DUBAI impact of finan crisis on July 17 2009 FINAL

8/7/2019 DUBAI impact of finan crisis on July 17 2009 FINAL

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Impact of the Financial Crisis

on Indian Migrant workers in theUAE

Presented by

Venu Rajamony, Consul General of India to Dubai

July 22, 2009


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Indians in UAE

Estimated around 1.5 million with 1.2 million in Dubai andNorthern Emirates

29.6 % of total population of 5.066 million people

Guesstimates Information available in public on UAEs 2005population census does not include nationality wise figures

Mostly from the South Indian states - Kerala, Tamil Nadu andAndhra Pradesh ( Estimate by Embassy based on informationprovided by Exchange houses, banks and school admissionstatistics )

Around 65% belong to blue collar category

Constitute 42.5% of the labor force in UAE

(Source: Media reports quoting National Human ResourceDevelopment and Employment Authority, 2008)


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UAE most important destination for

Indian workers

In 2008, UAE remained single most importantdestination for Indian workers

followed by Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait,Malaysia and Bahrain

Migration of workers monitored by the IndianProtector ofEmigrants rose 11.87 % in 2008 over

2007

Inflows have kept pace with the economic growthof UAE


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SN Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(upto

30.06.2009)

1 U. A. E. 175,262 194,412 254,774 312,695 349,827 66090

2 Saudi Arabia 123,522 99,879 134,059 195,437 228,406 151766

3 Qatar 16,325 50,222 76,324 88,483 82,937 23668

4 Oman 33,275 40,931 67,992 95,462 89,659 37632

5 Kuwait 52,064 39,124 47,449 48,467 35,562 24799

6 Bahrain 22,980 30,060 37,688 29,966 31,924 11227

All countries 474,960 548,853 676,912 809,453 8,48,601 Undercompilation

(Source: Protector General ofEmigrants, New Delhi. Figures only include Indians who have not completed

school education and who obtained clearance from the Protector ofEmigrants in India. Educated persons,

those who travel on visit visas to seek employment etc. are not included in these figures)


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% Variation in emmigration patterns

10.90%

22.70%

11.87%

23.30%

19.58%

4.87%

31%

15.55%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

%v

ariation

UAE

Total of all

countries


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Emmigration to UAE as a subset of total

349,827312,695

254,774194,412175,262

474960548853

676912

809453848601

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2,004 2005 2006 2007 2008

All other countries

UAE


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Amnesty of 2007

Federal Naturalization and Residency Department

No. of persons who left the country : 174,366

Persons who legalized their status : 95,000

Indians who availed Amnesty (Dubai & Abu Dhabi)

Indians who left UAE : 95,000

Indians who regularized their status : 45,000


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50,000 1,50,000 Indians are estimated to havereturned MOIAs statement in Parliament- airportfootfall

NORKA around 1100 Registered online

Exact numbers difficult to obtain, workers do notneed to report to Consulate orEmbassy beforethey return

Anecdotal accounts - number of people havereturned, many sent on leave, more likely incoming months as projects wind down

No signs of sudden exodus, slow flows back,outflows will continue but at reduced pace

Government of India closely monitoring thesituation

Impact of the Financial crisis


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Economic survey conducted by You Gov, anInternational Research Organization

Sample size 821 UAE residents of mixednationalities, period 1st to 7th July 2009

One in Ten report job loss, 58 % plan to stay on andlook for an another job in UAE

Hardest hit are construction and property sectors

59% report freeze in salary, 88% do not expect salaryhikes this year.

Out of the unemployed, 20% plan to return to homecountry,6%will look for job in another GCC countryand 8% plan to set up business in UAE

S ey Results- The National

Daily


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Informal Sector

First impact on labor in the informal

sector

Number of people without proper

travel documents approaching theConsulate shot up in Jan- Feb 2009


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Informal Sector

*Emergency Certificates are documents issued in lieu of missing

passports that permits one way travel to India

Emer enc ert f cate e n

188 1983 8

198

6 8

35

1 3

369

61485

1365

1

15

5

Jan Feb Mar pr May Jun Jul

ont

o

of

'

e

8

9


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Emergency Certificate issued in 200 &

200

Months 2008 2009

an 7

e 20

ar 200 7 2

Apr 0

ay 272 2

un 2

ul 2 7

Total 1645 6047


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Emergency Certificates issued in 2008-2009

State-wise Comparison

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

AP 2008

AP 2009

TN 2008

TN 2009

Kerala 2008

Kerala 2009UP 2008

UP 2009

Bihar 2008

Bihar 2009

Punjab 2008

Punjab 2009

Others 2008

Others 2009


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La our approvals

Approvals by the Consulate for group

recruitment witnessed steep fall in Jan/Feb

2009

Marginal pick up in March/ April, flat sincethen

Spikes in group recruitments generally

coincide with commencements of major

projects

Minor fall in individual recruitment

between 2008 and 2009


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Comparision between Group Recruitments and

Individual recruitments for the years 2008 and

2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan Feb. Mar. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Recruitments

2009

Recruitments

2008

EMI 2009

EMI 2008


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Comparison of Group and Individual

Recruitments for the years 200 -200

Month 2008 2009 2008 2009

an 2 2 22 7

e . 22 77 7

ar. 2

Apr 00 7

ay 7 2 2

un 20 7 7

ul 7 2

Aug 7 0

Sept 2 7

Oct 20 0

Nov 7 7

Dec 2

Total 14161 1615 2330 836


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Transfer certificates

Survey of Indian schools reveal

that issue of TCs increased for

some, decreased for others

No discernable trend

Fees more important factor than

recession


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Transfer Certificates issued by various schools in

Dubai and Northern Emirates

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Indian

Scho

ol,RAK

OurO

wnIndia

nSch

ool,DX

B

New

Indian

Scho

ol,RAK

New

Indian

Mod

elSc

hool,DX

B

GulfA

sianS

chool,DX

B

Indian

High

Scho

ol,DX

B

Delhi

Priva

teSc

hool,DX

B

GulfM

odelSc

hool,DX

B

OurO

wnEngli

shHigh

Scho

ol,DXB

Sharj

ahIndia

nSch

ool,Shj

TheM

illennium

Scho

ol,DX

B

Delhi

Priva

teSc

hool,S

hj

TheC

entra

lSch

ool,Dx

b

GulfI

ndian

High

Scho

ol,DXB

New

Indian

School,

2007-2008

2008-2009


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Transfer Certificates issued y various

schools in Du ai and Northern Emirates

Name of School 2007-2008 2008-2009

Indian School, RAK 7

Our Own Indian School, DXB 0 2

New Indian School, RAK

New Indian odel School, DXB 7 7

Gulf Asian School, DXB 0 00

Indian High School, DXB 0

Delhi Private School, DXB 2

Gulf odel School, DXB 22 2 2

Our Own English High School, DXB 7 0

Sharjah Indian School, Shj 7

The illennium School, DXB 7 72

Delhi Private School, Shj 0 0

The Central School, Dx 7

GulfIndian High School, DXB 0

New Indian School, 2

Total 07 0


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La our complaints

Marginal decrease in numbers;1290complaints received between Januaryand June 2009 as against 1570 for the

same period in 2008 Monthly break up of labour complaints

for 2009: 241(Jan), 249 (Feb), 216 (Mar),179 (Apr), 169 (May), 236 (Jun)

Number evenly distributed around thepro-rata figure of 224 in 2008


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Facts and Figures

No. of Labour Complaints received by Consulate

76 0

1408

1972

2693

0

50 0

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

No.ofComp

2005 2006 20082007


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Cases of acute distress

Some instances of workers abandonedwithout food or shelter

Being addressed by Embassy/consulate using Indian CommunityWelfare Fund

Indian Community Welfare Committeeon stand by


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UAE Official igures

6,62,000 new labour Visas issued betweenOctober 2008 and March 2009

Only 4,05,000 cancellations during the same

period (Source: Ministry of Labour) Senior Government functionaries acknowledge

effect on real estate and construction sector

Point to recovery in retail, tourism, hospitalityindustries

Companies confirm fresh recruitment, especiallyin Abu Dhabi


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New Projects under way

Masdar City

Saadiyat Island

Dubai Metro

Dredging and reclamation of Khalifa Port,Abu Dhabi

Dubai Airport 3rd Concourse

New Dubai International Airport

Many other projects slated for completionbetween 2012 and 2015

Public spending given fillip by stimuluspackages, USD 70 bn infusion


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Lead employers prognosis

73725 strong workforce, 77 nationalities; 71% = 51623Indians.

Normal attrition rate in 2008 - 11%; 2009 till date, marginallyhigher at 13%

Recently recruited 2000 personnel for airport third

concourse project Outlook: 5000 workers required for same project in the next

few years; 900 for group company for new order in janitorialservices, opportunities for Indian drivers

Huge opportunities reported in Qatar, KSA, Libya and AbuDhabi

Only change - conservatism in recruitment: recruit againstawarded projects as against anticipated project earlier

Changes in metro and coastal India, people no longer eagerto migrate - GCC jobs still attractive in rural India


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A reality check Unemployment at 4 % in 2008 (3.45% in 2007)

source: Ministry ofEconomy survey

12.7% - 40,000 qualified Emiratis jobless

Debate over presence of foreigners diluting nationalidentity

Efforts at Demographic Balancing will affect India

Discussions on ban for workers after six years

Permanent residency for migrants not under

consideration


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Opportunities in India more

important Pace of Indias economic growth and rise in salaries

in India more important in long term than recession

Reverse migration had begun even before recession

Attractive salaries and opportunities for

professionals and knowledge workers in India Rising cost of living in UAE, especially Dubai -

Cost of accommodation, services, education

Efforts of both Governments to curb illegalrecruitment

Boom in Real

Estate, Construction, Retail sectors inIndia- areas in which Indians in UAE have skills and

experience Many Indian Companies have beenrecruiting in the Gulf in recent years

India has shortage of professionals and skilledmanpower in many sectors and regions


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Return of igrants- some

suggestions

Need for better data base

Guild data bases can be created for meeting

existing supply deficits in specialized labour

markets in India

Extension components to central schemes

like NREG and state initiatives like

Kumdumbasri can be explored

Entrepreneurship training/Literacy/Computer

skills/English language skills while in UAE


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Measures to deal with the crisis by the

Embassy/Consulate

Monitoring situation

Facilitating quick return to India of workers whowant to return and dont have the means

Close Interaction with major employers of Indianworkers, UAE Ministry of Labour / Departments ofImmigration and Police

Financial assistance to individuals for food, shelter,medical expenses and repatriation to India through

ICWF Coordination with MOIA / authorities in the sending

States

Intervention with employers, Banks etc to resolvedisputes


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Comprehensive measures already inplace can deal with any situation

Indian Government and Missions playing pro-

active role for some time now


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Measures undertaken by Embassy/ Consulate in

UAE

y Indian Community Welfare Committee

y Counseling for persons prone todepression/ suicide

y Free legal counseling

y Hotline/Shelter for women in distress

y Organization of free medical camps

y Visits to labor camps, hospitals, prisons


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Indian workers abroad must be able

to live and work with dignity

General consensus that Indian workersshould stay abroad only if :

Rights are protected Can live and work with dignity

Assured of reasonable wages

- Workers who lose jobs and cannotfind alternative employment shouldreturn

- Government will support their return

and re-integration


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Indias advantages

will remain

y India large reservoir of high quality humanresources in immediate neighborhood

y Workers have reputation of being competent,hardworking, sincere and law abiding

y Cultural compatibility/ Language skills


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Two way flows will become more

common

y Indias GDP anticipated to grow by 6-7%

despite the financial crisis

y Sectors with most promise Infrastructure,

real estate, retail and hospitality, areas whereUAE has made a mark


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Summing Up

Migration from India has been a natural andspontaneous flow in response to economic need ofhost countries in the Gulf

Financial crisis has had some impact but no cause forpanic or alarm

UAE leadership and Government engaged in task ofre-energizing their economy- growth expected to pickup

Migration from India to UAE will continue, albeit atlower pace


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Thank you

DUBAI impact of finan crisis on July 17 2009 FINAL

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