COASTAL ECOLOGICAL AND

GEOMORPHOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND

PREDICTION SYSTEM

Delft User Days

November 4, 2015

Katelyn Costanza, M.S., CFM

Ehab Meselhe, Ph.D., P.E.

Daniel Twigt, Deltares

OPPORTUNITIES

Ability to refine projections based on

real time monitoring and predictions.

Adaptive management of diversions

operation

Proactive measures to mitigate impacts to coastal communities

Improve models and current state of knowledge based on continual observation and assessment

Water Institute Forecast System 2

OBJECTIVE

• System provides real-time forecast for spatial variation and

point time-series

– Water level

– Salinity

– Water temperature

• Run various operational plans in real time for Davis Pond

and Caernarvon Fresh Water Diversions

Water Institute Forecast System 3

OBJECTIVE

Water Institute Forecast System 4

SYSTEM

• Built upon Open Source Flood Early Warning

System (FEWS)

• Full functionality of Community Hydrologic

Prediction System (CHPS) developed by

NWS/Deltares

• Water Institute Delft 3D Models are utilized for real

time applications

Water Institute Forecast System 5

SYSTEM

Back to Overview

Atmospheric

Forecast

Model

Ingested

Real Time

Observations

River Forecast

Model

Gulf Forecast Model

INSTITUTE FORECAST SYSTEM

Past Future

Forecast Performance Assessment

& Correction Period

7-day Forecast Window

Now (Real-time Data)

Time

Sam

ple

Mod

el O

utpu

t INSTITUTE FORECAST SYSTEM

Water Institute Forecast System 8

OPERATIONAL SETUP

Institute Forecast System

Water Institute Forecast System 9

10

Mississippi River

Gulf and Lake Pontchartrain Drainages

Davis Pond and Caernarvon Outfall

Observed Forecast Adjusted 8/28/2015

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INPUTS

Atmospheric

HINDCAST/FORECAST

OUTPUT

Time-series Gridded Longitudinal

Water Institute Forecast System 17

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

Time – Series Output

FORECASTED OUTPUTS

Gridded Output – Water Level

FORECASTED OUTPUTS

Gridded Output - Salinity

FORECASTED OUTPUTS

Gridded Output – Water Temperature

CONCLUSIONS

Model is ‘warming up’.

Model can incorporate multiple operational scenarios to generate a 7 day forecast

Currently model provides forecast for water level, salinity and temperature. Future phases will include sediment and nutrients

Highlights model aspects requiring improvement

Water Institute Forecast System 33

THANK YOU

301 NORTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000

BATON ROUGE, LA 70825

(225) 448-2813

WWW.THEWATERINSTITUTE.ORG

Ehab Meselhe | Director of Natural Systems Modeling and Monitoring

@TheH2OInstitute