Eastern U.S. Web-based GIS Tool for Vineyard Site Evaluation

Peter Sforza

Virginia Tech Center for Geospatial Information Technology

sforza@vt.edu

http://www.cgit.vt.edu/

Virginia Vineyards Association Annual Meeting

Feb 1, 2014 - Charlottesville, VA

Overview of USDA SCRI Objective 2

The GIS component should be designed to give the user objective data about the suitability of a candidate parcel of land from the standpoint of: • Vineyard site assessment

– Soil and geology – Climate and Weather – Topography – Land use, etc. – Biological threat

• Varietal assessment (site x variety) – Spatial decision support system for potential variety “fit”

to candidate site

Geospatial Analysis for Variety x Site • Basic site characterization

– Soil characteristics

– Current land use

– Climate features

– Biological threats

• Varietal parameters – Length of Growing Season

– Seasonal Heat unit accumulation (C above 10C)

– Mean Growing Season Temp

– Cold hardiness & Low temperature frequency / duration

– Budbreak date & spring frost risk

• probability of Temp < [28, 30, 32, 34] after date X , where X is the [observed or modeled] budbreak date

– Harvest date & fall frost risk

• probability of Temp < [30, 32, 34, 36] after date X , where X is the [observed or modeled] harvest date

– Sensitivity to high temperatures

• Probability of Temp > [85, 90, 95, 100, 105] after date X, where X is [30 to 45] days before [observed or modeled] harvest date

A beta version of the application is available at: http://www.cgit.vt.edu/vineyards/

http://www.cgit.vt.edu/vineyards/

Cold Air Drainage

http://www.ppws.vt.edu/~sforza/climate/climatology _gr aphs.html

20-Year Maximum and Minimum temperatures – Fort Lee, Virginia

Length of Growing Season 171-191 frost free days based on (0-5% probability of T < 32F from day 97 - 107) and (0-5% probability of T < 32 from day 278 - 288)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Day of Year

Winter Temperature Probabilities

Prob T= -2.2°C

Prob T= 0°C

Prob T= 2.2°C

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Day of Year

Spring (MAM) Temperature Probabilities

Prob T= -2.2°C

Prob T= 0°C

Prob T= 2.2°C

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Day of Year

Summer (JJA) Temperature Probabilities

Prob T= 26.6°C

Prob T= 28.8°C

Prob T= 31.1°C

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Budbreak Begins

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Budbreak Ends

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Florasion

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Verasion

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Maturity

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Budbreak Begins

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

/ Ends

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Florasion

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Verasion Maturity

Cab Franc

CabSauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

PinotGris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

SauvingnonBlanc

Day of Year

Budbreak (begin and end ranges)

Cab Franc

Cab Sauvingnon

Chardonnay

Merlot

Mourvedre

Pinot Gris/Grigio

Pinot Noir

Riesling

Sauvingnon Blanc

Day of Year

Maturity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Day of Year

Fall Temperature Probabilities

Prob T= -2.2°C

Prob T= 0°C

Prob T= 2.2°C

Day of Year Summer

Prob T= 26.6°C

Prob T= 28.8°C

Prob T= 31.1°C

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Spring Temperature Probabilities

Prob T= -2.2°C

Prob T= 0°C

Prob T= 2.2°C

Budbreak

-35.00

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

27

5

28

9

30

3

31

7

33

1

34

5

35

9 7

21

35

49

63

77

91

10

5

11

9

Cold Hardiness (Concord) HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2001-2011

• Implemented model for cold hardiness following Ferguson et al (2011) • Next steps for a Cold Hardiness model:

• Updated Ferguson model • Evaluate model for use in the USDA Eastern U.S. project • Integrate model with CGIT computational infrastructure

Parameter Concord Chardonnay Cabernet

Sauvingnon

Hc,initial (°C) –11.94 –10.55 –9.99 Hc,max (°C) –29.73 –25.24 –24.63 Hc,min (°C) –3.00 –3.00 –3.00 Tth,endo (°C) 12.50 11.75 11.75 ka,endo (°C) 0.13 0.14 0.14 kd,endo (°C) 0.01 0.01 0.01 EDB (°C)* –700 –750 –850 Tth,eco (°C) 4.25 3.75 5.75 ka,eco (°C °C-1) 0.01 0.07 0.01 kd,eco (°C °C-1) 0.16 0.13 0.12 RMSE (°C) 2.05 1.40 1.47

asymptotic bounds on the absolute lowest and highest possible values of Hc to ΔHc with logistic functions (Mooney and Swift, 1999)

HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

ΔHc Is calculated from the sum of the daily Cooling Degree Days and Heating Degree Days.

Model parameters vary for endodormancy and ecodormancy stages. The transition from endo- to eco-dormancy is estimated by the eco-dormancy boundary (EDB) as accumulated Cooling Degree Days.

Concord

DATE TMAX TMIN AVG Temp Tth DDc AccDDc EDB DDh Hc deltaHc

DDc x ka x clog,a)

(DDh x kd x clog,d) cloga clogd

20070121 2.8 -5 -1.1 12.5 -13.6 -699.05 endo 0 -29.16 -0.040 -0.040047647 0.000 0.0227 0.9773

20070122 0.6 -3.9 -1.65 12.5 -

14.15 -713.2 endo 0 -29.20 -0.039 -0.03891123 0.000 0.0212 0.9788

20070123 4.4 -1.1 1.65 12.5 -

10.85 -724.05 eco 0 -29.21 -0.002 -0.002137172 0.000 0.0197 0.9803

20070124 2.2 -3.9 -0.85 4.25 -5.1 -729.15 eco 0 -29.21 -0.001 -0.001000492 0.000 0.0196 0.9804

20070125 3.9 -3.3 0.3 4.25 -3.95 -733.1 eco 0 -29.21 -0.001 -0.000773412 0.000 0.0196 0.9804

20070126 0.6 -8.3 -3.85 4.25 -8.1 -741.2 eco 0 -29.21 -0.002 -0.001583641 0.000 0.0196 0.9804

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

27

5

28

0

28

5

29

0

29

5

30

0

30

5

31

0

31

5

32

0

32

5

33

0

33

5

34

0

34

5

35

0

35

5

36

0

36

5 4 9

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

49

54

59

64

69

74

79

84

89

94

99

10

4

10

9

11

4

11

9

2001-2002

2003-2002

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-

Min Tmin

Avg Tmin

Concord

Blacksburg, VA

Cold Hardiness (Concord) HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2001-2011

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

27

5

28

0

28

5

29

0

29

5

30

0

30

5

31

0

31

5

32

0

32

5

33

0

33

5

34

0

34

5

35

0

35

5

36

0

36

5 4 9

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

49

54

59

64

69

74

79

84

89

94

99

10

4

10

9

11

4

11

9

2001-2002

2003-2002

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-

Min Tmin

Avg Tmin

Chardonnay

Blacksburg, VA

Cold Hardiness (Chardonnay) HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2001-2011

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

27

5

28

0

28

5

29

0

29

5

30

0

30

5

31

0

31

5

32

0

32

5

33

0

33

5

34

0

34

5

35

0

35

5

36

0

36

5 4 9

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

49

54

59

64

69

74

79

84

89

94

99

10

4

10

9

11

4

11

9

2001-2002

2003-2002

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-

Min Tmin

Avg Tmin

Cabernet Sauvignon

Blacksburg, VA

Cold Hardiness (Cab Sauv) HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2001-2011

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

27

52

79

28

32

87

29

12

95

29

93

03

30

73

11

31

53

19

32

33

27

33

13

35

33

93

43

34

73

51

35

53

59

36

3 1 5 91

31

72

12

52

93

33

74

14

54

95

35

76

16

56

97

37

78

18

58

99

39

71

01

10

51

09

11

31

17

12

1

Cabernet Sauvignon 2001-2002

Chardonnay 2001-2002

Concord 2001-2002

Min Tmin

Avg Tmin

Blacksburg, VA

Cold Hardiness HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2001-2002

Missing 1-month of weather data for Jan 2002 at Blacksburg, VA station

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

27

52

79

28

32

87

29

12

95

29

93

03

30

73

11

31

53

19

32

33

27

33

13

35

33

93

43

34

73

51

35

53

59

36

3 1 5 91

31

72

12

52

93

33

74

14

54

95

35

76

16

56

97

37

78

18

58

99

39

71

01

10

51

09

11

31

17

12

1

Cabernet Sauvignon 2002-2003

Chardonnay 2002-2003

Concord 2002-2003

Tmin Observed for 2002-2003

Avg Tmin

Min Tmin

Blacksburg, VA

Cold Hardiness HC = Predicted LTE50 of dormant buds

Blacksburg, VA 2002-2003

Varietal Database – NE1020 data

NE1020 Variety Trials Data

• Relevant Info included by some: – Varietal – Cultivar Clone – Trial Year, Observation date – Location – Disease, Pest and fungus data – Aroma/Acidity/Structure/Color – Commentary on climate, moisture,

temperature, weather events – Ripening level/success

• Need: – Phenological observations: budburst,

veraison, ripening, harvest dates, etc. – More specific anecdotal information – Any ranking information or matrices

used in the field to record data. Used for normalization

Spatial Data Sources

• Curating sources for each state regarding – Vineyard locations

– Varietal observations

– Data on grapes similar to NE1020

– Winery locations

Variety Source Link Location Primary Use Winter Hardiness (WH)

Chardonnay North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine 0 to -10

Viognier North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine -5 to -15

Muscat Ottonel North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera

Varietal wine, Blendslendsessert wine, Blends -5 to -10

Cabernet Sauvignon North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine, Blends 0 to -10

Cabernet Franc North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine, Blends -5 to -15

Merlot North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine, Blends 5 to -5

Chambourcin North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Hybrid Varietal wine, Blends -5 to -15

Seyval North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Hybrid Varietal wine, Blends -5 to -15

Niagara North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC

Native American blendsessert wine -10 to -20

Syrah North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine na

Petit Verdot North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine 0 to -10 F

Sangiovese North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine na

Mourvèdre North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine -5 to - 15F

Tannat North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine na

Petit Manseng North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Vinifera Varietal wine na

Traminette North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Hybrid B,Varietal wine -10 to -20F

Chardonel North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Hybrid Varietal wine, Blends -10 to -20F

Vidal Blanc North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC Hybrid B,Varietal wine -5 to -15F

Norton North Carolina Winegrape Grower's Guide C3 http://cals.ncsu.edu/hort_sci/extension/wine_grape.php NC

Native American Varietal wine, Blends -10 to -20F

Varietal Observation Database: Example of winter hardiness data (a summary of multiple years of observation) Winter Hardiness summary information from NCSU

Observations from AHP Study • Received four matrices (Wolf, Dami, Wise, Walter-Peterson) • On the whole climate factors ranked more important than soil factors.

– # of winter extremes and frost free days ranked highest importance. – AWC and Ksat were highest weighted soil parameters – Slope ranked as more important then most soil parameters but less important than

most climate parameters.

• This type of information may be important/useful for: – Varietal - specific recommendations – Regional - specific differences

• How can we solicit more detailed information related to ..

Multicriteria Decision Support

• Define objectives in a heirarchy

– General Objectives

• Specific Objectives – Attributes that are quantifiable indicators of the extent to

which an objective is realized

• Test for interdependence of every pair of attribute maps

• Develop attribute weights

A beta version of the application is available at:

http://www.cgit.vt.edu/vineyards/ Comments or Questions? cgit@vt.edu or sforza@vt.edu