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Early Warning System
on Natural Disasters
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5
21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC)
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SCOPE
Natural Hazards Affecting Malaysia
Early Warning System for Risk Management
Multi Hazard Early Warning System at MMD
Weather & Climate Extremes
Earthquakes & Tsunamis
Concluding Remarks
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Natural hazards affecting
Malaysia
Natural Hazards affecting Malaysia
Weather related Hazards
– Floods from heavy monsoonal rain
– Flash floods
– Severe thunderstorms / lightning
– Tropical cyclones / typhoons
– Strong Winds and rough seas
– Forest fires
– Severe haze
– Agricultural droughts
Geophysical Hazards
– Earthquakes
– Tsunamis
– Landslides
– Volcanic Eruptions
Severe Weather in Malaysia
Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mac)
Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)
Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)
Flood
Haze
Flash Flood
Strong Wind and Rough Sea
Among the Extreme Weather Events in Pen. Malaysia: 2005 - 2009
e.g.
The abnormal severe floods
over Peninsular Malaysia
during winter monsoon of
2006/2007 and 2007/2008
Among the Extreme Weather Events in Sabah & Sarawak: 2010 - 2011
Flashflood, Mukim Dalit,
Pensiangan, Jan 2011
Strong winds, Kanowit,
Nov 2010
Flood, Long Lama, Miri
Nov 2010
Flashflood, Kota Kinabalu
Mac 2011
Flood, Lahad Datu, 28 Jan
2011
Flood, Kidurong, Bintulu,
Jan 2010
Recent Severe Thunderstorm Event on 17 February 2011 in Petaling Jaya & Subang Jaya
Jalan Universiti,
Petaling Jaya
Sek. Keb. Methodist,
Sec 5, PJ
Jalan
Kewajipan,
Subang
Jaya
Among the Water Spout Events: 2006 - 2010
Kudat, 2006 Miri, April 2010
Jejawi, Perlis,
October 2010 Pulau Tioman,
June 2009
Tanjung Bungah,
Penang,
July 2007
Malacca, November
2010
Pulau Pinang, 2010 Bkt. Kriang, Kedah,
Mac 2011
Weather Extremes uring Southwest Monsoon
Jerebu, 1997
Sg. Sembrong,
2010
Kelantan, 2010
Sarawak, 2009
Muar, 2010
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Earthquake Activities
Around Malaysia (1959 ~ 2004)
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TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES
ON 26 DECEMBER 2004
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2
Phuket : 2.0 hrs
Langkawi : 3.0 hrs
Balik Pulau : 4.0 hrs
B. Feringghi : 4.4 hrs
Kuala Muda : 4.5 hrs
Jln. Gurney : 4.5 hrs
Bagan Datok : 5.5 hrs
Sabak Bernam : 6.0 hrs
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Earthquakes:
Plate Boundaries Southeast Asia Region
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Early Warning System for
Risk Management
risk management
crisis management
Reconstruction
Recovery Response
Impact
Assessment
Mitigation
Preparedness Prediction and
Early Warning
Disaster
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A weakness or failure in any one of these
elements could result in the failure of the
whole system.
FOUR main elements of
“People-Centered Early Warning Systems”
Dissemination
& Communication
Communicate
Risk Information
and
Early Warnings
Response
Capabilities
Building National
and Community
Response
Capabilities
Monitoring and
Warning Service
Develop Hazard
Monitoring and
Early Warning
Services
Risk Knowledge
Systematically
Collect Data and
Undertake Risk
Assessments
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Warnings must be produced
Warning message must be transmitted & received
Information must be understood
Information must be confirmed
Message must be believed
Risk must be personalised
Decision to take appropriate defensive and preparatory
actions
Resources and capacity for preparatory action
Early Warning Systems Requirements
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Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD
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Integrated
Early Warning System at MMD
Weather monitoring, prediction, &
warning
Sea state monitoring, prediction &
warning
Earthquake monitoring & tsunami early
warning system
RESPONSE CAPACITY COMMUNICATION & DISSEMINATION
MONITORING & WARNING SYSTEM
RISK KNOWLEDGE
People-centered Early Warning Systems
For Weather, Sea-State & Tsunamis
Malaysian Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Since 2005
TSUNAMI
FLOOD
SEVERE WEATHER
FOREST FIRE
VOLCANO
SMS & Cell Broadcasting
Fixed Lines Disaster Alert System
Siren
Printed Media
TV & Radio
MULTI-HAZARD
EARLY WARNING
CENTRE
AT MMD
DISSEMINATION
SMS & Emails
TV Crawlers (Hotline between MMD & RTM)
Mini TV broadcast studio at MMD
Telefax
Website
Fixed Line Alert System (FLAS)
Tsunami Sirens
WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM
Data Dissemination
Computer Processing
Facilities and
Forecasting Model
Weather Forecast
Warning
Mass MediaGeneral PublicPublic Organizations
Receive and Action
Ensemble prediction system
Multi-model and single
model ensembles
Deteministic models
Decision
support
system
Decision support
tools
Assesments
Observing
system
Satellite
In situ
Social
decisions
Economical
decisions
Environmental
decisions
Weather forecasts
Data
Data
assimilation
system
Security
decisions
End-to-end Weather & Climate forecast system require decision support tools to enhance applications
Import
ance
Day Week Month Season Year
Average Time Scale
Thunderstorms
Typhoon
Tropical disturbances
Intra-seasonal
2-Week 3-Month
El Nino/ La Nina
Predictability
of short &
medium-
range weather
forecast
Predictability
of seasonal
and yearly
forecast
Constraint: Short, Medium-range & Seasonal Predictibility
Future (<1.0 km) Existing (4-km res.)
T/flops ≡ Trillion
Floating Points
Operations per
Second
Local (sub-district) Level Weather Forecast:
Needs Very High Resolution Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) Modelling System
Tahap Semasa Keupayaan JMM Dalam Memberikan Perkhidmatan
Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCS)
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Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD
Earthquakes & Tsunamis
EARTHQUAKES:
MONITORING SEISMIC ACTIVITIES
17 seismic stations
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10 min
Timeline
TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
Coastal Points (99 points)
- Bathymetry water depth ~ 1 m Forecast Points (99 points)
- Bathymetry water depth ~ 50 m
Tsunami Modeling & Database
(Mw)
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Depth (km)
0
20
40
60
MMD also monitor the sea level at 37 sites in the
Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean
MNTEWC
TSUNAMIS: TIDE GAUGE
FOR SEA LEVEL MONITORING
17 Sites: transmission of
data every 1 min.
MONITORING (COASTAL CAMERA)
18 Sites
To improve weather & climate extremes, sea state and tsunami
early warning services for societal well being, we need:
Higher accuracy of weather & climate forecasts at local level;
shorter timeline with accuracy of tsunami warning after
earthquake occurrence;
awareness programmes (drills, table=top exercises &
awareness campaigns) for both tsunamis and weather
extremes;
better coordination between disaster management agencies;
and
Better risk assessments.
Concluding Remarks
Thank You