E-commerce markets expanding rapidly - Milken...
Transcript of E-commerce markets expanding rapidly - Milken...
E-commerce markets expanding rapidly
E-commerce sales as a percentage of total retail sales
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Percent
United States China
Sources: U.S. Census, www.100EC.com , Milken Institute.
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent change, year ago
E-commerce sales rising at much faster pace
Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics.
E-commerce
sales
All retail
sales
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Internet advertising revenue continues to grow
Annual revenue, 2003-2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US$ billions
Unit labor costs rise moderately United States
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Percent change, year ago
Energy prices have fallen, but still add to cost pressures West Texas Intermediate Crude
Sources: Commodity Research Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
US$ per barrel
Retail: prime rents surge in top markets
High street retail, 2012 Q4
Source: CBRE Research.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Washington D.C.
Hong Kong Paris New York LondonWestend
Munich Sydney Dublin
Percent change, year ago
Consumer spending recovery has been restrained U.S. real personal consumption expenditures
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent change, year ago
Consumers show signs of caution
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Sources: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan, ECONODAY.
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Index 1966Q1= 100
With more cautious consumers comes slower growth in sales
Total retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. Moody’s Analytics.
20132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Percent change, year ago
Auto sales are the brightest spot Light vehicle sales, United States
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
20132012201120102009200820072006
18
16
14
12
10
8
Millions, SAAR
U.S. households reduce financial debt obligations
Debt service payments as a percentage of disposable income
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody’s Analytics.
12100806040200
12
10
8
6
4
Percent
Mortgage debt
Consumer debt
Source: Federal Reserve.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Change, percent
U.S. consumer credit increases from 2009 low
Outstanding credit extended to household and personal expenditures
U.S. shows better retail sales
Retail sales by region, constant prices
Sources: Eurostat, Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K., U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Datastream, Milken Institute.
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent change, year ago
U.S.U.K.
Euro Area
Global middle class: Present and future
Middle class consumer spending
Middle class: all those living in households with daily per capita incomes between $10 and $100, adjusted for local purchasing power.
Source: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.
EU30%
U.S.21%
Japan8%
China4%
India2%
Other Asia9%
Rest of the world
26%
2009
EU14%
U.S.7%
Japan4%
China18%
India23%
Other Asia14%
Rest of the world
20%
2030
Source: OECD.
India and China make waves in the global middle class
Share of global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050
Source: OECD.
Spending by global middle class will nearly triple by 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2020 2030
US$ billions
“The consumer is not a moron.
She is your wife.”
---- David Ogilvy