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GLOBAL MEXICOMEXICAN ELECTION RESULTS

AND AFTEREFFECTS On Sunday, June 7 federal elections were held in Mexico to renew 2,006 governmental positions, with the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 9 governorships (Baja California Sur, Campeche, Colima, Guerrero, Micho-acán, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí and Sonora) as the key races. For the first time, the author-ity that organized and oversaw the process was the National Electoral Institution (INE, for its name in Span-ish), created to replace the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) after political constitutional reforms in early 2014. Ten political parties with national reg-istry participated, along with some independent candidates, which could do so for the very first time thanks to a 2012 constitutional reform. Also, over 47 percent of the electoral roll

took an active part in the process, a figure that places these elections as the third highest on mid-term voters’ participation through all the demo-cratic history of Mexico.Regarding the results, the midterm election somehow validated the na-tional project of Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration because his party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI),

CONTENTMEXICAN ELECTION RESULTS AND AFTEREFFECTS Pag. 1

MEXICO-EUROPEAN UNION, A BILATERAL RESUMPTION Pag. 4

“The Election somehow validates Peña Nieto’s

project”

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along with its allies, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the New Alliance Party (Panal), won a majority in the House of Representatives. This victory is key to the federal government, as the new legislature that will begin opera-tion in September, will approve the budget for 2016 and many of his structural reforms’ secondary laws.In Mexico, the conformation of the House is decided by two principles: 300 deputies are elected by direct suffrage and 200 by proportional representation. According to the electoral results, the LXIII Legislature will be conformed by the following figures: the PRI and its allies (PVEM and Panal) will have a total of 260 seats, with this they may approve legal reforms without the vote of other political forces yet, it is impossible to make constitutional amendments by their own since two thirds of the chamber is needed to do so; the second political force is the right wing with 108 deputies of the PAN; the left wing is left with a third place but with a political capital divided after Morena, the party led by former presi-dential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, diluted the PRD repre-sentation. These were the first elections in which Morena competed and it scored only 21 deputies and almost three percentage points less than the PRD, a party has represented the Mexican left in elections since 1988.The personas that will stand out in this legislature (2015-2018) are cur-rent party leaders, political operatives, former officials of Peña Nieto’s government and business representatives. In the PRI’s circle, its current na-tional leader, César Camacho, will be noticeable, as he’ll probably become the president of the party’s Legislative group. Also for the PRI the current general secretary of the party, Ivonne Ortega, and its late coordinator in

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the Senate, Enrique Jackson, will be eye-catching. On behalf the PAN, current party chairman Gustavo Madero and his predecessor, Cecilia Romero, will be the group’s leaders. Former party’s presidents Jesus Zambrano and Guadalupe Acosta will lead the PRD’s fraction. On the PVEM, the Legal Affairs and Human Rights in the Ministry of the Interior (Interior Ministry) sub secretary, Lía Limón, will standout. Some elected members of the PRI and PVEM have links with broadcasters, like Tristan Canale, former president of the National Chamber of the Radio and Television Industry (CIRT) and Grupo Salinas (TV Azteca) senior. Another case is Paloma Canales, former coordinator of Logistics in Televisa. Those who jumped from the government are David López Peña, the late Presidential spokeman; Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, former secretary of Agrarian Development and Mari-ana Benítez, Legal and International Affairs of the Attorney General of the Republic.Regarding the 9 governorships that were at stake, the PRI lost Michoacán, Querétaro and Nuevo León, but won Sonora and Guerrero; the PAN lost Sonora and regained Querétaro; and the PRD lost Guerrero but won Michoacán.The most noticeable outcome was Nuevo León’s governorship as a consequence of Jaime “El Bronco” Ramirez’s, an independent candidate, victory in arguably the most important state in the Election Day as it is home to the business hub of Monterrey. El Bronco had 48.9 percent of the vote, exceeding all polls’ expectations that use to give victory to PRI’s candidate, Ivonne Álvarez, who only obtained 23.6 percent of the vote. El Bronco’s victory summons the waves of social discontent for political parties.

AftereffectsIn GPS, after a continuous monitoring of economic issues and public finances of such states in times of campaign, we want to emphasize that the main challenge of the new governors will be the entities’ finances, whose perspectives are uncertain as many of the states that voted for governorships have serious fiscal problems. The outgoing governments lived two economical crises –the effect’s of the 2008 and the current one produced after the oil-prices drop-. In both crises, revenue fell, and despite the existing tools created to prevent it, such as the Oil Rev-enues Stabilization Fund, the negative effects of the current situation are not avoidable for long.

State Winner for 2015-2021 Former Governor 2009-2015Baja California Sur Carlos Mendoza (PAN) Marcos Covarrubias (PAN)

Campeche Rafael Moreno (PRI) Fernando Ortega (PRI)Colima José Ignacio Peralta (PRI) Mario Anguiano (PRI)

Guerrero Héctor Astudillo (PRI) Rogelio Ortega (PRD)Michoacán Silvano Aureoles (PRD) Salvador Jara (substitute)

Nuevo León Felipe Rodríguez “El Bronco” (independiente) Rodrigo Medina (PRI)

Querétaro Francisco Domínguez (PAN) José Calzada (PRI)San Luis Potosí Juan Manuel Carreras (PRI) Fernando Toranzo (PRI)

Sonora Claudia Pavlovich (PRI) Guillermo Padrés (PAN)

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May and June have been a couple of promising months to the bilateral relation between Mexico and the European Union as positive commitments were reached concerning the negotiations for the Global Agreement’s renewal. Since 2000, this document has framed both actors’ political, eco-nomic and trade relations and now, as President Peña Nieto stated in his most recent working trip to Brussels, Belgium, it needs to be updated in order to boost its potential while addressing the contemporary challenges both actors face. Mexico is one of the European Union’s Strategic Partners, and along with Brazil both are the only two Latin American

MEXICO-EUROPEAN UNION, A BILATERAL RESUMPTION

The total debts of the nine entities represent almost a quarter of the total country’s debt, mainly due to the weight of the debts of Nuevo Leon (approximately 4 billion dollars), Sonora (more than 1.3 billion dollars) and Michoacán (more than 1.3 billion dollars). These three together account for more than the 80 percent of the debt (7 billion), while the other six states together (Baja California Sur, Campeche, Colima, Guerrero, San Luis Potosi and Queretaro) represent less than 14 percent.The most complex case is Nuevo Leon, where El Bronco will gov-ern the second largest economy in the country, and the most in-debted one, with an opposition Congress. An important part of the income of Nuevo Leon, are pledged as security for debt. Broadly

speaking, accelerate economic growth and improve public security conditions to encourage investment are the main challenges for the new governors, especially El Bronco (Nuevo León), Claudia Pavlovich (Sonora), and Silvano Aureoles (Michoacán). In the aftermath, these elections, despite arriving with a complicated social mood, proved that Mexico is a true democ-racy that has power alternations, competitive elections and good electoral roll participation. Panoramically, the election marked a cycle shift for Peña Nieto, whom now faces the final stage of his administration and Mexico’s political figures are already unleashing the candidates for the presidential race of 2018. But wait! Before that, elections in 2016 will gather Mexicans again to vote for 12 governorships (Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, Sinaloa, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quin-tana Roo, Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, Veracruz y Durango). We’ll keep you posted.

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countries to have this distinction. As strategic partners, the ambitious instrument was designed in order to provide the framework needed to foster trade and cooperation on po-litical issues, human rights, democracy and development. According to Andrew Standley, Head of the European Un-ion Delegation to Mexico, investment from the European Union in Mexico accounts for 140 billion dollars and could increase in the upcoming years due to the country’s growth potential (Méndez, 2015). The European Union praises Mexico’s structural reforms and has recognized the coun-try’s importance in the global stage, both because of its economy and its role as a political actor. However, after 15 years the Mexico-European Union relation has evolved and both actors face new chal-lenges and opportunities. The European Union’s en-largement, its institutional reforms and the addressing of the Eurozone crisis along with Mexico’s structural re-forms, raise the need to up-date the legal framework of their bilateral relation. Furthermore, Mexico has already expressed its interest to be part of the momentum that has fostered the comple-tion of trade agreement between the European Union and Canada and efforts towards completing the TTIP with the United States. Mexico’s position encourages integration be-tween the European Union and North America as a whole.On early May, Cecilia Malmstrom, the European Union’s Trade Commissioner, announced that the European Union was ready to commit itself to a more ambitious agreement with Mexico and that she negotiations were to start on au-tumn. The European Union thus seeks approaching to North America’s economies and foster free trade across the Atlan-

tic (CNN, 2015). Later, on May 26th Finnish President Sauli Niinistö visited Mexico and signed several agreements on technology, energy and education. During Niinistö’s official visit, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto praised Finland’s support to update the Global Agreement between Mexico and the European Union.All of this was summed up in the Seventh Mexico-EU Bi-lateral Summit held on June 12 in Brussels, on which Peña Nieto focused on the expansion and modernization of

the agreement as a demon-stration of the Mexican gov-ernment’s commitment to strengthen the relationship. It concluded with the so-called “Joint Vision Study”, a document that the Euro-pean Commission requires to continue an internal pro-cess and subsequently ob-tain a mandate o negotiate with Mexico. The report also draws lines to incorporate new issues such as electronic commerce, trade facilitation, energy and sustainable de-velopment.

According to the Mexican Ministry of Economy, this nego-tiation could begin in the last quarter of 2015. On his be-half, President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, agreed that the modernization of the Global Agreement would strengthen the partnership and political-commercial integra-tion. President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker, expressed that the General Affairs Council will pro-ceed with negotiations on June 23, after the pronounce-ment of the European Court of Justice for a similar project with Canada.Mexico has the opportunity to be involved in what prom-ises to become the largest free trade zone in the world, as the most dynamic regional blocks begin their economic

“... the bilateral legal framework needs to be updated...”

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REFERENCESGonzález, R. (05.208.2015). Acuerdo con la UE incluirá el tema energético: Bruselas. El Financiero. Retrieved from: http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/mundo/acuerdo-con-la-ue-incluira-el-tema-energetico-bruselas.html

Méndez, K. (03.26.2015). En México existe un potencial para aumentar la inversión: Unión Europea. Excélsior. Retrieved from: http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2015/03/26/1015748

México y la Unión Europea buscan un nuevo pacto comercial. (05.12.2015). CNN Expansión. Retrieved from: http://www.cnnexpansion.com/economia/2015/05/12/mexico-y-la-union-europea-buscan-un-nuevo-pacto-comercial

Notimex. (05.27.2015). Peña Nieto acudirá a Cumbre en Bruselas; visitará Italia. Excélsior. Retrieved from: http://www.excel-sior.com.mx/nacional/2015/05/27/1026303

Saldaña, I. (05.28.2015). UE confirma actualización del Acuerdo Global con México. Excélsior. Retrieved from: http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2015/05/28/1026500

Sánchez, E. (05.26.2015). México y Finlandia renuevan relación. Excélsior. Retrieved from: http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2015/05/26/1025904

integration. Furthermore, the inclusion of energy issues and further cooperation on human rights demonstrates that the country’s structural reforms have contributed significantly to enhance Mexico’s role as a strategic partner and the fed-

eral government’s foreign policy has successfully proved that Mexico is a responsible global actor and a reliable partner in order to deal with common issues.

Global Policy Strategies, LLC is an international strategy and political consulting firm that represents public and private interests abroad, designs strategies to influence the global milieu, as well as transforms information into political intelligence in order to act in instances of critical decision-making in the global arena. The information provided in this political analysis is exclusively for general background research and does not offer advice on any particular issue nor represents the position of any of our clients. The content of this analysis may be reproduced or transmitted with the appropriate citing of Global Policy Strategies, LLC. If you are interested in being added to our delivery list, please contact us at globalmexico@globalpolicystrat.com.

Global Mexico is produced by: Carlos Camacho Gaos, Carlos Camacho Dávalos, Javier Martínez, María del Mar Lamas and Rebecca Flores-Leinfelder. Editorial Board: Global Policy Strategies Board.

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