Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge...

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Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin Rosalind Bark, PhD Kiyomi Morino, PhD

Transcript of Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge...

Page 1: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Drought Adaptation in the

Colorado River Basin Rosalind Bark, PhD

Kiyomi Morino, PhD

Page 2: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 3: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

• The watershed– 629,000 km2 ~ 1/12 of the continental US, much of it located in the semi-arid

Southwest – 30 million people– 800,000 ha irrigated land

• The river– 2,334 km– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California– 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow– average annual gauged (1906-2006) flow = 15 million acre feet (18,502 GL)– average annual paleo (A.D. 762-2005) flow = 14.5 maf (17,885 GL)

• Storage– 60 maf (74,000 GL)

1,000 af = 1.233 GL

Page 4: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 5: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Source: Reclamation

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

Volume (thousand GL)

Page 6: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
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366

350

335

320

305

290

274

Page 8: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
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Colorado

River

Simulation

System 2009 ‐

2026

Page 10: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

MEKO et al 2007 GRL

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft) 396

366

335

328

305

274

243

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Prob

(Tier

1 sh

ortag

e = -

333k

af, 41

1 GL)

Page 13: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

MEKO et al 2007 GRL

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

PROB

ABILI

TYINSTRUMENTAL

RECORD

1922 + 1944ENTITLEMENTS

15.4 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 (kGL)

2000-2009 AVERAGE

Page 15: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

13 MAF*13.5 MAF*14 MAF*14.5 MAF*15 MAF*15.5 MAF*16 MAF** +/- 0.25 MAF

16.0

16.7

17.3

17.9

18.5

19.1

19.7

Prob

(Tier

1 sh

ortag

e = -

333 k

af, 41

1 GL)

Page 16: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Pro

b(T

ier 3

sho

rtage

13 MAF*13.5 MAF*14 MAF*14.5 MAF*15 MAF*15.5 MAF*16 MAF** +/-

0.25 MAF

16.0

16.7

17.3

17.9

18.5

19.1

19.7

Prob

(Tier 3 shortage =  ‐50

0 kaf, 61

7 GL)

Page 17: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 18: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 19: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

• conservation mechanism for LB states• water stored in Lake Mead• available when 1075ft (328 m)< LM Elev <1145ft (349 m).• “Put”, “Take” & Maximum “Bankable”

Intentionally Created Surplus

Page 20: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

What is ICS?1. System Efficiency

– Contributions of capital to Secretary in return for water2. Extraordinary Conservation

– Fallowing– Canal lining– Desalination

3. Tributary Conservation– NV only

4. Imported

Page 21: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

How? How much?

• Underpinned by Forbearance Agreements and Delivery Agreements

• 5% cut for system– Not for System Efficiency ICS

Entity Annual credit Cumulative bankCA 400 kaf (493 GL) 1.5 maf (1,850 GL)AZ 100 kaf (123 GL) 300 kaf (370 GL)NV 125 kaf (154 GL) 300 kaf (370 GL)Lower Basin 625 kaf (771 GL) 2.1 maf (2,590 GL)

Page 22: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 23: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

• Drop 2*– Overages to MX average 70 kafy (86 GL/y)

• 8 kaf (9.9 GL) capacity reservoir• $172 mn ((Reclamation $9.2 mn, SNWA $114.8 mn, MWD and

CAWCD $28.6 mn)– SNWA 400 kaf (490 GL), max 40 kafy (49 GL/y) until 2036, MWD and

CAWCD 100 kaf (123 GL), max 65 kafy (80 GL/y) from 2016-2036

– $287/af ($233,696/GL)– After 2036 all water stays in Lake Mead

*http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/drop2/faqs.html

Page 24: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Source: Cohen et al (2001:28)

http://www.panoramio.com/photo/21061663

http://www.usbr.gov/lc/yuma/facilities/ydp/yao_ydp.html

Page 25: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

PROPOSED

Bypass flow108,000 afy

LBS7.5 mafy

Bypass flow108,000 afy

LBS7.5 mafy

Mexico1.5 mafy

Forbearance108,000 afy

CURRENT

Ciénega

9.108 mafy 9 mafy

Lake Mead

• Drops Lake Mead’s elevation by around 0.3 m per year* – since the completion of the bypass drain in 1977 ~ 10 m lower which is slightly more than

difference between involuntary shortage trigger elevation thresholds*Chuck Cullom, CAP at http://www.cap-az.com/phototour/index.cfm?videoID=95** 9.108 maf=11,235 GL, 9 maf=11,101 GL, 7.5 maf=9,251 GL,1.5 maf=1,850 GL, 108 kaf=133 GL

http://www.cap-az.com/phototour/index.cfm?videoID=95
Page 26: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

• Yuma Desalting Plant Pilot Run 2010-2011**– $22.86 mn (Reclamation $9.2 mn, MWD $10.94 mn, SNWA and

CAWCD $1.4 mn)– 29,154 af (36 GL)

• Reclamation 11,650 af (14.4 GL), MWD 13,880 af (17.1 GL), SNWA and CAWCD 1,735 af (2.1 GL)

• $807/af ($635,000/GL)

*http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/drop2/faqs.html**http://www.usbr.gov/lc/yuma/environmental_docs/ydp/fundingagr.pdf

Page 27: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Max Annual PUT (kaf)

Max Annual TAKE (kaf)

Max Bank ICS (kaf)

200 (247 GL) 200 (247 GL) 2,100 (2,590 GL)

625 (771 GL) 200 (247 GL) 2,100 (2,590 GL)

625 (771 GL) 200 (247 GL) 3,150 (3,885 GL)

3 Scenarios

Page 28: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

MEKO et al 2007 GRL

TAKEPUT

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

Page 29: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Maf (18.5 kGL)

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

No ICSP200T200m2100P625T200m2100P625T200m3150

[0.17]

Prob

 (Tier 1 shortage =  ‐33

3 kaf, 41

1 GL)

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Maf (17.3 kGL)

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

No ICSP200T200m2100P625T200m2100P625T200m3150

[0.16]Prob

 (Tier 1 shortage =  ‐33

3 kaf, 41

1 GL)

Page 31: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

No ICSP200T200m2100P625T200m2100P625T200m3150

Maf(17.3 kGL)

[0.06]

Prob

 (Tier 1 shortage =  ‐33

3 kaf, 41

1 GL)

Page 32: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
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30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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1866 -

188330.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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1867 -

188430.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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1868 -

188530.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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1869 -

188630.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft)

350

335

320

305

290

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Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft)

0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1

0 = Above 1075 ft1 = Below 1075 ft

350

335

320

305

290

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Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft)

0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1

0 = Above 1075 ft1 = Below 1075 ft

350

335

320

305

290

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Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft)

0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0

0 = Above 1075 ft1 = Below 1075 ft

350

335

320

305

290

Page 42: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Lake

Mea

d El

evat

ion

(ft)

0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0 = Above 1075 ft1 = Below 1075 ft

350

335

320

305

290

Page 43: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Seq

uenc

e

Year in Sequence(2009)

1(2026)

182… …16

…

1: 1-182: 2-19

17: 17-3418: 18-35

Page 44: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

Page 45: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

Page 46: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

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30.8

24.7

18.5

12.3

6.2

Page 48: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Tier 1 would reduce CAP ag acreage + banking in AZFear of Tier 3 shortage foster cooperation on ICS and other

new rules to avoid drying SNWA @ 1000’

1

0

Page 49: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 50: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

SRP Service Area

33,670 km2

Project Watershed

APA

CHE

NAVA

JO

COCONINOMOHAVE

MARICOPA

YAVAPAI

PINAL

PIMA

YUMA

LAPAZ

COCHISE

GRAHAM

GILA

GRE

ENLEE

SANTACRUZ

TUCSON

BISBEE

SAFFORDYUMA

PHOENIX

FLORENCE

GLOBE

CLIFTON

PRESCOTT

KINGMAN

FLAGSTAFF

HOLBROOK

ST. JOHNS

PAGE

PARKER

NOGALES

Phoenix water supplies

CAP Canal

Source: G. Garfin 16 April 2010  –

Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting –

Washington, DC

Page 51: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 52: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Synchronous droughts: CR/SVT?• Colorado River water through CAP and

Salt/Verde/Tonto water through Salt River Project

• SVT paleo streamflow reconstruction: 1521-1964 – Synchronous droughts and pluvials common – LL & HH

• Zero times HL, 2 times LH in reconstruction• 3 times HL, zero times LH in gauged record

– LL more frequent than HH• Multi-year droughts common

– 8 periods with a lower 11-year mean flow than 1950s or 2000s drought

• Drought of record late 1500s http://fp.arizona.edu/kkh/SRP/SRP.LTRR.Press.info.05.pdf

Page 53: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 54: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

• More research on climate change impacts and adaptation

• More experience with Interim Guidelines– ICS: MWD, SNWA and IID puts & takes in 2009/10– Tier 1 shortage? Reservoir rebalancing?

• AZ, NV and Upper Basin’s “hard landing”: increased urban water conservation/prices, reclaimed water, stormwater capture

• Creative water transfers (incl. desal) and water banking between states and with MX?– Long-term ag-urban/enviornment water transfers for dry year and climate

change supply reliability f) fallowing, crop mix, water conservation• CAP’s Acquisition, Development & Delivery (ADD) Water Project• Salton Sea, Ciénega de Santa Clara, LCRMSCP, Upper Basin

tributaries, the delta

Page 55: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 56: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

“Soft hard landing”• 2001 Interim Surplus Guidelines

– CA using AZ unused apportionment but new AZ Water Banking Authority– “Soft landing” i.e. CA’s “4.4 Plan” (5,427 GL) to wean itself off excess Colorado

River water by 2016• Missed deadline for negotiating the Quantification Settlement

Agreement by Dec 2002 “hard landing”– Department of Interior cut IID’s water order by 205 kaf (253 GL) and MWD’s by

536 kaf (661 GL)– IID vs. U.S. in Jan 2003

• Colorado River Water Delivery Agreement, August 2003– Agreement between CA water users on how to reduce Colorado River use

• Reduce ag use• Transfer ag water to M&I

– Sticking point was paying for environmental mitigation of Salton Sea f) < ag tail water

Page 57: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

MWD’s “hard landing”• Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD)

Consortium of 26 cities and water districts. Provides water to 19 million people in southern CA.– MWD entitlement to 4th priority CO R. water is 450,000 af (555

GL) delivered by CRA (capacity 1.25 maf (1,542 GL))

• Hard landing– Increased conservation e.g. canal lining and water recycling– Water exchange programs – Delta infrastructure options for CSP water– Long-term transfer of CR water from ag users in IID to M&I in

S.D.

Page 58: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

CA Water Transfer Agreements• MWD-PVID Land Management, Crop Rotation & Water Supply Program, Aug 2004: 35-year

– Up to 130,000 afa (160.4 GLa)– Capitalized participation rights ~$2.33 mn a year i.e. sign up payments, funding

community improvement program and program set up costs (excl. exercise costs) • Exercise costs of approx $600 per acre fallowed

• MWD-PVID Emergency Fallowing Program, 2009– 15% increase in fallowing in the valley to 44% of total acreage + 66,000 af (81 GL)– MWD pays $1,700/acre = $340/af ($688/ha and $/275,643GL)

• IID-SDCWA Water Conservation Agreement, Dec 1989, amended Oct 2003-Dec 2041– ~110,000 afa, (136 GLa) of which, 20,000 afa (25 GLa) to CVWD– Capitalized participation rights ~$2.27 mn a year

• ~$258/af ($209,164/GL)– Costs of various supplies for M&I customers are used to calculate a melded untreated

water rate– Includes Salton Sea mitigation

Page 59: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Water Transfers for the Environment• Reclamation and Yuma Mesa Irrigation and Drainage District

transfers 2008-2010– 3,500 af in 2008 and 2009 (4.3 GL) and 3,750 af (4.6 GL/y) in 2010

• 500 acres (202 ha) rising to 530 acres (214 ha) in 2010– $120/af ($97,285/GL) falling to $90/af ($72,964/GL) in 2010– Minimum continuous acreage 3 acres in 2010

• Intentional Created Mexican Allocation (ICMA)– Water for the delta

• 80 kafa (98.7 GLa)– 50 kafa (61.7 GLa) base flow– 200 kaf (246.7 GL) flood pulse every 5 years

• ⅓ : ⅓ : ⅓ – US : MX : NGOs

Page 60: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow
Page 61: Drought Adaptation in the Colorado River Basin– descends 3,658 m from its source to its discharge point at the Gulf of California – 15% of the catchment provides 85% of streamflow

Crop* 2002‐2006 2005‐2009** % Change

Durum Wheat  $41.12 $67.49 64.13

Alfalfa $106.22 $123.55 16.32

Upland Cotton* $(51.47) $(70.65) (37.26)

Head lettuce $1293.02 $1831.64 41.66

* Yuma area net crop returns**$/af consumptive use, updated spring 2010 from Teegerstrom, 2008 and from Jones, 2007)


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Streamflow Monitoring Workshopdnr.sc.gov/water/hydro/flowmap/docs/Streamflow... · Streamflow Monitoring Workshop Scott Harder - Hydrologist South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Streamflow Monitoring Workshopdnr.sc.gov/water/hydro/flowmap/docs/Streamflow... · Streamflow Monitoring Workshop Scott Harder - Hydrologist South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

Appendix B5 Supplemental Streamflow Analysisusbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/Technical Report B... · Appendix B5 — Supplemental Streamflow Analysis The streamflow

Appendix B5 Supplemental Streamflow Analysisusbr.gov/lc/region/programs/crbstudy/finalreport/Technical Report B... · Appendix B5 — Supplemental Streamflow Analysis The streamflow

The Martian Descends: The Poetry of Brey ten Breytenhach

The Martian Descends: The Poetry of Brey ten Breytenhach