EAST-WEST CENTERANNUAL REPORT 2004

East-West Center research activitiesare multinational and collaborativein nature, involving experts andinstitutions from the United Statesand throughout the Asia Pacificregion. The Center recognizes thatthe most urgent regional problemsare also global challenges and seeksto address U.S.-Asia Pacific partner-ships in a global context. TheResearch Program is organized intofour broad study areas: politics,governance and security; economics;environmental change, vulnerability,and governance; and population andhealth. Themes explored by residentand visiting fellows change dependingon research and policy needs.

AGING ANDINTERGENERATIONALTRANSFER

The elderly population is the mostrapidly growing demographic groupin the Asia Pacific region. In contrast,the number of children in the regionhas peaked and is beginning todecline. These demographic shiftswill have a pervasive effect oneconomic growth, generationalequity, family finances and govern-ment budgets in Asia, the Pacificand the rest of the world.

The East-West Center’s Populationand Health Studies Program and theCenter for the Economics andDemography of Aging at theUniversity of California at Berkeleyhave initiated a project in response tothese demographic challenges. Theproject team is developing a new

system of national accounting thatmeasures how families, governmentsand financial institutions shifteconomic resources across generationsfrom workers to children and theelderly. The framework is being used to study the macroeconomicconsequences of population aging,and to evaluate the implications ofpublic policy relative to retirementfunding, health care, educationreform and related issues.

The project is an internationaleffort that includes teams fromJapan, Indonesia, Taiwan, the U.S.,France, Chile and Brazil. TheHewlett Foundation has providedseed funding to support the work. A satellite program that will extendthe project to include China, India,the Philippines and Thailand isbeing established in cooperationwith the Nihon UniversityPopulation Research Institute inTokyo. Andrew Mason (EWC) andRonald Lee (UC-Berkeley) are co-principal investigators.

14

RESEARCH

“Throughout its history the

Center has sought to promote

equitable and sustainable

economic and social

development in the Asia

Pacific region through the

sharing of data, analysis and

best practices. Research is

fundamental to this process as

it draws together the realms of

academic inquiry and policy

formation.”

n Nancy Davis Lewis is director of the EWC Research Program.

LAND-USE CHANGES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Jefferson Fox, a senior fellow at theEast-West Center and specialist onthe environment, received a $550,000grant from the National ScienceFoundation. The funding supports a42-month project exploring theimpact of new roads and markets ontraditional land-use practices andlivelihoods in mountainous regions ofmainland Southeast Asia. The regionunder study is the road corridorrunning from Chiang Mai, Thailand,to Kunming, Yunnan, China. Thecorridor runs through NorthernThailand, Northern Laos andSouthern Yunnan. The region is richin biological diversity and harbors awealth of natural resources includingsignificant stocks of forest.

The project explores thedynamics and agents of land-usechange in Southeast Asia, tracing theimpact of these changes on people’slives and their environment. It alsoprovides the foundation for a long-term longitudinal study of land-cover and land-use change in aregion undergoing dramatic social,economic, political and environmentalchange. A multidisciplinary team ofeconomists, foresters, geographers,hydrologists and sociologists arecollecting economic, demographic,institutional and cultural data thatexplain how land-use practices areaffected by events such as changes innational taxation policies and thedevelopment of roads and markets.

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENTAND VULNERABILITY

The tragic loss of life and propertyassociated with the December 2004Indian Ocean earthquake andtsunami highlights the complex andclose relationship between nationaldevelopment goals and the ability toanticipate, prepare for, respond toand recover from natural disasters.Effectively managing the risksassociated with natural disasters is anessential component of an effective,long-term development strategy.

National governments,humanitarian relief agencies,development agencies and thescientific community have begun toexplore “climate risk management”as a framework for integratingclimate change in disaster manage-ment planning. A common elementof these discussions is the recognitionthat adapting to patterns of extremeclimate-related events promises toreduce vulnerability in the near-termand provide insights that will provevaluable in enhancing resilience tolong-term climate change.

Working with colleagues andpartner institutions throughout theregion, the East-West Center isengaged in a number of programs,projects and activities to develop andimplement a climate risk manage-ment program in the Asia Pacificregion. EWC contributions in thisarea last year included activitiesfocused on enhancing regionalcapabilities to anticipate and preparefor climate-related extreme events:

n A review of the first 10 years ofa Pacific Island program focused onthe development and use of El Niñoforecasts to reduce vulnerability inthe face of climate-related extremeevents.

n A two-week Pacific IslandTraining Institute on Climate andExtreme Events was conducted inpartnership with the University ofthe South Pacific and the NewZealand National Institute for Waterand Atmospheric Research.

15

SHIFTING TERRAIN

A two-year study of the domesticpolitics of the U.S. military presencein the Asia Pacific region was initiatedin January 2004 with $180,000 infunding from the Japan FoundationCenter for Global Partnership andthe Japan-US Friendship Commission.EWC Fellow Sheila A. Smith leads amultinational research team,including Patricio Abinales of theInstitute for Southeast Asian Studiesat Kyoto University, Masaaki Gabeof the University of the Ryukyus,Naoki Kamimura of Hiroshima CityUniversity and Katherine Moon ofWellesley College.

The “Shifting Terrain” projectfocuses on changing attitudes withinAsian societies regarding the U.S.military presence. It highlightsaspects of the military presence that have received little sustainedanalytical attention, offering acomparative cross-national studythat focuses on the U.S. presence asan issue of national governance withparticular emphasis on citizens’perspectives. The research team isparticipating in a series of in-countryworkshops, exploring the impacts of the U.S. presence on citizens,especially in local communities inJapan, South Korea and thePhilippines.

ECONOMIC ISSUES IN ASIA AND PACIFIC TOURISM

Last year, the Research Programinitiated a new project examiningthe economic importance of inter-national tourism and the futuredevelopment of the industry in theAsia region. Despite global eventsthat have adversely affected theindustry—including September 11,the SARS outbreak and the IndianOcean tsunami—tourism remainsone of the fastest growing sectors ofeconomic activity globally, providingmillions of jobs and much-neededforeign exchange to many Asian andPacific countries. As incomes riseand travel costs decline, the long-term growth prospects for tourismin the region remain strong.

In 2004 the East-West Centerbegan compiling a detailed databasefor examining long-term trends intourism and developing indicators ofcountry openness to overseas

tourists. Researchers collaboratedwith leading institutions involved inregional tourism and advancedproposals for outside financialsupport. A study on the impact oftourism development on the poor inVietnam received preliminaryfunding approval from the UnitedKingdom Department for Inter-national Development (DFID) andthe United Nations Economics andSocial Commission for Asia and thePacific. The tourism project had twooutputs in 2004: an overview paperon the measurement of tourism’simpact on the poor in developingAsian countries, and a paper estimatingthe effects of population aging onJapan’s outbound internationaltravel.

16

Senior Fellow Peter Xenosand Fellow Sheila Smithin conference with EWC students.

OTHER EAST-WEST CENTERRESEARCH

Politics, Governance and Security

China’s Capitalist Transition—social, political and economicchanges accompanying China’s moveto open markets.

China’s West: Implications forChina’s Development and RegionalIntegration—China’s ethnicentrepreneurs.

Natural Resources and ViolentEthnic Conflicts in the Asia PacificRegion—interdisciplinary study ofethnic conflict and resourcecompetition.

Party Competition and PovertyAlleviation in Asia Pacific—analysisof recent elections in India.

Economics

China’s International Trade—changes in China’s exports and tradepartners.

Trade Policy as a Promoter ofDomestic Policy—the case ofChina’s state-owned enterprises andthe WTO.

Asian Pathways to Innovation—including an examination of China’sintegration into global productionnetworks.

Institutional Change in Japan—theeconomic crisis and its potential formajor institutional change.

Miracles and Mirages in East-AsianEconomic Development—sourcesof and limits to East Asian economicgrowth.

Asia Pacific Energy Outlook—changing energy demand and supplystructures, energy security andpolicy.

Asian and US Liquefied NaturalGas Markets—Asia’s potential as aWest Coast supplier.

China’s Telecommunication MarketDevelopment—policy challengeswith changes in technology,competition, market structure andregulation.

Environmental Change,Vulnerability and Governance

Spatial Information Technologyand Society: Ethics, Values, andPractice—using new spatialinformation technology forcommunity-based resourcemanagement.

Air Pollution and Poverty—airquality management policies andtheir impact on the poor.

Energy, Climate and EnvironmentalPolicy—examining regionalemissions trading schemes in theEU, the U.S. and Canada.

Climate Change, ClimateVariability and Health in SmallIsland States—the relevance ofclimate forecasts for public health.

Population and Health

Family Change in Asia—currentfocus on rapid changes in roles andbehavior of young adults.

Population Momentum and Agingin Developing Countries—effectson health care systems.

Population Dynamics in SouthAsia—causes and consequences ofhigh fertility and infant/childmortality.

Is Globalization Good for YourHealth?—Asia Pacific perspectives.

17

For more information on EWC research, visit:

www.eastwestcenter.org/res-ov.asp

Research Fellows Arun Swamyand Tianshu Chu meet withSenior Fellow Jefferson Fox.