Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect
Transcript of Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect
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Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect
Antropogenic greenhouse gases emission contribute to global warming by increasing the proportion of infrared radiations re-emitted to earth.
Reflection to space by atmosphere, clouds, and earth surface
102 W/m2
Radiation absorbed and converted into heat ...
240 W/m2
...causing emission of infrared radiation back to
the atmosphere 390 W/m2
Infrared radiation emitted to space
240 W/m2Average incident solar radiation
342 W/m2
Greenhouse gases
Part of infrared radiation is absorbed by GHG and
re-emitted causing warming
Clouds
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Observed changes in global average surface temperatureDifferences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990
+0.6
+0.4
+0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
20001980196019401920190018801860
Based on Brohan et al. (2008)
Annual average air temperature10-year running mean
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Evolution of sea ice surface area on the Arctic ocean
Based on Spreen et al. (2007) and data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center
Average sea ice in September 1979-2000 Sea ice coverage on 16 September 2007
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Evolution of carbon dioxide, methane and temperature over the last 420,000 years
-5
-10
0
Tem
pera
ture
var
iatio
n (°
C)
+5
Years-400,000 2009-300,000 -200,000 -100,000
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.8
Met
hane
con
cent
ratio
n (p
arts
per
mill
ion)
0.9
0.4
2009: 1.6
Carbon dioxide Methane Temperature
300
250
150
200
350
Car
bon
diox
ide
conc
entra
tion
(par
ts p
er m
illion
) 4002009: 385
Note that the change in carbon dioxide from 290 ppm in 1900 to 385 ppm in 2009, and in methane from roughly 0.7 ppm in 1850 to about 1.6 ppm in 2009 are much much faster than any of the earlier changes, even those that appear very steep on the 400,000-year scale. On this scale, the warming since 1900 hardly appears. Note that the “present” when dates are given as “before present” or B.P. corresponds by convention to the year 1950.Source: Petit et al. (1999) - Ice core samples from the Vostok records.
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Map of the world proportional to carbon dioxide emissions (1900-1999)
United States30,3%
Australia1,1%
Canada2,3%
Europe 27,7%
South and Central America
3,8%
Africa2,5%
Former Soviet Union13,7%
Middle East2,6%
China, India,Asia 12,2%
Japan3,7%
Source: World Ressource Insitute.
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Greenhouse gas emissions by sectors
Agriculture 12.5%
Residential &services 10.3%
Land use & deforestation 10.0%
Other 0.6%
Waste disposal& treatment 3.4%
Industry 16.8%
Transportation 14.0%
Fossil fuel 11.3%(extraction, processing &
distribution)
Power stations 21.3%with final use:• Industry 38%• Resid. & services 36%• Transportation 26%
62.0%
3.8%
40.0%
29.6%
6.6%4.8%
0.9%
18.1%
2.3%5.9%
26.0%
Methane Nitrous oxide
Source: Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research.
29.5%
0.3%
20.6%
8.4%
9.1%
12.9%
19.2%
Carbon Dioxide72%
Methane18%
Nitrous oxide9%
Other1%
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Evolution of industrial energy use
AfricaMiddle East
Industrialised countries
Developing countries Asia-PacificEconomies in transition*
Latin America
Years1970 19951980 1990
Prim
ary
ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
60
20
0
10
80
70
50
30
40
* Industrialized countries of the former Soviet bloc, in transition to a market economy.Source: IPCC3 - TAR - Figure 3-11.
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Evolution of energy efficiency
Korea
ChinaIndia
United KingdomFrance
USA
Russian Federation
Japan
Ene
rgy
effic
ienc
y (to
n oi
l equ
ival
ent/1
000
$US
)
3.0
1.0
0
0.5
3.5
4.0
2.5
1.5
2.0
0.3
0.1
0
0.4
0.5
0.2
Years1960 1970 20001980 1990
Years1960 1970 20001980 1990
Because part of the upward infrared radiation from the surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases (and clouds) and re-emitted downward, the surface is warmed to an average temperature of +15°C and emits 390 W/m2 of infrared radiation upward to the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases intensify the natural greenhouse warming by increasing the proportion of infrared radiation re-emitted to the Earth’s surface.Source: World Resources Institute - OECD/IEA.
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Total lifecycle emissions of chemical industry products (2005)
Total greenhouse gas emissions of the chemical industry was 3,300 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005. This figure does not include emissions savings enabled by products of the chemical industry.Source: ICCA Report
Disposal Carbon dioxide,methane 15.2%
Disposal High global warming
potential gases 12.1%
ProductionDirect energyemissions 18.2%
ProductionProcess emissions 21.2%
Extraction 9.1%
ProductionIndirect energyemissions 24.2%
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Chemical industry applications and the net abatement (final product savings in industry emissions) they allowed in 2005
Total net greenhouse gas emissions abatment allowed by chemical industry application was 6,010 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005 (including fertilizer and crop protection). Without agriculture, the abatment is 4,000 million tons.These figures alos includes 850 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent for which no realistic non-chemical alternative exist.* Transportation: automotive weight reduction (120 MtCO2e), improved engine efficiency (70 MtCO2e)and green tyre (40 MtCO2e).** Energy production: wind power (60 MtCO2e), solar power (40 MtCO2e) and district heating (60MtCO2e).Source: ICCA Report.
Insulation 39.9%
Fertilizer & crop protection 26.6%
Lighting 11.6%
Packaging 3.7%
Transportation* 3.8%
Marine antifouling 3.2%
Other 3.8%Piping 1.2%
Low-temp. detergents 1.3%Synthetic textile 2.2%
Energy production** 2.7%
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Chemical industry of EU27 All sectors of EU27
Comparison of evolution of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions
Variations in Growth Domestic Product (EU27) or sales (chemical industry)
All sectors of EU27Chemical industry of EU27
Variations in emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent
Years1990 20061980 1990 2000
Varia
tion
com
pare
d to
199
0 (%
)
100
60
80
200
160
180
120
140
Evolution of carbon intensity for EU27 and chemical industry of EU27
Years
Varia
tion
com
pare
d to
199
0 (%
)
0
100
60
80
20
40
1990 20061980 1990 2000
Sources: European Environment Agency and Eurostat
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20056,010 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
Insulation 39.9%
Fertilizer & crop protection 26.6%
Lighting 11.6%
Transportation 3.8%
Other 12.1%Energy production 2.7%Marine antifouling 3.2%
Insulation 36.2%
Lighting 22.0%
Transportation 3.2%
Fertilizer & cropprotection 16.2%
Energy production7.8%
Biofuel 3.2%
Other 8.7%
Marine antifouling 2.6%
2030 - “Business as usual” scenario15,450 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
2.57 fold savings enabled in 2005
Insulation 34.6%
Lighting 20.9%
Fertilizer & cropprotection 12.7%
Biofuel 5.1%
Other 5.1%Marine antifouling 2.0%Transportation 2.5%
Energy production 14.0%
Carbon capture & storage3.1%
2030 - Abatment scenario19,650 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
3.27 fold savings enabled in 2005
Greenhouse gas emissions savings enabled by chemical industry products in 2005 compared with those estimated in 2030 for differents scenarios
Graphic size is proportional to the savings enabled.Source : ICCA Report
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Some examples of abatement scenario costs
Abat
emen
t (m
illion
tons
car
bon
diox
ide
equi
vale
nt)
1000
0
6000
4000
5000
2000
-100 60-60 20 40-80 -40 -20 0
3000
Negative costs i.e. benefits
better useof waste
LEDlighting
forest &grassland
management
biomass in power plants
improved vehicles efficiency land
restoration
solar powerwind
powernuclearpower
carbon capture& storage
farmlandmanagement
€ / ton of carbon dioxide equivalent
Source: ICCA Report