Early Warning and Response Analysis October,...

Released on October, 2015

Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected]

Early Warning and Response Analysis

October, 2015

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA

2 Early Warning and Response Analysis October, 2015

Contents

Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... 3

Early Warning and Response Summary for August, 2015 ................................................................................ 4

Weather Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 5

Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 7

Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................... 9

file:///F:/Application%20Data/Microsoft/Users/Chev/Documents/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/December%202011/Stefano/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/Sep%202011/EWR%20Analysis%20September%202011.doc%23_Toc303958565file:///F:/Application%20Data/Microsoft/Users/Chev/Documents/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/December%202011/Stefano/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/Sep%202011/EWR%20Analysis%20September%202011.doc%23_Toc303958565



ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food

Security Sector

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research

Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme



EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

In relation to the existing El Nino phenomenon occasional fall is anticipated over some areas

of northern, northeastern, eastern and central parts of Ethiopia. As a result flash flood and

overflow of rivers is likely in some areas the aforementioned areas, thus the concerned

personnel should take appropriate measures ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of

flood hazard.

Moreover the occasional rainfall would have negative impact on harvest and post harvest

activities in some lowland areas of Meher growing areas where the activities are normally

carried out earlier as compared to that of the highland areas. Thus, farmers are advised to

take precaution ahead of time in areas where crops are ready for harvest to minimize the

effect of the expected adverse weather condition.

The expected normal rainfall over south and southeastern lowlands would favor the

availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral areas.

Nationally, a total of 219,617 SAM cases were treated in TFP program between Januarys to

August 2015 and the August 2015 SAM cases increased by 32.5 percent from 32,304 in July

to 42,803 SAM cases in August 2015.

In Oromiya, the August 2015 TFP admissions dramatically increased by 67.5 percent from

16,667 caseload in July 2015 to 27,929 in August 2015 and about 63 percent of these cases

were reported from West Hararghe, East Hararghe and Arsi zones of the region.

Inadequate availability of TSF resource from WFP is delaying timely implementation/

The evolving nutrition situations in the regions require close monitoring with special

attention to Oromiya and Afar regions.



September 2015 weather conditions

Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of

September 2015

Source: NMA

During the month of September 2015, most parts

of Kiremt rain benefiting areas received falls

ranging from 25 - 405 mm of rainfall. Some areas

of western Oromiya and central parts of

Benishangul Gumuz exhibited falls greater than

300mm. Most parts of eastern half of

Benishangul Gumuz and parts of western

Oromiya experienced falls ranging from 200-

300mm. Western half of Tigray, northwestern

and southeastern Amhara, southwestern parts of

Benishangul Gumuz, parts of western, central

and eastern Oromiya, northeastern parts of

Gambela and northern parts of SNNPR received

falls ranging from 100 - 200mm. Central Tigray,

central and northeastern parts of Amhara, a few

areas of western and southern margin of Afar,

parts of central and eastern Oromiya, parts of

SNNPR, parts of northern Somali and parts

eastern half of Gambela experienced falls ranging

from 50 - 100mm. most parts of western and

southern half of Afar, northern Somali, some

areas of eastern and southern Tigray, parts of

central Amhara, northern parts of southern

Oromiya, parts of southern SNNPR, parts of

northern, central and

Southwestern Somali received falls ranging from

25 - 50mm. Most parts of Tigray, northeastern

Afar, southern parts of SNNPR, south and

southeastern parts of Somali and southern

Oromiya experienced falls less than 25mm.

Southeastern parts of Somali and southern

Oromiya experienced falls less than 25mm.

Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution

for September 2015

Source: NMA

As indicated in map 2, parts of western,

northeastern, eastern margin, southern and

southeastern parts of Ethiopia exhibited below

normal rainfall while the remaining parts of the

country received normal to above normal rainfall.



Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the

month of September 2015

Source: NMA

Pocket areas of western Oromiya, northeastern

SNNPR, parts of western Amhara received

rainfall in greater than 25 rainy days. Eastern half

of Benishangul Gumuz, western parts of central

Oromiya, northeastern SNNPR and parts of

western Amhara received rainfall in 20 - 25 rainy

days. Northeastern Gambella, most parts of

western half of Benishangul Gumuz, central and

northwestern Amhara, western Tigray, parts of

central SNNPR and parts of eastern Oromiya

received rainfall in 10 - 15 rainy days. Central

parts of Tigray, central and southeastern Amhara,

parts of central and eastern Oromiya, parts of

eastern half of Gambela and parts of central

SNNPR received rainfall in 10 - 15 rainy days.

Western half of Gambela, parts of southern

SNNPR, southeastern Oromiya, central and

northern Somali, northeastern Amhara, western

and southern Afar and southern parts of eastern

Tigray received rainfall in 5 - 10 rainy days.

Weather outlook and possible impact for the

coming month/October 1-31, 2015

Normally during the month of October, in relation

to the extension of southward retreat of the Inter

Tropical Convergent Zone (ITCZ), the rain

producing systems lose their strength from the

northern parts of Meher producing areas of the

country while the southern and southeastern parts

of the country will continue to get their second

seasonal rainfall. Nevertheless in relation to the

existing El Nino phenomenon occasional fall is

anticipated over some areas of northern,

northeastern, eastern and central parts of Ethiopia.

As a result flash flood and overflow of rivers is

likely in some areas the aforementioned areas,

thus the concerned personnel should take

appropriate measures ahead of time in order to

mitigate the effect of flood hazard. Moreover the

occasional rainfall would have negative impact on

harvest and post harvest activities in some

lowland areas of Meher growing areas where the

activities are normally carried out earlier as

compared to that of the highland areas. Thus,

farmers are advised to take precaution ahead of

time in areas where crops are ready for harvest to

minimize the effect of the expected adverse

weather condition.

During the coming month of October 2015 dry,

sunny and windy Bega weather situation expected



to prevail over the northern half of the country,

however due to the anticipated strong weather

systems some areas of northern, northeastern,

eastern and central parts of the country will have

unseasonal rainfall which is different from the

normal condition. Thus normal to above normal

rainfall is expected over most parts of Tigray,

Amhara, (the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, East

and West Gojam Zones, North and South Gonder,

Waghemra, North and South Wollo and Oromiya

Zone of Amhara), Afar (Zone 3 and 5),

Benishangul Gumuz(the whole Zones),

Gambela(the whole Zones), Oromiya Region(Illu

Ababora, Jima, East and West Welega, Horgudru

Wellega, the whole Shewa Zones of Oromiya,

Arsi, Bale, West and East Harargie, Harari, Dire

Dawa, Borena and Guji), Addis Ababa, SNNPR

(Kefa and Bench Maji) and Somali (City, Jijiga,

Fik, Deghabur, Liben, Afder, Gode, Korahe and

Warder Zones). Therefore, the expected normal

rainfall over south and southeastern lowlands

would favor the availability of pasture and

drinking water over pastoral areas. Near normal

rainfall is expected over SNNPR (Wolayta,

Guragie, Hadiya, South Omo, Sidama, Gamo

Gofa and Segen Peoples).

NUTRITION

Nutrition situation: The emergency nutrition

situation is routinely monitored at regional and

national levels by the ENCU of the DRMFSS by

collecting and analyzing different sources of

nutrition information such as TFP admissions and

ad hoc surveys.

Nationally, between Januarys to August 2015, a

total of 219,617 SAM cases with an average of

83.2 percent reporting rate were treated with

severe acute malnutrition in the country and it is

almost equal to the number of SAM cases treated

during the same time of 2011. However, the

number of SAM cases treated in the first eight

months of 2015 is higher by 6.5, 19.6 and 27.1

percent compared with the same reporting period

of 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively(fig.1).

Based on August 2015 monthly TFP reports from

the six regions (Afar, Amhara, Oromiya, Somali,

SNNPR and Tigray), SAM cases increased

significantly (by 32.5 percent) from 32,304

caseloads in July with 82.4 percent reporting rate

to 42,803 in August 2015 with 83.2 percent

reporting rates. Out of the 42,803 SAM cases

treated in August nationally, about 65 percent of

the cases were reported from Oromiya region.

Regional level, TFP admission increased in

Oromiya, Afar, Tigray and Amhara in the month

of August by 67.5%, 26.4%, 9% and 5.6%

respectively as compared with the July 2015

admission.

In Oromiya, the August 2015 TFP admissions

dramatically increased by 67.5 percent from

16,667 caseload in July 2015 with 82.4 percent

reporting rate to 27,929 in August 2015 with 88.5

percent reporting rate. About 63 percent of the

SAM cases treated in August in the region were



reported from three zones namely West Hararghe,

East Hararghe and Arsi zones. The August 2015

TFP admission increased by 131 percent

compared to the same time of 2014(i.e from

12,080 in August 2014 to 27929 in August 2015).

The situation is rapidly evolving in many woredas

of East and West Hararghe, Arsi, Bale, and West

Arsi zones of the region and requires special

attention. The increases were mainly associated

with the August active screening and referral

linkages at kebele level, poor food availability at

household level and also water shortages, etc.

Emergency responses are ongoing but it needs to

be strengthened and integrated further to bring

better impacts.

In Afar region, the August TFP admission

increased by 26.4 percent from 2074 cases in

July 2015 with 74 percent reporting rate to 2622

in August 2015 with 84.8 percent reporting rate.

April – August 2015 TFP data trend in Afar

region indicates that new admissions are relatively

increasing continuously from 1660 with 83.8%

reporting rate in May

In Amhara, the TFP admission has shown slight

increase in August (i.e. increased by 5.6 percent

from 3322 in July 2015 to 3508 in August 2015

with over 92 percent reporting rate in both months

and significant increases were reported from some

woredas Wag Himra, North Gonder, South

Gonder, North wollo, and South Wollo zones.

Slight increase of TFP admission also reported in

Tigray.

In SNNPR, the TFP admission has shown a

decreasing trend both in July and August 2015.

Availability of green maize, haricot beans,

cabbage and other short maturing crops in some of

the zones and also on-going interventions might

have contributed for the reduction in TFP

admission in both months. However, this year

admission is relatively higher as compared with

last two years and it is almost similar with that of

2012.

Challenges:

Delay in screening report in SNNPR,

Tigray, oromiya and Amhara (currently

on going) hindered the timely

commencement of targeted supplementary

feeding intervention in priority one

woredas. Additionally, inadequate

availability of TSF resource from WFP is

also delaying timely implementation.

Low TFP reporting rate from Somali

hindered national and regional level trend

analysis.



10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution of the number of admissions in CMAM in Ethiopia/ MOH-ENCU database/ Jan 2011 to August 2015

Fig.1 TFP admission trend from 2011- August 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Rep

ort

ing R

ate

Ad

mis

sio

n

ADMISSION Nb of TFP Mortality rate % Defaulter rate% Report completion rate %

Fig 2. Afar TFP Admission trend

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