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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

AND TECHNOLOGY (IJCIET)

ISSN 0976 – 6308 (Print)

ISSN 0976 – 6316(Online)

Volume 4, Issue 1, January- February (2013), pp. 205-222

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DYNAMICS STELLA MODELING FOR ACCELERATING

SUSTAINABLE LANDUSE DEVELOPMENT

M. Lakshmi

Upgraded HOD/Civil Engineering,

Dr. Dharmambal Government Polytechnic College

Chennai, Tamilnadu, India

Email Id: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Chennai city is located in southern part of India and it is the fourth largest, fifth most

populated metropolitan city in India. According to Forbes magazine, Chennai is one of the

fastest growing cities in the world. According to the provisional population results of 2011,

the city had a population of 46.81 lakh with a density of 26 persons/ha. The city registered a

growth rate of 7.8% during the period 2001–2011. The population of the metropolitan area is

estimated to be more than 9.24 million. In this paper aim is to regulate the growth of the

Chennai in an orderly manner for the present and the foreseeable future, in this work make an

attempt to emphasis importance of guided development in fringe areas of Chennai using land

use characteristics of Chennai and its periurban areas Nawaz N(2009) in southern corridor

using System Dynamics Stella model approach is proposed.

Keywords: Periurban, Suburban, Sustainable

1. INTRODUCTION

In the Inventory of World cities from the Globalization and World Cities Research Network,

Chennai's level of network integration with other world cities is ranked as a "Beta”. This

organization ranks the cities of the world based on various factors including their economics,

connectivity, and cultural influence. Land uses at the fringes of metropolitan cities such as

Chennai are forced to undergo a process of transformation, seamlessly, due to various

politico-socio, economic and technological developments taking place. The basic difference

between city and suburban is one of socio-economic levels. The cities attracting big

businesses and offering expanded employment opportunities. Chennai experienced

significant differentials in the growth of its core area as compared to its periphery. This is

revealed by the highest growth rates of the whole urban agglomeration as compared to those

of the Municipal Corporation area (the core area) alone: 2.23% per year as against 1.59%

during the 1981-91 decade, and 1.70% per year as against 0.93% during the 1991-2001

decade. However, rapid population growth in cities is a cause of serious concern as these

cities tend to be markedly underserved when it comes to housing, transportation and other

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M. Lakshmi


civic services. It has been argued that the mega cities have been receiving much of the

development focus to the detriment of other cities, where conditions have been deteriorating.

1.1. Concept of Periurban Development

Periurban areas refer to the settlement beyond, about or around cities. Peri urban areas are

some form of transition from strictly rural to urban. These areas accommodate spillover

developments of the core cities. The formation of periurban areas is an inevitable

consequence of urbanization. As the cities expand, the surrounding periurban areas also

grow. This means that the nature of the periurban interface is one of constant change leading

to a variety of livelihood and natural resource problems specific to the periurban interface.

The periurban settlements and the core cities have very strong interactions, inter-dependence

and interrelationships Umadevi. G(20020.

1.2. System Dynamics using Stella

System Dynamics Rathakrishnana R(2002) is a methodology whereby complex, non –linear

interactions in social systems can be understood and analyzed and new structures and policies

can be designed to improve the system behaviour. System dynamics Vishnu Vardhan J(20090

is the result of cross-fertilization among elements of traditional management, feedback

control theory and computer simulation. According to Jay.W.Forrester, the originator of the

subject, „System Dynamics is a theory of structures and behavior of system‟. System

Dynamics is the result of 'Cross-Fertilization' among elements. They are Traditional

management, Feedback control theory, Computer simulation. System Dynamics presents

systems approach and prescribes a coherent set of steps for conducting a system inquiry.

1.3. Need for the Study

The growth in periurban area is very rapid, land use changes occur in a large scale from

agriculture to residential and commercial. As of 2011 census, the Chennai city had

4.6 million residents making it the sixth most populous city in India; the urban

agglomeration, which comprises the city and its suburbs, was home to approximately

8.9 million, making it the fourth most populous metropolitan area in the country. The

population of Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) is estimated to reach about 12.5 million by

2026. Majority of this increase is expected to settle in suburban and periurban areas as the

city is already reaching saturation. As of 2001 census, the population growth rate of periurban

areas of Chennai is around 3.5 compared to the city growth rate of around 1.25. Unregulated

growth, haphazard developments and inadequate infrastructure facilities are synonymous

with periurban areas of Chennai. It is imperative to develop the proper plan for periurban

areas so as to achieve sustainability in a long run. This would prevent the periurban areas

becoming another chaotic centre in future.

1.4. Objectives

To study the trend in residential land use development for Chennai city and its Periurban

areas in southern corridor. To predict the population and residential land use for future

scenarios. To suggest appropriate scenario / policies for removing the existing bottleneck in

the system.

1.5. Scope of the Study

The polarization of population in Chennai city has its spillover effect and changes the

morphology of the surrounding urban space. The urban agglomeration of Chennai

experienced significant differentials in the growth of its core area as compared to its

Dynamics Stella Modeling for Accelerating Sustainable Landuse Development


periphery. The Chennai city registered a growth rate of 11.1% as compared to 19.8% for the

urban agglomeration area as a whole during 1991-2001 census decades. The rest of the

metropolitan area (urban agglomeration area minus the city area) experienced a decadal

growth rate of 41%.Labor costs are cheaper by 20 to 30 %, compared to other saturated cities.

Therefore, talent is available and attrition level is also low. Lack of proper transportation and

other infrastructure facilities in the periurban areas leads to people migrating to places with

proper transportation facilities and other infrastructure facilities.

To regulate the growth of the metropolitan area in an orderly manner and also to ensure

its economic viability, social stability and sound management for the present and the

foreseeable future, this paper make an attempt to emphasis importance of guided

development in periurban areas of Chennai using land use characteristics of Chennai and its

periurban areas in southern corridor using System Dynamics approach.

2. RELATED WORKS

Several studies have been conducted to study trend of periurban areas and land use pattern of

cities. It is time to look back at the past to know what has been achieved and what new

techniques have been developed so far. Thus related works in this field of study have been

reviewed and are presented below.

2.1. Periurban - A Comparison between Indian and Western Countries

This paper compares the Indian city development with urban development of Western Europe

and United States. The increase of transport supply is a precondition and one of the main

driving forces for periurban development (F kolbl and Reinhard Haller, 2005). A distinction

can be found in the socio-economic groups which generate periurban development or

suburbanization. Whereas in the Europe and United States, periurban development is clearly

a phenomenon related to the affluent middle-class, in India, it is due to the migration of

economically underprivileged. It is observed that the spatial expansion of the Indian cities is

more pronounced along urban arterials and along roads in particular. These roads change the

patterns of city growth from circular (as observed in western cities) Robin et al (2005) to

linear (as observed in Indian cities).Travel patterns are quiet different in India and Europe

and United States. While commuting trips in metropolitan area are fairly short-80% of trips

do not exceed 5 km, whereas the average commuting trip in Europe and United States is in

the range of 10-20 km. The policy recommendations are to reduce travel distances, travel

time and the share of car travel and provide attractive land use alternatives to suburban living,

to increase urban density or mixed land use for the long run, to prevent the development of

not spatially integrated large retail and leisure facilities.

2.2. Planning for Urban Periphery of Chennai

Spatial planning strategies are necessary in the planning process because each land use is not

independent of each other but interdependent. Sridhar. M (2003) has studied the defects in

planning system and brought about the present status of periurban areas in this study. The

objectives were to find out the pattern and direction of growth in the urban periphery, to

assess the change in the physical structure (land use) of urban periphery of southern Chennai

to analyze the impact of change in the physical structure on the social and economic

characteristics of the people in the selected neighborhood in the urban periphery of south

Chennai. Major growth was observed along Transport corridors. The southern part of

Chennai had more dominant developments. Investment in these areas was more in the

institutional and industrial sectors. There is a wide scale impact because of the IT corridor in

the periurban development. Most of the periurban areas lacked necessary amenities.

M. Lakshmi


2.3. Pattern of Development on the Metropolitan Fringe

This paper has examined the socioeconomic composition and structure of such urban fringe

settlements, using three sets of household surveys undertaken in Bangkok (Thailand), Jakarta

(Indonesia) and Santiago (Chile).This paper reviews how to best characterize settlements on

the metropolitan fringe of developing countries(John.O.Browder ,1995).The objective was to

examine the socioeconomic composition and structure of urban fringe settlements and to

identify and examine the economic activities pursued by metropolitan fringe residents and

employment patterns. Informal economic activity exists, but it is not significant.

Table 1 Migration Patterns of Jakarta, Santiago and Bangkok

City Rural to urban

(in numbers)

Interurban

migration

(in numbers)

Intra metropolitan

migration

(in numbers)

Jakarta Nil 17 50

Santiago Nil 62 1

Bangkok 2 26 28

Most fringe residents had moved from other neighbourhoods within the capital city rather

than from rural settlements. Table 1 describes the migration patterns observed in the study.

The findings reveal that the metropolitan fringe areas are to be populated mainly by middle

and lower-middle-income households formally employed in service occupations. Linkages to

rural areas and to agriculture are largely absent; the fringe is spatially and functionally well

integrated into the metropolitan economy. The paper recommends that foreign-assistance

program officers and local planners resist global “common themes” or approaches to develop

planning unique to metropolitan fringe areas.

2.4. Dynamics in Periurban Areas and their Implications on Urban Growth

This paper made an attempt to provide a detail base for orderly development of periurban

areas. The objective of the study (Sengupta B.K, 2007) was to enable practical, affordable

planning and infrastructural developments capable of ultimately meeting the minimum

requirements of local authorities. Land banking must be promoted to meet future land supply

demand. Land markets are enabled to work as the prime method of the land and housing

delivery in periurban areas accounting for the need to protect poor. Basic planning must be

introduced to guide development. Infrastructure to be introduced on cost recovery basis.

Implement a macro structure plan for urban expansion and assist local authorities in the

planning of micro developments within their geographic areas of authority Irwin et al(2003).

The periurban authority would have jurisdiction over all the land that is not presently within

urban boundary.

2.5. Periurban Development in Thiruvananthapuram City

Due to the nearness of the urban centers and the easy availability of the infrastructure

facilities even in rural areas there is practically no push factors to urban areas from rural

areas(Kaladharan T.V, Masoom M.A, 2007). The fast urbanization trend noticed in Kerala is

not due to the rural to urban migration, but rather due to the transformation of the rural areas

due to occupational shift. Their objective was to identify the impact of IT related industries

on fringe area or the periurban areas and identify techniques of land assembly/land

procurement Lele M.D(2006) .

Transferable Development Right (TDR) is a recent innovative land assembly technique

introduced by Maharashtra state for cities having 2 lakh and above population. In

Transferable Development Rights concept, the potential of a plot of land identified as



intensity of built-space, guided by Floor Space Index (FSI) has been separated from the land

itself and make available to the land owner in the form of TDR to be utilized by them from an

inner zone to a outer-zone specified by regulations in the proposed Town and Country

Planning Act, Kerala. Accommodation Reservation karthik et al(2011)is another concept

which allows the land owner to develop the sites reserved for an amenity in the development

plan using full permissible FSI on the plot subjected to agreeing to entrust and handover the

built-up area of such amenity to the local body free of all encumbrances and accept the full

FSI calculation. Reservation such as retail market, dispensaries, etc. can be implemented by

this way wherein local authority is not required to acquire the land by incurring expenditure

on payment of compensation.Policy of containment is not possible because of the pressure on

land due to the various developments. So the best strategy to develop periurban areas is trend

based development.

2.6. Guided Development in Ottawa

This paper has examined the guided development in Ottawa, the capital of Canada. In 1974

the RMOC (Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton) released its first official plan. It

envisioned a dominant central core with high-capacity bus-only roads radiating out along five

corridors. The Transit way was used to guide growth in Ottawa's suburbs. Most new housing

was built in districts that were contiguous with suburban centers so as to avoid inefficient

leapfrog growth (Miketoronto, 2008).A key feature contributing to the success of the Transit

way is its ability to be implemented in increments. The Ottawa Transit way is North

America's largest bus way, and also the busiest bus way network in the world. At present,

Daily ridership is over 240,000 riders. A bus will commonly operate on the high speed trunk

line out of the city, and upon reaching a suburban neighborhood it will branch off and

become a local bus. This express service eliminates transfers and accounts for the majority of

bus patronage. The Ottawa Transit way is world renown and planners from around the world

have come to Ottawa, to see how Ottawa has become the city with the highest bus usage in

North America for a city in the one million metro mark.

2.7. Significance of Floor Space Index in Mumbai

Mumbai is the capital of one of the most industrialized states. In 1975, Mumbai's population

was 7 million. In 2011, the city has nearly 30 million and people are running out of space to

live. (Philip D Antony, 2011).The average FSI imposed on Mumbai's residents is also the

lowest in the world for a city of this size. Even today the FSI in South Mumbai is 1.33 and in

the suburbs it is 1.0. The Concept Plan for Mumbai 2052 envisages a higher average FSI of 5

in the inner city, 3 for the suburbs and 3 in the 'hinterland'. It also envisages further

concentration of the central business district by providing more FSI of up to 14, starting with

Nariman Point. Mumbai is already the densest city in the world; it has the least open public

spaces for its inhabitants, with about 100 lakh living in slums. Public transport is totally

inadequate, so much so that there are nearly 4,000 fatalities on the suburban railway system

every year. Mumbai being an island city there is little scope for horizontal expansion, vertical

is the only way to meet the current demand. In order to meet the increasing demand a rise in

FSI will facilitate speedy growth and development of real estate.

2.8. Sao Paulo Periurban Dynamics: Some Social and Environmental

Consequences

There is a great hope that the decline rate of population growth in Sao Paulo metropolitan

area would positively impact the metropolitan area, reducing the need for public investment

in urban infrastructure and social policies. Rate decreased from 4.55% to 1.7% over 20 years.

M. Lakshmi


However a sustainable population has not been reached in the city. This is because of

decrease in population in the city, but increasing in the periurban areas, which is up to

6%.The objective (Harold Torres et al, 2007) was to understand the evidence of urban sprawl

and impact of land use transformation on environment. Sao Paula has 21 municipalities; the

demographic growth of this region is unevenly distributed. While in the central areas

population gets decreased, the fringes are growing fast. The area present in outer ring of the

region has a growth rate of 5%. Over the past seven years, private investments in 7.5

thousand residential projects, including nearly 400 thousand residential units, 3 million

square meters of area and 100 billion dollars investment.25% of city‟s households are in

shanty town and illegal haphazard developments. In suburbs the percentage of population

living in shanty towns and illegal settlements are 15.5% and 17.4%.

2.9. Inference from Literature Review

From the literature review, several observations were made. Periurban areas are rapidly

growing and this growth must be regulated by providing provisions such as The Innovative

concepts such as Accommodation Reservation and Minimum lot zoning restricting higher

density developments orient the development towards optimum density. Detailed planning

and regulations must be devised for periurban areas. Increase in FSI is generally, good for

places like Mumbai where there is scarcity of land and the prices are very high. Transferable

Development Rights can be proposed in the case of road widening to attract development.

The state has to take proactive measures and put in place and institutional framework for

regulating land use development. The Transit way should be encouraged to guide growth in

suburbs in order to avoid development tin a haphazard manner.

3. METHODOLOGY

3.1. Introduction

Chennai, the capital city of Tamil Nadu is the fourth largest Metropolitan City in India.

Chennai Metropolitan Authority comprises the area covered by Chennai City Corporation

(176sq.km) and 16 municipalities, 20 town panchayats and 214 villages forming part of 10

panchayat unions in Tiruvallur and Kancheepuram Districts and extends over 1189sq.km.The

study involves developing land use model for Chennai city and its periurban areas in southern

corridor. The objective of study is to predict future residential land use for various scenarios

ensures sustainable development. Review of literature carried out so far gives the framework

for the study methodology. The pictorial representation of study methodology is represented

in Fig 1.The data collection includes population data and land use data for the study area.

Using these data, Land use model and Population model is developed for the study area. Based

on these models, land use trend for residential area using Floor Space Index is predicted for

future. The growth rate of land use development for various scenarios is predicted for horizon

year 2026. The density pattern indicate that the city has the highest density of 247 persons/ha,

whereas the average density in CMA is only 59 persons/ha as per census 2001.The density in

the municipal areas and special village panchayats is very low, indicating that these areas

offer tremendous potential for growth and would be the receiving residential nodes in future



Identification of Problem

Review of Literature

Selection of Study Area

Data Collection (Secondary Data)

Population Data

Land Use Pattern

Growth Dynamics of Land Area

System Dynamics Model Development

Model Calibration

Scenario Analysis

Recommendations

Model Behaviour and Evaluation

Result and Inferences

Figure 1 Study Methodology

3.2. Selection of Study Area

The areas selected for the study are Chennai city (Study Area I) and its periurban areas in

southern corridor (Study Area II). The periurban settlements selected for the study are

Agaramthen, Arasankalani, Injambakkam, Jaladampettai, Karapakkam, Kasapapuram,

Kottivakkam, kovilambakkam, Kulapakkam, Kulathur, Madipakkam, Maduraipakkam,

M. Lakshmi


Medavakkam, Meppedu, Mulacheri, Muvarasampattu, Nanmangalam, Nedunkundram,

Neelankarai, Okkiyam Thuraipakkam, Ottiyambakkam, Palavakkam, Perumbakkam,

Perundavakkam, Puthur, Semmancheri, Sittilapakkam, Thirusulam, Thiruvancheri, Uthandi,

Vengaivasal and Vengambakkam. The development of these periurban areas are greatly

influenced along transport corridors in southern parts of Chennai. The settlements selected

for the study are greatly influenced along road transport corridors such as East Coast Road,

Great Southern Trunk (NH 45) and Old Mahabalipuram Road. Since the corridors are served

by road transport the development is found to be faster. The following basic criteria are

used to classify an area into the periurban category:

Density>=400persons/sq km.

Literacy >=75%

Total male work force >=50%

The ratio between non agricultural workers and total workers >=75%

Agricultural work force <=5%

The distance of settlement from the city should be <=25km

The distance of the settlement from the nearest rail or major corridor <=2km.

Figure 2 Location Map of Study Area I (Chennai city)



Legend

Study Area II

Figure 3 Location Map of Study Area II (Periurban areas)

M. Lakshmi


Figure 4 Land Use Map of Study Area I and II

4. LAND USE PATTERN

Together with population growth and density trends, land use is another key determinant of

predicting land use patterns. The overall land use patterns of the Chennai Metropolitan Area

are a dense center district with radial development along principal transportation corridors.

The average number of dwelling units per hectare of residential area per zone increased over



the CMA from 66 in 1971 to 104 in 2001.This is consistent with the increase in gross density

during the same period. However, in the city‟s core (within 5 kilometers of the center), the

number of housing units per hectare of residential land increased much more dramatically

than population density .This means that either more housing units were added and there

were fewer people per unit, or the residential area got smaller as commercial activities

increased. There are two cities within one city -- one part of the urban population enjoys all

the benefits of urban living, whereas the other part (slum dwellers) lives in worse conditions

than their rural relatives (United Nations Human Settlements Program, 2003).The proportion

of slum population households and poor households in Chennai city is 18 and 17 (2005-

2006).The city has the fourth highest population of slum dwellers among major cities in

India, with about 820,000 people (18.6% of its population) living in slum conditions

(provisional census 2011).Overall, the marginal rate of population growth has decreased

faster than the marginal rate at which land has been converted to urban use over the last thirty

years, from 31% to 26% and from 36% to 14%, respectively. Table 3 shows the marginal

growth at different distances from the city center.

In the area outside of the central 10 kilometers, the rate of population growth now

exceeds the rate of land urbanization, where in the 1970s the opposite was true. The land

inside the Chennai City Corporation is reaching its limit of urbanization.

4.1. Residential Development

The largest component of urbanized land is residential land, about 72% on average (census

2001). In the central areas of the city, institutional and commercial uses occupy a significant

portion of the urbanized land, although residential use is the majority in all but the central 2

kilometers of the city center. The drop in residential use at 12 kilometers distance from the

city center is due to a preponderance of industrial use.

However, as industry suburbanizes in Chennai, the land at the periphery of the city begins

to be converted to industrial use. This is clear in the decrease in the percent of urbanized land

in residential use beyond 15 kilometers from the city center in recent years. Table 4 depicts

the land use extent in Chennai city and the rest of CMA. The amount of urbanized land

dedicated to residential use increases significantly by distance from city center with a

proportion of 54.25% in Chennai City and 21.87% in the rest of CMA.

4.2. Growth Dynamics of Chennai Metropolitan Area

A total of 15 villages in CMA have population more than 10,000 during the year 1971, the

most populous among them was Thiruvottiyur Municipality with a population of over 82,000.

Nine other villages emerged, each of them crossing a population of 10,000 during the year

1981 with Thiruvottiyur Municipality upholding the position with a population over 134,000.

However Ambattur Municipality emerged as the most populous one during the year 1991 and

2001 with a population of about 215,000 and 311,000 respectively. Sixteen more villages

emerged during 1991 and three more villages emerged during 2001 with a population of over

10,000. The reasons for growth of these villages are clearly depicted in Table 4.

Quite interestingly, it is observed that villages present immediately abutting the city

boundary viz. Thiruvottiyur, Madhavaram, Ambattur, Valasaravakkam, St.Thomas Mount

Cantonment and Alandur picked up development as early as 1971. Nerkundram, Ramapuram,

Manapakkam and Kottivakkam emerged during 1991 whereas Perungudi and Pallikaranai

emerged only during 2001. During 2001, the villages along Old Mahabalipuram Road viz.

Perungudi, Okkiyamthorapakkam and Sholinganallur and those along ECR viz. Neelankarai

and Injambakkam emerged in a contiguous fashion. Only one village in the northern part of

CMA namely, Vallur emerged with a population crossing 10,000 during the year 2001.

M. Lakshmi


Table 2 Reasons for Growth of Villages during 1971 – 2006

Reasons for

Growth

Villages emerged during the year

1971 1981 1991 2001 2006

Urban spill over

land extension

of city limit in

1977

Alandur

Ambattur

Madhavaram

Valasaravakkam

Porur

Ullagaram-

Puzhuthivakkam

Kottivakkam

Palavakkam

Ramapuram

Nandambakkam

- -

Access to road

network and

land

availability

Poonamallee

Kundrathur

Naravarikuppam

Padianallur

Sembakkam

Thiruneermalai

Mangadu

Puzhal

Mudichur

Madipakkam

Peerkankaranal

Karamabakkam

Okkiam

thorapakkam

Pallikaranai

Madambakkam

Neelankarai

Polichalur

Nazarathpet

Sithalapakkam

Medavakkam

Vengaivasal

Kovilambakkam

Mathur

Access to Road

and Rail

networks

and land

availability

Tambaram Pammal

Chitlapakkam

Minjur

Nadukuthagai

Perungalathur

- -

Nearness to

work

places

(industries

/ institutions),

access to road /

rail network,

land

availability

Thiruvottiyur

Pallavaram

Thirumazhisai

Thiruninravur

Nerkundram

Manali

Perungudi

Sholinganallur

Vandalur

Adayalampattu

Vanagaram

Chinnasekkadu

Perumbakkam

Cottage/Small

Scale industry,

access to road

network

Thriuverkadu

Anakaputhur

- - - -

Government

projects

/ proposals

Kathivakkam - - Vallur Nolambur

Military / Air

Force Stations

Avadi

St.Thomas Mount

cum Pallavaram

Cantonment

- - - -

IT Industry road

Access

- - - - Manapakkam

Karapakkam

Semmancheri

Recreation,

Road

access, land

availability

- - - Injambakkam -

Source: Sekar.S.P, Kanchanamala, 2011

The scatter diagram clearly shows the distribution of emerging villages from the Chennai

city during different points of time from 1971 to 2006 in Figure 4.2. The area above the

central axis shows a dispersed pattern of emergence of villages. The population data and

details of residential area of periurban areas are represented in Tables 4.5 and 4.6.



Figure 5 Scatter Diagram Representing the Distance of Emerging Villages from Chennai City during

1971-2006

Table 3 Population data of the periurban areas

Sl.No Village Name

Population for the corresponding year

(in numbers)

1971 1981 1991 2001

1 Agaramthen 818 1042 1199 1222

2 Arasankalani 118 163 284 527

3 Injambakkam 1684 2387 5151 10117

4 Jaladampettai 812 983 5062 7240

5 Karapakkam 312 1416 2587 3795

6 Kasapapuram 200 261 452 603

7 Kottivakkam 2138 3650 11856 13884

8 kovilambakkam 985 1273 5673 9277

9 Kovilancheri 422 532 714 572

10 Kulapakkam 953 1167 1980 2825

11 Kulathur 523 666 - 2098

12 Madipakkam 2692 3431 11437 15548

13 Maduraipakkam 286 327 416 727

14 Medavakkam 2789 3939 6432 9725

15 Meppedu - - - -

16 Mulacheri 76 96 149 770

17 Muvarasampattu 949 3046 5819 6162

18 Nanmangalam 887 1240 2101 3323

19 Nedunkundram 2635 1710 4935 6870

20 Neelankarai 1151 2451 7134 15637

21 Okkiyam Thuraipakkam 2192 3088 9679 25952

22 Ottiyambakkam 528 689 902 811

23 Palavakkam 1047 3433 10969 14361

24 Perumbakkam 1385 2229 3673 8081

25 Perundavakkam 94 120 - -

26 Puthur 668 3223 947 1243

27 Semmancheri 713 928 1582 3744

28 Sittilapakkam 984 1218 2279 4989

M. Lakshmi


Sl.No Village Name

Population for the corresponding year

(in numbers)

1971 1981 1991 2001

29 Thirusulam 2395 4802 5572 5973

30 Thiruvancheri 529 771 1355 638

31 Uthandi 999 1434 2178 2497

32 Vengaivasal 1352 1791 3298 8892

33 Vengambakkam 573 705 861 1142

Source: CMDA

Table 4 Extent of Residential land area in the periurban areas

Sl.No Village Name

Residential Area in hectares

2006 Proposed (2026)

Residential Residential Mixed Residential

1 Agaramthen 47.75 91.28 54.98

2 Arasankalani 11.36 42.95 23.89

3 Injambakkam 169.48 305.09 -

4 Jaladampettai 93.02 131.23 49.10

5 Karapakkam 44.17 21.80 34.41

6 Kasapapuram 28.04 39.05 27.43

7 Kottivakkam 156.12 74.43 -

8 kovilambakkam 64.58 29.38 81.75

9 kovilancheri 10.93 17.26 17.52

10 Kulapakkam 47.25 56.79 61.51

11 Kulathur 80.14 108.99 41.35

12 Madipakkam 246.71 233.76 63.15

13 Maduraipakkam 11.63 19.79 12.96

14 Medavakkam 162.24 188.76 137.79

15 Meppedu - 5.55 19.28

16 Mulacheri 16.71 13.80 8.38

17 Muvarasampattu 59.09 35.56 20.87

18 Nanmangalam 115.40 169.23 37.56

19 Nedunkundram 65.48 138.39 100.56

20 Neelankarai 234.76 147.16 -

21 Okkiyam Thuraipakkam 315.29 288.60 84.86

22 Ottiyambakkam 30.44 31.15 33.84

23 Palavakkam 149.06 89.60 3.11

24 Perumbakkam 200.08 367.07 122.21

25 Perundavakkam 19.80 16.69 -

26 Puthur 14.91 40.89 9.58

27 Semmancheri 67.94 144.92 45.40

28 Sittilapakkam 90.45 192.30 56.19

29 Thirusulam 53.36 - 30.50

30 Thiruvancheri 29.72 35.50 40.31

31 Uthandi 67.10 151.22 -

32 Vengaivasal 112.70 172.02 88.63

33 Vengambakkam 33.28 39.33 44.32

Source: CMDA

5. MODEL ANALYSIS

5.1. Stella, the Simulation Software

The Residential land use model presented in this study, using the System Dynamic (SD)

approach, has been implemented in the „STELLA‟ environment karthikeyan k(1999). The

modeling tool, which is an object-oriented simulation environment, allows the development



of Residential land use models. It has a user- friendly graphical interface and supports

modular program development. Using this tool, the modeler defines objects representing

physical and conceptual system components and indicates the functional relationship among

these objects. This mode of construction is analogous to drawing a schematic of the system to

be simulated. Building on these strengths, the general architecture of a System Dynamic

model is described.

5.2. System Concepts

The study is contemplated to comprehensively cover the following major sectors namely,

Population Sector and Land use Sector.

5.2.1. Population Sector

The model conception for population sector is shown in Fig 6. It explains the relation

between population and demographic characteristics of natural increase and the social

increase. The natural increase includes birth rate and death rate. The social increase includes

the immigration and outmigration. The model representation for population sector is shown in

Figure 7.

Figure 6 Model Conception for Population Sector

Figure 7 Model Representation for Population Sector

M. Lakshmi


Population is the level variable. The level is influenced by births, deaths, immigration

normal and outmigration normal. The births of Chennai city is influenced by birth normal,

which is the birth rate recorded in the year 2001.The registered birth rate in Chennai City in

2001 was 23.88 in 2001. Birth normal is multiplied by population as the birth rate is

expressed in terms of births per 1000 population. The deaths of Chennai city is influenced by

death normal, which is death rate recorded in the year 2001.The registered death rate in

Chennai City in 2001 was 8.36 in 2001. The immigration rate of Chennai city is influenced

by immigration normal, which is the immigration rate recorded in the year 2001. The

immigration rate in Chennai City in 2001 was 2.15% in 2001. The outmigration rate of

Chennai city is influenced by outmigration normal, which is the outmigration rate recorded in

the year 2001. The outmigration rate in Chennai City in 2001 was 2.34% in 2001.According

to Health Policy, the birth rate is targeted to 10/1000 and death rate is targeted to 6/1000 by

2026.

5.2.2. Land Use Sector

The model conception for land use sector for Chennai city is shown in Figure 8. It explains

the relation between land use, growth factor and FSI. The Density depends upon the available

land area and existing population level. The model representation for residential land use

sector for Land use Sector for Chennai city is shown in Figure 9.

The Residential Land Area (EXRLA) is a level variable. It is influenced by growth factor

(GF), future land area (FLA), Population, Residential Land Area Simulation (RLASM).

Figure 8 Model Conception for Land use sector



Figure 9 Model Representation for Residential Land use sector (City)

Figure 10 Model Representation for Land use sector (Periurban areas)

The future land area (FPLA) is further influenced by FPLA1 and FPLA2. The present FSI

values for residential area in Chennai city is 1.5. The Model Representation for Residential

Land use sector for Periurban areas is shown in Figure 10 The projected population for

periurban areas is based upon past data. The needed residential land area for various density

scenarios is predicted from projected population. From existing residential land area, shortage

of land area for residential purpose is predicted for future.

5.3. Model Calibration

There is no universal model that can run for all conditions with an unaltered set of

parameters. Parameters must be checked and adjusted within the known range to avoid

unrealistic projections.

Table 1

EX RLA

GF

FLA1

FLA1 4

FLA2

RLA SM

P0P

DENS

Residential LandUse Sector (City)

EX RLA

DENS

PLA1FRGF

FPLA

POP

FPLA2

FPLA1

NEED RLA LA INC\DEC

EX RLA

Land Use Sector(Periurban Areas)

M. Lakshmi


5.4. Model Behaviour

The validity of model tests on its behaviour and the objective interpretation of the model

behaviour. To observe the model behaviour, the formulated model has been tested with

various policy options. While the model is tested for different policy options namely, For

Chennai city, future land use Scenario for residential purpose is predicted for FSI 1.5, 2, 2.5

based on past data (2001). Based on hypothesis that 60% of land gets developed in residential

area of Chennai city, density trend is predicted for projected population (2026). The

residential land area for Chennai city is 9523 ha (Master Plan 2006).Desirable Scenario

involves achieving 275 persons/ha for FSI 1.5, 2.5,2 by horizon year 2026 with a particular

growth rate for residential land area in Chennai city. Partial Scenario involves achieving 333

persons/ha for FSI 1.5, 2.5,2 by horizon year 2026 with a particular growth rate for

residential land area in Chennai city. Whereas, the Extreme Scenario involves achieving 500

persons/ha for FSI 1.5, 2.5,2 by horizon year 2026 with a particular growth rate for

residential land area in Chennai city.

6. CONCLUSION

In this paper I have proposed stella model for simulating population in all prediction related

to population and land availability in Chennai areas. In future using this model to predict the

land use pattern.

REFERENCES

[1] Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority (2008), „Second Master Plan for Chennai

Metropolitan Area – 2026‟, Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority, Chennai.

[2] David E. Dowall and Paavo Monkkonen. (2007), „Chennai Urban Land Market Assessment‟,

Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley.

[3] Haroldo Torres, Humberto Alves and Maria Aparecida De Olivera. (2007),‟Sao Paulo

periurban Dynamics: Some social causes and environmental consequences‟, Environment and

Urbanization, Vol.19, No.1, pp.207-223.

[4] Irwin G.Elena, Kathleen and Jacqueline Geoghegan. (April 2003), Modeling and managing

urban growth at the rural-urban fringe: a parcel-level model of residential land use change‟,

Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Vol.32/1.

[5] Karthik.N., Navin Ganesh.V., Rammohan S. (2011), „Sustainable Transportation and

Infrastructure Development in Periurban areas of Chennai, B.E Thesis, College of

Engineering, Guindy.

[6] Karthikeyan K. (1999), ‟A study on dynamics of land use in Chembarambakkam new town‟,

M.E Thesis, College of Engineering, Guindy.

[7] Kaladharan T.V and Masoom M.A. (2007),‟Periurban development in the

Thiruvananthapuram city-An approach paper‟, Institute of Town planners of India.

[8] Lele M.D. (2006), ‟Development of fringe areas of urban settlements‟, ITPI journal, Institute

of Town Planners of India, Volume 5:1, pp.63-65.

[9] Miketoronto, „North America‟s largest and busiest bus way‟ [Online]. Available at

http//:www.octrenspo.com/ mapsheds/ Background .html, February 6, 2008 accessed on April

19, 2012.

[10] Nawaz N. (2009),‟Predistribution modeling in periurban area‟, M.E Thesis, College of

Engineering, Guindy.

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