Driving Partnership Potential In EU-China Trade and

Investment

Vice Chairman, Sino-Europe United Investment Corporation

Victor Gao

Sixth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table EU China Economic and Finance Forum

Beijing, 17 November 2014

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ChinIreland!

Victor GaoSixth EU-Asia Top Economist Round Table

EU-China Economic and Finance Forum

“Driving Partnership Potential

In EU-China Trade and Investment”

November17th, 2014

The Capital Club, Beijing

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How Big Is China’s Economy?

Official GDP = US$9.31 trillionPPP = US$ 13.37 trillion

China’s GDP as % of US GDP:• China (Mainland):

– Official GDP: 55.68%– PPP: 79.96%

• Greater China: (Mainland + HK + Macau + Taiwan)– Official GDP: 60.52%– PPP: 88.07%

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When Will China Surpass USA?

• Already!– Published on October 8, 2014, by Financial Times

– China’s GDP (ppp) of US$17.6 Trillion in 2014, vs US at US$17.4 Trillion;

• Before the end of 2014 (based on PPP).– Published on April 30, 2014, by the International

Comparison Program of the World Bank;

• By 2021.– Published on August 22, 2014, by the Economist’s website.

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The Chinese Perspective

• It depends on which benchmarks to use;• It will not be a single event;• It will be a process;

• It will be an accumulation of surpassing in many categories and by many different measurements, some of which have already taken place;

• It is just a matter of time;

• It is just when it will happen, not whether it will happen;

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“China is getting increasingly closer to the center of the world.”

--- President Xi Jinping of China

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The expectation of the surpassing to take place, and sooner rather later, already forms an important part of that transition itself.

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The Next Big Question

• It is time to look beyond the surpassing itself.

• It is time to ask and look at the next big question.

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How Much Bigger Than USA?

• Once the Chinese economy surpasses the US, it will not be the end of the story.

• The Chinese economy is expected to continue to grow and increase the lead ahead of the US economy in the coming decades;

• How much bigger will the Chinese economy be eventually, relative to the US economy?

• While there is no consensus about this, it may not be inconceivable that the Chinese economy will eventually stabilize at approximately twice the size of the US economy;

• That would mean that, on a per capita basis, the Chinese economy will be approximately half of the US economy.

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China’s GDP at its Maturity

• At its maturity, China’s GDP may be:

• China = 2 USA; or

• China = USA + EU;

• On a per capita basis, however, China will be approximately half of USA.

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China in the Coming Decade

• The largest economy in the world.• Leading champion of free trade.• Rmb becomes a reserve currency. China to settle major

imports in Rmb.• The new US visa policy for China will be followed by many

other countries.• The USA may export oil and gas to China.

• China will have greater energy efficiency and less pollution.

• China will have greater democracy and transparency, and better governance and rule of law than today.

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The Chinese Way of Success

• The Chinese way of success will enable multiple stakeholders to win;

• Using Alibaba’s IPO as an example:– The largest IPO in human history;– The largest e-commerce and e-finance player in China;– Largest shareholders: (1) Japan’s Softbank; (2)

Yahoo!; (3) public shareholders, mostly in the US;– Benefits to China: (1) promoting e-commerce and e-

finance; (2) creating more jobs; (3) encouraging innovation; (4) globalization: China’s integration with the rest of the world.

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The Importance of Ireland

• Ireland in its own way;

• Ireland as part of the EU;

• Ireland as part of the Euro zone;

• Ireland as the ancestral home of the large and important Irish diasporas;

• Ireland as a bridge to UK, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

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ChinIreland!

• Ireland in Chinese as “ 爱尔兰” literally means “Love Your Land”!

• Putting “China” and “Ireland” together, we get “ChinIreland”!

• No pairs of two countries in Chinese sound better than “ChinIreland”, or “ 中爱两国”。

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ChinIreland! 中爱两国• Set up China-Ireland Friendship Association (and

Ireland-China Friendship Association);• Become the most hassle-free European country for

China;• Become a preferred jurisdiction of incorporation

for China’s globalization drive;• Become a traffic and logistics hub for China’s

trade reaching into the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean;

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Brand Ireland

• Agriculture; • Education; • Fishery; • High-tech; • Tourism; • Chinese investment in multiple sectors; • Become a key Chinese wealth destination; • Gateway to Europe; EU; UK; USA; Canada; Australia;

New Zealand, etc.; • Bring China to Ireland’s National Asset Management

Agency (NAMA); etc.

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ChinIreland!

中爱两国！

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Thank you!

Victor Z. Gao, Esq.

Vice Chairman, Sino-Europe United Investment Corporation

Email: gaovictor@aya.yale.edu

Mobile: (86) 1390 136 1250