ECMWF involvement in theDRR/SEE programme

• Conclusion of co-operation agreements with: The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia☺ Bosnia & Herzegovina

(agreed by the ECMWF Council, signature outstanding)? Albania• Provision of Metview software to: Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Montenegro the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Sarajevo March 2011

ECMWFan independent intergovernmental organisation

established in 1975

with

18 Member States16 Co-operating States

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Benefits of becoming aCo-operating State

• Full access to – ECMWF real-time products– archive data– software tools

• RMDCN link• Commercial use of ECMWF products• User support• Access to ECMWF Web Server• Access to ECMWF training facilities, user meetings

Sarajevo March 2011

Benefits of becoming aCo-operating State (cont)

• Visit to and from ECMWF• Member of the Advisory Committee for Co-operating States

(ACCS)• Attend Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), Advisory

Committee for Data Policy (ACDP) • Recruitment of staff• Participation to Optional projects (BC LAM)

Sarajevo March 2011

MARS

Custom DB

ODB

Archives Local files

+

What is Metview?

• Data:– Access – Examine– Manipulate– Plot / Overlay

• Can be run interactively or in batch• Can be easily installed and runs self-contained standalone

– From laptops to large servers– No special data servers required

Sarajevo March 2011

What can Metview visualise?

• High quality contouring• Automatic and

user specified titles• Automatic legends • WMO observation plotting• Visualisation of feedback data• Display of satellite data • Supports geographical and

Cartesian projections• Allows users to control layout

of plots on pages

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ECMWF: a component of the EMI

Information Systems and services – Analyses, forecasts and

support to decision making climate monitoring

– Archiving and reanalysis – Methods, tools and know-how– Web, push and pull services.

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National Met Services

EUMETSAT(satellites)

ECMWF

EUMETNET/EUCOS(others)

Shared and coordinated observation systems and related services

EUMETNET

Users/Customers/Decision-makersUsers/Customers/Decision-makers

Summary of the strategy for ECMWF 2006 – 2015

Principal goal

• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global,medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort onearly warnings of severe weather events

Complementary goals

• To improve the quality and scope of monthly andseasonal-to-inter-annual forecasts

• To deliver real-time analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition• To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the

Earth-system• To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System

Sarajevo March 2011

Global observations

Users National weather services

Sarajevo March 2011

Global weather forecasts

Severe Weather

• ECMWF forecasts are used by its Member States and Co-operating States to provide early warnings of severe weather

• ECMWF has developed a number of products to assist our users in this work

• Member States and Co-operating States have also developed their own applications for specific warnings using ECMWF forecasts as input

• ECMWF supports WMO members by providing products for severe weather forecasting, in particular ECMWF contributes to the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects

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Sarajevo March 2011

Extreme forecast index (EFI)• Used as an “alarm bell” to alert forecasters to possible

extreme events• Forecasters can then look in more detail

Sarajevo March 2011

valid for 24hours from Wednesday 01 July 2009 at 00 UTC to Thursday 02 July 2009 at 00 UTCand EFI values for Total precipitation,maximum 10m wind gust and mean 2m temperature (all 24h)1000 hPa Z ensemble mean ( Wednesday 01 July 2009 at 12 UTC)Anomalous weather predicted by EPS: Sunday 28 June 2009 at 00 UTC

60°E40°E20°E20°W40°W60°W

20°E20°W

70°N

60°N

50°N

40°N

60°E

40°E

40°W

60°W

88

8

8

8

8

16

16

16

16

16

H

H

H

H

H

HH

H

H

HL

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

L

60°E40°E20°E20°W40°W60°W

20°E20°W

70°N

60°N

50°N

40°N

60°E

40°E

40°W

60°W

extreme cold cold w arm extreme w arm w ind extreme w ind precip extreme precip

Central Europe heat wave July 2007

Sarajevo March 2011

Daily 2m maximum temperature anomalies summer 2007

Extreme temperatures 15-20 July, over 40°C in many placesForest fires, loss of crops, fatalities from heat stress Strong signal in 15 day forecast

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

EFI, 2m maximum temperature, Forecast t+240 VT: 20070720

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.30.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0°

0°

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E

EFI, 2m maximum temperature, Forecast t+360 VT: 20070720

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.30.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Extreme forecast index (EFI)

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• Used as an “alarm bell” to alert forecasters to possible extreme events

• Forecasters can then look in more detail

15-day and 10-day EFI for 20 July 2007

Central and Eastern European floods – July 2008

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Extreme forecast index for120-hour total precipitation(EPS from 21 July 2008, valid for period 22–27 July)

Several days of heavy rainfall over south-east Europe on23–28 July 2008

Flooding in parts of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary

Over 35,000 people evacuated; 36 people reported killed

Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) gives good indication of area of exceptional precipitation. Higher values show stronger signal for extreme event

Storm Xynthia – 28 February 2010

47 casualties in FranceEFI gave a clear early warning

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Day 2-3

Day 3-4

Monthly forecastVerification 13–19 December 2010

Sarajevo March 2011

Sarajevo March 2011