Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan Learning from Good...

11

Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan –

Learning from Good Practices

South Asia Hyderomet Forum By

M. Idrees Mahsud

Member (DRR), NDMA

Sequence

2

Hazard Profile and Disaster Management System in Pakistan

Early Warning Systems and Linkages with DM

System

Good Practices & Focus on DRR

Challenges & Priority Areas

3

Hazard Profile of Pakistan

Pak Flood Hazard Map

Flood 2010Flood 2011Flood 2012Flood 2013Flood 2014Floods 2010-2015

Cumulative Flood Extent

Flood Vulnerability

4

Flood 2015

Pak Cyclone Hazard Map

Cyclone Vulnerability

2010

Cyclone Phet

2007

Cyclone Yemyin

5

Pak Drought Hazard Map

Drought Vulnerability

6

Pak Avalanche Hazard Map

Avalanche Vulnerability

7

Pak GLOF Hazard Map

GLOF Vulnerability

8

Global Climate Risk Index

Long Term Climate Rate Index

9

CRI (97-2016)

Country CRI Score DeathsDeaths per

100,000 pers

Total Losses (USD

Millions)

Losses per GDPUnit %

Number of Events duringPeriod

1 Honduras 12.17 301.65 4.28 961.11 1.968 62

2 Haiti 13.50 280.40 2.96 418.77 2.730 72

3 Myanmar 14.00 7,097.75 14.55 1,277.86 0.694 43

4 Nicaragua 19.33 162.45 2.96 234.60 1.127 44

5 Philippines 20.17 859.55 0.98 2,893.41 0.611 289

6 Bangladesh 26.50 641.55 0.44 2,311.07 0.678 187

7 Pakistan 30.50 523.10 0.33 3,816.52 0.605 141

8 Vietnam 31.83 312.60 0.37 2,029.80 0.549 216

9 Thailand 33.83 139.60 0.21 7,696.59 0.967 137

10 Dominican Republic 34.00 210.90 2.32 243.53 0.262 49

Source: German Watch

Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan

Global versus PakistanDecadal Mean Temperature Trends

The mean temperature rise after 1950s over Pakistan is

twice as fast as the Global Mean Change

Period Global Pakistan

1901-2000 0.06 °C 0.06°C

1956-2005 0.12 °C 0.16°C

1971-2005 0.15 °C 0.26°C

1981-2005 0.17 °C 0.39°C

1991-2005 0.33 °C 0.74°C

2010-2039 0.7°C* 1°C

Increased Temperatures 2016 - 2035 (IPCC AR5)

10


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-17

Historical Disasters in Pakistan(Occurrence in Decade)

Avalanche Cyclone Drought Earthquake Floods

Landslides Hy Rains Tornado Windstorm

Flood – Most recurrent phenomena in Pakistan

11


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

19

50

19

55

19

56

19

57

19

59

19

73

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

81

19

83

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

94

19

95

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

48

8

37

8

31

9

30

1

23

4

5,1

34

68

4

3,4

85

33

8

2,2

27

29

9

13

4

75 8

58

3,0

10

84

3

37

6

10

,00

0

3,7

30

2,6

40

2,0

00

50

0

17

0Mil

lio

n U

S $

Flood Years

US$19,183 Million in 60 Years

US$ 19,040 Million in

6 Years Only

50% of total

direct losses during last

6 years

Historic Flood Damages – Pakistan

Total Direct Losses US$ 38,223 Million12

13

DRM System & Early Warning Mechanism

Disaster Management Structure as per NDM Act

NDM Act

NDMC

NDMA

Federal Departments

NDRF

Stakeholders

NIDM

PDMC

PDMAs

DDMAs

CommunityDistrict

Departments

Provincial Departments

Federal Level Provincial Level

Policy Formulation Prime Minister Sectt

Implementation

Disaster Management is a Devolved Subject

PMD/FFD F/G/S/PDMAs

NDMA

Federal Agencies,(Arm

y, Rescue 1122)

Provincial Line Departments

DDMA

Alerts(Warnings, Advisory )

District line Departments, tehsil & UC level local

Administration, Communities

Early Warning Dissemination

• Losses / Damages Data

• Rescue / Relief Data

• R&R Efforts

• Losses / Damages Data

• Rescue & Relief Activities

• Transboundary Water Flow Data• Satellite Imagery

• Imagery Analysis

• Relief Activities Data

• River Flow Data

• Canal Flow Data

• Dams Data

• Weather Forecasting

• Flood Forecasting

• Seismology

16

Sharing of Information

NDMA / NEOC

Federal / Provincial

Depts PDMAs /

DDMAs

Armed Forces

PCIW

UN / NGOs

SUPARCO

FFC

PMD / FFD

National Weather Forecasting Cen

(NWFC) Islamabad

Regional Meteorological Cen

Karachi


Lahore


Quetta


Peshawar

Flo

od

Fo

reca

stin

g D

ivis

ion

Lah

ore

(F

FD

)F

loo

d F

ore

castin

g &

Warn

ing

Cen

tre

Fo

r Lai N

ulla

h B

asin

Islam

ab

ad

Weather Forecasting Network of PMD

18


Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning

Centre

Regional Drought Centre

National Centre for Drought/

Environment Monitoring

19


1. Serve as a hub forthe collection,consolidation andanalysis of droughtrelated data

2. Prepare and issueweekly droughtmonitors & moisturestresses in differentregions of countrybased on variousindices

3. Advising governmentagencies on droughtrelated matters.

20

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFWS)

Good Practice of EW System

• Providing AccurateForecasting & EarlyWarning with FloodForecast lead timeof one to twohours.

• Public WarningSystem for the twincities

• Early Warning System is integral part of National DRM planning.

• Replication of Urban Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System

• Satellite based Integrated Flood Alert System for flash floods

• Early Warning based insurance mechanisms.

• Pakistan Resilience Partnership (PRP) for involving stakeholders including

private / corporate sector in DRM

• Tap on the opportunities for Trans boundary Early Warning Mechanisms

Futuristic Early Warning System

Focus on DRR

22

Average Impact of

Disaster

$1.2-1.8

Billion

0.5 - 0.8%

3 – 4%

Major Flood Event Impact (Forecasted)

$15.5

Billion

7%

40%

Annual Economic Impact

% of GPD

% of Federal Budget

Economic Impact of Major Disasters Since 2005

Source: Fiscal Risk Assessment Options for Consideration, A Study by World Bank and GFDRR, 2015

National DRR Policy 2013

24

Risk Knowledge

Risk Atlas

Risk Assessments

Database

Research

Prevention &

Mitigation

DRR – High Risk Areas

Resilient Development

Key Infrastructure

Risk Awareness

Preparedness

Multi Hazard EWS

National Capacity

Financing Mechanisms

National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)

25

NDMP – 2013 to 2022

Interventions : 10

Strategies : 41

Projects : 118

Revised Cost : USD 2040.90 M

Timeframe : 10 Years (2013-22)

NDMP – Financial Outlay

26

InterventionCost

US$ M*Responsible Organization

Establish Institutional & Legal System for Disaster Management 2.30 NDMA, PDMAs

Prepare Disaster Management Plans - All levels 3.00 NDMA, PDMAs

National Hazard & Vulnerability Assessment 24.00NDMA, PDMAs, GSP, ERRA, GCISC,

FFC, PMD, WAPDA

Establish Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Evacuation Systems 188.50PMD, FFC, SUPARCO, Provincial

Irrigation Department

Promotion of Training, Education & Awareness in relation to Disaster Management 64.30

NIDM/NDMA, Civil Defense, Provincial

Education Departments

Disaster Management Awareness 14.00 NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs

Infrastructure Development for DRR 1707.60 FFC, PID, Ministry of Ports & Shipping

Mainstreaming DRR into Development 1.20Ministry of Planning, Development and

Reforms, NDMA, PDMAs

Establish National Emergency Response System 31.00NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs, M/O IT, M/O

Information

Capacity Development - Post Disaster Recovery 5.00 NDMA, PDMAs

Total 2040.90

CHALLENGES & PRIORITY AREAS

27

28

Limited Capability of Meteorological Department

• Prediction of medium to long range forecasting – 7 to15 days

• Lacks in Quantitative Forecast of Extreme Events (2010 & 2014 floods)

• Accuracy in Seasonal Weather Prediction 50 – 60%

• No Upper Atmosphere Weather Data for Storm Tracking

• No Urban Flood Forecasting System except for Islamabad – Rawalpindi

Challenges for Disaster Management

Challenges for the Disaster Management

29

• Overlapping legal and institutional structures

• Vulnerability against floods till implementation of NFPP – IV

• Trans boundary Sharing of information

• Disaster Information Management System

• DM System at District Level needs further strengthening

• Micro level vulnerability Risk assessment needs to be completed at the

earliest for streamlining land use planning, future developments, need

assessment , allocation of resources etc.

Challenges for the Disaster Management

30

• Mainstreaming DRR into Development Planning and implementation

• Building codes implementation

• Retrofitting of existing infrastructure for DRR compliance

NDMA PRIORITIES

31

NDMA’s Priorities

32

• Legal and institutional Reforms

• Multi- Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessments at Micro Level (UC level)

• Enhance resilience capacity of communities through CBDRM, advocacy and awareness.

• Enhance early warning capacities for multi hazards

• Develop Disaster Management information System

• Capacity Building of the Government Officials

• Enhance Response and logistic capacities

• Focus on Gender Equality and Vulnerable Groups

NDMA’s Priorities

33

• Smart National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)

• Pakistan School Safety Framework

• Building Codes implementation

• DRM Services and Weather forecasting project with the support of World Bank – A major

investment initiative

• National Disaster Risk Management Fund – a permanent investment window for DRR and

Preparedness

• Risk Financing Mechanisms including Macro & Micro level risk insurance mechanisms

Thank you

34

Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan Learning from Good...

Documents

Transcript of Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan Learning from Good...