E science foster december 2010
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Open source modeling as an enabler of
transparent decision making
Ian FosterComputation Institute
University of Chicago & Argonne National Laboratory
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Wicked problem
Mess
Super wicked problem
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The “primitive equations” of atmospheric
dynamics
The Global Climate, J. Houghton (Ed), CUP, 1985, p41
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Model Nationality Open source ?BCC China
BCCR Norway
CCSM USA
CGCM Canada
CNRM France
CSIRO Aus
ECHAM Germany
ECHO-G Germany
FGOALS China
GFDL USA
GISS USA
INM Russia
MIROC Japan
MRI Japan
PCM USA
UKMO UK
Andy
Pitm
an a
nd S
teve
n Ph
ipps
, UN
SW (F
OSS
4G k
eyno
te, 2
009)
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Model Nationality Open source ?BCC China NoBCCR Norway NoiCCSM USA
CGCM Canada NoCNRM France NoCSIRO Aus
ECHAM Germany NoECHO-G Germany
FGOALS China NoGFDL USA
GISS USA
INM Russia NoMIROC Japan NoMRI Japan NoPCM USA NoUKMO UK
Andy
Pitm
an a
nd S
teve
n Ph
ipps
, UN
SW (F
OSS
4G k
eyno
te, 2
009)
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Model Nationality Open source ?BCC China NoBCCR Norway NoCCSM USA
CGCM Canada NoCNRM France NoCSIRO Aus Via license, never latest versionECHAM Germany NoECHO-G Germany
FGOALS China NoGFDL USA
GISS USA
INM Russia NoMIROC Japan NoMRI Japan NoPCM USA NoUKMO UK Via license, never latest version An
dy P
itman
and
Ste
ven
Phip
ps, U
NSW
(FO
SS4G
key
note
, 200
9)
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Model Nationality Open source ?BCC China NoBCCR Norway NoCCSM USA
CGCM Canada NoCNRM France NoCSIRO Aus Via license, never latest versionECHAM Germany NoECHO-G Germany A variant may be availableFGOALS China NoGFDL USA A variant may be availableGISS USA
INM Russia NoMIROC Japan NoMRI Japan NoPCM USA NoUKMO UK Via license, never latest version An
dy P
itman
and
Ste
ven
Phip
ps, U
NSW
(FO
SS4G
key
note
, 200
9)
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Model Nationality Open source ?BCC China NoBCCR Norway NoCCSM USA Yes – fully accessibleCGCM Canada NoCNRM France NoCSIRO Aus Via license, never latest versionECHAM Germany NoECHO-G Germany A variant may be availableFGOALS China NoGFDL USA A variant may be availableGISS USA Yes – fully accessibleINM Russia NoMIROC Japan NoMRI Japan NoPCM USA NoUKMO UK Via license, never latest version An
dy P
itman
and
Ste
ven
Phip
ps, U
NSW
(FO
SS4G
key
note
, 200
9)
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A Question of Balance, W. Nordhaus, 2008, p205
A subset of the DICE model
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Coarse-grained 64x128 (~2.8°) grid used in 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) studies
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ROO
USA
EUM
ROE
LAM
EIT
ROWW
IND
ANI
JPNCHNAOE
Oxford CLIMOX model
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Opportunities for improvementResolution: geographic, sectoral, populationResource accounting: fossil fuels, water, etc.Human expectations, investment decisionsIntrinsic stochasticityUncertainty and human response to uncertaintyImpacts, adaptation
Capital vintagesTechnological changeInstitutional and regulatory frictionImperfect competitionHuman preferencesPopulation changeTrade, leakagesNational preferences, negotiations, conflict
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Republicans: “According to an MIT study, cap and trade could cost the average household more than $3,100 per year”Reilly: “Analysis … misrepresented … The correct estimate is approximately $340.”Reilly: "I made a boneheaded mistake in an Excel spreadsheet.” Revises $340 to $800.
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Most existing models are proprietary
ADAGE (RTI Inc.)
IGEM (Jorgenson Assoc.)
IPM (ICF Consulting)
FASOM (Texas A&M)
Four closed models
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Community Integrated Model of Energy and Resource Trajectories for Humankind
(CIM-EARTH)
www.cimearth.org
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Center for Robust Decision making
on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP)
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Producer j solves:
Output
Materials Energy Kapital Labor
σO
σME σKL
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Basic producer problem
Utility
Widget1 Widget2 Gadget1 Gadget2
Each consumer:
Market :
σU
σW σG
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The Global Trade Analysis Project
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Fossil energy reserves
China
Sub S.Africa
WorldOil
U.S.
Brazil
Mid East/N. Afr.
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Difference from 2000 2010 cell coverage fractions
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Difference from 2000 2022 cell coverage fractions
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MODIS Annual Global LC (MCD12Q1)resolution: 15 seconds (~500m)variables: primary cover (17 classes), confidence (%), secondary covertime span: 2001-2008
Harvested Area and Yields of 175 crops (Monfreda, Ramankutty, and Foley 2008)
resolution: 5 minutes (~9km)variables: harvested area, yield, scale of sourcetime span: 2000 (nominal)
Global Irrigated Areas Map (GIAM) International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
resolution: 5 minutes (~9km)variables: various crop system/practice classificationstime span: 1999 (nominal)
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NLCD 2001resolution: 1 second (~30m)variables: various classifications including 4 developed classes and separate pasture/crop cover classestime span: 2001
World Database on Protected Areasresolution: sampled from polygons; aggr. to 10kmvariables: protected areastime span: 2009
FAO Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) resolution: 3 minutes (~5km)variables: various livestock densities and production systemstime span: 2000 and 2005 (nominal)
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Model evaluation
• Building time-series land cover products for validation
• Integrating ultra-high resolution regional datasets to improve models
• Gather multi-scale inventory data (county, state, nation) over 60 yrs
NLCD 2000NLCD 2005
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Wicked, messy problems
Need for transparency and broad participation
Open source!
Must encompass the entire modeling process
CIM-EARTH
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Acknowledgements
Numerous people are involved in the RDCEP and CIM-EARTH work, including: Lars Peter Hansen, Ken Judd, Liz Moyer, Todd Munson (RDCEP Co-Is)
Buz Brock, Joshua Elliott, Don Fullerton, Tom Hertel, Sam Kortum, Rao Kotamarthi, Peggy Loudermilk, Ray Pierrehumbert, Alan Sanstad, Lenny Smith, David Weisbach, and others
Many thanks to our funders: DOE, NSF, the MacArthur Foundation, Argonne National Laboratory, and
U.Chicago
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Thank you!Ian Foster
Computation InstituteUniversity of Chicago & Argonne National Laboratory