Dynamic Growth Modeling1 Paul van Geert University of Groningen.
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Transcript of Dynamic Growth Modeling1 Paul van Geert University of Groningen.
Dynamic Growth Modeling 1
Dynamic Growth Modeling
Paul van Geert
University of Groningen
Dynamic Growth Modeling 2
Introductory Theoretical Aspects
1
Dynamic Growth Modeling 3
L’ important ....L’ important ....
• Albert Einstein: “Imagination is more important than knowledge” ...
• First comes curiosity, then comes the question, then comes the method• Primacy of theory• Use whatever method(s) that can contribute to
the refinement of the theoretical question
• Historical note• The “Belgians”: Quetelet and Verhulst• Manuel Fawlty Towers
• Albert Einstein: “Imagination is more important than knowledge” ...
• First comes curiosity, then comes the question, then comes the method• Primacy of theory• Use whatever method(s) that can contribute to
the refinement of the theoretical question
• Historical note• The “Belgians”: Quetelet and Verhulst• Manuel Fawlty Towers
Albert Einstein: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler...”
Albert Einstein: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler...”
Dynamic Growth Modeling 4
• Ganger and Brent (2004): really?• A spurt requires an S-shaped form of the growth
curve: Logistic equation• 38 longitudinal data sets• In only 5 children the s-shaped function provided a
better fit than the simpler quadratic model• the additional parameter in the S-shaped function did
not result in statistically significant gain in explained variance
• Ganger and Brent (2004): really?• A spurt requires an S-shaped form of the growth
curve: Logistic equation• 38 longitudinal data sets• In only 5 children the s-shaped function provided a
better fit than the simpler quadratic model• the additional parameter in the S-shaped function did
not result in statistically significant gain in explained variance
An example: the vocabulary spurt An example: the vocabulary spurt • Spurt in the lexicon in the second year of life• Spurt in the lexicon in the second year of life
050
100150200250300350400450500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
time
nu
mb
er o
f w
ord
s
Albert Einstein: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler...”
Albert Einstein: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler...”
Dynamic Growth Modeling 5
The quadratic model as explanatory theoryThe quadratic model as explanatory theory
• Lt = a + b*t + c*t2
• What is the underlying theory of vocabulary change? • It’s given by the first derivative of the equation• ΔL/ Δt = b + 2ct • the actual learning of words = adding a constant
number of words per unit time (the number b), in addition to adding a number of words, ct, that increases as the child grows older
• Lt = a + b*t + c*t2
• What is the underlying theory of vocabulary change? • It’s given by the first derivative of the equation• ΔL/ Δt = b + 2ct • the actual learning of words = adding a constant
number of words per unit time (the number b), in addition to adding a number of words, ct, that increases as the child grows older
Is this a reasonable theory of word learning?Is this a reasonable theory of word learning?Word learning depends on age?Word learning depends on age?How does age affect word learning?How does age affect word learning?Because “age” probably stands for something else, Because “age” probably stands for something else, namely the child’s increasing knowledge.namely the child’s increasing knowledge.But the theory does not specify this. But the theory does not specify this. The theory also predicts that a person will either The theory also predicts that a person will either continue to learn ever more words, irrespective of continue to learn ever more words, irrespective of how many words there are in his language, or that how many words there are in his language, or that at some point in time he will start to forget ever at some point in time he will start to forget ever more words…more words…
Is this a reasonable theory of word learning?Is this a reasonable theory of word learning?Word learning depends on age?Word learning depends on age?How does age affect word learning?How does age affect word learning?Because “age” probably stands for something else, Because “age” probably stands for something else, namely the child’s increasing knowledge.namely the child’s increasing knowledge.But the theory does not specify this. But the theory does not specify this. The theory also predicts that a person will either The theory also predicts that a person will either continue to learn ever more words, irrespective of continue to learn ever more words, irrespective of how many words there are in his language, or that how many words there are in his language, or that at some point in time he will start to forget ever at some point in time he will start to forget ever more words…more words…
Word learning depends on the words one already knows and on the words one does not know yet (the number of words in the language)The simplest possible equation expressing this model is the logistic equation
Word learning depends on the words one already knows and on the words one does not know yet (the number of words in the language)The simplest possible equation expressing this model is the logistic equation
Dynamic Growth Modeling 6
Dynamic growth models: basic principles
2
Dynamic Growth Modeling 7
Dynamic Growth Model of Development (1)Dynamic Growth Model of Development (1)
• A developing system can be described as a system of variables (or components)
• Variables change according to laws of growth• Auto-catalytic process
“Change (or stability) is its own cause”
• Depends on limited resources Change depends also on other things (the context) But the supply is not unlimited…
• A developing system can be described as a system of variables (or components)
• Variables change according to laws of growth• Auto-catalytic process
“Change (or stability) is its own cause”
• Depends on limited resources Change depends also on other things (the context) But the supply is not unlimited…
Dynamic Growth Modeling 8
Dynamic Growth Model of Development (2)Dynamic Growth Model of Development (2)
• We are interested in how phenomena are related• Correlations, explained variance, …
• Dynamic phrasing: how does one thing influence an other? How does one thing make another thing change?
• Dynamic relations are• Supportive• Competitive• Conditional
• We are interested in how phenomena are related• Correlations, explained variance, …
• Dynamic phrasing: how does one thing influence an other? How does one thing make another thing change?
• Dynamic relations are• Supportive• Competitive• Conditional
Dynamic Growth Modeling 9
A one-dimensional growth modelA one-dimensional growth model
• Example: the lexicon• Learning “now” depends on what one already
knows: a*L• And: Learning now depends on what one does
not know yet: b*(K-L)• Thus: learning now is described by a*L*b*(K-L)• Or, after simplification r*L(1-L/K)• The driving term and the slowing-down term
• The model can be easily extended to any form of resource-dependent growth
• Example: the lexicon• Learning “now” depends on what one already
knows: a*L• And: Learning now depends on what one does
not know yet: b*(K-L)• Thus: learning now is described by a*L*b*(K-L)• Or, after simplification r*L(1-L/K)• The driving term and the slowing-down term
• The model can be easily extended to any form of resource-dependent growth
Dynamic Growth Modeling 10
Multi-dimensional growth modelsMulti-dimensional growth models
• Examples:• Lexicon depends on syntax, and vice versa• Instruction given depends on what the child
already knows, and vice versa…• Language depends on cognition, and vice versa
….
• Coupled growth equations
• Examples:• Lexicon depends on syntax, and vice versa• Instruction given depends on what the child
already knows, and vice versa…• Language depends on cognition, and vice versa
….
• Coupled growth equations
Dynamic Growth Modeling 11
Property AProperty A
Property BProperty B
supportsupport supportsupport
Property AProperty A
Property BProperty B
competitioncompetition competitioncompetition
Property AProperty A
Property BProperty B
supportsupport competitioncompetition
Predator-Prey dynamicsPredator-Prey dynamics
Dynamic Growth Modeling 12
Motor systemMotor system
Perceptual system
Perceptual system
Linguistic knowledge
Linguistic knowledge
Social knowledge
Social knowledge
Physical knowledge
Physical knowledge
Pedagogical support
Pedagogical supportExternal symbol
systems
External symbol systems
concernsconcerns
emotionsemotions
The form of the developmental process is determined by the way the variables interact with each other
•Stepwise development (stages)Stepwise development (stages)•Temporary regressionsTemporary regressions
The form of the developmental process is determined by the way the variables interact with each other
•Stepwise development (stages)Stepwise development (stages)•Temporary regressionsTemporary regressions
Dynamic Growth Modeling 13
Motor systemMotor system
Perceptual system
Perceptual system
Linguistic knowledge
Linguistic knowledge
Social knowledge
Social knowledge
Physical knowledge
Physical knowledge
Pedagogical support
Pedagogical supportExternal symbol
systems
External symbol systems
concernsconcerns
emotionsemotions
Fischer’s developmental theory
Dynamic Growth Modeling 14
Pauline Number of Words (1 of 3)Pauline Number of Words (1 of 3)
• Based on a study by Dominique Bassano
• Number of words from one-word to multi-word sentences
• 1W-, 2-3W- and 4+W-utterances as fuzzy indicators of possible underlying generators• Holophrastic, combinatorial, syntactic
• Variability peaks provide an indication of discontinuity or transition
• Based on a study by Dominique Bassano
• Number of words from one-word to multi-word sentences
• 1W-, 2-3W- and 4+W-utterances as fuzzy indicators of possible underlying generators• Holophrastic, combinatorial, syntactic
• Variability peaks provide an indication of discontinuity or transition
Dynamic Growth Modeling 15
Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
14 19 24 29 34
age
freq
uenc
y
M1 M1 smooth M23 M23 smooth M422 M422 smooth
Dynamic Growth Modeling 16
Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
age
freq
uenc
y
W1 17.4% W23 17.4 W4plus 17.4%
Dynamic Growth Modeling 17
Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)Pauline Number of Words (2 of 3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
age
vari
abili
ty
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
observed Perc 0.05 Average Perc 0.95
W1 17.4% W23 17.4 W4plus 17.4%
Dynamic Growth Modeling 18
Dynamic model buildingDynamic model building
• Use dynamic modeling to investigate properties of the dynamics
• Based on simple relationships between variables• Supportive• Competitive• conditional
• Use dynamic modeling to investigate properties of the dynamics
• Based on simple relationships between variables• Supportive• Competitive• conditional
Dynamic Growth Modeling 19
One-word sentences
Holophrastic principle
One-word sentences
Holophrastic principle
2&3-word sentences
Combinatorial principle
2&3-word sentences
Combinatorial principle
4&more-word sentencesSyntactic principle
4&more-word sentencesSyntactic principle
supports
supports
Compete
s with
Compete
s with
supportssupports
Competes withCompetes with
Dynamic Growth Modeling 20
Dynamic Model and Data of Pauline
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
14 19 24 29 34
age in months
pro
po
rtio
n u
tte
ran
ces
W1 model W23 model W4+ model W1 W23 W4+
Dynamic Growth Modeling 21
Descriptive curve fitting
4
Dynamic Growth Modeling 22
Curve fitting…Curve fitting…
• Simple curves Linear, quadratic, exponential …
• Transition curves S-shaped curves: logistic, sigmoid,
cumulative Gaussian, … Eventually look very discontinuous…
• Smoothing and denoising curves Loess smoothing, Savitzky-Golay Very flexible
• Simple curves Linear, quadratic, exponential …
• Transition curves S-shaped curves: logistic, sigmoid,
cumulative Gaussian, … Eventually look very discontinuous…
• Smoothing and denoising curves Loess smoothing, Savitzky-Golay Very flexible
Dynamic Growth Modeling 23
Example: Peter’s pronomina (1 of 3)Example: Peter’s pronomina (1 of 3)
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
75 85 95 105 115 125 135
pronomina Linear model Quadratic Model
Dynamic Growth Modeling 24
Example: Peter’s pronomina (2 of 3)Example: Peter’s pronomina (2 of 3)
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
75 85 95 105 115 125 135
pronomina Sigmoid LS Fit Sigmoid Robust Fit
Dynamic Growth Modeling 25
Example: Peter’s pronomina (3 of 3)Example: Peter’s pronomina (3 of 3)
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
75 85 95 105 115 125 135
pronomina Loess 50% Loess 20%
If you want to describe your data by means of a central trend, use Loess* smoothing*(locally weighted least squares regression)
Data will be symmetrically distributed around the central trend, without local anomalies
If you want to describe your data by means of a central trend, use Loess* smoothing*(locally weighted least squares regression)
Data will be symmetrically distributed around the central trend, without local anomalies
Dynamic Growth Modeling 26
Curve fitting in cross-sectional dataCurve fitting in cross-sectional data
• Theory-of-Mind test:
• 324 children between 3 and 11 years
• Normal development
• Theory-of-Mind test:
• 324 children between 3 and 11 years
• Normal development
Dynamic Growth Modeling 27
Theory-of-Mind: cross-sectional data
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
35 55 75 95 115 135
age in months
To
m s
co
re
score Model quad2 score Loess
Dynamic Growth Modeling 28
Theory-of-Mind: cross-sectional data
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
35 55 75 95 115 135
age in months
To
m s
co
re
score boys score girls
Dynamic Growth Modeling 29
Theory-of-Mind: cross-sectional data
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
35 55 75 95 115 135
age in months
To
m s
co
re
ToM FD1 15% skewness 31
Dynamic Growth Modeling 30
Limits of dynamic growth models (and how they can help to overcome those limits ...)
5
Dynamic Growth Modeling 31
LimitsLimits
• Development is sometimes discontinuous
• A developmental level is a range• Variability and fluctuation
• Fuzziness and ambiguity
• One-dimensionality versus multiple states• Vector-field growth models
• Development through agents• Agent models
• Development is sometimes discontinuous
• A developmental level is a range• Variability and fluctuation
• Fuzziness and ambiguity
• One-dimensionality versus multiple states• Vector-field growth models
• Development through agents• Agent models
Dynamic Growth Modeling 32
Discontinuity and continuityDiscontinuity and continuity
• a dynamic system can have various attractor states and/or show self-organization
• Which implies that the system will undergo transitions
• Transitions can be continuous or discontinuous, with continuity existing alongside discontinuity
• a dynamic system can have various attractor states and/or show self-organization
• Which implies that the system will undergo transitions
• Transitions can be continuous or discontinuous, with continuity existing alongside discontinuity
• Discontinuity can be demonstrated by means of so-called catastrophe flags, borrowed from catastrophe theory• Or by means of evidence for some sort of “gap” in the data
• Discontinuity can be demonstrated by means of so-called catastrophe flags, borrowed from catastrophe theory• Or by means of evidence for some sort of “gap” in the data
Dynamic Growth Modeling 33
Example: Spatial PrepositionsExample: Spatial Prepositions
• Marijn van Dijk
• 4 sets of data• Marijn van Dijk
• 4 sets of data
name agesnumber of
observationsgender
Heleen 1;6,4 – 2;5,20 55 Female
Jessica 1;7,12 – 2;6,18 52 Female
Berend 1;7,14 – 2;7,13 50 Male
Lisa 1;4,12 - 2;4.12 48 Female
name agesnumber of
observationsgender
Heleen 1;6,4 – 2;5,20 55 Female
Jessica 1;7,12 – 2;6,18 52 Female
Berend 1;7,14 – 2;7,13 50 Male
Lisa 1;4,12 - 2;4.12 48 Female
• Prepositions used productively in a spatial-referential context
• Prepositions used productively in a spatial-referential context
Dynamic Growth Modeling 34
Transition marked by unexpected peak (2)Transition marked by unexpected peak (2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-270 -220 -170 -120 -70 -20 30 80
age
freq
uen
cy
data
Dynamic Growth Modeling 35
Transition marked by jump in extreme rangeTransition marked by jump in extreme range
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
age
freq
uen
cy
data progmax regmin
Dynamic Growth Modeling 36
Transition marked by discontinuous membershipTransition marked by discontinuous membership
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-180 -130 -80 -30 20 70 120 170 220
age
freq
uen
cy
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
lisa exact membership
Dynamic Growth Modeling 37
Agent modelsAgent models
• Growth models are variable-centered, agent models are agent-centered
• An agent is a collection of variables and relationships between variables
• All agents have the same structure, but different parameters
• Emergent collective behavior and developmental change in the parameters
• Growth models are variable-centered, agent models are agent-centered
• An agent is a collection of variables and relationships between variables
• All agents have the same structure, but different parameters
• Emergent collective behavior and developmental change in the parameters
Dynamic Growth Modeling 38
Emotional expression during interactionEmotional expression during interaction
• Henderien Steenbeek
• Are there differences in interaction style, depending on social status?
• Method and subjects• Five- to six-years-olds• Social interaction and emotional expression in
a pretend-play session• Three repeated observations, six week
interval
• Henderien Steenbeek
• Are there differences in interaction style, depending on social status?
• Method and subjects• Five- to six-years-olds• Social interaction and emotional expression in
a pretend-play session• Three repeated observations, six week
interval
Two “order parameters”: they summarize the behavior of the system
•Action directed towards other person or not•Intensity of emotional expression
What is the time evolution of these order parameters over time?
Two “order parameters”: they summarize the behavior of the system
•Action directed towards other person or not•Intensity of emotional expression
What is the time evolution of these order parameters over time?
Dynamic Growth Modeling 39
Realization of concerns
Realization of concerns Behaviors of
self and other
Behaviors of self and other
Emotions of self and other
Emotions of self and other
A dynamic model of social
interaction
determinedetermine
determinedetermine
Emotional appraisal
Emotional appraisal
de
term
ine
de
term
ine
determinedetermine
Strength of concerns
Strength of concerns
Co-determine
Co-determine
Sets norms to
Sets norms to
simulationsimulation
Dynamic Growth Modeling 40
Emotional expression during interactionEmotional expression during interaction
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401
time
inte
nsity
child peer
Individual (dyad) short-term time seriesIndividual (dyad) short-term time series
Dynamic Growth Modeling 41
Emotional expression during interactionEmotional expression during interaction
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401
time
freq
uenc
y
child peer
Dynamic Growth Modeling 42
Emotional expression during interactionEmotional expression during interaction
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401
time
freq
uenc
y
WA fK 200 WA fP 200
Dynamic Growth Modeling 43
Basic growth equationBasic growth equation
• In cell for next level type
• = preceding cell + RATE * preceding cell + RATE * ( 1 – preceding cell / K)
• Copy to cells below
• In cell for next level type
• = preceding cell + RATE * preceding cell + RATE * ( 1 – preceding cell / K)
• Copy to cells below