Early warning forecast of an oil spill bp deepwater horizon in the gulf
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Transcript of Early warning forecast of an oil spill bp deepwater horizon in the gulf
Early Warning Forecast of an Oil Spill:
BP Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf
Teresa Howard, Casey Dietrich & Corey Trahan
The University of Texas at Austin
Texas GIS Forum
October 27, 2011
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on May 17, 2010 at 1136 am CDT
NASA Terra MODIS May 17, 2010 at 1636 UTC
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
2.4-meter X-Band 4.5-meter X-Band 1.5-meter S/L-Band
UT Center for Space Research DBRS Antennas at West Pickle Research
Nearshore Oil Transport : Motivation Satellite imagery can only show current location of the slick
- Where will the oil move?
- What happens if a hurricane approaches?
Forecasts need to be accurate and fast
- Share computed circulation with NOAA,
other spill modelers
- Share oil transport with emergency managers
in real time ( http://adcirc.org/oilspill )
Nearshore Oil Transport : Methods WINDS
Provided by NCEP ( http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/ )
from WRF-NMM ( http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ),
downloaded and converted to our format.
CURRENTS Waves from SWAN ( http://swanmodel.sourceforge.net/ )
and circulation from ADCIRC ( http://www.adcirc.org/ ),
with currents provided hourly to the tracking model.
OIL TRANSPORT Waves from SWAN ( http://swanmodel.sourceforge.net/ )
and circulation from ADCIRC ( http://www.adcirc.org/ ),
with currents provided hourly to the tracking model.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS Animations posted online ( http://www.adcirc.org/oilspill/ ).
INITIAL CONDITIONS NESDIS ( http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/ )
provided slick extents, which were
digitized and provided to the tracking model.
Prepare oil slick for particle tracking
1. Obtain oil slick extent vector polygons from NOAA NESDIS.
2. Intersect oil slick polygons with water depth boundaries: near coast, < 100 meters deep above the continental shelf, and deep ocean waters (> 100 m deep).
3. Convert oil slick polygons to raster of 50 meter grid elements with attribute initial water depth interval.
4. Convert grid elements to point vectors
5. Calculate x,y coordinates in longitude and latitude.
6. Output ASCII initial particle location file.
Validation : Mid-June
Validation : Mid-June
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 13 / 1548 UTC
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 14 / 1151 UTC ( + 20 hr / + 0.8 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 15 / 1151 UTC ( + 44 hr / + 1.8 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 16 / 0140 UTC ( + 58 hr / + 2.4 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 16 / 1555 UTC ( + 72 hr / + 3.0 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 17 / 1150 UTC ( + 92 hr / + 3.8 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 18 / 1109 UTC ( + 115 hr / + 4.8 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 18 / 1637 UTC ( + 121 hr / + 5.0 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 19 / 0341 UTC ( + 132 hr / + 5.5 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 19 / 1730 UTC ( + 148 hr / + 6.2 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 19 / 2330 UTC ( + 152 hr / + 6.3 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 20 / 1150 UTC ( + 164 hr / + 6.8 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 21 / 1613 UTC ( + 192 hr / + 8.0 d )
06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2010 / 06 / 22 / 0348 UTC ( + 204 hr / + 8.5 d )
Validation : Hurricane Alex (2010) Made initial landfall in Belize
and tracked over Yucatan Peninsula
Strengthened in southern Gulf of Mexico to Category 2 storm before making landfall in Mexico
Limited useable satellite imagery
Validation : Hurricane Alex (2010)
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 06 / 29 / 0044 UTC
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 06 / 29 / 1546 UTC ( + 15 hr / + 0.6 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 06 / 29 / 2332 UTC ( + 23 hr / + 0.9 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 06 / 30 / 1155 UTC ( + 35 hr / + 1.4 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 06 / 30 / 2355 UTC ( + 47 hr / + 1.9 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 07 / 02 / 1156 UTC ( + 83 hr / + 3.4 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 07 / 02 / 1552 UTC ( + 87 hr / + 3.6 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 07 / 03 / 1156 UTC ( + 107 hr / + 4.4 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 07 / 04 / 1635 UTC ( + 136 hr / + 5.7 d )
06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06
2010 / 07 / 05 / 0008 UTC ( + 136 hr / + 5.7 d )
www.adcirc.org/oilspill
Oil transport project participants
JC Dietrich, CJ Trahan, CN Dawson Institute for Computational Engineering and
Sciences,
University of Texas at Austin
MT Howard, G Wells
Center for Space Research,
University of Texas at Austin
JG Fleming
Seahorse Coastal Consulting, Morehead City,
North Carolina
RJ Weaver, RA Luettich Jr
Institute of Marine Sciences,
Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
S Tanaka, JJ Westerink Dept. of Civil Engineering and Geological
Sciences,
University of Notre Dame
L Yu, A Lu Department of Computer Science,
Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte
K Vega, A Kubach
Texas Advanced Computing Center, University
of Texas at Austin
KM Dresback, RL Kolar School of Civil Engineering and Environmental
Science,
University of Oklahoma
C Kaiser
Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences,
Louisiana State University
RR Twilley
Vice President for Research,
University of Louisiana at Lafayette
Acknowledgements: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Institute of
Marine Sciences
University of Notre Dame Computational Hydraulics Laboratory
University of Texas Computational Hydraulics Groups, ICES
University of Texas Center for Space Research
Texas Advanced Computing Center, University of Texas
NOAA/NESDIS/Satellite Analysis Branch, Experimental Marine Pollution Surveillance Program
Seahorse Coastal Consulting
Funding for this work was provided by:
National Science Foundation TeraGrid
National Science Foundation RAPID Grant—Office of Cyberinfrastructure
Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate through the Center of Excellence for Natural Disasters, Coastal Infrastructure and Emergency Management (DIEM)
NOAA IOOS Program
And now for something
entirely different….
Photo by Frank Cianciolo Sr. Program Coordinator
McDonald Obs. / Bash Visitors Center
University of Texas at Austin
McDonald Observatory
April 23, 2011, at 2201 CDT
Texas Wildfires
Gordon Wells, Larry Teng,
Solar Smith & Teresa Howard
UT Center for Space Research
McDonald
Observatory
Landsat 7 ETM+ April 24, 2011 at 1221 CDT
SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2 Active Fire Front
Controlled Burn
Rock House Fire: Northern Margin (April 24, 2011)
NASA Terra MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1243 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Wildfires on April 15 at 1243 CDT
Wildfires on April 15 at 1243 CDT
NASA Terra MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1243 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Rockhouse
El Bonito
La Sabina
Wildcat
PK West
Pearce Ranch
Copper Mountain
Ranch
Frying Pan
Ranch
Wildfires on April 15 at 1243 CDT
NASA Terra MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1243 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Wildcat
PK West
Copper Mountain
Ranch
Wildfires on April 15 at 1419 CDT
NASA Aqua MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1419 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Wildfires on April 15 at 1419 CDT
NASA Aqua MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1419 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Wildcat
PK West
Copper Mountain
Ranch
McDonald
Observatory
Hobby-Eberly
Telescope
Area of the controlled
burn (4/23-24)
Active fire
front (4/24)
Rock House Fire
Burn Scar
Rock House Fire: Northern Margin Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper-Plus (4/24/11)
Landsat 7 ETM+ April 24, 2011 at 1221 CDT
Thermal/SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2 + 6
Rock House Fire on May 2 at 1217 CDT
Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper May 2, 2011 at 1217 CDT
SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2
Processed by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
McDonald
Observatory
Fort Davis
Marfa
Roper Ranch
Fire Burn Scar
French SPOT 4 HRVIR April 29, 2011 at 1205 CDT
SWIR/VNIR Channels 4,3,1
Collected by U.S. Air Force Eagle Vision
Processed by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Deaton Cole Fire: Google Earth Display SPOT 4 HRVIR (4/29: 1300) & Terra MODIS Firepoints (4/29: 1205)
NASA Aqua MODIS April 28, 2011 at 1508 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
April Burn Scars
Rock House
Deaton
Cole
Bonito
La Sabina
Last Chance
PK
Complex
Wildcat
Cooper
Mountain
Swenson Killough
Aqua MODIS Firepoints
September 9, 2011 at 1449 CDT
Collected by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Res., UT-Austin
Magnolia
Values = Fire Radiative Power in Megawatts
Riley Road/Crown Ranch Fire Burn Scar
Magnolia
French SPOT 4 HRVIR September 12, 2011 at 1155 CDT
SWIR/VNIR Channels 4,3,2
Collected by U.S. Air Force Eagle Vision
Processed by the MAGIC DBRS,
Center for Space Research, UT-Austin
Bastrop County Complex Fire GeoEye Ikonos-2 Pan/VNIR
September 8, 2011 at 1220 CDT
Texas Civil Air Patrol September 16, 2011 at 1140 CDT
Intact and destroyed residences in Tahitian Village,
Bastrop County.
Texas Civil Air Patrol September 16, 2011 at 1141 CDT
Residences destroyed by ground fire.
Texas Civil Air Patrol September 16, 2011 at 1144 CDT
Residence with a green yard destroyed
by ground fire.
http://magic.csr.utexas.edu/Event/11TxWildfires
John Nielson-Gammon,
State Climatologist
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2006
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2007
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2008
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2009
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2010
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NASA Terra MODIS
August 29, 2011
MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS
Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Sa
tell
ite
Th
erm
al D
ete
ctio
ns
NASA MODIS thermal detections (Fire Radiative Power >1 megawatt) in Texas collected by the MAGIC DBRS,
University of Texas at Austin
January - September Satellite Thermal Detections, 2002-2011