Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance...

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Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016 26 April 2016 Riyadh-HQ

Transcript of Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance...

Page 1: Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance charges Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 Revenue decreased q-o-q due to reduced phosphate fertilizers

Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016 26 April 2016 Riyadh-HQ

Page 2: Earnings Call Presentation Q1 2016...revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO and higher finance charges Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015 Revenue decreased q-o-q due to reduced phosphate fertilizers

This presentation contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking statements, including statements about the

beliefs and expectations of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (the "Company"). These statements are based on the Company's current

plans, estimates and projections, as well as its expectations of external conditions and events. Forward-looking statements involve

inherent risks and uncertainties and speak only as of the date they are made. As a result of these risks, uncertainties and

assumptions, a prospective investor should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A number of important

factors could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. The

Company is not obliged to, and does not intend to, update or revise any forward- looking statements made in this presentation

whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This communication has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of the Company. It has not been reviewed, approved or

endorsed by any financial advisor, lead manager, selling agent, receiving bank or underwriter retained by the Company. This

communication is provided for information purposes only. In addition, because this communication is a summary only, it may not

contain all material terms and this communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision.

The information and opinions herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no

representation or warranty, express or implied, is made with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy reasonableness or

completeness of the information and opinions. There is no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise

notify you if information, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.

You are strongly advised to seek your own independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or

regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change

the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future

performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency, rate or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. The Company disclaims liability for any loss arising out of or in connection with your use

of, or reliance on, this communication.

These materials may not be published, distributed or transmitted and may not be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the

explicit consent of Ma’aden’s management. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the

securities in any jurisdiction.

Forward looking statement

1

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Our Vision To be a world class minerals enterprise.

Our Mission To lead the responsible development of the mining sector as the third pillar of the Saudi Industry by maximizing the value of the mineral resources for our stakeholders and adopting best in class practices.

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Engr. Khalid S. Al-Mudaifer President & CEO

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► Revenue of SAR 2,273 million, down 17% primarily due to weak commodity prices

► EBITDA of SAR 898 million, down 5%, margins increased to 39% from 34%

► Net income of SAR 185 million, down 36%

► Net cash generated from operations SAR 364 million, up 3%

Financial

► 600K tonnes of phosphate fertilizer sold, up 9%

► 206K tonnes of ammonia sold, up 348% mainly due to plant shutdown in Q1-2015

► 216K tonnes of aluminium* sold, up 9%

► 40K ounces of gold sold, up 3%

Operational

Highlights (Q1-16 vs Q1-15)

* Total sales by smelter including sales through Ma’aden and Alcoa as marketers and to the rolling company

Investment

► Ad Duwayhi commercialised April 1, 2016

► Capex of SAR 3,107 million spent in Q1 2016 mainly on the Wa’ad al Shamal (WAS) Project

► WAS progressing well and first WAS plant (ammonia) reached +92% completion by quarter end

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► Demand of Aluminium continues to grow

at ~5% in the next five years

► Global supply/demand balance

predicted to improve in 2016

► Supply of ~5 million tonnes taken out of

global market since the beginning of last

year which should help to stabilize

prices and potentially provide a price

floor

Aluminium

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► Smelter operations continue to be stable and we remain focussed on optimizing the efficiency of the

unit which is currently operating above design capacity

► Mine and refinery are ramping up well with the refinery now meeting full demand of alumina for the

smelter - goal is to stabilise refinery operations as soon as possible

► Rolling mill operations continue to ramp up production

► First autosheets delivered to Jaguar Land Rover in the UK for initial testing

Aluminium price 3M CS (US$/t)

Source: Bloomberg, CRU march 2016, MS 2016, secondary analysis

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

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Phosphate

► Demand for DAP continues to grow at

1.8% CAGR

► Shift of cost curve due to low oil price

increased the supply which in turn

impacted the current prices of DAP

► Currency depreciation at major

importing countries like Brazil and India

impacted demand

► Brazil demand remains volatile

► Good Phosphate performance delivered a 9% increase of phosphate fertilizers sales volume over

corresponding period last year.

► Ammonia plant continues to operate above its design capacity resulting in increased sales volumes.

► Beneficiation plant running reliably and meeting 100% of demand from phosphoric acid unit.

► Prices of DAP and Ammonia remained volatile during the quarter.

DAP Price Tampa Index (US$/t)

Source: Ma’aden SBU analysis, Bloomberg, CRU 2016 6

300

350

400

450

500

550

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Ad Duwayhi

► Commercial production at the Ad Duwayhi

mine announced on April 1, 2016

► Project completed within budgeted capex of

US$ 350 million

► Ma’aden’s largest gold mine with total

reserves (as at December 31, 2015) of 1.9

million oz of gold

► Production expected to average 180,000 oz

per annum over the 10 year mine life

► Work continues on the feasibility studies for

Mansourrah and Massarah

► Major milestone for Ma’aden which will

support our goal of reaching production of

500,000 oz of gold per annum

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Productivity and costs

► Initiatives begun in 2015 to increase productivity and to reduce our costs

► Benefits of these efforts now showing in our results

Cost of sales

Selling marketing and logistics

General and administrative

Key initiatives

► Increasing productivity and volumes across our

production facilities

► Reducing cost through:

► Efficiencies

► Higher throughput

► Re-negotiation of contracts

► Optimising sustaining capex

► Working capital and inventory management

Q1 2016

vs

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

vs

Q4 2015

EBITDA margin

-16%

► Programme now established to generate significant incremental cash-flows over the next 5 years

-8%

-10%

-16%

-50%

-34%

+5pp +10pp

Exploration and tech services -65% -72%

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Darren Davis Vice President, Finance & CFO

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261

(6)

169

2,744 2,659 2,273

942 776

898

387

182

303

Net income Attributable to shareholders’

of parent company

Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16

All number are in SAR million

Q1 2016

vs

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

vs

Q4 2015

67%

16%

374%

-

-17%

-22%

-5%

-36%

-35%

-15%

Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015

► Revenue decreased y-o-y mainly due to

lower commodity prices and a slight

decrease in aluminium sales.

► Despite the positive impacts of higher

volumes in Gold, DAP and ammonia

► Net income declined due to lower

revenue, net loss increase in SAMAPCO

and higher finance charges

Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015

► Revenue decreased q-o-q due to reduced

phosphate fertilizers and ammonia prices,

lower phosphate fertilizer sales volumes,

and increased financial charges

► Net income increased due to lower

inventory loss, increased cost efficiencies,

reduced loss in SAMAPCO and higher

income from investments

10

289

39

185

Net income

EBITDA

Operating income

Revenue

Key financial results

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Net income bridge – Q1-15 vs Q1-16

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► Negative impact of low commodity price was largely offset by increased volume and reduced costs

► Systematic reduction / postponed sustaining capex and exploration services brought additional

benefits

Others

SAR (20) mn Gross profit

SAR (123) mn Operating expenses

SAR 38 mn

289

-785

301

361

17 21

-45

25 185

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Gross profit SAR (40) mn

Others SAR 25 mn

Operating expenses SAR 161 mn

Net income bridge – Q4-15 vs Q1-16

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► Negative impact of low commodity price was largely offset by increased volume and reduced

costs

► Systematic reduction / postponed sustaining capex and exploration services brought additional

benefits

39

-299 79

180

132 29

-11

35 185

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Aluminium

► Q1 2016, has been a very good quarter

in terms of operational performance and

cost reduction. Our smelter achieved

lowest ever cost/tonne of aluminium.

► Produced and sold 216K tonnes of

primary aluminium from MAC

► Alumina refinery is ramping well and has

achieved ~80% capacity utilization rates

during Q1 2016.

► Targeting to achieve 100% captive

alumina use

► LME prices have declined sharply by

16% in Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015; which

impacted revenues and margins

13

` Production

` Sales

198

220 216

198

220 219

135

122

128

Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16

Aluminium sales – corp (‘000 tonnes)

Average LME prices (US$/t)

Aluminium (‘000 tonnes)

1,800

1,495 1,515

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Phosphate ► During the quarter, MPC recorded a 9%

increase in phosphate fertilizer sales at

600K tonnes compared to Q1 2015. First

quarter usually sees low demand in DAP,

declined by 19% compared to Q4 2015.

► External sales of ammonia in Q1 2016

increased by 348% at 206K tonnes

compared to Q1 2015. Due to a planned

shutdown in ammonia plant in Q1 2015.

► We have significantly reduced our cash

cost in both phosphate fertilizer and

ammonia and more efforts are underway to

optimize the costs further

► Phosphate fertilizer and ammonia prices

have declined by +30% in Q1 2016

compared to Q4 2015 which impacted

most of our margins

551

745

600 561

694 659

Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16

DAP (‘000 tonnes)

Ammonia (‘000 tonnes)

14

46

143

206 192

312 303.5

` Production

` Sales

482 421

366

472 422

326

` DAP Prices

` Ammonia Prices

Average DAP prices (US$/t)

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Gold and copper

► During the quarter, production increased

by 16% to 44 Koz and sales increased

by 3% to 40 Koz.

► Continuous efforts are underway to

reduce costs, with Ad Duwayhi

commercialization we expect the overall

cost will come down in coming quarters.

► The gold price has been steady for the

last few quarters

► Jabal Sayid produced over 7.3K tonnes

of copper in concentrate in Q1 2016.

Commissioning is progressing very well

and is expected to start soon.

1,209

1,069

1,192

Q1-15 Q4-15 Q1-16

Average gold prices (US$/oz)

39

42

40

Gold sales (Koz)

15

` Production

` Sales

38

42

44 Gold production (‘Koz)

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Finance strategy highlights

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► Optimizing capital structure

► Refocusing debt from project finance

► MPC refinancing was completed successfully

Cash and debt position (All numbers are in SAR billion)

43 44 45 45 53

34 36 38 32

42

44%

45% 47%

40%

48%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Total debt Net debt Net debt to capital

Available total liquidity of SAR 17.6 billion*

Liquidity = Cash and cash equivalent + short term investments + revolver credit facility * As on 31 March 2016

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Debt repayment schedule

17

190

633

873

1,006

1,150

1,298

1,751

2,111

1,246

1,373

1,672

834

589 575

288

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

MPC MAC MRC MBAC WAS MGBM MIC

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Key takeaways

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► Prices for aluminium and phosphate remain under pressure

► Our focus on operational excellence and cost controls have helped to offset this

► Our efforts are being accelerated with the aim of achieving further increased cash flow

over the coming 5 years

► Continue to ensure our major projects are completed to budget and schedule and to

bring into profitable commercial operation as soon as possible

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Q & A