Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World...
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Transcript of Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World...
![Page 1: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Earth’s Changing EnvironmentLecture 11
GrowthGrowthGrowth
![Page 2: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Growth Rate
Growth Rate = % change/year
World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154 billion in 2001.
This corresponds to a Growth Rate equal to 1.2%.
![Page 3: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
US Population Growth
Current US Population:
293 millionGrowth Rate = 0.87%Population Growth
= 0.0087x 293 million
= 2.5 million2050 Population: 403 million
![Page 4: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global Population Growth
Current Global Population:
6.3 billionGrowth Rate = 1.15 %Population Growth
= 0.0115x 6.3 billion
= 73 million2050 Population: 9.1 billion
![Page 5: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Global Population GrowthMore/Less Developed Countries
Now World: 6.3 billion MDC: 1.20 LDC: 5.10
2050 World: 9.1 billion MDC: 1.25 billion LDC: 7.84 billion
![Page 6: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Growth in Energy ConsumptionMDCs & LDCs
Now World: 400 QBtu MDC: 270 QBtu LDC: 130 QBtu
2050* World: 800 QBtu MDC: 320 QBtu LDC: 480 QBtu
* A mid-range prediction
![Page 7: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What is the carrying capacity of the Earth?
![Page 8: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Population growth increases environmental impacts
Increasing population and increasing energy consumption will accelerate:
depletion of fossil fuel resources
increasing pollutiondeclining biodiversity
![Page 9: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
US Energy ConsumptionUS Primary Energy Consumption 1949-2002
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
En
erg
y (Q
btu
)
?
![Page 10: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Arab Oil Embargo of 1973
![Page 11: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Exponential Growth Models
US Primary Energy Consumption 1949-2002
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
En
erg
y (Q
btu
)
![Page 12: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Exponential Growth
Constant Growth Rate
![Page 13: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Doubling Time
DT, the doubling time, is the time for something (population, energy consumption, pollution) to double.
DT (years) = 70 / Growth Rate (%)
If Growth Rate = 3.5%, DT = 70/3.5 = 20 years.
![Page 14: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Growth in Energy ConsumptionUS Primary Energy Consumption 1949-1972
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year
En
erg
y (Q
btu
)
Growth rate = 3.4% What’s the doubling time?
![Page 15: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Exponential Growth ModelsUS Primary Energy Consumption 1949-2002
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
En
erg
y (Q
btu
)
![Page 16: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Growth in Energy Consumption
Growth rate = 1.6% What’s the doubling time now?
US Primary Energy Consumption 1983 - 2002
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
En
erg
y (Q
btu
)
![Page 17: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Per Capita graph shows the effect of population growth
US Per Capita Primary Energy Consumption
200
250
300
350
400
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Per
Cap
ita
(Mil
lio
n B
tu)
![Page 18: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Global Energy Consumption
Growth rate = 1.76% What’s the doubling time?
Global Primary Energy Consumption
250
300
350
400
450
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
En
erg
y (
QB
tu)
![Page 19: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Global Energy Consumption
Growth rate = 0.2 % What’s the doubling time?
Global per Capita Primary Energy Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Pe
r C
ap
ita
En
erg
y
(Mill
ion
Btu
)
![Page 20: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Another Calculation
During 2003, India consumed
13 QBtu of primary energy.Suppose the growth of Indian
energy consumption equals 5%.What will be India’s consumption
level in 2059?DT = 70 / 5 = 14 years56 y / 14 y = 4Doubles 4 times: 2x2x2x2 = 16 In 2059: 16 x 13 = 208 QBtu
![Page 21: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Lifetime of a Non-Renewable
Lifetime (L) of a non-renewable Resource (R) with current consumption (C) increasing with a fixed growth rate (G):
L = [Ln(G R/C + 1)]/G
![Page 22: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Example: Oil
R = 2000 Gbo C = 28 Gbo/year G = 5% L = 30 years
R = 4000 Gbo L = 42 years
G = -1 % L = 125 years
![Page 23: Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 11 Growth. Growth Rate Growth Rate = % change/year World population increased from 6.079 billion in 2000 to 6.154.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e9d5503460f94b9e2b1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A note of caution The doubling time
calculation is very useful for estimating the effects of exponential growth, but it does not always lead to realistic predictions. If the growth rate is not constant, then growth will not be exponential.