Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance...
Transcript of Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance...
Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016 26 April 2016 Riyadh-HQ
This presentation contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements, including statements about the
beliefs and expectations of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (the "Company"). These statements are based on the Company's current
plans, estimates and projections, as well as its expectations of external conditions and events. Forward-looking statements involve
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assumptions, a prospective investor should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A number of important
factors could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. The
Company is not obliged to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward- looking statements made in this presentation
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Forward looking statement
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Our Vision To be a world class minerals enterprise.
Our Mission To lead the responsible development of the mining sector as the third pillar of the Saudi Industry by maximizing the value of the mineral resources for our stakeholders and adopting best in class practices.
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Engr. Khalid S. Al-Mudaifer President & CEO
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► Revenue of SAR 2,273 million, down 17% primarily due to weak commodity prices
► EBITDA of SAR 898 million, down 5%, margins increased to 39% from 34%
► Net income of SAR 185 million, down 36%
► Net cash generated from operations SAR 364 million, up 3%
Financial
► 600K tonnes of phosphate fertilizer sold, up 9%
► 206K tonnes of ammonia sold, up 348% mainly due to plant shutdown in Q1-2015
► 216K tonnes of aluminium* sold, up 9%
► 40K ounces of gold sold, up 3%
Operational
Highlights (Q1-16 vs Q1-15)
* Total sales by smelter including sales through Ma’aden and Alcoa as marketers and to the rolling company
Investment
► Ad Duwayhi commercialised April 1, 2016
► Capex of SAR 3,107 million spent in Q1 2016 mainly on the Wa’ad al Shamal (WAS) Project
► WAS progressing well and first WAS plant (ammonia) reached +92% completion by quarter end
► Demand of Aluminium continues to grow
at ~5% in the next five years
► Global supply/demand balance
predicted to improve in 2016
► Supply of ~5 million tonnes taken out of
global market since the beginning of last
year which should help to stabilize
prices and potentially provide a price
floor
Aluminium
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► Smelter operations continue to be stable and we remain focussed on optimizing the efficiency of the
unit which is currently operating above design capacity
► Mine and refinery are ramping up well with the refinery now meeting full demand of alumina for the
smelter - goal is to stabilise refinery operations as soon as possible
► Rolling mill operations continue to ramp up production
► First autosheets delivered to Jaguar Land Rover in the UK for initial testing
Aluminium price 3M CS (US$/t)
Source: Bloomberg, CRU march 2016, MS 2016, secondary analysis
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Phosphate
► Demand for DAP continues to grow at
1.8% CAGR
► Shift of cost curve due to low oil price
increased the supply which in turn
impacted the current prices of DAP
► Currency depreciation at major
importing countries like Brazil and India
impacted demand
► Brazil demand remains volatile
► Good Phosphate performance delivered a 9% increase of phosphate fertilizers sales volume over
corresponding period last year.
► Ammonia plant continues to operate above its design capacity resulting in increased sales volumes.
► Beneficiation plant running reliably and meeting 100% of demand from phosphoric acid unit.
► Prices of DAP and Ammonia remained volatile during the quarter.
DAP Price Tampa Index (US$/t)
Source: Ma’aden SBU analysis, Bloomberg, CRU 2016 6
300
350
400
450
500
550
Ad Duwayhi
► Commercial production at the Ad Duwayhi
mine announced on April 1, 2016
► Project completed within budgeted capex of
US$ 350 million
► Ma’aden’s largest gold mine with total
reserves (as at December 31, 2015) of 1.9
million oz of gold
► Production expected to average 180,000 oz
per annum over the 10 year mine life
► Work continues on the feasibility studies for
Mansourrah and Massarah
► Major milestone for Ma’aden which will
support our goal of reaching production of
500,000 oz of gold per annum
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Productivity and costs
► Initiatives begun in 2015 to increase productivity and to reduce our costs
► Benefits of these efforts now showing in our results
Cost of sales
Selling marketing and logistics
General and administrative
Key initiatives
► Increasing productivity and volumes across our
production facilities
► Reducing cost through:
► Efficiencies
► Higher throughput
► Re-negotiation of contracts
► Optimising sustaining capex
► Working capital and inventory management
Q1 2016
vs
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
vs
Q4 2015
EBITDA margin
-16%
► Programme now established to generate significant incremental cash-flows over the next 5 years
-8%
-10%
-16%
-50%
-34%
+5pp +10pp
Exploration and tech services -65% -72%
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Darren Davis Vice President, Finance & CFO
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(6)
169
2,744 2,659 2,273
942 776
898
387
182
303
Net income Attributable to shareholders’
of parent company
Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
All number are in SAR million
Q1 2016
vs
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
vs
Q4 2015
67%
16%
374%
-
-17%
-22%
-5%
-36%
-35%
-15%
Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015
► Revenue decreased y-o-y mainly due to
lower commodity prices and a slight
decrease in aluminium sales.
► Despite the positive impacts of higher
volumes in Gold, DAP and ammonia
► Net income declined due to lower
revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO
and higher finance charges
Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015
► Revenue decreased q-o-q due to reduced
phosphate fertilizers and ammonia prices,
lower phosphate fertilizer sales volumes,
and increased financial charges
► Net income increased due to lower
inventory loss, increased cost efficiencies,
reduced loss in SAMAPCO and higher
income from investments
10
289
39
185
Net income
EBITDA
Operating income
Revenue
Key financial results
Net income bridge – Q1-15 vs Q1-16
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► Negative impact of low commodity price was largely offset by increased volume and reduced costs
► Systematic reduction / postponed sustaining capex and exploration services brought additional
benefits
Others
SAR (20) mn Gross profit
SAR (123) mn Operating expenses
SAR 38 mn
289
-785
301
361
17 21
-45
25 185
Gross profit SAR (40) mn
Others SAR 25 mn
Operating expenses SAR 161 mn
Net income bridge – Q4-15 vs Q1-16
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► Negative impact of low commodity price was largely offset by increased volume and reduced
costs
► Systematic reduction / postponed sustaining capex and exploration services brought additional
benefits
39
-299 79
180
132 29
-11
35 185
Aluminium
► Q1 2016, has been a very good quarter
in terms of operational performance and
cost reduction. Our smelter achieved
lowest ever cost/tonne of aluminium.
► Produced and sold 216K tonnes of
primary aluminium from MAC
► Alumina refinery is ramping well and has
achieved ~80% capacity utilization rates
during Q1 2016.
► Targeting to achieve 100% captive
alumina use
► LME prices have declined sharply by
16% in Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015; which
impacted revenues and margins
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` Production
` Sales
198
220 216
198
220 219
135
122
128
Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
Aluminium sales – corp (‘000 tonnes)
Average LME prices (US$/t)
Aluminium (‘000 tonnes)
1,800
1,495 1,515
Phosphate ► During the quarter, MPC recorded a 9%
increase in phosphate fertilizer sales at
600K tonnes compared to Q1 2015. First
quarter usually sees low demand in DAP,
declined by 19% compared to Q4 2015.
► External sales of ammonia in Q1 2016
increased by 348% at 206K tonnes
compared to Q1 2015. Due to a planned
shutdown in ammonia plant in Q1 2015.
► We have significantly reduced our cash
cost in both phosphate fertilizer and
ammonia and more efforts are underway to
optimize the costs further
► Phosphate fertilizer and ammonia prices
have declined by +30% in Q1 2016
compared to Q4 2015 which impacted
most of our margins
551
745
600 561
694 659
Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
DAP (‘000 tonnes)
Ammonia (‘000 tonnes)
14
46
143
206 192
312 303.5
` Production
` Sales
482 421
366
472 422
326
` DAP Prices
` Ammonia Prices
Average DAP prices (US$/t)
Gold and copper
► During the quarter, production increased
by 16% to 44 Koz and sales increased
by 3% to 40 Koz.
► Continuous efforts are underway to
reduce costs, with Ad Duwayhi
commercialization we expect the overall
cost will come down in coming quarters.
► The gold price has been steady for the
last few quarters
► Jabal Sayid produced over 7.3K tonnes
of copper in concentrate in Q1 2016.
Commissioning is progressing very well
and is expected to start soon.
1,209
1,069
1,192
Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
Average gold prices (US$/oz)
39
42
40
Gold sales (Koz)
15
` Production
` Sales
38
42
44 Gold production (‘Koz)
Finance strategy highlights
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► Optimizing capital structure
► Refocusing debt from project finance
► MPC refinancing was completed successfully
Cash and debt position (All numbers are in SAR billion)
43 44 45 45 53
34 36 38 32
42
44%
45% 47%
40%
48%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Total debt Net debt Net debt to capital
Available total liquidity of SAR 17.6 billion*
Liquidity = Cash and cash equivalent + short term investments + revolver credit facility * As on 31 March 2016
Debt repayment schedule
17
190
633
873
1,006
1,150
1,298
1,751
2,111
1,246
1,373
1,672
834
589 575
288
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MPC MAC MRC MBAC WAS MGBM MIC
Key takeaways
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► Prices for aluminium and phosphate remain under pressure
► Our focus on operational excellence and cost controls have helped to offset this
► Our efforts are being accelerated with the aim of achieving further increased cash flow
over the coming 5 years
► Continue to ensure our major projects are completed to budget and schedule and to
bring into profitable commercial operation as soon as possible
Q & A