EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014
description
Transcript of EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014
![Page 1: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
EASFAA 2014 - Puerto RicoMay 18-21, 2014
Waves of Change, Oceans of Opportunity
Cost Containment and Price Sensitivity: the Perfect Storm
![Page 2: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Agenda
• The challenging environment
• How do we respond?– Institutional understanding– Process/outreach
• Questions
![Page 3: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Trends in College Pricing 2013 For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org.
Change Family Income by Quintile1982–1992, 1992–2002, and 2002–2012
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013, Figure 20A.
![Page 4: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Trends in College Pricing 2013 For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org.
Annual % Change in State Appropriations for Higher Ed and Annual % Change in Tuition & Fees at Public 4-Year Institutions 1982-83 to 2012-13
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013, Figure 14A.
![Page 5: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Demographic Forecast
-3%
-6%-6%
+3%
SOURCE: WICHE, Jon McGee
Projected Change in High School Graduates2012 to 2020
![Page 6: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
College Costs Surge 538% since 1985 - Renewed calls for change & accountability from both political parties.
![Page 7: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Trends in College Pricing 2013 For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org.
Tuition & Fees; Net Tuition & Fees; Room & Board at Public Institutions, 2003-04 to 2013-14
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013, Figure 10.
![Page 8: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Trends in College Pricing 2013 For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org.
Average Total Debt of BA Degree Recipients Public Four-Year Institutions
SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013, Figure 10A.
![Page 9: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How America Pays For College2009 vs. 2013
2009 2013
Source: Sallie Mae
![Page 10: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Recent Trends
• Students are applying to more schools.• The number of students applying for aid has increased.• Attending a community college for the first two years
has become more socially and educationally acceptable; in some cases it’s an economic imperative.• Inside Higher Ed reported on a study from Sallie Mae that
said 22 percent of college students with a family income of over $100,000 opted for a community college in 2011. Four years prior, it was at 16 percent.
![Page 11: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Recent Trends
• Institutional discount rates are increasing as are “appeals” for additional aid – without corresponding increases in enrollment.
• Significant additions/changes in Title IV regulatory requirements, particularly in consumer information and program integrity.
• President Obama’s Affordability Plan (college rating system)• Paying for performance• Promoting Innovation and competition• Ensuring that student debt remains affordable
![Page 12: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
How Do We Respond?
12
![Page 13: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Use Data Not Anecdote
•Keeping an “ear to the ground” plays a role, but that should not be the foundation of your awarding strategies.
•Using analytical approaches to understanding student responses to your aid offers is where your strategy needs to begin.▫Table analysis▫Predictive modeling▫Simulation tools
![Page 14: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Sample Yield Table
• Tuition = $15,000
>$6000
$4000-$6000 25/100 25%Gift Aid $2000-$4000 16/80 20%
$1-$2000 8/40 20%$0
$0 $1-$2k $2k-$4k $4k-$6k $6k-$8k > $8kNeed
![Page 15: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Cost/Benefit Analysis
•Current NTR:▫8 * $14,000▫16 * $12,000▫25 * $10,000 = 49 enrolled - $554,000
•Projected NTR:▫20% * 220 = 44 enrolled▫44 * $14,000 = $616,000
•Projected Gain in NTR = $62,000
![Page 16: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Focus on NTR
•Not just class size or the aid budget•Keeps admissions and financial aid on the
same page
•More (# or $) is not always better
▫Depends on capacity
▫Depends on price elasticity
•Helps with realistic budget planning
![Page 17: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Be Transfer Friendly
•Usually have lower discount rates and higher yield rates, but still need to know that you are affordable
• Less demand on service courses and support services
•Growing market – need to be prepared to serve them effectively
![Page 18: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Have a Plan for Handling Appeals or Changes in Federal/state support
•Types of appeals:▫PJ▫Matching▫Affordability
•Importance of tracking reports
•Timing of decision
•Academic program
•Account for the costs in the aid budget
![Page 19: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Appeals Analysis
Approved Denied Total
# of appeals 187 39 226# enrolled 118 21 139
yield 63.1% 53.8% 61.5%
Approved Denied Total
# of appeals 108 62 170# enrolled 67 43 110
yield 62.0% 69.4% 64.7%
Approved Denied Total
# of appeals 117 64 181# enrolled 76 43 119
yield 65.0% 67.2% 65.7%
Fall 2012
Fall 2011
Fall 2010
![Page 20: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sacrifice
Sacrifice is assumed
The U.S. Post Secondary education system of financing is based on the family’s responsibility to pay for their child’s college education.
Financial Aid is based on supplementing not supplanting a family’s ability to pay.
Ability is not willingness
Merit wars!
![Page 21: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Become Comfortable with Conversations about Financing
•Tighter credit
•Parent loan vs. unsubsidized Stafford vs. private loans vs. payment plan vs. home equity line of credit
•Impact of new regulations regarding income based repayment and loan forgiveness
• Financial literacy
![Page 22: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
How Do We Respond?Build a Trend Based Financial Aid Budget Model
Years Past Present Future# Freshmen# on aidAverage aidTotal aid
# Sophomore# on aidAverage aidTotal aid
# Junior# on aidAverage aidTotal aid# Senior# on aidAverage aidTotal aid
#
Assumptions:EFC, % on aid, % retained, change in average award, etc.
![Page 23: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Sample Benchmarking
College A $18,095 35.0% 69% 1020-1200 Liberal Arts Bach. 3rd tierCollege B $22,790 50.4% 79% 1060-1250 Liberal Arts Bach. 2nd tierCollege C $24,945 29.5% 35% 1104-1284 Liberal Arts Bach. 2nd tierCollege D $27,400 39.3% 89% 1010-1220 Liberal Arts Bach. 3rd tierUniversity E $28,190 54.6% 61% 1040-1240 Liberal Arts Bach. 2nd tierCollege F $28,900 28.7% 61% 1100-1290 Liberal Arts Bach. 2nd tierCollege G $28,928 25.6% 69% 1130-1320 Liberal Arts Bach. (38)College H $30,000 33.6% 35% 1200-1370 Liberal Arts Bach. (18)
College/University U.S. News Ranking 2010
(America's Best Colleges)
Tuition & Fees
2009-2010
Discount Rate
2007-2008
Fall 2008 Accept Rate
Fall 2008 SAT 25-75%
Sources: College/University websites, IPEDS, and USNews & World Report.
![Page 24: EASFAA 2014 - Puerto Rico May 18-21, 2014](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081519/5681481a550346895db54617/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Questions?
Sam VeederNazareth College
4245 East Ave.Rochester, NY 14618
www.naz.edu
Heather McDonnellSarah Lawrence College
1 Mead WayBronxville/Yonkers, NY 10708
www.slc.edu