Dus ka Dhamaka - Top 10 Technical Pickscontent.karvyonline.com/contents/DiwaliSamwat2071.pdfDus ka...

E iti h t f d th t l b id i d i S t 2070 I th l t S&P 500 hEquities have outperformed other asset classes by a wide margin during Samvat 2070. In the last one year, S&P 500 hasgenerated over 12%, and Gold in US dollar terms has generated a negative return of 3 5 %, while Brent crude oil tankedgenerated over 12%, and Gold in US dollar terms has generated a negative return of 3.5 %, while Brent crude oil tankedlower by over 18%. Expectations over recovery in the global economy coupled with continuation of the near zero interestp prate policy by US federal reserve has led to steady inflow of funds into emerging market equities. Improving economic

diti i th E d J h d b d th ti t f th it k t Th iti ti t i thconditions in the Euro zone and Japan had buoyed the sentiments for the equity markets. The positive sentiments in theglobal equity markets had led to steady inflow of foreign funds into the emerging markets, especially India onglobal equity markets had led to steady inflow of foreign funds into the emerging markets, especially India onexpectations over the formation of a stable government. The expectations were duly rewarded as markets rallied sharplyafter the BJP formed the government under the leadership of Mr. Modi. Overall, Nifty has generated close to 30% return

th l t th b t f i th th t l lik MCX G ld d MCX Sil hi hover the last one year or so, thereby outperforming the other asset classes like MCX Gold and MCX Silver whichgenerated a negative return of 5% and 18% respectively during the said period. In the next one year, we expect the abovegenerated a negative return of 5% and 18% respectively during the said period. In the next one year, we expect the abovementioned positive factors to continue stimulating the rally in the Indian equity markets. Strong leadership at the centralgovernment led by Mr. Modi continues to drive the GDP growth towards higher rates of over 6% and attract the foreigni t t S ft i d il i t b $90/b l th l b l f t i t d t l th C t A tinvestments. Softening crude oil prices to sub $90/barrel on the global front is expected to lower the Current AccountDeficit as well as Fiscal Deficit.Deficit as well as Fiscal Deficit.

A stronger financial muscle with the government along with a decline in inflation is likely to present the case for lowerg g g y pinterest rates as well. In a more conducive environment for the business, corporate earnings are expected to grow byb t 18% th t With th t d th i t i ti d i fl f f d fabout 18% over the next one year or so. With the expected growth in corporate earnings, continued inflow of funds fromFII's , who have pumped in over Rs 1,00,000 cr during the last one year and renewed interest from the domesticFII s , who have pumped in over Rs 1,00,000 cr during the last one year and renewed interest from the domesticinvestors, we expect equities to outperform all other asset classes in the next one year. We recommend our valuableclients to stay invested in equities.

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Dus ka Dhamaka - Top 10 Technical PicksDus ka Dhamaka - Top 10 Technical PicksDus ka Dhamaka - Top 10 Technical PicksTGT 1 TGT 2

STOCK SECTOR CMP* AVG SL TGT 1 TGT 1

% RETURNTGT 2

TGT 2 % RETURN

Type% RETURN % RETURN

ASIAN PAINTS FMCG 640.10 575 544 775 21% 825 29%

BHARAT FORGEAUTO

752 15 630 590 930 24% 1010 34%BHARAT FORGE ANCILLARIES

752.15 630 590 930 24% 1010 34%

DIVIS LABS PHARMA 1705.20 1540 1415 2050 20% 2200 29%

GRASIM CEMENT 3279.40 3090 2749 4000 22% 4250 30%GRASIM CEMENT 3279.40 3090 2749 4000 22% 4250 30%

LARSEN & TOUBRO INFRA 1452.90 1365 1244 1705 17% 1880 29%

POWER GRID POWER 134.10 117 106 172 28% 185 38%POWER GRID POWER 134.10 117 106 172 28% 185 38%

RELIANCE OIL & GAS 937.90 845 759 1175 25% 1250 33%

TATA STEEL METALS 447.55 395 374 550 23% 602 35%TATA STEEL METALS 447.55 395 374 550 23% 602 35%

TCS IT 2441.15 2270 2090 2825 16% 3050 25%

YES BANK BANKING 598.30 528 489 750 25% 820 37%% %

l th b h 3*Closing as on 17th October 2014 **Time Frame: 9-12 months

ASIAN PAINTS | SL: 544 | TGT: 825 | TF:9-12 months

T

ASIAN PAINTS | SL: 544 | TGT: 825 | TF:9 12 months

The monthly chart of Asian Paints clearly suggests formation of higher

tops and higher bottoms along a secular uptrend which indicates that thetops and higher bottoms along a secular uptrend which indicates that theuptrend in the stock can continue further towards the targets of Rs.801-p g840 levels, considering the strong grip of the bulls in the stock, over thenext one year or so Strong volume based buying has also beennext one year or so. Strong volume based buying has also beenwitnessed along the stock’s journey from Rs.70 in March, 2009 to its alltime high of Rs.680.95 in September, 2014. The ADX indicator, aftermarking a low of 31 83 in May 2014 furiously bounced back towardsmarking a low of 31.83 in May, 2014, furiously bounced back towardshigher levels and is currently measured at 36.74.

Thi d l t l l t th t th t th f th tThis development clearly suggests that the strength of the currentuptrend has intensified over the past 6 months. Therefore, we expect thep p pstock to zoom past projected resistance levels around Rs.729-769 andmove towards our target levels thereafter Asian paints is our preferredmove towards our target levels thereafter. Asian paints is our preferredpick in the entire FMCG space, as we feel that the company’s extensiveexpansion in the recent past can give a huge boost to the stock.

ww wwww FUNDAMENTAL FACTSwwMarket cap (Rs cr) 61974

F l (R ) 1Face value (Rs) 1

EPS (Rs) 12 7EPS (Rs) 12.7

P/E (x) 50.8Our take : The recent sharp drop in prices of crude oil will boost the margins for the

i f d W d b i th t k t t l l ithPrice / Book value (x) 15.3

A d il di l (M )

company, going forward. We recommend buying the stock at current levels, with a oneyear perspective and average it on dips around Rs.575, with a stop loss placed below

Avg daily trading vol. (Mn.) 1.02

y p p g p p pRs.544 for potential upside targets of Rs.775-825 within the stipulated timeframe.

5

BHARAT FORGE | SL: 590 | TGT: 1010 | TF:9-12 months

B

BHARAT FORGE | SL: 590 | TGT: 1010 | TF:9 12 months

Bharat Forge is one of our preferred picks in the Auto-Ancillary space.

The stock has been in a structural uptrend making higher highs andThe stock has been in a structural uptrend making higher highs andhigher lows on Monthly charts. From a low of Rs.185 levels, in the monthg yof August, 2013, the stock has witnessed humongous rally to make freshlife time high of Rs 933 and gained more than 400% in 14 monthslife time high of Rs.933 and gained more than 400% in 14 months.Recently, stock witnessed a much awaited profit taking move whichdragged the counter lower by more than 20% from higher levels.However the recent correction is being utilized as a buying opportunityHowever, the recent correction is being utilized as a buying opportunityby market participants at levels around Rs.700-750 levels as indicated byh h lsharp spurt in the volumes.

The technical indicator 14-period RSI on weekly charts is placed wellp y pabove 60-level, re-affirming secular bull trend in the counter. Thisoverall development provides an excellent opportunity for the investorsoverall development provides an excellent opportunity for the investorsto enter the stock from long term perspective. We expect the stock toreclaim its life time highs and make fresh highs in the months to come.


F l (R )Face value (Rs) 2

EPS (Rs) 21 41EPS (Rs) 21.41

P/E (x) 22.8Our take : Traders can buy the stock at current levels and any dip towards Rs.630 levels / ( ) 22.8

Price / Book value (x) 6.7

y y pshould be utilized to average the stock, for an initial target of Rs.930 and next target ofRs 1010 levels with a stop loss below Rs 590 levels

Avg daily trading vol. (Mn.) 1.01Rs.1010 levels, with a stop loss below Rs.590 levels.

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DIVIS LABS | SL: 1415 | TGT: 2200 | TF:9-12 months

Divis Labs has given a whopping 42% return YTD and 65% over the

DIVIS LABS | SL: 1415 | TGT: 2200 | TF:9 12 months

Divis Labs has given a whopping 42% return YTD and 65% over the

past 52 weeks. Divis Labs is one of the top performers over last one yearp p p yin Pharmaceuticals space. The stock is in a strong uptrend on monthlycharts and is consistently making higher highs and higher lows oncharts and is consistently making higher highs and higher lows onweekly charts as well. The ADX reading on monthly chart is way abovethe all important 25 mark and is currently trading near 41 , indicating thestrong uptrend The stock has respected 100 & 200 Day moving averagesstrong uptrend. The stock has respected 100 & 200 Day moving averagesduring corrections on weekly charts suggesting good accumulation ond O hl h l f h k ldips. On monthly charts, over last four years, the stock consistentlyrallied by trading in the upper band of Bollinger band indicating therallied by trading in the upper band of Bollinger band indicating thefierce bullishness in the counter.

The Parabolic SAR on monthly chart is trading below the priceThe Parabolic SAR on monthly chart is trading below the price,suggesting buying is likely to remain intact in the stock. ExtendingFibonacci analysis from the major swing low of Rs. 905.25 to its previousswing high of Rs 1455 we expect the stock can move to Rs 2100 levelsswing high of Rs.1455, we expect the stock can move to Rs. 2100 levels(161.8%). We expect the targets likely to be achieved in the comingmonths.


Face value (Rs) 2

EPS (Rs) 58 26EPS (Rs) 58.26

P/E (x) 30 3Our take : Traders can buy the stock at current levels and average the stock at of Rs.1540 P/E (x) 30.3


y gwith a stop loss placed below of Rs. 1415 for potential upside targets of Rs.2050 andRs 2200


Rs.2200.

7

GRASIM | SL: 2749 | TGT: 4250 | TF:9-12 months

GRASIM has given a stellar return of 26% on a YTD basis after the

GRASIM | SL: 2749 | TGT: 4250 | TF:9 12 months

GRASIM has given a stellar return of 26% on a YTD basis, after the

stock has rallied from the low of Rs 824 in October 2008 to a high of Rsg3789 in June 2014, which is around 372% in a span of 6 years.Considering the ADX the reading on monthly chart is currently at 22Considering the ADX , the reading on monthly chart is currently at 22and is steeply trending upwards, indicating the strengthening of currentuptrend. The stock has retraced around 38.2% of its entire rally fromlower level of Rs 2105 5 to all time high of Rs 3789lower level of Rs.2105.5 to all time high of Rs.3789.

h k h d l b l kl h hThe stock had a classic two bar reversal pattern on a weekly chart withfollow on buying at levels around Rs 3173, indicating strong support atfollow on buying at levels around Rs 3173, indicating strong support atthat level. The stock has been consolidating in the range of Rs 3173-Rs3789 l t f th I l t th kl h t3789 over last four months. In last seven months on weekly chart,Grasim has consistently been trading above the median of the Bollingery g gband, indicating its overall positivity and suggesting dips towardsmedian should be utilized as buying opportunity RSI on monthly chartsmedian should be utilized as buying opportunity. RSI on monthly chartsis hovering around 59, just above its signal line, while the MACD line ong j gmonthly chart is trading in the positive territory and has given a bullishcrossover in June indicating the bullish momentum likely to continue incrossover in June, indicating the bullish momentum likely to continue inthe counter.

ww wwww FUNDAMENTAL FACTSwwFUNDAMENTAL FACTS

Market cap (Rs cr) 31171p ( )

Face value (Rs) 10

EPS (Rs) 225.61

P/E (x) 15Our take : Investors are recommended to buy Grasim at current levels and average the

P/E (x) 15

Price / Book value (x) 1 44

y gstock at Rs.3090 with a stop loss placed below Rs. 2749 for potential upside targets ofRs 4000 and Rs 4250 Price / Book value (x) 1.44


Rs.4000 and Rs.4250.

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LARSEN & TOUBRO | SL: 1244 | TGT: 1880 | TF:9-12 monthsLARSEN & TOUBRO | SL: 1244 | TGT: 1880 | TF:9 12 months

LL&T started an impulsive leg from the low of Rs.677 towards Rs.1776

levels made in mid of June’14 (which was also 162% price extension oflevels made in mid of June’14, (which was also 162% price extension ofearlier leg), post which the stock entered into a phase of correction.g) p p

In this correction prices have almost retraced 50% of move from low ofRs 955 to high of Rs 1776, where it is forming a base from last few weeksRs.955 to high of Rs.1776, where it is forming a base from last few weeks.In recent past stock prices found support from its 200-DEMA which is

l l d R 1393 l l d b d b k i di i lcurrently placed at Rs.1393 levels, and bounced back, indicating longterm investors are accumulating the stock. Even in the phase ofg pcorrection momentum oscillator 14-period RSI managed to hold near

ilib i l l l l i di ti b ll i t l d t ll iequilibrium level, clearly indicating bulls are in control and not allowingmomentum dissipate.p

L&T remained bellwether for quite a long time now and likely to remainleader in the sector The stock is trading in a corrective mode which is anleader in the sector. The stock is trading in a corrective mode, which is anideal time for medium to long term investors to accumulate in a

dstaggered manner.


l ( )Face value (Rs) 2

EPS (Rs) 52 97EPS (Rs) 52.97

P/E (x) 27.2Our take : We recommend traders to buy the stock at current levels and any dip towards / ( ) 27.2


y y pRs.1365 levels should be utilized to average the stock, for initial target of Rs.1705 levels,and eventually we expect the stock to move towards Rs 1880 levels with a stop loss placed

Avg daily trading vol. (Mn.) 1.81and eventually we expect the stock to move towards Rs.1880 levels, with a stop loss placedbelow Rs.1244 levels.

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POWER GRID | SL: 106 | TGT: 185 | TF:9-12 months

P

POWER GRID | SL: 106 | TGT: 185 | TF:9 12 months

Power Grid is one of our top picks in the power space. As seen in the

chart stock prices traded in sideways mode for more than four years inchart, stock prices traded in sideways mode for more than four years inthe range of Rs.30 (Rs.90-120). The stock has given a break-out of theg ( ) grange during the month of May this year and rallied to make six yearshigh of Rs 147 levels Thereafter the stock has been consolidating in thehigh of Rs.147 levels. Thereafter, the stock has been consolidating in therange of Rs.125 to Rs.145 levels in the last couple of months.

Th k h b h ldi h i d i h h k i hThe stock has been holding on to the gains despite the other stocks in thepower space, giving up all the gains in the last couple month, clearlyp p , g g p g p , ysuggesting the strength in the stock .The stock is expected to movehi h t d th t t l l if th thigher towards the target levels if the government announces anypositive measure for power sector.p p

On the other hand, the stock is trading well above its short to mediumt i hi h t th t di b i tili dterm moving averages which suggests that dips are being utilized asbuying opportunities. On monthly chart the indicators and oscillatorsy g pp ysuggest the strength in stock and expected to head towards its life timehigh in the coming monthshigh in the coming months.


Face value (Rs) 10

EPS (R )EPS (Rs) 9.47

P/E (x) 14 4

Our take : We recommend long term investors to buy the stock at current levels and anydi t d R 117 h ld b tili d t th t k f i iti l t t f R 172 P/E (x) 14.4


dip towards Rs.117 should be utilized to average the stock, for an initial target of Rs.172levels, and eventually stock may move higher towards the second target of Rs.185 levels, ( )


, y y g g ,keeping stop loss below Rs.106 levels.

10

RELIANCE | SL: 759 | TGT: 1250 | TF:9-12 months

R

RELIANCE | SL: 759 | TGT: 1250 | TF:9 12 months

Reliance Industries in past few years has remained a laggard and has

underperformed the broader market As depicted in chart from mid ofunderperformed the broader market. As depicted in chart, from mid of2009 till June 2011, stock prices maintained a price range of Rs. 950-1150,p p gpost which prices declined further and remained in the range of Rs.900-700 until few months back Reliance started its fresh impulse leg from700, until few months back. Reliance started its fresh impulse leg fromthe lows of Rs.793 in end of Feb’14 towards Rs.1145 levels made in midMay’14, post which prices entered into a phase of correction.

Currently stock price is hovering marginally below its 200-DEMA andy p g g y50-DEMA, however it took support from its 62% (Rs.927) GoldenFib i R ti f b ti d l ti t t fFibonacci Ratio of above mentioned leg, suggesting strong support forprices around Rs.900-930 zone.p

On the weekly technical setup, the 14-period RSI managed to hold above40 levels on pullbacks formed a firm base in bullish territory exhibiting40 levels on pullbacks, formed a firm base in bullish territory exhibitingunderlying strength in prices.


F l (R )Face value (Rs) 10

EPS (Rs) 76 55EPS (Rs) 76.55

P/E (x) 12.6Our take : Investors can accumulate stock at current levels, and any dip towards Rs.845levels should be utilized to average the stock for initial target of Rs 1175 levels and / ( ) 12.6


levels should be utilized to average the stock, for initial target of Rs.1175 levels, andeventually expect that the stock will move towards Rs.1250 levels in the coming 9-12

Avg daily trading vol. (Mn.) 3.03months. Place a stop loss below Rs.759 levels.

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TATA STEEL | SL: 374 | TGT: 602 | TF:9-12 months

A

TATA STEEL | SL: 374 | TGT: 602 | TF:9 12 months

After making a multi year low of Rs.195.30 to a recent high of Rs.579.90,

Tata Steel has been consolidating around its all the important movingTata Steel has been consolidating around its all the important movingaverages, its 21EMA and 50EMA on monthly charts which are pegged atg y p ggRs 422 and Rs 427 respectively. The larger time frame charts of the stockare still suggesting that uptrend is intact in the stockare still suggesting that uptrend is intact in the stock.

The stock started its uptrend from the low of Rs 195.30 made in theh f A 2013 hi h f R 579 90 i hi h l l fmonth of August 2013, to test a high of Rs.579.90, its highest level after

August,2011. The stock had made an all time high of Rs.957 levels duringg , g gearly January 2008 and after which it corrected heavily and clocked a lowf R 137 50 d i th f N b 2008of Rs 137.50 made in month of November 2008.

By plotting the Fibonacci Retracement from the all time high to a low of137.50, the stock is trading above its 38.2% retracement at Rs 450.50. Thestock is making cycles of higher highs and higher lows on monthly chartstock is making cycles of higher highs and higher lows on monthly chart,clearly indicating the recent correction in the stock in the last couple of

h i d b i imonth is good buying opportunity.

ww wwww FUNDAMENTAL FACTSwwU C S

Market cap (Rs cr) 44292p

Face value (Rs) 10

( )EPS (Rs) 35.19

P/E (x) 16 4

Our take : Investors, can accumulate the stock around current levels with a stop lossplaced below Rs 374 for targets Rs 550 and Rs 602 in one year of time frame P/E (x) 16.4


placed below Rs. 374 for targets Rs.550 and Rs.602 in one year of time frame.

/ ( ) 0.70


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TCS | SL: 2090 | TGT: 3050 | TF:9-12 months

T

TCS | SL: 2090 | TGT: 3050 | TF:9 12 months

TCS has been witnessing a secular one sided rally from the low of Rs.

219 68 made during September 2009 to its life time high of Rs 2837 70219.68 made during September, 2009 , to its life time high of Rs. 2837.70during the current month. Bulls have been aggressively adding the stockg gg y gon minor corrections, clearly indicating the stock is in the grip of stronghands and is expected to continue its bull run over the next one year orhands and is expected to continue its bull run over the next one year orso. The Primary trend of the stock remains intact and any dips towardsRs. 2500 levels must be used as an opportunity to average the stock.

On the weekly charts, the stock is facing resistance around the Rs. 2800y , glevels which coincides with the 50% extension levels of its entire up

f th l f R 1999 50 t hi h f R 2614 35 th t thmove from the low of Rs. 1999.50 to a high of Rs. 2614.35 , then to thelow of Rs. 2430. Any breakout and sustenance above Rs.2800 levels, canytrigger a fresh round of buying towards Rs. 2898.52 (76.20%) and Rs.3044 85(100%)3044.85(100%).

Amongst the oscillators, the 14-month RSI is trading in the over-boughtg , g gterritory from a long time suggesting it to cool off in the near term whichshall be used as buying opportunity in the stockshall be used as buying opportunity in the stock.

ww wwww FUNDAMENTAL FACTSwwww FUNDAMENTAL FACTSwwMarket cap (Rs cr) 528700Market cap (Rs cr) 528700

Face value (Rs) 1

EPS (Rs) 104.02

P/E ( )

Our take : Traders are recommended to buy TCS around current levels and average thestock around Rs 2270 with a stop loss placed below Rs 2090 for potential upside targets of P/E (x) 25.9

Price / Book value (x) 9 48

stock around Rs. 2270 with a stop loss placed below Rs. 2090 for potential upside targets ofRs.2825-3050. Price / Book value (x) 9.48

Avg daily trading vol. (Mn.) 0.96g y g

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YES BANK | SL: 489 | TGT: 820 | TF:9-12 months

Y

YES BANK | SL: 489 | TGT: 820 | TF:9 12 months

Yes Bank has been consolidating a broad range of Rs. 525-600 levels for

the past few months The chart structure of the stock suggests that anythe past few months. The chart structure of the stock suggests that anybreakout of the said range on the upside would encourage bulls to takeg p gcharge over the counter and keep pulling it higher. The probable targetsfor the said move can be pegged at Rs 675 700 levelsfor the said move can be pegged at Rs. 675-700 levels.

Earlier, the stock had seen a steep fall from the levels of Rs. 547 to the, plows of Rs. 216 during the period of May-August 2013. High degree ofaccumulation was also seen at lower levels as the stock bounced backaccumulation was also seen at lower levels as the stock bounced backfrom those levels to retrace 100% of the fall.

On the weekly charts, the stock is currently trading around the Rs. 575levels being the 23.80% extension levels drawn from the low of Rs. 291.40levels being the 23.80% extension levels drawn from the low of Rs. 291.40to a high of Rs. 599 and then to a low of 502.20 levels. On the upside the

t l f ll t d th i t d R 692 l l b i thnext leg of rally can extend the gains towards Rs. 692 levels being the61.80% extension levels. Amongst oscillators, the 14-month RSI, with ag , ,reading of 64.34 is trading in the comfortable zone above the signal line.


F l (R ) 10Face value (Rs) 10

EPS (Rs) 44 74EPS (Rs) 44.74

P/E (x) 13.1Our take : Investors may buy Yes Bank around Rs. 600 and average the stock at Rs.528with a stop loss placed below Rs 489 for potential upside targets of Rs 750 820


A d il di l (M )

with a stop loss placed below Rs. 489 for potential upside targets of Rs.750-820.


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KARVY RESEARCH DESK – STOCK BROKINGKARVY RESEARCH DESK – STOCK BROKING

JK Jain [email protected] +91-9618087899JK Jain [email protected] +91-9618087899

DisclaimerDisclaimer

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should beThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should beconstrued as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of anconstrued as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of aninvestment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits andrisks of such an investment.Karvy Stock Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisionsrisks of such an investment.Karvy Stock Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisionsthat are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may notsubscribe to all the views expressed within. 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