DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland with uncertainty propagation · DSM for soil erosion risk in...
Transcript of DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland with uncertainty propagation · DSM for soil erosion risk in...
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DSM for soil erosion risk in Scotland with uncertainty propagation
Laura Poggio, Alessandro Gimona, Jim McLeod, Marie Castellazzi, Andrea Baggio Compagnucci, Justin Irvine
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Brief outline
Erosion modelling
Digital Soil Mapping approach for input data :
soil, climate, land management
Correction for organic soils
Uncertainty propagation
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R factor K factorC factor P factor
Land useVegetation MorphologyClimate Data Soil Data
K factorpeatsLS factor
RUSLEK * R * C * P * LS
modified from Panagos et al, 2015+
expert knowledge rules for peats (Lilly et al, 2002)
Soil OM
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Input point data Points input data interpolated with a scorpan-kriging flavour: Soil properties: e.g. Organic soils Soil C stocks Input for K factor
Soil C stocks (1 m depth, kg/m2)
K Factor
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Input point dataPoints input data interpolated with a scorpan-kriging flavour: Soil properties: e.g. Organic soils Soil C stocks Input for K factor
Soil C stocks (1 m depth, kg/m2)
K Factor
R Factor
Climate station data Inputs for R factor
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Tested covariates
Snow
NDWI
EVI
Elevation
• MODIS• LANDSAT• Sentinel 1 and 2
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Validation and GAM plotsK factor Organic soils R factor
xy *** *** ***
Elevation --- ** *
Slope * * ---
TWI --- --- ---
Soil Organic matter *** NA ---
EVI *** *** ---
NDWI *** * ---
Snow --- --- ---
Productivity * * ---
LST *** ** ---
Seasonality vegetation ** ** ---
Radar (Sentinel 1) *** *** *
Bioclimatic variables --- --- ***
Explained deviance 26.6% 60.5% 35.1%
RMSE 0.01 0.1 0.05
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Input spatial data
C & P & S Factors
Spatial layers derived from basic GIS analysis:
C and P factorsRS, land use integration
S(heep) factor Downscale of district data for sheep and cowsDeer grazing(McLeod et al,2014,Unpublished)
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Erodibility for Organic soilsExpert knowledge rules (Lilly et al, 2002)
Difference between
RUSLE without
organic soils
correction and with
organic soils
correction
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Uncertainty propagation
1. Simulations from each of input factor interpolations with
summary statistics : median, quantiles a lot of
combinations (10^3) ^ 5
This can be simplified with e.g. Latin Hypercube Sampling
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Uncertainty propagation
1. Simulations from each of input factor interpolations with
summary statistics : median, quantiles a lot of
combinations (10^3) ^ 5
This can be simplified with e.g. Latin Hypercube Sampling
1. Bayesian approach: e.g. Bayesian Belief Networks for risk
modelling output is a probability distribution of risk
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High erosion risk Low erosion risk
Probability distribution of erosion risk
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Thank you for your attention
This work was funded by the ScottishGovernment Environment, Land use andRural Stewardship research programme.