Crise de l’eau et crise alimentaire : pouvons-nous les surmonter ?

Alain VidalCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food

AgroParisTech, semaine ATHENSUV Gérer l’eau du local au global

20 novembre 2008

Content

What is causing the world’s food crisis?Do we also have a water crisis? How is it related to the food crisis?Can we overcome the crisis?

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Food crisis: is it new?

Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses

Remember! Every 5 seconds, one child younger than 10 dies of hunger

Food crisis: the hunger countdown?

3 billion do not eat their fill2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty

Reducing rural poverty Increase farmers income and resilience And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor

Water, food and GDP

Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)…

… and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia)

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Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth

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-60

-40

-20

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year

%

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rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Annual growth rate

(%)

ag grow th GDP grow th

What is causing the world food crisis?

Long-term trends… Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate

change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply

shocks

…plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately

affected the poor Uncertainties due to economic instability

Rapid variations in world food prices

What’s next?

Food consumption changes in emerging countries

Less grain, more meat and dairy products

More meat in China, more milk in India

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

me

at

co

ns

um

pti

on

(kg

/ca

p/y

r) Meat China

India

0

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40

60

80

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10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

milk

co

ns

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pti

on

(kg

/ca

p/y

r)

Milk

China

India USA

USA

Food & feed demand will double The main driver

How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand? While world population will increase by 50%... … changes in diets will result in almost doubling

the food demand!

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Long-term effect of climate change

Decrease of main crops production by 2050 ! Maize 16% Rice 21% Wheat 42%

Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100

Slow growing supply vs. low stocks

Cereal stocks from 4 months down to

2.5 months of world consumption

equivalent to 1 year of China consumption (40% being owned by China)

Biofuels: a significant short-term effect

Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%)

“A short-term threat for food security, a long-term opportunity for agricultural and rural development” (FAO State of Food and Agriculture, 2008)

What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis?

Food commodities is another casino where people gamble In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned

towards food commodities Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in

2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO)

Consequences of the economic and financial crisis Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in

lower food prices – but too low for farmers Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt,

resulting in decreased investment in agriculture

What does the future of world food prices look like?

Do we also have a water crisis?

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The driving forces?

Growing populationDietary changeUrbanizationBiofuel productionNeed for environmental water Climate change

… similar to the food crisis drivers!

The Water Crisis in context

Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day

2-5L Daily

20-500L Daily

500-3000LPer Kg

Water consumption is increasing

Dietary water demand grows with GDP

Lundqvist 2008

GDP US$/cap/yr

La demande continue à augmenter

Eau, territoire et biocarburants d’ici 2030

irrigated

Million ha

Harvested area

irrigated

rain fed

rain fed

biofuels2003

2030

400 800 1200 1600

2000 4000 6000 8000

2003

2030

biofuelsirrigation

irrigation

directly from rain

directly from rain

Crop water consumption

km3

The water productivity challenge

Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels?

No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use

…Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues

A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m3 of water, we would be safe

Change our thinking about water and agriculture

Far

from

Certainty

Ag

reem

en

t

Close to Far from

Clo

se to Simple

Plan, control

Zone of Complexity

Technically Complicated Experiment, coordinate expertise

SociallyComplicated Build relationships, create common ground

Source: Patton, 2007

• Formulaic solutions have limited applicability

• Past success is no guarantee of future success

• Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key

• Uncertainty of outcome remains

Increase the productivity of water to potential

Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability Water is often a constraint in productivityIntegration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water

Potential = 1-2 kg/m3

Water productivity and resource management

Before After

Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yrRice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year

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Increasing water productivity requires external factors

Growth of agricultural GDP is 4 times more effective to increase people's income (WDR 2007), but…

…poverty also influences the capacity to increase crop productivity

Changer notre mode de pensée sur l’eau et l’agriculture ?

Source: FAO

Répondre aux besoins spécifiques des différentes catégories de producteurs

The resilience challenge

Not only should water productivity be increased…

…but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie

become more resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable)

Green water Blue water

Prod

uctiv

ity

MUS

MUS resilience zone

Single uses

unstable zone

Resilience of dry rainfed systems

Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water

Ways to improve access to green water In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase

the rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching Micro catchment or runoff farming and supplementary ‐

irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fields

Household crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year

Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram

Highly productive but contested waterscape Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles

to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity

Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega projects hangs ‐over future of wetlands

But household income US$1100/y

“paa boong paa thaam”

Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems

Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural waterExperience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water

livestock

door

Total area 2 ha ; ponds, paddy fields; integrated farm; and forest

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Paddy field

Trees & fruits

Trees & fruits

12x24x5 m

Tre

es &

frui

ts Trees & fruits

Farm

Forest

Frog farm

Vegetables

Nursery

From domestic water to multiple-use

Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility Especially for the poor and for women

generates ‘more MDG per drop’ Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived

income ranging from US$40 to 300/year Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based

production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses

Green water Blue water

Prod

uctiv

ity

Single uses

unstable zone

Multiple use/sources resilience

Rainfed humid

Rainfed dry

How to address the resilience challenge?

Multiple water uses, techniques and

sources, together with resulting community organization do increase resilience

Neglecting the natural and immemorial continuity between water natural and man-made systems creates unaffordable disruptive changes

Disruptive

Change

Thank you

Alain Vidal, CPWF Directora.vidal@cgiar.org

www.waterandfood.org www.slideshare.com/CPWF

References and links

Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) www.waterandfood.org

The World Bank www.worldbank.org World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) www.fao.org

International Water Management Institute (IWMI) www.iwmi.org Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) www.ifpri.org

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Photo Credits

Challenge Program on Water and FoodThe World BankInternational Water Management InstituteInternational Livestock Research InstituteInternational Development EnterprisesReuters

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