Duncan Stewart - Digital Predictions
54
TMT Predictions. The Long View June 14, 2010
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Duncan Stewart presentation from BANFF/nextMEDIA 2010 - Digital Predictions
Transcript of Duncan Stewart - Digital Predictions
- 1. TMT Predictions.The Long View
June 14, 2010 - 2. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the
future."
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
1
Niels Bohr - 3. 1. All cool technologies dont succeed
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
2 - 4. 2. Everybody knows that one horse runs faster than another.
But which horse?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
3 - 5. 3. In other breaking news, the sun will rise in the
east
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
4 - 6. 4. Great technologytoo bad it violates the laws of
physics
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
5 - 7. How were different
Eight predictions
One, five, ten and never time frames
Pairs of:
Something important that most people expect to happenbut wont
Something important that most people dont expect to happenbut will
And two bonus fact checks (no perpetual motion machines)
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
6 - 8. Deloittes TMT predictions are now released in 58 countries
and expected to launch in 50+ cities in 2010. Predictions was first
published in 2001.
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The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia - 9. Smart phones: how to stay clever in a downturn
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
8 - 10. Disrupting the PC: The Rise of the Netbook
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
9 - 11. The mobile broadband accident in slow motion: traffic jams
on cellular networks
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
10 - 12. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
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The Long View from 2010 - 13. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual)
shelves
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
12 - 14. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
13 - 15. Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone net
tablets arrive
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
14 - 16.
- 17. $10 per year for printbut $29.95 for the iPad app?
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The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia - 18. The Goldilocks Device additive or substitute?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
17 - 19. 3D TV: objects may be further away than they appear
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
18 - 20. 3D TV falls flat
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
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$3,500.00 - 21. The dangers of too-literal translation
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
20 - 22. Lexicon plus grammar
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
21 - 23. Old style text-to-text translation (Babel Fish
edition)
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
22 - 24. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
23 - 25.
- 26. Natural tech monopolies?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
25 - 27. Naturally fragmented markets
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
26 - 28. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
27 - 29. Wrong question. Will there be a de facto standard mobile
OS?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
28 - 30. Not if these guys have anything to say about it!
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
29 - 31. Will 4G Solve the Congestion Problem?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
30 - 32. Lets talk about innovative disruption
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
31 - 33. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the
trend continues
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
32 - 34. 33
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia - 35. 34
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia - 36. Powerful tools
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
35 - 37. Unless
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
36 - 38. But childs play with a 1970s calculator
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
37 - 39. Public key cryptography
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
38
Diffie, Hellman & Merkle
(no idea what happened to Merkle)
Rivest, Shamir & Adleman
(aka RSA) - 40. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
39 - 41. Ugly beast, aint it?
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
40 - 42. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
41 - 43. Not that kind of flux capacitor
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
42 - 44. Poynting flux vector
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
43 - 45. Oh well, at least its stylish
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
44
60 microwatts @0.7V - 46. The power of piezo
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
45 - 47. The power of piezo
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
46 - 48. Harvested energy versus required energy
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
47
Volts x amps = watts
To fully charge the battery at left at 0.7V by 7 microwatts would take
581,428 hours, or
24,226 days, or
66.3 years* - 49. The mobile internet
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
48 - 50. The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff
NextMedia
49 - 51. Computing device market
Source: actuals IDC & Gartner, forecast Deloitte Canada
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The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia - 52. TMT Predictions customized events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry!
Email Duncan: [email protected]
The Long View - Deloitte Predictions - Banff NextMedia
51 - 53. Questions