan Africa’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 41 (March 1995), 76-123.


85. G. A. Mackenzie, ‘Estimating the base of VAT in less developed countries; the

problem of exemptions’, Public Finance, vol. 47(1992), 257-270.

86. S.M. Hossain, ‘The equity impact of VAT in Bangladesh’, IMF Staff Papers,

vol.42(June 1995), 411-431.

Taxes on income and capital

87 J. A. Kay, ‘Tax policy: a survey’, Economic Journal, vol. 100(March 1990), 18-75.

88. V. Tanzi, The Individual Income Tax and Economic Growth, Baltimore: Johns

Hopkins University Press.

89. Jack M. Mintz and J. Seade, ‘Cash flow or income? The choice of base for

company taxation’, World Bank Research Observer, July 1991, pp. 177-190.

90. R. Griffin, ‘A note on the taxation of capital income in the Czech republic and

Poland’, Fiscal Studies, vol. 17(August 1996), 91-103.


91. C. Heady, N. Rajah and S. Smith, ‘Tax reform and economic transition in the

Czech Republic’, Fiscal Studies, vol. 15 (February 1994), 64-81.

92. D.G. Hartman, ‘Tax policy and foreign direct investment’, Journal of Public

Economics, vol. 26(February 1985), 107-121.

93. P. Shome and C. Schutte, ‘Cash-flow tax’, IMF Staff Papers,vol.40 (September

1996), 638-662.

Session 17 17 April. New ideas: user charges, environmental taxes

94. World Bank, World Development Report 1992, chapters 3 and 4.

95. G. Eskeland and E. Jimenez, ‘Choosing policy instruments for pollution control: a

review’, PRE working paper 624, World Bank Country Economics Department,

Washington DC.

96. J. Whalley and R. Wigle, ‘The international incidence of carbon taxes’, in R.

Dornbusch and J. Poterba, eds. Global warming: economic policy responses,

Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

97. L. Gilson, S. Russell and K. Buse, ‘The political economy of user fees with

targeting; developing equitable health financing policy’, Journal of International

Development, vol. 7(May 1995), 369-403.


See also the book by Atkinson ed. (4)

Part 4 (lectures 18-20) 19-27 April. Effectiveness of international finance. Links

between international financial architecture and domestic finance. Course

summary and revision

Atkinson et al. (4)

NGOs

(98) D. Hulme and M. Edwards, Making a difference: NGOs and development,

London: Earthscan.

(99) D. Hulme and M. Edwards, Beyond the magic bullet, London: Earthscan, 1996.

(100) J. Townsend, G. Porter and E. Mawdsley, ‘The role of the transnational

community of non-government organisations: governance or poverty reduction?’,

Journal of International Development, vol. 14 (Aug 2002) 829-841.

(101) S. Lister, ‘The consultation practice of Northern NGOs: a study of British

organisations in Guatemala’, Journal of International Development, vol. 13:7 (Oct

2001), 1071-1083.

Aid and its effectiveness

(102) World Bank, Assessing Aid, Oxford University Press, 1998.

(103) (104) DFID White Papers:

Eliminating World Poverty, November 1997

Making Globalisation Work for the Poor, December 2000

(my commentary on these White Papers is in New Political Economy, vol. 6:3,

October 2001)


(105) P. Mosley, J. Hudson and S. Horrell, ‘Aid, the public sector and the market in

less developed countries’, Economic Journal, vol. 97(1987), 616-642.

(106) C. Burnside and D. Dollar, ‘Aid, policies and growth’, American Economic

Review, vol. 90 (Sept 2000), 847-869.

(107) H. Hansen and F. Tarp, ‘Aid and growth regressions’, Journal of Development

Economics, vol. 64 (September 2001), 547-570.

(108) J. Leandro and others, ‘Towards a more effective conditionality: an operational

framework’, World Development, vol. 27(1999), 285-299.

(109) H. White, ‘Will the new aid agenda help promote poverty reduction?’, Journal

of International Development, vol. 13:7 (October 2001), 1057-1071.

(110) P. Mosley, J. Hudson, Aid, poverty reduction and the ‘new conditionality’,

Economic Journal, vol. 114(June 2004), 217-244.

Additional revision sessions will be arranged if required in the week of 10-13 May.


Essay options

Please write an essay on one of the following topics, in not more than 3000-

4000 words (say 10-14 pages) and hand in by Monday 14 May 2012

1. How did the global crisis of 2008-2009 arise, and what were its effects on developing countries, short term and long term?

2. With reference to empirical evidence from one or more countries, make the

case for or against controls or taxes on capital flows as an instrument for protecting the national economy and the stability of the global financial system.

3. Can, and should, the international financial system revert back toward the

original blueprint set out at Bretton Woods in 1945?

4. What is the ‘political business cycle?’. As developing countries democratise, will the business cycle in those countries become more intense?

5. Under what circumstances is macro-economic adjustment likely to produce social conflict? How can such conflict be avoided?

6. In what way do the macroeconomies of developing countries depart from the standard assumptions of textbook macroeconomics?

7. What are the arguments against complete financial liberalisation in a developing country?

8. How can equity markets be developed so as to optimise the contribution made by the financial sector to the development process?

8. Either (a) In the design of microfinance institutions, how can profitability be

reconciled with poverty impact?

Or (b) What form of microfinance institution is best for improving the living

standards of women in developing countries?


9.Why are the economies of developing countries excessively dependent on

taxes on foreign trade? How can this dependence be mitigated?

10. Does overseas aid menace the capacity of national states to build up a

rational tax structure? How can this problem be overcome?

11. If global financial governance is a public good, what form should the design of

that public good take?

12. How can overseas aid be reformed so as better to fit in with the

international financial architecture?

13. Write on a question of your own choosing. You must agree this option with me

beforehand.

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