Eastern City District – What’s Happening in the Housing MarketHousing Market Rental

Rents There have been strong increases in median rents for all dwellings (houses and flats

combined) in all bedroom categories over the past 10 years in the Eastern City District. The strongest increases have been in one bedroom dwellings, with a 117% price in increase in Burwood and 66% increase in Waverley since 2008.

The table below shows the percentage change in median rents for one, two, three and four or more bedroom dwellings between 2008 and 2018. Due to Inner West and Bayside Council amalgamations, additional LGAs have been reported below to demonstrate historical trends.

1 bedroom 2 bedroom 3 bedroom 4+ bedroom

Ashfield(data from 2008-June 2017)

60% 61% 46% 67%

Bayside(data from June 2017-September 2018)

-2% 5% 4% 0%

Botany Bay(data from 2008-June 2017)

137% 106% 89% 43%

Burwood 117% 55% 49% 33%

Canada Bay 30% 40% 39% 38%

Inner West(data from June 2017-September 2018)

0% 0% 0% 0%

Leichhardt(data from 2008-June 2017)

49% 43% 55% 71%

Marrickville(data from 2008-June 2017)

76% 59% 51% 90%

Randwick 43% 48% 53% 50%

Rockdale(data from 2008-June 2017)

81% 72% 57% 70%

Strathfield 50% 51% 44% 67%

Sydney 40% 42% 47% 64%

Waverley 66% 61% 59% 70%

Woollahra 35% 40% 38% 4%

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The table below gives median rents for studio, one, two, three and four or more bedroom dwellings across the Eastern City District in September 2018.

Median rents for one bedroom dwellings are highest in Waverley, for two bedroom dwellings they are highest in City of Sydney and for three and four or more bedroom dwellings they are highest in Woollahra.

Median rents for one bedroom dwellings are lowest in the Inner West and Strathfield, median rents for two and three bedroom dwellings are lowest in Strathfield, and median rents for four or more bedroom dwellings are lowest in Burwood.

Median Rents, Eastern City District, September 2018

1 bedroom 2 bedroom 3 bedroom 4+ bedroom

Bayside $530 $590 $730 $898

Burwood $500 $575 $720 $800

Canada Bay $520 $630 $780 $900

Inner West $450 $600 $850 $1,100

Randwick $500 $650 $900 $1,300

Strathfield $450 $530 $650 $920

Sydney $560 $775 $1,000 $1,200

Waverley $597 $750 $1,100 $1,700

Woollahra $500 $720 $1,175 $2,000

The graph below shows the long term trend in the median rental price for all dwelling types in the Eastern City District from 2008-2018. This graph shows that median rents have increase significantly since 2008, with some more than doubling. The graph also shows that this increase has slowed since 2017, with some LGAs experiencing a drop in the median rental price.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Vacancy Rate A vacancy rate of 3% is regarded as representing a balance between supply and

demand. For most of the period since 2006, the vacancy rate has been well below 3.0% - indicating a long term severe shortage of private rental accommodation. However since April 2017, the vacancy rate has been increasing sharply, and rose above the supply demand balance on 3% in December 2018.

However, with dwelling completion rates falling (particularly in apartments) along with forecast continued strong population growth, rental markets are projected to tighten again.

The graph below shows the vacancy rate for the Inner, Middle and Outer rings of Sydney for the period from 2006 to 2014, using data from the Real Estate Institute of NSW. Note that Inner West, Randwick, City of Sydney, Waverley and Woollahra are in the Inner Ring, Bayside, Burwood, Canada Bay and Strathfield are in the Middle Ring.

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Affordable Rental The reduction in the proportion of rental housing that is affordable has been significant,

with a very low proportion of stock now being affordable for very low income earners. At September 2017, the proportion of private rental stock that is affordable for very low

income earners in the Eastern City District ranged from 1.0% in Woollahra to 4.9% in the Inner West. The Inner West was the only LGA above the Greater Sydney average of 3.9%.

The graph below shows the proportion of private rental housing that is affordable for very low income households in Eastern City District by LGA between 2006 and 2017.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

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6Vacancy Rate - Inner, Middle and Outer Ring Sydney - 2006 to 2018

Sydney - Inner Sydney - Middle Sydney - Outer Supply Demand Balance

At September 2017, the proportion affordable for low income households ranged from 5.1% in Waverley to 18.7% in the Inner West. All LGAs were under the Greater Sydney average of 23.1%.

The graph below shows the proportion of private rental housing that is affordable for low income households in Eastern City District by LGA between 2006 and 2017.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Rental Stress In Eastern City District, all the LGAs have between 97%-99% of very low income

households in rental stress, above the average of 96% across Greater Sydney. All of the Eastern City District have higher than the Greater Sydney average proportions

of low income households in rental stress, ranging between 75% in Burwood and 94% in Waverley, with the Greater Sydney average being 70%.

These are extremely high proportions of lower income renters in housing stress. This again suggests that lower income earners are choosing to live here despite the lack of affordability. The graph below shows the proportion of very low and low income households in rental stress in Eastern City District, by LGAs at 2016.

The table below shows the number and proportion of tenants in the Eastern City District who are in the private rental market, are in receipt of Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA), and even with this additional income support, are in housing stress at 2016. All the Eastern City District LGAs have a higher proportion of CRA recipients in housing stress than the Greater Sydney average.

The highest rates of housing stress are found in Waverley and Woollahra. Numerically the highest numbers of households experiencing rental stress are found in Inner West and City of Sydney. Collectively, Eastern City District is home to 24% of the CRA recipients in housing stress across Greater Sydney.

Area Total CRA recipients 2016

CRA recipients in Housing Stress 2016

% CRA in Stress

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Bayside 6,976 4,028 57.7

Burwood 1,689 981 58.1

Canada Bay 2,164 1,349 62.3

Inner West 9,161 5,410 59.1

Randwick 4,833 3,119 64.5

Strathfield 1,724 1,000 58.0

Sydney 7,827 5,178 66.2

Waverley 2,018 1,390 68.9

Woollahra 1,102 821 74.5

Greater Sydney 228,180 115,735 50.7

Loss of Affordable Housing Stock FACS has calculated the number of affordable private rental bonds lodged in 2006,

2010, 2013 and 2017. All Eastern City District LGAs have experienced a significant loss of affordable housing

(in terms of affordable bonds lodged) between 2006 and 2017 ranging between 66% fewer affordable rental bonds lodged in City of Sydney over that period to 92% fewer in Waverley.

In particular, Inner West lost 3,905 properties over that period, City of Sydney lost 2,652 Bayside lost 2,140 and Randwick lost 1,273. Overall the District lost 12,142 between 2006 and 2017, with much of that loss occurring between 2006 and 2010 and then again between 2013 and 2017.

The vast majority of these LGAs already had very low levels of affordable housing by 2006. This underlines just how little affordable accommodation remains in Eastern City, in 2017 in Strathfield there were just 48 private rental bonds lodged for properties that theoretically were affordable to households earning 80% of the Sydney median income, in Burwood, 54.

The table below shows the number of new bonds lodged that were affordable to low income households in 2006, 2010 and 2017 and the reduction in affordable rental bonds lodged between 2006 and 2017.

No. of affordable rental properties for low

income households

Reduction in affordable rental properties 2006 to

2013

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Area 2006 2010 2017 No. Percentage drop (%)

Bayside 2,356 629 216 -2,140 -91%

Burwood 427 244 54 -373 -87%

Canada Bay 321 161 94 -227 -71%

Inner West 4,410 1,821 505 -3,905 -89%

Randwick 1,447 685 174 -1,273 -88%

Strathfield 481 106 48 -433 -90%

City of Sydney 4,018 1,985 1,366 -2,652 -66%

Waverley 861 355 69 -792 -92%

Woollahra 417 253 70 -347 -83%

This loss of affordable housing is having a direct impact on key workers (who are often lower paid) working in the District. Between 2006 and 2016, The Eastern Suburbs and Inner West in particular saw a 15.2% and 11.3% decline respectively in the number of key workers who live in the LGA.1

Key low income earners include teachers, registered nurses, hospitality services, accommodation and food services, early childhood, police and aged care workers. These are important occupations and provide necessary services and assistance to the wider District community. In performing their roles in hospitality, education, public health and safety, key workers significantly influence the social and economic wellbeing of their local areas.

Eastern City in particular has a high number of hospitality, tourism, health care and aged care workers who work in the District, due to the hospital precincts of St Vincent’s and the Prince Alfred hospitals, the concentration of tourists, restaurants and night life spots and the concentrations of aged care facilities in Bronte, Bondi and the Inner West.

1 Gurran, N., Gilbert, C. Zhang, Y., Phibbs, P. 2018 “Key worker housing affordability in Sydney”, Report prepared for Teachers Mutual Bank, Firefighters Mutual Bank, Police Bank and My Credit Union, The University of Sydney, Sydney

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Without appropriate affordable housing, these workers will be forced to move from the area, either increasing the commute time for these workers or may result in a shortage of available workforce.

Housing Market – Purchase

Sales Price In terms of LGAs that exist as of 2018, the largest increases in median sales price

between 2008 and 2018 have been found in Strathfield (97%) and Burwood (95%), and for units in Woollahra (87%) and Waverley (86%).

Houses Flats

2008 2018 Change % 2008 2018 Change %

Ashfield(data from 2008-June 2017)

$725,000 $1,523,000 $798,000 110% $347,00

0 $708,000 $361,000 104%

Bayside(data from June 2017-September 2018)

$1,450,000 $1,195,000 -$225,000 -16% $765,00

0 $700,000 -$65,000 -8%

Botany Bay(data from 2008-June 2017)

$710,000 $1,555,000 $845,000 119% $390,00

0 $818,000 $428,000 110%

Burwood $770,000 $1,500,000 $730,000 95% $440,00

0 $750,000 $310,000 70%

Canada Bay $884,000 $1,705,000 $821,000 93% $540,00

0 $880,000 $340,000 63%

Inner West(data from June 2017-September 2018)

$1,650,000 $1,371,000 -$279,000 -17% $790,00

0 $735,000 -$55,000 -7%

Leichhardt(data from 2008-June 2017)

$879,000 $1,750,000 $871,000 99% $550,00

0 $905,000 $355,000 65%

Marrickville(data from 2008-June 2017)

$629,000 $1,455,000 $826,000 131% $341,00

0 $750,000 $409,000 120%

Randwick $1,055,000 $1,845,000 $790,000 75% $485,00

0 $862,000 $377,000 78%

Rockdale(data from 2008-June 2017)

$591,000 $1,400,00 $809,000 136% $356,000 $680,000 $324,000 91%

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Strathfield $725,000 $1,425,000 $700,000 97% $360,00

0 $628,000 $268,000 74%

Sydney $780,000 $1,411,000 $631,000 81% $500,00

0 $850,000 $350,000 70%

Waverley $1,512,000 $2,350,000 $838,000 25% $575,00

0$1,070,00

0 $495,000 86%

Woollahra $2,400,000 $3,600,000 $1,200,000 50% $650,00

0$1,213,00

0 $563,000 87%

Median sale prices across all LGAs have increased significantly since 2008, especially from 2013 onwards. Woollahra in particular saw a very significant increase in sales price between 2015 and early 2018, as well as Waverley to a lesser extent. Since the end of 2017, most LGAs have seen a decrease in median sales price for both houses and strata, however prices remain very high in this District.

The two graphs below show the long term trend in median sales price for houses and for strata properties.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Purchase Affordability Purchase affordability for very low income earners in the Eastern City District has been

close to 0% in all LGAs for the last 12 years, as the graph below demonstrates. All Eastern City District LGAs have had purchase affordability rates of less than 1.5% for the period between June 2006 and June 2017.

At June 2017, the proportion of affordable purchases for very low income households in Eastern City District was between 0.3% (Bayside) and 1.5% (City of Sydney), compared to the Greater Sydney average of 1.1%. City of Sydney was the only LGA above the Greater Sydney average. Note that despite the recent slight improvement, purchase affordability is still virtually non-existent for very low income households in this District.

The graph below shows the proportion affordable to purchase for very low income households in all LGAs across the Eastern City district between 2006 and 2017.

Currently, low income earners cannot afford to purchase in any of the Eastern City District LGAs. All the Eastern City District (except City of Sydney) have considerably less affordable purchase for low income earners than the average for Greater Sydney (with the exception of City of Sydney, as the graph below demonstrates.

As September 2017, the proportion affordable to purchase for low income households in Eastern City District has increased since 2015 (except in Strathfield) and now ranges between 0.8% in Strathfield to 3.3 in City of Sydney.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

The opportunities for moderate income households to purchase in Eastern City District are limited. Again all the LGAs have far less affordable purchase for moderate income households than the average for Greater Sydney of 12.8% at September 2017, as shown in the graph below. All LGA’s within Eastern City District range between 2.6% in Woollahra and 10.9% in Strathfield.

www.facs.nsw.gov.au

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/nsw-local-government-housing-kit/chapters/local-government-housing-kit-database

More detailed information on Rent and Sales data is available from the Rent and Sales report on the FACS website at:

https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/resources/statistics/rent-and-sales/dashboard

More information on vacancy rates is available from the Real Estate Institute of NSW website (see their media releases on vacancy rates):

https://www.reinsw.com.au/

www.facs.nsw.gov.au