DSD-INT 2015 - Developing an operational hydrologic forecast system using EPS and Satellite Data -...
Transcript of DSD-INT 2015 - Developing an operational hydrologic forecast system using EPS and Satellite Data -...
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Gökçen Uysal1, Bulut Akkol1, Cansaran Ertaş1, Cihan Çoşkun1, Arda Şorman1, Aynur Şensoy1, Dirk Schwanenberg 2
1 Anado lu Un i vers i ty , Esk i şeh i r , Tu rkey 2 Un i vers i ty o f Du i sburg -Essen , Germany
DEVELOPING AN OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC FORECAST
SYSTEM USING EPS AND
SATELLITE DATA
IN MOUNTAINOUS BASINS OF
TURKEY
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Between Asia and Europe,
Turkey is a high-altitude country with over 25 river
basins,
including the trans-boundary Tigris and
Euphrates rivers.
GEOLOGY AND TOPOGRAPHY OF TURKEY (1)
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GEOLOGY AND TOPOGRAPHY OF TURKEY (2)
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SNOW POTENTIAL OF TURKEY
NOAA Web Site – www.noaa.gov
Hypsometric mean elevation is about 1130 m.
Snow is major component in the mountanious Eastern Part.
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HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL OF TURKEY
DSİ, 2012 report
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HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT OF TURKEY (1)
* https://www.hydropower.org/country-profiles/turkey ** IHA 2015 Hydropower status report, https://www.hydropower.org/
Turkey remains one of Europe’s leading markets for future hydropower development…
Turkey has plans for hydropower development over the coming decade with a total installed electric power capacity of
2002 32 GW 2014 64 GW 2023 100 GW
(with 30 per cent of electricity generation coming from renewables*).
In early 2015, the Turkish Government announced it would allocate USD 16 billion to hydro development until 2018 as part of its Tenth Development Plan**.
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Hydropower development
In 2003,
In recent years,
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT OF TURKEY (2)
will be further supported by Turkey’s interconnections into the European grid and potential for further linkages east into Asia.
Turkey liberalized its energy market and embarked on
a process of privatizing existing assets.
international private companies have made major
investments in the country.
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Considering the geographic location of Turkey and
hydroelectric power potential, our R&D activities as well
as the future operational implementation will provide;
scientific outcomes,
economic benefits,
water resources benefits
also for downstream
stakeholders: flood mitigation,
irrigation, hydropower…
MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH
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KARASU (A PILOT BASIN)
Keban, Karakaya, Atatürk etc. large dams are located at the downstream of the basin
60–70% of the total runoff
volume originates during
snowmelt period….
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Keban Dam
Karakaya Dam
Atatürk Dam
INSTALLED CAPACITY: 1 330 MW
ENERGY PRODUCTION: 6 000 GWh/year
INSTALLED CAPACITY : 1 800 MW
ENERGY PRODUCTION : 7 354 GWh/year
INSTALLED CAPACITY : 2 400 MW
ENERGY PRODUCTION : 8 900 GWh/year
Birecik Dam
Karkamış Dam
INSTALLED CAPACITY : 189 MW
ENERGY PRODUCTION : 652 GWh/year
CASCADE DAMS IN EUPHRATES RIVER
INSTALLED CAPACITY : 672 MW
ENERGY PRODUCTION: 2 516 GWh/year
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In 2004, flood risk occurred due to sudden snow melt.
At the time, there was no real-time forecasting system.
Governmental agencies decided to (pre-)release additional 2,000 m3/s over 10 days from the most upstream reservoir through the cascade.
Post-event evaluation showed that too much water was released and lost for other objectives such as irrigation or hydropower.
FLOOD EVENT IN 2004 ??
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Karasu Basin is one of the pilot basins selected for various;
NATIONAL PROJECTS
(DPT – State Planning Organization,
TUBITAK – The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey),
INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
(NATO SfP-NATO Science for Peace,
EUMETSAT H-SAF – European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, Satellite Application Facilities on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management).
PREVIOUS EFFORTS
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The ongoing projects and execution periods;
- Developing an Operational Hydrologic Forecast System using EPS and Satellite Data in Mountainous Euphrates and Seyhan Basins, TUBITAK Project, Oct 2013 - Dec 2015.
- Implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System, Anadolu University Scientific Research Project (1307F284), Dec 2013 – Dec 2015.
- Monitoring and Validation of Snow Components using Satellite and Automated Ground Stations, Anadolu University Scientific Research Project, Apr 2014 – Apr 2015.
ONGOING NATIONAL EFFORTS
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THROUGH INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/h-saf-and-hepex-workshops-coupled-hydrology
• TUBITAK project is extended through COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Project (ES1404) "A European network for a harmonised monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction" action,
• Moreover, preliminary DA results of H-SAF products (H-10, H-12 SCA and SWE) in cooperation with Duisburg-Essen University for Karasu pilot results are presented at the HSAF HEPEX WORKSHOP.
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SCOPE & INNOVATION
It is aimed to deploy an operational hydrologic
forecast system in snow dominated mountainous
headwater basins in Turkey.
For the deterministic and probabilistic flow forecasts,
numerical weather predictions (WRF, ECMWF-EPS,
etc.) force hydrological models.
The main motivation and most novel part of this work
is the exploitation of ensemble forecasts for the first
time in Turkey within an operational hydrologic
forecasting system.
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FLOW CHART PROJECT
FLOW CHART
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Elevation zones
The Upper Euphrates Basin (Karasu) The main land-cover types are pasture, cultivated land and bareland.
Elevation range (m)
Area (km2)
Hypsometric Mean Elevation (m)
Slope (%)
Karasu 1125-3487 10275 1983 19.24
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RECENT EXTENTIONS TO NEW BASINS
Seyhan
Basin
Euphrates
Basin
MODIS satellite image February 2012 (white areas indicate snow cover)
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SEYHAN BASIN HAS DEVELOPING HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL
ex: water structures located in Seyhan Basin, Göksu River
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CONTRIBUTIONS
Anadolu University
University of
Duisburg-Essen
Institut Royal Météorologique
de Belgique
State Hydraulic
Works
Turkish State
Meteorological Service
(TSMS)
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MONITORING
Runoff for Upper Euphrates Basin
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1-Feb
15-Feb
29-Feb
14-M
ar
28-M
ar
11-Apr
25-Apr
9-M
ay
23-M
ay
6-Jun
20-Jun
4-Jul
18-Jul
1-Aug
Dis
char
ge (
m3
/s)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Meteorological & SGS Point & SnoTel Stations
EUPHRATES OBSERVATION NETWORK
FP ID River & SGS Elevation
(m)
Basin
Area(km2) Obs. Period
E21A019 Karasu - Kemah 1123 10350 1953 -
E21A022 Murat - Tutak 1552 5882 1953 -
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FIELD WORK
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1-DAY LEAD TIME ACCURACY OF WRF RELATED TO GROUND STATIONS
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EPS DATA FOR PROJECT CATCHMENTS
ECMWF produced 28 km/grid resolution (T639/N320) EPS data Total prec and mean air temp EPS data 6 x 10 pixels for Karasu Catc.,
4 x 6 pixels for Murat Catc. and 4 x 5 pixels for Seyhan Catch.
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ENSEMBLE VERIFICATION SYSTEM (EVS) RESULTS
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SNOW DEPLETION CURVES (SDC)
Upper Euphrates SDC (MODIS after cloud removal)
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HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalans)
SRM (Snowmelt-Runoff Model )
HYDROLOGICAL MODELS (HBV & SRM)
(Lindströmet al., 1997) (Martinec et al., 2008)
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HBV
Good at continuous modeling
More parameters
Low response to instantaneous melting
Does not require SDC (output)
SRM
Good at melting period
Less parameters
Fast response to instantaneous melting
Requires SDC (input)
WHY MULTI-MODELS ?
Through SRM Development
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SRM DEVELOPMENT IN RTC-TOOLS
Model Inputs : for each zone, 1. Daily total precipitation 2. Daily average temperature 3. Daily snow covered area (Depletion curve) Model parameters (cr, cs, tcrit, RCA…)
Qn+1= [cSn* an(Tn+ Δ Tn) Sn+ cRnPn] * (A · 10000 / 86400) * (1-kn+1) + Qnkn+1
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KARASU SRM MODELING
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Ensemble Streamflows are developed for three
different basins (Karasu, Murat, Çukurkışla,
Kilicmehmet), using two different models for the
2011 melting period.
The next results are presented every 10 days
although the forecast is available daily.
Ensemble Streamflows are compared with
simulations.
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
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UNDER DELFT-FEWS PLATFORM (WITHOUT DATA ASSIMILATION AND OUTPUT CORRECTION)
HBV
SRM
Spagetti plot
Quartiles
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PERFORMANCE COMPARISON
HBV
SRM
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ADDED VALUE OF FEWS PLATFORM
Import Data Module ( in particular for EPS and satellite data),
Grid processing (basin averages etc.),
Forecast Handling (pre- and post processing,
administration, storage, analysis, export)
Easy link with EVS for ensemble analysis,
Data Assimilation (embedding of MHE and several Kalman
Filters via OpenDA and RTC-Tools in progress),
Potential future use as operational platform (suitable to
transfer knowhow to governmental agencies)…
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CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
Streamflow forecasting accounting snow accumulation and melt is a major topic for Turkey due to flooding and hydropower
Flood early warning may decrease inundation risk and related damages based on forecasts to take the right action
Flow forecasts assist the short-term operation of reservoirs and HEPP and increase their economic value
Potential for improvement in Numerical Weather Predictions (higher resolution, bias correction, etc.)
Data Assimilation and probabilistic forecasting are necessary tool to issue accurate and robust forecasts (further collaboration in H-SAF with Deltares and University of Duisburg-Essen on various DA approaches)
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CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK (2)
HBV and SRM models perform OK, but may have potential for improvement (further collaboration with Federal Institute of Hydrology, Germany and University of Duisburg-Essen).
Further work will also focus on the short-term management of the HEPP by the use of forecasts and predictive control techniques
Interdisciplinary work brings together staff from the government, private sector, academia providing an environment for sharing knowledge and creating beneficial results for all members.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
This study is funded by
113Y075 TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) and
BAP 113Y075 (Scientific Research Project) of Anadolu University, Turkey.