Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012
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Drought Update; What’s in Store for
2012
LCRA Firm Water Customer MeetingJanuary 26, 2011
Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist
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Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)
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Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas
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2011 Texas Weather Statistics• 14.88 inches. Driest calendar year on
record! Previous record was 14.99 inches in 1917.
• Average Temperature 67.2 degrees. Second hottest year on record. Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in 1921.
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2011 Weather Records
• Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Victoria had their driest years on record.
• Austin, College Station, Midland, San Angelo and Brownsville had their hottest years on record
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Rainfall Since Oct. 1st
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Departure from Normal Since 10/1
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Unusual December Jet Stream Pattern
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Current Jet Stream
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Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña
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October 4, 2011
Drought Monitor Comparison
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Now In the Second Year of La Niña
January 6, 2011
January 23, 2012
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La Nina
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WetDry
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Temperature Precipitation
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NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook
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Drought Outlook through April
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Rain Needed to End the Drought in 3 Months
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Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months
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The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Colorado State Tropical Storm Outlook for 2012
THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance. (14-17 Storms)
THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)
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Take Home Points• No clear end in sight to the ongoing
drought; it could last well into 2012.• Conditions could easily get worse before
seeing any improvement.• Scattered rains will continue winter into
early spring but not heavy enough to significantly change the drought.
• Intense droughts are hard to break.• Some models trending toward El Nino this
fall.