Dynamic resilience planning for interdependent economic systems
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Transcript of Dynamic resilience planning for interdependent economic systems
DYNAMIC RESILIENCE PLANNING FOR INTERDEPENDENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
Raghav Pant, PhD Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford
ITRC Conference: The future of national infrastructure systems & economic prosperity Cambridge March 28, 2014
Kash Barker, PhD School of Industrial and Systems Engineering
University of Oklahoma
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 2
Why Resilience If we cannot control the volatile tides of change, we can learn to build better boats. We can design—and redesign—organizations, institutions, and systems to better absorb disruption, operate under a wider variety of conditions, and shift more fluidly from one circumstance to the next.
[Zolli and Healy 2012]
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 3
Interdependent Infrastructures
Critical Infrastructures
and Key Resources
Banking & Finance
Government Facilities
Defense Industrial Base
Commu-nication
Energy Dams Water Healthcare & Public Health
National Monuments & Icons
Information Technology
Transportation Systems
Emergency Services
Commercial Facilities
Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste
Critical Manufacturing
Agriculture & Food Chemical
Postal & Shipping
Rail Transport
Water Transport
Air Transport
Road Transport
Disruptions can propagate, resulting in direct as well as wider-spread indirect impacts.
Resilience is particularly important in interdependent systems
Disruption
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 4
Resilience: background
The notion of resilience has a strong history in several fields
- Ecology, social sciences, civil engineering
But lots of conflict in developing an agreed definition and resilience framework
In particular a resilience framework for interdependent systems is missing
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 5
Relevance of this work
Build a quantifiable resilience framework
A resilience paradigm from engineering with an economic interdependency model
Provide a means to valuate preparedness strategies
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 6
Defining Economic Resilience
Ability exhibited by systems that allows them to recover productivity In a desired time And/or with an acceptable cost
Resilience is planned for in advance of a disruptive event through preparedness policies and investments.
t0 t1
Disruption
Recovery
Stable target
Time
Eco
no
mic
Per
form
ance
As-planned level
Policies/ Investments
[Pant et al. 2012, 2014]
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 7
Interdependence and Disruption
3 4
2 1
1 2 3 4
1
2
3
4
Interdependence data (A*)
Disruptive event
Resilience Building
3 4
2 1
Building inventory
Resource Allocation
Controlling Interdependence
Resilience Evaluation
Inoperability Economic loss
Sect
or
Sect
or
Static Analysis
Dynamic Analysis
Time
Time
Op
erab
ility
O
per
abili
ty
Uncertainty
Outcomes
Cost
Eco
no
mic
loss
N
et B
enef
it
Cost
Resource management
Resilience framework
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 8
Dynamic inoperability IO model
[Lian and Haimes 2004]
For n interdependent sectors
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 9
0 10 20 30 40 50
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T i me( t )
Op
era
bil
ity
(1−
qi(
t))
T i me aver aged l evel of oper abi l i t y :
F i = 1 −1
T
T
0
qi ( t ) dt
T i me t o r ecover y :τ i
M axi mum l oss of funct i onal i t y : qmi
qei
T =
Resilience definitions: through model Measuring dynamic resilience with inoperability
– Performance metrics that quantify the interdependent resilience from inoperability
Measures average interdependent loss
sustained during recovery
Measures maximum impact of the disruption
Measures the capability of the infrastructure/industry to move towards stability
[Pant et al. 2012, 2014]
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 10
Engineering Resilience definitions Dynamic resilience
– Ability to resist the initial impact
– Ability to recover in desired time
[Bruneau et al. 2003]
shaded area
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 11
Interdependent resilience planning Ultimately, the 4-tuple of provide a means to describe interdependent economic resilience and generate planning strategies
[Pant et al. 2014]
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 12
Different values for the 4-tuple can describe planning options after each shock event at h = 0,1,….
Multiple external shocks
0 10 20 30 40 50
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
T i me( t )
Op
era
bil
ity
(1−
qi(
t))
qi,1m
qi,2m
qi,3m
τi,1
τi,2
τi,3
[Pant et al. 2013]
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 13
Model control
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Time
Error
Desired behavior or ‘observations’ z(k)
Modeled behavior q(k)
Minimize the error
A dynamic feed-back control problem that sets the model parameters setting resilience targets controlling interdependence planning
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 15
Port of Catoosa: Oklahoma
General'Dry'Cargo' Dry'Bulk' Grains' Liquid'Bulk'
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 16
Inland waterway network
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 17
Commodity flows and disruptions
Commodity queuing model at port and dynamic commodity flow along network
[Pant et al. 2011, 2014]
Disruption at port
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 18
Recovery time (days)
Targeted Recovery
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 19
Construction
Textile mills and textile product mills
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers
Other transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Truck transportation
Administrative and support services
Computer systems design and related services
τ = 5 days τ = 10 days τ = 14 days
30.2% 17..1% 9.3%
0.10 0.04 0.02
0.02 0.008 0.0014
Planning for Preferred Recovery
τ = Time to recovery
Primary Metals
Chart showing degree of investment in inventory of
Primary Metals into other sectors for recovery
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 20
Oil and gas extraction
Construction
Food and beverage products
Textile mills and textile product mills
Wood products
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical products
Plastics and rubber products
Mineral products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers
Other transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Truck transportation
Administrative and support services
Computer systems design and related services
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical products
Mineral products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery Miscellaneous manufacturing
69.6%
81.2%
55.9%
71.5% 30.2%
Resilience For Port Sectors Resilience dependence of port sectors on other sector for 5 day stabilization from disruption
27.3% 28.1%
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 21
Scope for Future development
Integrating network dynamics with economic dynamics
Long term risk, resilience and adaptation analysis
PANT R & BARKER K. 2014. Dynamic resilience planning for Interdependent Economic systems 22
Thanks for the attention Questions?
contact: [email protected]
[1] Pant, R., K. Barker, F.H. Grant, & T.L. Landers. (2011). Interdependent Impacts of Inoperability at Multi-modal Transportation Container Terminals. Transportation Research - Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 47(5), 722-737. [2] Pant, R.,K. Barker, K., & C. W. Zobel. (2013). Adaptive Economic Resilience Planning for Infrastructure and Industry Sectors with Multiple Shocks. ICOSSAR. [3] Pant, R.,K. Barker, K., & C. W. Zobel. (2014). Static and dynamic metrics of economic resilience for interdependent infrastructure and industry sectors. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.