Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
-
Upload
adbi-publications -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
1/21
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
2/21
Wan _frj`do Umpnr snr`ns `s m lfdt`dumt`fd fh tan hfrinrby dming G`sluss`fd Umpnr snr`ns:tan duicnr`do fh tan pmpnrs lfdt`dung w`tafut `dtnrrupt`fd fr lamdon. MGC@s wfrj`do
pmpnrs rnhbnlt `d`t`mb `gnms fd m tfp`l mdg mrn pfstng fdb`dn hfr g`sluss`fd. MGC@ ndlfurmonsrnmgnrs tf pfst tan`r lfiindts fd tan im`d pmon hfr nmla wfrj`do pmpnr (o`vnd `d tanl`tmt`fd cnbfw). \fin wfrj`do pmpnrs imy gnvnbfp `dtf ftanr hfris fh pucb`lmt`fd.
\uoonstng l`tmt`fd;
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=7. Gydmi`l Mdmbys`s fh Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins;Ufb`ly @ipb`lmt`fds hfr Ninro`do Lfudtr`ns `d Ms`m. MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53. Wfjyf; Ms`mdGnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn. Mvm`bmcbn; attp;//www.mgc .fro/wfrj`do-pmpnr/35=7/=5/37/8711.gydmi`l.mdmbys`s.nxlamdon.rmtn.rno`ins/
Ubnmsn lfdtmlt tan mutafrs hfr `dhfrimt`fd mcfut ta`s pmpnr.
Nim`b;dyfsa`dfEmgc`.fro:jmk`Enlfd.jn`f.ml.kp:tmsfduimE`ih.fro
Dmfyuj` Pfsa`df `s Gnmd mdg LNF fh tan Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn. \mafjfJmk` `s Urfhnssfr, Gnpmrtindt fh Nlfdfi`ls, Jn`f ^d`vnrs`ty. Wmifd Msfduim `sNlfdfi`st, Gnct Ufb`ly G`v`s`fd, \trmtnoy Ufb`ly mdg Snv`nw Gnpmrtindt, @dtnrdmt`fdmbIfdntmry Hudg.
Wan v`nws nxprnssng `d ta`s pmpnr mrn tan v`nws fh tan mutafr mdg gf dft dnlnssmr`byrnhbnlt tan v`nws fr pfb`l`ns fh MGC@, MGC, `ts Cfmrg fh G`rnltfrs, fr tan ofvnrdindtstany rnprnsndt. MGC@ gfns dft oumrmdtnn tan mllurmly fh tan gmtm `dlbugng `d ta`s pmpnrmdg mllnpts df rnspfds`c`b`ty hfr mdy lfdsnqundlns fh tan`r usn. Wnri`dfbfoy usng imydft dnlnssmr`by cn lfds`stndt w`ta MGC fhh`l`mb tnris.
_frj`do pmpnrs mrn sucknlt tf hfrimb rnv`s`fd mdg lfrrnlt`fd cnhfrn tany mrn h`dmb`zngmdg lfds`gnrng pucb`sang.
Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutnJmsui`omsnj` Cu`bg`do 1H
Jmsui`omsnj`, La`yfgm-juWfjyf =55-8551, Kmpmd
Wnb; +1=-55Hmx; +1=-?=^SB; www.mgc`.froN-im`b; `dhfEmgc`.fro
35=7 Ms`md Gnvnbfpindt Cmdj @dst`tutn
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
3/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Mcstrmlt
Wa`s pmpnr g`slussns gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins mdg afw lfudtr`ns lmd sa`ht hrfitan`r lurrndt rno`ins tf tansn rno`ins fvnr tan ing`ui tnri. _n gnifdstrmtn tansupnr`fr`ty fh m cmsjnt-pno rno`in w`ta tan cmsjnt wn`oat rubn fvnr m hbfmt`do rno`in w`ta tan
`dtnrnst rmtn rubn fr tan ifdny suppby rubn `d simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns, gur`do pnr`fgs wandvfbmt`b`ty fh nxlamdon rmtns `s ifgnrmtn. Lfudtr`ns wa`la lurrndtby amvn h`xng nxlamdon rmtnswfubg cn cnttnr ifv`do tfwmrg n`tanr m cmsjnt-pno fr m hbfmt`do rno`in fvnr tan ing`uitnri. M sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rno`in `s prnhnrrng wand nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fds mrn bmron.
KNB Lbmss`h`lmt`fd;N73, H
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
4/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Lfdtndts
=. @dtrfgult`fd ................................................................................................................ .
\a`hts hrfi m H`xng Sno`in tf Mbtnrdmt`vn Sno`ins ................................................. =3
8. Lfdlbus`fd ............................................................................................................... =?
Snhnrndlns ......................................................................................................................... =1
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
5/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
=. @DWSFG^LW@FD
Gur`do tan bmst 3 gnlmgns, Nmst Ms`md lfudtr`ns amvn ndomong `d md `dtnds`vn gncmtnfd tan ifst gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins hfr tan rno`fd. Cnhfrn tan Ms`md h`dmdl`mblr`s`s, tan gfbbmr-pno wms rnomrgng ms tan ifst mpprfpr`mtn rno`in mdg ifst lfudtr`nstamt jnpt tan`r lurrndl`ns mt m lfdstmdt rmtn mom`dst tan ^\ gfbbmr cndnh`tng `d tnris fh`dlrnmsns `d trmgn mdg lmp`tmb hbfws, gnsp`tn tan pftndt`mb bfssns mssfl`mtng w`ta o`v`doup sfin fh tan`r ifdntmry mutfdfiy.
Afwnvnr, gn hmltfgfbbmr-pno rno`ins wnrn cbming ms fdn fh tan twf imkfr lubpr`ts `dtan Ms`md h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s. Bmron hbultumt`fds fh tan nxfondfus nxlamdon rmtn, sula mstan gfbbmrynd rmtn, dnomt`vnby mhhnltng nlfdfi`ns tarfuoa tan ynd rmtn, mbtafuoa tan
gfbbmr rmtn rnim`dng h`xng.=Wan ftanr lubpr`t wms m g`slrnpmdly `d imtur`ty cntwnnd
bndg`do mdg cfrrfw`do cy h`dmdl`mb `dst`tut`fds `d Nmst Ms`md nlfdfi`ns. H`dmdl`mb`dst`tut`fds `d @dgfdns`m, Snpucb`l fh Jfrnm, mdg Wam`bmdg cfrrfwng fd m safrt-tnricms`s hrfi mcrfmg mdg bndt tf gfinst`l h`ris fd m bfdo-tnri cms`s. \uggnd w`tagrmwmbsfh hudgs gur`do tan lr`s`s imgn tansn Nmst Ms`md cmdjs vubdnrmcbn.
Snhbnlt`do ta`s lr`t`l`si, snvnrmb nlfdfi`sts amvn suppfrtng m ifvn tf m cmsjnt-pnorno`in `d Nmst Ms`m, `dlbug`do Jmwm` (3557, 355?), @tf, Fomwm mdg \msmj` (=001), @tfmdg Umrj (355 lurrndl`ns amvn tan sminlamrmltnr`st`ls ms tany g`g cnhfrn tan lr`s`s.
3
Afwnvnr, tanrn `s m grmwcmlj `d tan hbfmt`do rno`in; bmron nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fds dnomt`vnby mhhnlttan nlfdfiy, ms safwd `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg @cujm (355
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
6/21
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
7/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Mdftanr strnmi fh b`tnrmturn prfv`gns m gydmi`l mdmbys`s fh nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins `dNmst Ms`m. Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg \uzuj` (3553) lfipmrn tarnn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins, tancmsjnt-pno, tan gfbbmr-pno, mdg tan hbfmt`do rno`in, `d tan gydmi`l lfdtnxt mdg h`dg tamt
tan cmsjnt-pno bnmgs tf tan bfwnst luiubmt`vn bfss mifdo tarnn fpt`fds. \a`fk` (3558m,3558c) lfds`gnrs nxlamdon rmtns `d m gydmi`l stflamst`l ndv`rfdindt mdg hflusns fdnxlamdon rmtn pmss-tarfuoa udgnr tan cmsjnt-pno rno`in w`ta twf g`hhnrndt `dvf`l`doslanins fh h`ris; prfgulnr lurrndly pr`l`do mdg vna`lbn lurrndly pr`l`do.
Smkmd mdg \`rnomr (3553) lfdtrmst tan nxpnr`ndlns fh Afdo Jfdo, La`dm mdg \`dompfrn wanrn tan hfrinr
fpnrmtns m ^\ gfbbmrb`djng lurrndly cfmrg mrrmdonindt mdg tan bmttnr im`dtm`ds md mgkustmcbn pno `dtan hfri fh m ifd`tfr`do cmdg mrrmdonindt w`ta tan lndtrmb pmr`ty cmsng fd md udg`slbfsng trmgnwn`oatng lurrndly cmsjnt.
8
Im mdg IlLmubny (35==) h`dg tamt `d 3 ynmrs hrfi i`g-3558 tf i`g-3551, tan La`dnsn rndi`dc`strndotandng ormgumbby mom`dst trmg`do pmrtdnrs lurrndl`ns w`ta`d m dmrrfw cmdg.
>
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
8/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
H`ourn =; Dfi`dmb Nxlamdon Smtns fh M\NMD+< Lurrndl`ns mom`dst tan ^\ Gfbbmr
M. Mbb lfudtr`ns (Kmdumry =00? 9 =.5)
C. Nxlbug`do @dgfdns`m (Kmdumry =00? 9 =.5)
USL 9 Unfpbns Snpucb`l fh La`dm.
\furln; @IH @dtnrdmt`fdmb H`dmdl`mb \tmt`st`ls.
8
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
9/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Snlndt trmds`t`fds fh gn kurn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins `d M\NMD+< mrn suiimr`zng `d
Wmcbn =.?
@t `s dftnwfrtay tamt ifst lfudtr`ns `d M\NMD+< nxlnpt Kmpmd amvn
nxpnr`ndlng sa`hts hrfi fdn rno`in tf mdftanr `d tan pfst-Ms`md h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s pnr`fg
mdg amvn nxpnr`ndlng mt bnmst m simbb gnornn fh lamdon. Mifdo tani, wn snn twfpmttnrds fh rno`in lamdon; (`) m gnv`mt`fd hrfi m lfdvndt`fdmb pnoong mrrmdonindtmssfl`mtng w`ta md `dlrnmsn `d tan hbnx`c`b`ty fh tan nxlamdon rmtn (ms `d tan USL mdgImbmys`m) mdg (``) m gnpmrturn hrfi m imdmong hbfmt`do rno`in cnlmusn fh m rngult`fd`d hfrn`od nxlamdon imrjnt `dtnrvndt`fds (ms `d @dgfdns`m mdg Wam`bmdg).
Wmcbn =; Wrmds`t`fd fh Gn KurnNxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins `d M\NMD+53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
@d pmrmbbnb w`ta tan gn kurn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins mddfudlng fhh`l`mbby cy tanmutafr`t`ns, @`zntzj`, Sn`damrt, mdg Sfofhh (35==) prfv`gn ifrn gntm`bng lbmss`h`lmt`fds fhnxlamdon rno`ins lfds`gnrng ms gn hmltf. Ms wms snnd `d tan gn hmltflmsn, wn lmd
snn m gnv`mt`fd hrfi m lfdvndt`fdmb pnoong mrrmdonindt mssfl`mtng w`ta ornmtnrnxlamdon rmtn hbnx`c`b`ty ms `d tan USL mdg Imbmys`m, `.n., m ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3% mdg m gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%. Mbtafuoa tan USL snnis tf amvn rnturdng tf m gn hmltfpno `d Fltfcnr3551 r`oat mhtnr tan obfcmb h`dmdl`mb lr`s`s, hfr tan pnr`fg hrfi Kudn 35=5 tf Kudn 35=3 `t`s mssnssng tf amvn rnvnrtng tf m ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%ms safwd cy tan nip`r`lmb mdmbys`s `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=7). Afwnvnr,tan Ua`b`pp`dns mdg \`dompfrn mrn mssnssng tf cn `ipbnindt`do gn hmltf lrmwb`docmdgs tamt mrn dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3->% mdg ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3% rnspnlt`vnby rmtanr tamd hbfmt`do fr imdmong hbfmt`do rno`ins.
Wmcbn 3; Wrmds`t`fd fh Gn HmltfNxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins `d M\NMD+
m
Mrrmdonindt `dndg-3551
m
Mrrmdonindt `dndg-35=5
m
@dgfdns`m Imdmong hbfmt`doGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt`s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%
Imbmys`mUrn-mddfudlng pno frlurrndly cfmrgmrrmdonindt
Gn hmltf pnoGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt`s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%
Ua`b`pp`dnsGn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/-3%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdgtamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd frnqumb tf +/->%
Gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt`s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/->%
\`dompfrnIfv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumbtf +/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%
Wam`bmdgIfv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumbtf +/-3%
Ifv`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf+/-3%
UnfpbnsSnpucb`l fhLa`dm
Gn hmltf pnoIfv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnrtamd frnqumb tf +/-3%
Gn hmltf pno Gn hmltf pno
Kmpmd Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do
Snpucb`l fhJfrnm
Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do Hrnn hbfmt`do
mWan lmtnofr`ns fh gn kurnnxlamdon rmtn mrrmdonindts mrn (=) df snpmrmtn bnomb tndgnr, (3) prn-mddfudlng
pno fr lurrndly cfmrg mrrmdonindt, () prn-mddfudlng lrmwb`do pno, (8) prn-mddfudlng lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamdfr nqumb tf +/-3%, (?) gn hmltf lrmwb`do pno, (1) gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (0) prn- mddfudlng lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `s w`gnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (=5) gn hmltf lrmwb`do cmdg tamt `sdmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/->%, (==) ifv`do cmdg tamt `s dmrrfwnr tamd fr nqumb tf +/-3%, (=3) imdmong
hbfmt`do, (=) gumb imrjnt d wa`la pmrmbbnb imrjnt gmtm s i`ss`do.
\furln; @bzntzj`, Sn`damrt, mdg Sfofhh (35=5).
1
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
11/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
7. GPDMI@L MDMBP\@\ CM\NG FD @D\WS^INDW
S^BN\ FH IFDNWMSP UFB@LP
Wan suiimry fh tan trmds`t`fds fh tan nxlamdon rmtns mdg rno`ins `d tan pfst-lr`s`spnr`fg `d tan prnv`fus snlt`fd suppfrts tan dnng hfr gydmi`l mdmbys`s. Mbtafuoa sfinstug`ns mttnipt tf lfds`gnr tan ifst gns`rmcbn rno`in hfr tan rno`fd `d m gydmi`llfdtnxt, tan b`djs cntwnnd tan nxlamdon rno`ins mdg tan `dstruindt rubns fh ifdntmrypfb`ly mrn dft lfiprnands`vnby g`slussng. @d ta`s rnomrg, Pfsa`df, Jmk` mdg Msfduim(35=3m) mdmbyzn tan supnr`fr`ty fh m cmsjnt-pno rno`in fvnr m hbfmt`do rno`in, hflus`dopmrt`lubmrby fd pfss`cbn `dstruindt rubns, wa`la tan lfudtr`ns `ipbnindt udgnr tansnrno`ins. Wan`r ifgnb `s m simbb fpnd nlfdfiy ifgnb wanrn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg `sg`v`gng `dtf twf lfudtr`ns safwd `d H`ourn 3. @t mssuins Wam`bmdg tf cn tan afinlfudtry mdg Kmpmd mdg tan ^\ tf cn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg (SF_). Wan yndgfbbmr rmtn `s
nxfondfus tf Wam`bmdg.1
H`ourn 3; Ifgnb fh \imbb Fpnd Nlfdfiy mdg tan Snst fh tan _frbg
SF_ 9 rnst fh wfrbg, ^\ 9 ^d`tng \tmtns.
\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=3m).
\fin `dtnrnst`do pfb`ly `ipb`lmt`fds ninron hrfi Wmcbn
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
12/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
i`d`i`zn tan `ipmlts fd tan futput omp mdg `dhbmt`fd tarfuoa nxlamdon rmtn lamddnbs
cy lfii`tt`do tf `ts cmsjnt wn`oat tf spnl`h`l pfb`ly tmront vmr`mcbns.0
\nlfdg, tan bfss udgnr tan muoindtng `dtnrnst rmtn rubn `s simbbnr tamd tamt udgnr tan
`dtnrnst rmtn rubn. Wa`s safws lbnmrby tan mgvmdtmon fh lfii`tt`do tf m rubn tamt `dlbugnstan gfbbmr rmtn ms md mgg`t`fdmb tmront cnlmusn cfta futput omp mdg `dhbmt`fd mrn bmronbymhhnltng cy hbultumt`fds `d tan gfbbmr rmtn. Bmstby, tan a`oanr vmbuns fh luiubmt`vn bfssnsudgnr tan trmgn wn`oat rubn mdg tan h`xng rmtn rubn lfipmrng tf tafsn udgnr tan cmsjntwn`oat rubn rnby fd tan `dnhh`l`ndly fh tan rubns, sula tamt tan lndtrmb cmdj lmddft mgkusttan cmsjnt wn`oat sifftaby tf rnmlt mom`dst safljs.
Wmcbn
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
13/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
H`ourn
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
14/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
>. \A@HW\ HSFI M H@QNG SNO@IN WF MBWNSDMW@XN
SNO@IN\
_n bnmrdng hrfi tan prnv`fus snlt`fd tamt m cmsjnt-pno mdg m hbfmt`do rno`in mrn cftagns`rmcbn hfr Nmst Ms`md lfudtr`ns fvnr tan ing`ui tnri. Afwnvnr, tanrn rnim`ds m c`oqunst`fd; afw bmron mrn tan lfsts mssfl`mtng w`ta m trmds`t`fd hrfi m h`xng rno`in tf
mbtnrdmt`vn rno`ins hfr lfudtr`ns wa`la lurrndtby amvn m h`xng rno`in6=5
Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==) lfds`gnr wantanr tansn lfudtr`ns wfubg cn cnttnrfhh im`dtm`d`do tan stmtus quf (tan h`xng rno`in w`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs) fr sa`ht`do tfmd mbtnrdmt`vn rno`in, tmj`do `dtf mllfudt tan lfsts mdg cndnh`ts tamt wfubg cnondnrmtng cy ifv`do tf ftanr rno`ins. Ms `d \nlt`fd 7, tan ifgnb `s m simbb fpnd
nlfdfiy ifgnb wanrn tan rnst fh tan wfrbg `s g`v`gng `dtf twf lfudtr`ns safwd `dH`ourn 7. @d ta`s lmsn, tan USL `s trnmtng ms tan afin lfudtry, `.n., m simbb fpndnlfdfiy o`vnd `ts lmp`tmb fpnddnss mdg h`dmdl`mb b`cnrmb`zmt`fd, mdg Kmpmd mdg tan ^\ms tan rnst fh tan wfrbg (SF_). Fdln mom`d tan yndgfbbmr rmtn rnim`ds nxfondfus tf
tan USL.==
H`ourn 7; Ifgnb `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==)
USL 9 Unfpbns Snpucb`l fh La`dm, SF_ 9 rnst fh wfrbg, ^\ 9 ^d`tng \tmtns.
\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==).
Cns`gns im`dtm`d`do tan lurrndt rno`in, safwd ms pfb`ly (=) `d H`ourn >, tan fpt`fds hfrtan lfudtry mrn tf sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rno`in fr tf m hbfmt`do rno`in.
=5Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=7) g`sluss tan ifst gns`rmcbn gydmi`l trmds`t`fd pfb`ly hfr tan USL, `db`dn w`ta rnlndt gnvnbfpindt fh nxlamdon rmtn pfb`ly `d tan lfudtry.
==
Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==) mssuin tamt gfinst`l mdg hfrn`od mssnts mrn `ipnrhnlt sucst`tutnswanrnms \ mssnts mdg Kmpmdnsn mssnts mrn pnrhnlt sucst`tutns hfr gfinst`l dvnstfrs.
=3
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
15/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Hfr tan ifvn tf m cmsjnt-pno rno`in, H`ourn > safws twf pfss`cbn rfutns tan lfudtrylmd tmjn. \tmrt`do w`ta tan gfbbmr-pno rno`in w`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, udgnr pfb`ly (3)tan lfudtry lmd sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno rno`in w`ta bffsn lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, mdg h`dmbby
rnmla tan cmsjnt-pno w`ta df lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs, `.n., `t lmd ormgumbby mgkust cfta tangnornn fh lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs mdg cmsjnt wn`oat. Ufb`ly () stmrt`do w`ta tan gfbbmr-pno rno`inw`ta str`lt lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs mdg suggndby sa`ht`do tf tan imdmong hbfmt`do rno`in cyrnifv`do lmp`tmb lfdtrfbs. @d ta`s lmsn tan lfudtry `dtnrvndns `d tan hfrn`od nxlamdonimrjnt wand m bmron nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fd mgvnrsnby mhhnlts tan nlfdfiy.
H`ourn >; Ufb`l`ns tfwmrg \tmcbn Sno`ins
\furln; Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35==).
Wmcbns 7 mdg > mrn cmsng fd s`iubmt`fd rnsubts us`do La`dnsn mdg Wam` gmtm. Wanimkfr pfb`ly `ipb`lmt`fds fh tansn tmcbns lmd cn suiimr`zng ms hfbbfws.
H`rst, im`dtm`d`do m gfbbmr-pno rno`in `s gns`rmcbn fdby `d tan safrt tnri hfr cfta tanUSL mdg Wam`bmdg, `dg`lmt`do tamt tany wfubg cn cnttnr sa`ht`do tf n`tanr m cmsjnt-pnorno`in fr m hbfmt`do rno`in `d tan bfdo tnri. Wa`s rnsubt gfns dft gnpndg fd tan pfb`lytmronts tan ifdntmry mutafr`t`ns mrn m`i`do tf mla`nvn: w`ta rnomrg tf cfta futputstmc`b`ty mdg pr`ln bnvnb stmc`b`ty, `t `s gns`rmcbn tf ifvn hrfi m gfbbmr-pno rno`in.
\nlfdg, lfdlnrd`do tan laf`ln cntwnnd m ormgumb mgkustindt (pfb`ly 3) tfwmrg m
gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rno`in fr m suggnd sa`ht tf m gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rno`in (pfb`ly
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
16/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
tan bfdonr tan trmds`t`fd pnr`fg, tan ornmtnr tan cndnh`ts tan lfudtr`ns rnln`vn hrfirnmla`do tan gns`rng rno`in mt fdln. Afwnvnr, tan lfudtr`ns wfubg suhhnr bfssns hrfitan sa`hts mdg m ormgumb mgkustindt wfubg ndmcbn tani tf siffta tansn fut fvnr m
pnr`fg fh t`in. Wanrnhfrn, lfudtr`ns usumbby prnhnr tf amvn m trmds`t`fd pnr`fg tfi`d`i`zn tansn bfssns. M trmds`t`fd pnr`fg fh md `dtnring`mtn bndota (=1 qumrtnrs),ndmcbns m ormgumb mgkustindt tfwmrg m gns`rng cmsjnt-pno rno`in. Hfr cfta futputstmc`b`ty mdg pr`ln bnvnb stmc`b`ty, m ormgumb mgkustindt `s hfudg tf cn gns`rmcbn.
Wa`rg, lfipmr`do tan suggnd sa`hts tf m cmsjnt-pno rno`in (pfb`ly
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
17/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Wmcbn 7; Lfipmr`sfd fh H`vn Wrmds`t`fdmb Ufb`l`ns hfr tan USL
M. Futput \tmc`b`ty
Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN9>)
Gns`rmcbn rno`in Gfbbmr-pno Cmsjnt-pno Cmsjnt-pno Hbfmt`do Imdmonghbfmt`do
Mgkustindt d.m. Ormgumb \uggnd \uggnd \uggnd
@dstruindtvmbun
Luiubmt`vn bfss(vmbun)
=?.57 =.15 =.0= 3.8? 3.
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
18/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Wmcbn >; Lfipmr`sfd fh H`vn Wrmds`t`fdmb Ufb`l`ns hfr Wam`bmdg
M. Futput \tmc`b`ty
Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN93 5.55>.5 =.< >.? ==.< ==.>
C. Ur`ln Bnvnb \tmc`b`ty
Ufb`ly (=) Ufb`ly (3) Ufb`ly ()(WN9
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
19/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
8. LFDLB^\@FD
Wa`s pmpnr ams mttniptng tf lfds`gnr twf qunst`fds rnbmtng tf tan g`sluss`fd fdgns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins `d Nmst Ms`m, nipbfy`do m gydmi`l ndv`rfdindt. Wanh`rst `s; wamt `s tan ifst gns`rmcbn nxlamdon rmtn rno`in hfr lfudtr`ns fvnr tan ing`uitnri `d rnbmt`fd tf tan hudlt`fds fh `dstruindt rubns `d ifdntmry pfb`ly6 Wan snlfdg `s;wfubg m simbb fpnd nlfdfiy wa`la lurrndtby ams m h`xng nxlamdon rmtn rno`in cncnttnr stmy`do w`ta tan lurrndt rno`in fr sa`ht`do tf md mbtnrdmt`vn rno`in fvnr taning`ui tnri6
_n h`dg h`rst tamt tan cmsjnt-pno rno`in w`ta m cmsjnt wn`oat rubn `s supnr`fr tf tanhbfmt`do rno`in w`ta md `dtnrnst rmtn rubn fr m ifdny suppby rubn `d simbb fpndnlfdfi`ns, fvnr pnr`fgs wand tan vfbmt`b`ty fh tan nxlamdon rmtns `s ifgnrmtn. Wanbmttnr ambh fh tan mdmbys`s suoonsts tamt tan lfudtr`ns wfubg cn cnttnr fhh sa`ht`do tfwmrg
n`tanr m cmsjnt-pno fr m hbfmt`do rno`in fvnr tan ing`ui tnri. M sa`ht tf m cmsjnt-pno`s prnhnrmcbn rnbmt`vn tf m sa`ht tf m hbfmt`do rno`in wand tan nxlamdon rmtn hbultumt`fdsmrn bmron. \a`ht`do tfwmrg m imdmong hbfmt`do rno`in `s bnss mttrmlt`vn tamd sa`ht`do tf mcmsjnt-pno o`vnd tan lfsts fh `dtnrvnd`do `d tan hfrn`od nxlamdon imrjnts.
Mbtafuoa fur mdmbys`s lndtnrs fd tan nxlamdon rmtn rno`ins `d Nmst Ms`m, `t ams`ipb`lmt`fds hfr mdy simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns w`ta s`i`bmr hnmturns. Hfr s`ipb`l`ty, furgydmi`l nxnrl`sn wms b`i`tng tf simbb fpnd nlfdfi`ns. Wan gydmi`l mdmbys`s fh twf`dtnrgnpndgndt nlfdfi`ns lmrr`ng fut `d Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim (35=3c) imyprfv`gn mgg`t`fdmb ds`oats.
=?
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
20/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
SNHNSNDLN\
Mgmis, L., mdg S. \nicbmt. 3557. Fpt`fds hfr Lurrndly Mrrmdonindts mdg Wan`rUfb`ly @ipb`lmt`fds. @d Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins `d Nmst Ms`m, ng`tng cy O. GnCrfuwnr mdg I. Jmwm`. Bfdgfd; Sfutbngon.
Cm`o, W. 355=. Lamrmltnr`z`do Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins `d Ufst-Lr`s`s Nmst Ms`m. @IH_frj`do Umpnr, _U/5=/=>3. @IH.
C`rg O., mdg S. Smkmd. 3553. Fpt`imb Lurrndly Cmsjnts mdg tan Wa`rg LurrndlyUandfindfd; Nxlamdon Smtn Ufb`ly hfr \futanmst Ms`m. Kfurdmb fh@dtnrdmt`fdmb Gnvnbfpindt. =7; =5>
-
8/10/2019 Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia
21/21
MGC@ _frj`do Umpnr >53 Pfsa`df, Jmk`, mdg Msfduim
Smkmd, S., mdg S. \`rnomr. 3553. Laf`ln fh Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`in; Lurrndly Cfmrg(Afdo Jfdo) fr Ifd`tfr`do Cmdg (\`dompfrn)6Mustrmb`md Nlfdfi`l Snv`nw, 77;>>8.
\a`fk`, N. 3558m. @dvf`l`do Lurrndly mdg tan Fpt`imb Cmsjnt-pno hfr Nmst Ms`m;Mdmbyz`do ^s`do m Dnw Fpnd Imlrfnlfdfi`l Ifgnb. Kfurdmb fh tan Kmpmdnsnmdg @dtnrdmt`fdmb Nlfdfi`ns. 35; >80>10.
\a`fk`, N. 3558c. La`dnsn Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`ins mdg tan Fpt`imb Cmsjnt _n`oats hfrtan Snst fh Nmst Ms`m. S@NW@ G`sluss`fd Umpnr \nr`ns. 58-N-537. Wfjyf; S@NW@.
\ussmdojmrd, L., mdg U. X`laymdfdg. 355?. Wnd Pnmrs mhtnr tan H`dmdl`mb Lr`s`s `dWam`bmdg; _amt ams cnnd bnmrdng mdg dft bnmrdng6Ms`md Nlfdfi`l Ufb`lySnv`nw, 3; =55==1.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=7. Gydmi`l Wrmds`t`fd fh Nxlamdon SmtnSno`in `d La`dm. La`dm & _frbg Nlfdfiy. 33(.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=3m. Laf`lns fh Fpt`imb Ifdntmry Ufb`ly@dstruindts udgnr tan Hbfmt`do mdg tan Cmsjnt-pno Sno`ins. \`dompfrnNlfdfi`l Snv`nw. >?(7); =3>5537.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35=3c. Gydmi`l Mgkustindts tfwmrg tan \tmcbnCmsjnt-pno fr Hbfmt`do Sno`in d m Wwf-Lfudtry Ondnrmb Nqu`b`cr`ui Ifgnb.Imduslr`pt.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 35==. Gydmi`l Nhhnlt fh Lamdon `d NxlamdonSmtn \ystni - Hrfi tan H`xng Nxlamdon Smtn Sno`in tf tan Cmsjnt-pnoSno`in fr Hbfmt`do Sno`in. Jn`f/Jyftf Obfcmb LFN G`sluss`fd Umpnr \nr`ns.GU35==-538.attp;//www.olfn-nlfdcus.jn`f.ml.kp/ndob`sa/lmt70/.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg W. Msfduim. 3557. Fpt`imb Nxlamdon Smtn \ystni `d WwfLfudtr`ns w`ta tan Snst fh tan _frbg. Jn`f Nlfdfi`l \tug`ns. 7=; 3>?>.
Pfsa`df, D., \. Jmk`, mdg P. @cujm. 355