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GROUPASSIGNMENT 1DINH VU PORT DEVELOPMENT AND
INVESTMENT JOINT STOCK COMPANY
GROUP: 2
CLASS: SB0765
LECTURER: DINH TIEN THANH
TOPIC: EVALUATE DVPS COST OF CAPITAL
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TABLE CONTENT
Executive summary .................................................................................... 2
Company introduction .............................................................................. 3
The process to calculate cost of capital .................................................... 10
1. cost of equity ............................................................................... 112. cost of debt .................................................................................. 183. Calculate tax rate for DVP ........................................................ 204. Cost of capital ............................................................................. 20
Comment about the cost of capital in two methods ................................ 22
References ................................................................................................... 28
Appendices .................................................................................................. 28
MEMBERS
Tran Thi Hanh Trang
Tran Huynh Nhu
Huynh Anh Kim
Huynh Manh Tung
Le Minh Hiep
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of investors and the choice in using method will impact with development of
the company. To go to details, we will understand clearly about DVP and we
will make decision to invest into DVP or not.
II. DINHVU PORT INTRODUCTION1.Company overview
- Company: DinhVu Port Development and Investment Joint StockCompany.
- Certificate of Business Registration No: 0203000364- Capital : 200,000,000,000 VND- Capital investment of the owner: 83,682,913,000 VND- Phone number: 0313.769992- Tax number: 0313.769992- Website: www.dinhvuport.com.vn
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- Stock code: DVP2. The formation and developmentDinhVu Port (DVP) was established under Decision No. 990/QD-TGD
November 11, 2002 by General Director of the Vietnam Maritime
Corporation.
14/01/2003, DVP was officially put into operation.
1/12/2009, the shares of DVP was officially listed on the Stock Exchange
Ho Chi Minh city Decision No. 147/QD-SGDHCM November 24, 2009 the
following contents:
Type of shares: Ordinary shares Stock code: DVP Par value: 10,000VND/share The number of listed share: 20,000,000 shares The total value of listed shares at par value: 200,000,000,000 VNDIn 2012, the 2nd consecutive time, Vietnam Tax Magazines and VNR are
assessed name one of top 1000 Enterprises highest income tax Vietnam.
Also in 2012, DVP was honored with the award for Strong brand Dai Viet
2012. This is award of Union of Science and Technology Vietnam held to
honor businesses that have tried to build brand strives for sustainable
development through the promotion and application of science and
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technology to create products, quality services to meet market needs
improving competitiveness, contribute to the economic development of the
country. Especially in 2012, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of
incorporation 12/19/2002 -19/12/2012, DVP was honor awarded by the
President Medal for the Second Labour achievements achieve excellence in
the manufacturing business.
Also in 2012 the company Hai Phong city People's Committee
compliments distention files carry the "10 years of construction, Integration
and Sustainable Development".
* Business Scope
a.Business, exploit portThe company will carry out loading and unloading of goods from
ships in port warehouses, yards outside the port request services of shipping
agents. Infrastructure DinhVu Port today mainly consists of two ports to be
able to receive ships from 20.000 to 40.000 DWT. Two ports were put into
operation between 2005 and 2008.
Production of goods through ports in the annual average of about 3 to
4 million tons, container output through the port of DinhVu from 350,000 to
400,000 TEUs, the average proportion of 20% -25% of the total output of
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goods through the system Haiphong port. Compared with national market
share, production of goods through the DinhVu port accounts 2-3%.
b.Warehouse for rent and delivery goods.The goods are stored in warehouses or yards as required by the
shipping agent or owner goods, DVP responsible custodian, preserving all
goods until the goods pickup.
Currently, DVP has a warehouse with an area of 6000m2 and a yard
containing an area of 10,000 m2. Every year, this segment contributed
average 5% of the total revenue of the company.
3. Development strategyDevelopment strategy of the company through two main directions:
* Develop in-depth:
The company continued to invest in modern equipment, infrastructure,
and training and improving the quality of human resources, the system
applies advanced information technology in the management and control of
the port, towards the goal of becoming a container handling port and modern
professional.
* Development of the width:
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To take maximum advantage of the resources and to increase
profitability, the company has expanded business scope and development of
industries related to port activities such as:
Continue investments in joint ventures SITC-Dinhvu Logistics and
Dinh Vu Logistics Joint Stock Company.
Cooperation with strategic partners is to conduct a feasibility study of a
joint venture investment projects, development of ports in the outer region:
investment, construction and operation of the maritime business.
4. The producing situation and business activities in 2012.* Results of business activities in 2012
Through production: 4,647,017 tons was to 104.54% compared with
the plan and increase 7.7% from 2011. In which container cargo: 462 686
TEUs was 103.97% compared with 5.28% increase plan and over 2011.
Sales: 502,962,272,978 VND gain 115.62% and increase 13.51% increase
compared to 2011. Profit before tax 201,207,923,357 VND gain 143.72%
and increase 21.97% compared to 2011.
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5. Financial situation
Targets 2011 2012
%
Up
down
Total assets 699.092.684.156 789.281.178.343 11,3
Net sales 402.616.672.584 475.244.373.615 11,8
Net profit from business
activities157.489.265.002 200.831.099.069 27,5
Profit 7.477.167.924 394.824.288 (94,72)
Profit before tax 164.966.432.926 201.207.923.357 21,97
Profit after tax 151.613.829.681 188.054.786.012 24,03
The rate of profit to pay
dividends47,71% 30,29% (36,51)
Targets 2011 2012 Notes
1. Liquidity ratios+ Current ratio
+ Quick ratio:
3,74
3,69
2,98
2,91
2. Capital structure ratio+ Debt/Total assets:
+ Debt/ Equity:
0,36
0,57
0,31
0,44
3. Asset utilizer+ Inventory turnover:
+ Net sales/Total assets:
40,44
0,57
31,54
0,60
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4. Profitability ratiosProfit after tax/ Net sales:
Profit after tax/ Equity:
Profit before tax/ Revenue:
Business activities/ Net sales:
0,38
0,34
0,21
0,39
0,40
0,34
0,24
0,42
6. Shareholder structure
a. Stock
- Total number of shares: 20,000,000 shares
- Type of outstanding shares: Common Shares
- Charter: The charter application form for companies listed on the
Stock Exchange
b. Shareholder Structure:
- Currently DVP shareholders individuals and shareholder
organizations in Vietnam accounted for 90.46%. Foreign investors
accounted for 9.54%
- The biggest individual shareholder is Nguyen Thi Thanh who holds
557,450 (makes up 2.79%)
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- The biggest organization shareholder in Vietnam is Haiphong port
Company holds 10,200,000 (makes up 51%)
- The biggest foreign investor is Mutual Fund Elite (Non- Ucits) holds
979,000 (make up 4.90%)
III. THE PROCESS OF CALCULATE COST OF CAPITALIn fact, the cost of capital is used for financing a business. To DVP,
because the business is financed through a combination of debt and equity,
which is why its overall cost of capital is calculated from a weighted
average of all capital sources (WACC):
WACC = xE*kE+ xD*kD*(1-t)
Haiphong Port
51%
MFE
5%
Nguyen Thi
Thanh
3%
Other foreign
ones
2%
Other domesticones
39%
DVP's Shareholder Structure in 2012
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In which, kE, kD are the cost of equity and the cost of debt respectively. xE
and xD are the portion of equity and debt respectively of the total finance
sources. Last one is t, it is tax rate.
Based on the formula above, of course, if we want to have the cost of capital,
we must find out the cost of equity and the cost of debt. That is why the
following parts will determine that process.
1.Cost of equi tyTo calculate DVPs cost of equity, we have two methods, such as direct
one and indirect one. Each of them has its advantages and disadvantages, so
we will do both of them to compare.
a.Di rect method (CAPM model)The CAPM model is usually used to estimate the firms cost of equity in
the world, so we also use this model in this case DVP. According to the
CAPM model, the cost of equity depends on three elements like risk free
rate, market risk premium and beta.
kDVP = rf+ DVP*(E[rM]rf)
kDVP is the cost of equity of DVP
rfis risk free rate
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DVPis the DVPs beta
E[rM] is the expected market return
E[rM]rfis the market risk premium
In fact, each element above is calculated based on the current and
historical data. Moreover, DVPs share is listed on financial Vietnam
market, so to get the cost of equity we have to base on the market data.
a-1. Risk free rate
Everyone knows the risk-free rate is a return rate that t the investors can
definitely get for a certain investment period. For an investment to be risk-
free, it has to have no default risk and no reinvestment risk. The 3-month T-
bill seems to be quite suitable because it has no default risk and liquidity risk
(the safest). But the investing time is too short (the rate of return will change
over time and not stable) so the reinvestment risk will appear. Therefore, to
DVP the one year period is suitable term to analyze. As a result, the yield to
maturity of government one year bond up to September 2013 is considered
as the risk-free rate. We can get the risk-free rate of 6.60% in Appendix 3
Another choice is the interest rate of interbank, but when we look at the
historical data of interest rate of interbank, we can see that the gaps between
every year can be very high and it looks not good when we use it to be the Rf.
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a-2. Market risk premium (MRP)
To calculate the MRP in Vietnam, we need to know the average expected
return from market E[rm] (the VN-Index return) and the average one-year
bond return. By using the historical data, we can easily find the MRP in
Vietnam is 10.09% by subtracting average annually return on one-year bond
by average return on VN-Index from 2001 to 2013 (September). (Appendix
3).Remember to use the average historical data to compute the E[rm] and rf
because the data in a year cannot reflect well the long history of these two
indicators (The MRP in some years can be negative and positive in another
year but commonly, it must be positive). Sometimes we will be confused
between using average or geometric. Despite the geometric method is more
reliable than the average method, but the average one is usually more
popular, and to DVP we also calculate the MRP by the average method.
a-3. Beta
The beta of DVP reflects the correlation between the return on DVPs
stock and VN-Index. The most popular method to calculate the beta is using
the historical data to estimate the regression line. By doing this, in Appendix
4, we can get a regression line with the function below:
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y is DVPs stock return; x is VN-Index return
In fact, slope of the line is about 0.31, this is the estimated beta of
DVP from December 2009 to September 2013. Because DVP is listed on the
market at the end of 2009, so in this situation we use the data from that point
to September 2013. Moreover R square is about 0.078 and range of beta
(with confidence level of 95%) is (-0.014; 0.626).
From a-1, a-2 and a-3 we have:
- The risk-free rate rfis 6.6% per year- The market risk premium is 10.09%- The beta of DVP = 0.31
Therefore, the DVPs cost of equity is:
kDVP = rf+ DVP(E[rM] rf) = 6.6% + 0.31* 10.09% = 9.68%
y = 0.3056x + 0.0173
R = 0.0776
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%DVP
Return
VN-Index Return
Series1Linear (Series1)
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b.I ndir ect methodIn many cases, direct method is the perfect method to calculate the cost
of equity, especially when that stock market and company have the long
historical data. With a young stock market like Vietnam, the data that can be
used to calculate is not significant to ensure the quality of calculation. The
indirect method will be the best alternative for us to calculate the cost of
equity based on the standard measurement like US market.
The basic principle is that the cost of equity of the firm operating in
Vietnam is considered equal to the cost of equity of the similar firm
operating in US plus country risk premium. Moreover, meanwhile the cost
of equity of the firm operating in Vietnam is accounted in Vietnam Dong
(VND), the cost of equity of the similar firm operating in US is accounted in
dollars (US dollars $), that is why we should add a foreign exchange risk
premium.
E[RDVP]VN= E[Rsimilar firm]
US+ RPc+ RPe
E[RDVP
]VNis the estimated return rate of DVP operating in Vietnam
E[Rsimilar firm]US is the the estimated return rate of a similar firm to DVP
operating in US
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RPcis the country risk premium
RPeis the exchange risk premium
As a result, the indirect method requires three elements: the cost of equity
of a similar firm in US, the country risk premium and the exchange risk
premium.
b-1 Cost of equity of a similar firm in US
In this case, we use the CAPM model to calculate based on the historical
data. We have:
The US risk-free rate in September 2013 is about 0.13%. The return on US market is equal to average return on US market
from 1928 to 2012 is 11.26%
The US risk-free rate return is equal to average return on T-bondfrom 1928 to 2012 is 5.38%
So the market risk premium = 11.26% - 5.38% = 5.88%About the beta, because it is so difficult to find a particular US company
which is similar to DVP, so we use the unleveraged beta in US to convert
into the leveraged beta. Besides in 2012 the revenue structure of DVP is 97%
of the maritime and 3% of the warehouse, transport good service, the
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maritime sector make up a large portion, so we assume that unleveraged beta
of DVP is the unleveraged beta of the maritime in US in 2012 of 0.535
(Appendix 5). Therefore the leveraged beta applied for DVP is
( ) Therefore we calculate the cost of equity of a similar firm in US:
E[Rsimilar firm]US
= rf+ * MRP = 0.13% + 0.713*5.88% = 4.32%b-2. Country risk premium
The country risk premium reflects the risk difference between Vietnam
market and US market. In fact the rating of Vietnam based on Moody
measures is currently B1. The current country risk premium in September
2013 is 5.5%.
b-3 Exchange risk premium
The exchange risk premium is the difference between the return on the
stock which is invested by domestic currency and the return on the other
which is invested by UD dollars. In this case, we can get the exchange risk
premium by subtracting the deposite rate by US dollars from the deposite
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rate by VND of a commercial bank or average of some commercial bank in
Vietnam.
In October 10th 2013, the deposite rate by VND and USD with one year
term of Vietcombank is 7.5% and 2.5% respectively. As a result, the
exchange risk premium is 7.25%.
From b-1, b-2 and b-3 we have:
- The cost of equity of a similar firm in US is 4.32%- The country risk premium is 5.5%- The exchange risk premium is 7.25%
Therefore, the DVPs cost of equity is:
kDVP = E[RDVP]
VN
= E[Rsimilar fi rm]
US
+ RPc+ RPe= 4.32% + 5.5% + 7.25%
= 17.07%
2.Cost of debta.Di rect methodAccording to the financial statement in 2012, interest payment of DVP in
2012 was 8,978,313,867 VND.
- Total debt at the end 2012: 193,705353,771 VND- Total debt at beginning 2012: 192,374,796,390 VND
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Average debt in 2012:
Cost of debt = interest payment / average debt
Cost of debt in this company is calculated unreliable. The reason
maybe average debt is not exactly because of changes in the period. If
calculating the cost of debt based on total debt at the beginning, the cost of
debt
b.I ndir ect method
Cost of debt = risk free rate +Vietnam country default spread + company
default spread
Companies in countries with low bond ratings and high default risk
might bear the burden of country default risk, especially if they are smaller
or have all of their revenues within the country. In particular, we assume all
of DVPs revenues in US, thus it does not affect by Vietnam country default
spread. With DVP, we use the 1-year bond to estimate risk free rate (2.97%).
And we have the company default spread is 0.40% (Appendix 6). Therefore,
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Cost of debt = risk free rate + company default spread = 2.97% + 0.4% =
3.37%
ConclusionAccording to two methods to calculate cost of debt, they are unreliable.
To have better measures, we use cost of debt base on market at that time.
Interest rate when making debt of commercial banks in 2013 for high credit
rate companies (DVP) is 12%.
3.Calculate tax rate for DVP- Earnings before tax of DVP in 2012: 201,207,923,357 VND- Tax expense of DVP in 2012: 13,153,137,345 VND
Therefore, effective tax rate of DVP in 2012:
Effective tax rate of DVP in 2012 was lower than policy. However, in long-
term, investors expect DVP will be taxed with tax rate 25%. Thus, it is more
reasonable when tax rate = 25%.
4.Cost of capital
a.Di rect method
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- Market value of Equity
,000In this case, we use the market value of equity to calculate WACC, with the
price market at the end 2012.
- Book value of debt = total debt at the end 2012= 242,695,139,849VND
- Cost of equity (direct method) = 9.68%- Marginal tax rate = 25%- Cost of debt = 12%
b.I ndir ect method
- Market value of equity = 880,000,000,000 VND- Book value of debt = 242,695,139,849 VND- Cost of equity (indirect method) = 17.07%- Cost of debt = 12%
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- Marginal tax rate = 25%
WACC (direct method) = 9.54%WACC (indirect method) = 15.33%
IV. COMMENT ABOUT THE COST OF CAPITAL IN TWOMETHODS
1.Di rect methodApplying Direct method in calculating Cost of equity and Cost of
debt seems to get different results from using Indirect method.
Lets start with calculating Cost of equity. The CAPM model, although
its considered to be one of the most popular ways to calculate Cost of
equity, still has its drawback.
As the CAPM calculation is:
kDVP = rf+ DVP*(E[rM]rf)
The model of CAPM, as it shows in the formula itself, focuses
systematical risks, this is also its characteristic. CAPM uses the historical
data to predict how the values fluctuate in the future. The calculations to find
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out the value of CAPM are hard to be done accurately because they depend
on all other accurate values of other investment (to calculate the Beta); the
fact that investors are not able to borrow the money from the bank with the
risk-free rate, so the return investors ask could be higher to compensate for
their loans from borrowing money from banks. Furthermore, it ignores other
unsystematic risks, there is no way to find out exactly all risk that can
happen in the future and especially, risks directly relates to particular
industry, such as nature disaster, the giving-notice of some core managers
CAPM provides a good view and reasonable prediction, but only in
the perfect market, not in the reality. So investors should take CAPM as a
basis and add as more information and data as they can to keep the CAPMs
value closer to be true.
Depends on the industry that the company is taking part in, the
unsystematic risk can be slightly affecting the CAPMs prediction or not. If
the industry is affected by many sensitive factors, the unsystematic should
be concerned more.
With Direct method in calculating Cost of debt, it exposes the
factor that leads Cost of debt bias from the true.
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The average debts calculated by plus the year-beginning and the year-
end value of debt, and then divide it by 2 to get the average value. As the
value of debt may fluctuate in the year, taking it average value by
calculating this way does not really make sense and may lead to the getting
untrue value.
Investors should not put all their trust on this way of Cost of debt
calculating.
2.I ndir ect methodAt first, lets discuss how indirect method works in calculating Cost of
equity.
The idea of this method is choose company which works in the same
industry for a long time and have stable movements to be a basis to calculate
the value of a company which has less true and precise data to be evaluated.
This company is usually chosen from strong and stable economies such as in
the US. The formula for this Indirect method is:
E[RDVP]VN= E[Rsimilar firm]
US+ RPc+ RPe
How they are calculated is shown above, in the previous part. It can
be simply explained as the sum of 1 value calculated by applying CAPM
model (but with more stable movements), 1 value for country risk
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compensation and 1 value of exchange rate premium. This way of
calculating gives more precise look and evaluation of a company, especially
in Vietnam, when the economy of us is still developing and not really stable.
3.ConclusionIn fact, the interest rate affects directly the cost of debt, so the cost of
capital is influenced too. In recession period, the government tries to use
monetary policy to control the interest rate. This was a situation from 2011
to 2012. If in 2011 almost the firms in Vietnam had to pay an interest rate of
18%, up to 2012 this rate was just about 11% - 12%. This supported the firm
to increase investment. DVP was not an exception. From 2011 to 2012, DVP
had an increase in long-term debt to invest heavily in fixed asset, for figure
their fixed asset increased by over 133 billion VND for tangible ones and
about 2 billion VND for intangible VND. Besides, DVP utilized these assets
effectively, increased the firm growth rate to 24.04% in 2012, in comparison
with only 7.09% in 2011. Despite the interest rate decreased, DVPs interest
expense increased because of the increase in book value of debt, for sure that
its cost of debt increased in 2012 and the cost of capital would not avoid
being affected. However, we cannot be sure that an increase in the interest
rate will make the cost of capital increase and vice versa, because the cost of
capital is still depended on the cost of equity.
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V. REFERENCEShttp://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-
vu.chn
http://www.credittrends.com/blog/2010/05/17/inflation-and-cost-of-capital/
http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/vietnam.php
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Damodaran Book on Investment Valuation, 2ndEdition
Simon BenningaFinancial Modeling
Financial Statement and Annual Report of DVP in 2008 to 2012
VI. APPENDICESAttach file DVP_VFM_GROUP2.xsl
http://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-vu.chnhttp://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-vu.chnhttp://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-vu.chnhttp://www.credittrends.com/blog/2010/05/17/inflation-and-cost-of-capital/http://www.credittrends.com/blog/2010/05/17/inflation-and-cost-of-capital/http://www.credittrends.com/blog/2010/05/17/inflation-and-cost-of-capital/http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/vietnam.phphttp://asianbondsonline.adb.org/vietnam.phphttp://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/vietnam.phphttp://www.credittrends.com/blog/2010/05/17/inflation-and-cost-of-capital/http://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-vu.chnhttp://s.cafef.vn/hose/DVP-cong-ty-co-phan-dau-tu-va-phat-trien-cang-dinh-vu.chn